Market Insights: Monday, November 9th, 2026

Market Overview
Wall Street came roaring back Monday, shaking off last week's losses as the AI trade stayed front and center ahead of a busy week of earnings and inflation data. The Dow jumped 2.2%, the S&P 500 gained 2.3%, and the Nasdaq climbed about 2.7% after all three indexes finished in the red last week. The rally came despite fresh drama at Nvidia (NVDA), where the board is opening an investigation into CEO Jensen Huang over an affair. Several outlets reported last week that the US believes Huang had a romantic relationship with Alice Huang, a Chinese businesswoman allegedly recruited to spy for China's intelligence agency. In a memo to employees, Huang admitted to infidelity, writing, "I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry." Nvidia trimmed losses but still fell 4%, while the broader market brushed off the headlines and kept recovering from last Thursday's bruising sell-off. Falling energy prices helped too, with Brent crude futures extending last week's slide to around $91 per barrel. Bitcoin didn't join the party, though, tumbling below $75,000 with a 1% drop that extended its steep slide since Democrats swept Congress in the midterms. Meanwhile, space stocks ripped for a second straight session as SpaceX (SPCX) and seven other companies lined up for NASA lunar delivery work worth up to $10 billion, with Wall Street suddenly buying into the agency's push for a moon base.

The biggest wave of third-quarter earnings is behind us, but a few weeks of reporting remain, with Hims and Hers (HIMS), Rocket Lab (RKLB), and Monday.com (MNDY) among Monday's names. Hims and Hers sank 10% ahead of its after-the-bell report as short interest hovered around 23%, even after Friday's deal with Eli Lilly (LLY) to expand access to Lilly's Zepbound and Foundayo GLP-1 drugs on its platform. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $0.15 per share after two straight quarterly losses, on revenue of $892.7 million. Monday's economic calendar was light, with wholesale trade data as the main release, but Tuesday brings October CPI. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a 0.3% monthly rise, well below September's 0.6%, with core inflation seen at 0.2%, down from 0.3%. The report likely won't include annual figures since the Bureau of Labor Statistics couldn't publish full October 2025 data due to last year's government shutdown, though some economists estimate inflation picked up slightly year-over-year. Over in Texas, Elon Musk appeared to confirm groundbreaking on Tesla's $10 billion solar cell factory in Fort Bend County, replying "Project Crystal Sun" to a popular blogger's photos of the site. Tesla told the Texas Comptroller it plans a $10.1 billion capital investment and hopes to be operational by the first quarter of 2029. The news lands as questions swirl about Musk's Texas ties after wins by Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa and Senator-elect James Talarico, whose race saw Musk spend hundreds of millions backing former Attorney General Ken Paxton's failed bid. SpaceX has already sunk more than $3 billion into Starbase and nearby Starship infrastructure, Tesla has reported over $1 billion in construction costs for its Austin Gigafactory, and the two companies laid out a $16.8 billion "Terafab" chip plant plan in Grimes County back in August. If everything pans out, Musk's infrastructure bets in the Lone Star State could top $30 billion.

SPY Performance
SPY opened at $741.95, a solid gap up from yesterday's close of $735.36. That put the open just shy of yesterday's high of $742.21, so buyers came in with a much different attitude than they had all week. The session low of $741.09 came early, a quick dip just under the opening print and below yesterday's high, but sellers couldn't do anything with it. From there the bulls took full control and drove SPY to a session high of $755.42. That push blew right through the first resistance at $752.41, the level that had looked out of reach just one day earlier. SPY finished at $752.64, holding the bulk of the rally and closing near the top of the range.

SPY gained 2.36%, and this time the green close actually means something. The pattern finally broke. The past two sessions both faded into the close, but today buyers held their ground into the final bell instead of handing back their gains. That shows sellers lost their grip on the rallies, at least for now. Volume was the one soft spot. Turnover came in at 43.27 million shares, near average and lighter than yesterday, so this wasn't a stampede of fresh money piling in. Still, a move this strong on steady volume is a lot healthier than a short squeeze on thin trading. The fear gauge told the real story. The VIX plunged 22.39% to close at 19.90, slipping back under the key 20 level for the first time in this stretch. That's a big signal that traders are unwinding their hedges and the panic is draining out of the market.

Today was the turnaround that yesterday wasn't. SPY reclaimed $752.41 and closed above it, flipping that level from resistance back into support. The close sat just above that line, though, so the bulls need to defend it to prove this breakout is real. Below that, $742.21 and yesterday's floor of $732.71 give SPY a solid cushion. On the upside, today's high of $755.42 is the first test, followed by $757.07 and $762.64. The combination of a strong close near the highs, a VIX back under 20, and a clean break of resistance makes today decisively bullish. The only caution is the average volume, which means the bulls still need follow-through to confirm the patient is off the table for good.

Major Indices Performance
The Russell 2000 led the charge with a powerful 3.29% gain, extending the rebound and posting the strongest move on the board for the second straight push higher. Small-caps are the most sensitive corner of the market to shifts in risk appetite, so a surge of this size tells you buyers aren't just dipping a toe back in. They're diving in. Crude oil tumbled 4.27%, and that sharp drop in energy prices was a welcome relief for smaller domestic companies that feel fuel costs the most. When small-caps outrun everything else, it's a strong signal that participation is broadening, which is exactly the kind of breadth a durable recovery needs.

The Nasdaq followed with a solid 2.74% advance as growth and tech names kept attracting fresh money. The gain wasn't perfectly clean, since one of the market's heavyweight chip names lagged badly, but the rest of tech had more than enough firepower to carry the index higher. That's actually an encouraging detail. A rally that can absorb weakness in a major leader and still post a gain this strong shows that buying is spread across the sector rather than resting on one or two names.

The Dow rounded out the group with a 2.15% gain, flipping from laggard to solid participant after money rotated out of its defensive blue chips in the prior session. This time, the steadier names got pulled along by the broad wave of buying. The S&P 500 landed between the Nasdaq and the Dow, reflecting a true across-the-board rally. The VIX plunged 22.39% to close at 19.90, slipping back below the key 20 level for the first time in this recovery. That's a meaningful shift in sentiment and suggests the fear that gripped the market is fading fast. The real test comes Tuesday, though, with Fed Governor Waller speaking early and the CPI and Core CPI reports hitting before the open. A hot inflation print could quickly cool this enthusiasm, while a tame reading could give small-caps and growth names the fuel to keep leading.

Notable Stock Movements
Tesla led the Magnificent Seven higher for a second straight session, surging 5.54% and answering the question of whether Monday's bounce had any staying power. Back-to-back strong gains look a lot more convincing than a single relief rally, and they suggest buyers are serious about stepping in after Tesla's recent breakdown. That said, the stock still has ground to make up before the earlier damage is fully repaired. Two good days turn a hopeful bounce into a real recovery attempt, but Tesla now needs to prove it can hold these levels when the market gets choppy instead of handing the gains right back.

The rest of the group put together a mostly green session, with NVIDIA standing out as the one big exception after sliding 4.27%. That's a striking split, especially since NVIDIA was among the names helping lead the rebound just one session earlier. Having six of the seven names in the green is a big improvement over the prior day's split decision and looks a lot more like the unified buying that signals confidence returning to big tech. NVIDIA's slide is worth watching, though. When the market's most important AI name falls this hard on a day when nearly everything else is rallying, it can mean investors are taking profits or rotating money elsewhere. If that weakness spreads, it could cap how far this tech rally runs.

The broader market matched that upbeat mood with a powerful rally across the board. Small caps led the way, and tech-heavy stocks and blue chips posted strong gains too, so this was a true risk-on session rather than a narrow move. Bitcoin added 0.39% to close above $74,876, a modest gain that shows speculative assets joined the rally, though without much enthusiasm. The VIX plunged 22.39% to 19.90, slipping back below that key 20 level and signaling that fear has cooled significantly. Tuesday brings a big test, with FOMC Member Waller speaking at 4:00 AM ET, followed by CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m at 8:30 AM ET. If inflation comes in cool, the Magnificent Seven could extend their leadership and NVIDIA may find its footing. But a hot reading could quickly reverse this momentum and put the heavyweights right back under pressure.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil got hammered, sliding 4.27% to close at $86.95. That's a sharp reversal after the prior session's quiet hold, and it knocks the black gold back below $90 for the first time in several sessions. The selloff hit even as risk appetite surged across the broader market, which suggests traders are trimming some of the geopolitical risk premium rather than reacting to demand worries. Even with the drop, crude has rallied well above $70 and continues to defy longer-term model expectations, so the supply disruption story hasn't gone away. With Tuesday's CPI and Core CPI reports due at 8:30 AM ET, energy traders will be watching closely, since oil prices feed directly into those inflation numbers. A sustained move this far above $70 keeps inflationary pressure alive and could complicate Fed policy if energy costs keep showing up in the data.

Gold bounced back in style, jumping 1.85% to close at $4,150. That erases the prior day's dip and then some, rebuilding a healthy cushion above the key $4,000 level. What stands out is that the yellow metal rallied right alongside a strong risk-on session, a sign that buyers see it as more than just a fear trade. Inflation uncertainty, steady central bank buying, and lingering geopolitical tensions continue to underpin the long-term case. With FOMC Member Waller speaking at 4:00 AM ET and inflation data following before the open, gold could see some big swings Tuesday morning. As long as it stays above $4,000, bulls remain firmly in control.

Bitcoin edged higher, gaining 0.39% to close above $74,876. That's a small step in the right direction, but it's a weak showing considering how aggressively buyers piled into risk assets elsewhere. For a high-beta asset, a modest gain on a big rally day signals that crypto enthusiasm is still lagging the rest of the market. Remaining well below the $80,000 psychological level leaves the recovery effort on shaky ground. Tuesday's CPI report and Fed commentary could finally give Bitcoin a catalyst, as a softer inflation print would boost the case for easier policy. A push back above $80,000 would repair the damage, while continued sluggishness would keep the downtrend firmly in play.

Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield edged up 0.10% today to close at 4.860, essentially treading water while stocks ripped higher. That's exactly the kind of bond behavior bulls want to see. Yields didn't spike as money rotated into risk, which tells you the bond market isn't panicking about growth or inflation heading into a big data day. When equities can rally hard without dragging yields up with them, it signals the rebound has some real footing.

Against each threshold, nothing changed from yesterday. The 4.5% level where equity valuations start to feel the squeeze remains 36 basis points below today's close, and the 4.8% mark that usually triggers broader selling still sits 6 basis points underneath, so the 10-year is stuck inside the selloff zone. The 5% serious-risk flag holds steady with 14 basis points of cushion, and the gap to 5.2%, where the framework calls for a 20% or greater correction, stays at 34 basis points. Stable is better than worse, but the yield remains uncomfortably elevated.

Equities completely ignored the stubborn yield. The Russell 2000 led the charge with a 3.29% gain, the Nasdaq jumped 2.74%, and the Dow climbed 2.15%. Small caps outperforming by that margin is a strong tell that traders aren't sweating borrowing costs right now. The VIX collapsed 22.39% to 19.90, slipping back under 20 for the first time in this stretch. Crude dropped 4.27% to $86.95, which takes some inflation pressure off the table and gives yields a reason to cool. Gold rose 1.85% to $4,150, though, so some investors are still keeping a hedge in place ahead of tomorrow's data.

Tuesday is where the bond market finally gets its catalyst. FOMC Member Waller speaks at 4:00 AM ET, followed by CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m at 8:30 AM ET. A soft inflation print could finally push the 10-year back below 4.8% and give this rally real fuel. A hot number is the bigger danger, since a jump toward 4.95% would shrink the 5% cushion to almost nothing and could quickly erase today's gains, especially with volatility only just starting to settle down.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Heading into Monday, our AI model projected a maximum range of $724 to $749 for SPY, with the Put side dominating an expanding band. That setup called for trending price action with intermittent chop. With no economic news on the calendar, the forecast expected the session to trade purely on technicals and positioning. Because SPY closed Friday right on first support at $735, in the lower half of the projected range, our bias was bearish. We also noted that the bounce showed sellers were no longer fully in control. The VIX had dropped 11.71% to 24.88, which we described as easing fear that was still elevated.

The forecast named the $735 to $740 zone as the key battleground. On the upside, $740 was first resistance, followed by $745, with $747 and $750 capping the move and the $749 range top sitting just below that round number. On the downside, losing $735 was expected to send price toward $730 and then $725, near the $724 range bottom. The lowest support was $720, with $715 in play if that level broke. The long-term bull trend stayed intact above structural support near $640.

The recommended strategy was to trade about half to two-thirds of normal size. The favored trade was buying a hold of $735, targeting $740 and $745 with a stretch target of $747 and stops below $730. If bulls cleared and held $745, the plan was to buy a retest of that level for a move toward $747 and $749, with stops below $740. On the bear side, the best setup was shorting a failed rally into $745 to $747, targeting $740 and $735 with stops above $749. If $735 broke with conviction, the plan was to short a failed retest from underneath, targeting $730 and $725 with stops above $740. The bottom line was to buy the dip at $735 until sellers proved they could take out $730.

Market Performance vs. Forecast
Monday's session delivered a powerful breakout that carried SPY above the model's projected maximum range of $724 to $749. SPY opened at $741.95, reached a high of $755.42, dipped to a low of $741.09 and closed at $752.64, up 2.36%, on volume of 43.27M, near average. With no economic news on the calendar, the forecast relied on technicals and a Put-heavy band. External catalysts drove price action beyond the projected range. The model does not account for unpredictable outside events, and Monday's buying pressure exceeded the base case scenario. Even so, the forecast framework spelled out exactly what a bullish breakout would look like, and the session followed that script step by step.

The key levels mapped the move with real precision. The forecast named $735 to $740 as the key battleground and identified $740 as the first resistance bulls needed to clear. SPY opened above $740, and the session low held just above that level, turning old resistance into a firm floor. The forecast stated that if buyers "push through $740 and hold, that is the signal that last week's damage is being repaired and $745 to $750 comes into play." That is exactly what happened. Price worked through $745, $747, the $749 range top and the $750 round number in order. First support at $735 was never threatened, and the downside levels at $730, $725 and $720 went untouched. The long-term bull trend above structural support near $640 remains firmly intact, and the call for a broader dip-buying environment proved right.

On the rising market side, the breakout playbook delivered. The setup called for buying a clean hold of $745 once bulls cleared it, targeting $747 and then the $749 range top, with a small runner toward $750. Every target on that ladder was reached, and the runner pushed beyond $750. The forecast also flagged that a falling VIX would confirm the bullish case, and fear drained out sharply as the rally built. The $735 dip-buy never triggered because price never came back to test support, which is itself a sign of how strong the bid was. On the falling market side, the short at $745 to $747 needed a failed rally to trigger, but price never rolled over. When SPY pushed through the $749 range top, risk management protocols protected capital through the predefined stops. The breakdown short below $735 never came into play.

The VIX dropped 22.39% to 19.90, slipping back below the 20 mark for the first time in this stretch. That steep drop confirms that the fear behind last week's selling has largely unwound. The near-average volume showed steady buying rather than a frantic short squeeze. The guidance not to chase the first move off the open and to wait for confirmation above key levels kept traders aligned with the trend as it developed. The model identified $740 as the line that would change the tone, laid out the exact upside ladder that price climbed, and provided clear invalidation points for the bear case. The framework adapts as conditions shift, and Monday showed how well-defined breakout triggers, layered targets and disciplined stops keep traders positioned to capture outsized moves when the market chooses its direction.

Premarket Analysis Summary
The premarket analysis, posted before the opening bell, set up Monday's session with SPY at $742.43 in a put-dominated tape, though only barely, as the tone had steadied. Price was gapping higher after Friday's bounce held $735 and was trading above $740 for the first time since Thursday's collapse. The bias hinged on $740, the defining level, a major round number, the heaviest two-way battle on the board, and now the floor of the bounce. Holding above it would let the repair continue, while losing it cleanly would put Thursday's lows back in play. The expected move ran from $730 to $750, about ten points, and the notes warned that participants were still bracing for very large swings, with the first hour likely to signal which way the week would lean. Upside targets started at $745, where heavy two-way interest could stall price, then $748 as the next decision point. Beyond that, $750 capped the expected move as the level bulls really needed, and $752 was max upside. On the downside, $737 was the first level with little behind it. Below it, $735 was Friday's floor and the most important level, $732 was the point of last hope, and $730 was max downside at the bottom of the expected move.

The downside map never came into play, and the upside map was blown wide open. SPY opened at $741.95, just above the $740 pivot, and the low of $741.09 never threatened $740, let alone $737 or Friday's $735 floor. Buyers took control early, cleared the $745 stall zone, pushed through $748, and reclaimed the $750 level bulls really needed. They then ran past the $752 max upside target to a high of $755.42, well beyond the top of the expected move. Unlike Friday's fade, the rally held, and SPY closed at $752.64, up 2.36% on 43.27M shares of near-average volume, finishing above max upside. The VIX dropped 22.39% to 19.90, slipping below 20 and signaling a sharp unwind of fear. The key takeaway is that $740 held exactly as the floor the notes described, and bulls answered the question Friday left open by reclaiming the round number and closing above it. Holding $750 will now be the test of whether this repair can turn into a full recovery.

Validation of the Analysis
Monday delivered exactly the repair session the premarket map outlined, with 740 acting as the floor from the opening bell to the final print. The notes were written with spot at 742.43 and called 740 "the defining level" and "the floor of this bounce," adding plainly that "hold above it and the repair continues." SPY opened at $741.95, just 48 cents below spot and comfortably above that floor. Sellers took their only shot early, pressing SPY to a session low of $741.09, just $1.09 above 740. They never got close to breaking it. The first downside level at 737 sat $4.09 beneath the low, Friday's floor at 735 was never threatened, and the 732 "point of last hope" and 730 max downside never entered the conversation. When the entire bottom half of the board goes untested, it tells you the map nailed which side of 740 mattered.

Once 740 held, the upside script played out step by step, just as the notes promised: "Hold 740 and 745 then 748 come quickly." Price cleared 745, the level with "heavy two-way interest," then 748, "the next decision point," and drove straight into 750, the top of the expected move and "the level bulls really need." Bulls didn't stop there. SPY ran through 752, the max upside target, and tagged a high of $755.42, $3.42 above it. The notes had warned that "participants are still bracing for very large swings," and the session proved it, with a full range of 14.33 points that blew past the roughly ten-point expected move. Into the close, SPY settled at $752.64, up 2.36% and just 64 cents above the 752 max upside level, which ended up working as the day's landing zone. The notes also said "the first hour tells you which way the week leans," and the early defense above 740 made the bullish lean clear right away. The VIX dropped 22.39% to 19.90, a sharp collapse in fear that matched the repair the notes said would follow a hold of 740.

The trading value came from knowing that 740 was the line and that holding it unlocked every target above. The main setup was the long on the defense of 740. Buying the $741.09 low with risk tucked below 740 paid 3.91 points into 745, 6.91 points into 748, 8.91 points into 750, 10.91 points into 752, and 14.33 points into the high of the day. Even a trader who simply bought the open and held paid 10.69 points into the close. The second opportunity came above 752. With the map flagging it as the max upside, the stretch to $755.42 offered a chance to lock in gains or trim into strength, and the 2.78-point pullback into the close rewarded anyone who did. Just as important, the map kept traders out of the worst trade of the day. With 740 never lost, there was no reason to press shorts toward 735 or 730. Heading into Tuesday, bulls need to hold 750 and 752 to confirm Thursday's damage is fully behind them. Bears need a clean break back under 748 to put 745 and the 740 floor back on the table.

Looking Ahead
Tuesday brings the most important data release of the week, with the Consumer Price Index and Core CPI both hitting at 8:30 AM ET. After a quiet Monday with nothing on the calendar, inflation numbers will put every trader's attention back on the economy. CPI is the market's main read on whether price pressures are cooling or heating back up, and Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is the number the Fed watches most closely for underlying trends. A hotter-than-expected print could revive worries that rate cuts are further off than hoped, putting pressure on growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors. A softer reading could give buyers the green light to push higher.

Before the inflation data even lands, FOMC Member Waller speaks at 4:00 AM ET, so his comments could shape the mood in pre-market trading. Any hints about how the Fed views recent inflation or the path for policy could set expectations heading into the CPI release. With both events stacked in the morning, expect the biggest moves to come early, and be ready for a sharp knee-jerk reaction at 8:30 AM that may reverse once the details get digested. Don't chase the first spike. Let the market settle, see whether the initial move holds through the first hour, and keep your stops tight until the direction becomes clear.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels
Monday belonged to the bulls, and this time they didn't give it back. After Friday's shaky fade, buyers showed up early and kept pressing all session. SPY finished near the top of its range on near-average volume, which is the kind of follow-through that was missing last week. The breadth was even more impressive. The Russell 2000 led with a 3.29% surge, the Nasdaq jumped 2.74%, and the Dow climbed 2.15%. When small caps outrun everything else, that's a clear risk-on signal, and it tells you traders are willing to reach for higher-beta names again. Mega-cap leadership was mostly green, with one notable laggard keeping the group from a clean sweep. Bitcoin edged up 0.39% while gold rallied 1.85%, so some hedging demand stuck around even as equities ripped. The biggest story was in the fear gauge. The VIX plunged 22.39% to 19.90, dropping back below the 20 threshold for the first time in this stretch. That's a major unwind in hedging demand, though a collapse that fast right before an inflation report can leave the market vulnerable if the data surprises. Bulls have the edge heading into Tuesday, but they're walking into a real test.

SPY is now wedged inside the $750 to $754 zone that has defined recent trading, and the CPI report is the catalyst most likely to decide which side gives way. A break above $754 opens the door to $758, followed by $760 and $763. On the downside, losing $750 likely sends price toward $748, then $740 and $734. If that lowest support fails, there's little to keep SPY from sliding toward $730. Zoom out and the long-term bull trend remains intact, with SPY sitting well above structural support at $640. As long as those key structural levels hold, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Tuesday's projected maximum range runs from $744 to $761, with the Call side dominating in an expanding band that points to trending price action mixed with intermittent chop. That Call-side tilt backs the bullish case, but the calendar is loaded. FOMC Member Waller speaks at 4:00 AM ET, and CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m hit at 8:30 AM ET. Expect significant volatility in the first hour as traders digest both. A hot inflation print would likely pressure yields and energy-sensitive inflation fears, while a cool number could fuel a run at the upper resistance levels. Watch whether small caps can hold their leadership, since a sharp reversal there would signal the rally got ahead of itself. With SPY closing in the upper half of its range after a big one-day run, we favor shorting rallies near $754. Keep size light until CPI clears, and treat a decisive close above $758 as the signal to step aside on the short side.

Expected Price Action
Tuesday's session brings actionable intelligence generated by our AI model, which projects SPY's maximum range at $744 to $761. With the Call side dominating in an expanding band, the model is calling for trending price action with intermittent chop. The calendar gets busy early, with FOMC Member Waller speaking at 4:00 AM ET, followed by CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m at 8:30 AM ET. With inflation data and Fed commentary landing before the bell, expect significant volatility, particularly in the first hour of trading. SPY finished in the upper half of Tuesday's projected range, and that, paired with a Call-heavy tilt to the band, keeps our bias bullish heading into Tuesday. The VIX dropped 22.39% to 19.90, a sharp reduction in fear that shows buyers stepped in aggressively ahead of the inflation numbers.

The key battleground for Tuesday is the $750 to $754 zone that has defined recent trading, and the CPI report is the catalyst most likely to decide which side gives way. $754 is the first resistance bulls need to clear, and a break through it sets up a run toward $758. Above that, $760 and $763 cap the upside, with the $761 top of the model's range sitting between them. On the downside, losing $750 likely sends price toward $748, with $740 below that, just under the $744 bottom of the projected range. The lowest support sits at $734, and if that gives way there is little to keep price from falling toward $730. The bigger picture remains intact, with SPY well above structural support near $640 and the long-term bull trend still firmly in place. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment.

In the short run, the playbook favors shorting rallies near $754, since that level has capped the recent range and a big inflation print can knock price right back down. A rejection at $754 sets up a short with $750 and $748 as targets, but keep risk tight given the bullish bias and Call-side dominance. If $754 breaks and holds after the CPI release, step aside on the short side, because Tuesday likely turns into a trend day toward $758 and $760. Chop is part of the forecast, so don't chase the first move off the 8:30 AM data, since early swings can reverse quickly once the dust settles. If sellers push through $750 and hold, that is the signal that the rally is losing steam and $748 to $740 comes into play. With fear cooling fast and a major inflation report on deck, Tuesday sets up as a test of whether bulls can finally break out of the range or whether CPI hands sellers a reason to fade the rally.

Trading Strategy
The VIX dropped 22.39% to 19.90, a sharp collapse in fear that pushes it back below the 20 mark for the first time in a while. That's a real shift in tone, but don't let it lull you into oversized bets. Tuesday is loaded. FOMC Member Waller speaks at 4:00 AM ET, and CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m hit at 8:30 AM ET. Inflation data plus Fed commentary is a recipe for a violent first hour, and a VIX this compressed can snap back fast on a hot print. Run about two-thirds of normal size, and consider letting the first 30 to 60 minutes play out before committing. The Call side now dominates an expanding band, and the model calls for trending action with intermittent chop, so expect a direction to emerge with plenty of shakeouts along the way.

In a rising market scenario, buying a hold of $750 is the cleanest long on the board, since SPY finished just under first resistance after an aggressive rally. The trigger is price pulling back to $750, holding, and firming up after the CPI dust settles, ideally with the VIX staying below 19.90. The first profit target is $754, with $758 next if buyers keep pressing. Stops on longs belong below $748. If bulls clear $754 and hold it, don't chase the breakout. Buy a clean retest of $754 as support instead, targeting $758 and then $760. Stops on that breakout trade belong below $750. Since the projected high sits at $761, take most profits there and let only a small runner ride toward $763.

In a falling market scenario, shorting a failed rally into $754 is our favored trade overall, given how stretched price got after a big one-day run straight into resistance ahead of a major inflation report. A pop into $754 that stalls and rolls over is the trigger, especially if the VIX bounces back above 19.90 while price struggles under resistance. The first profit target is $750, with $748 next. Stops on shorts belong above $758. If $748 gives way with conviction, flip the playbook and short a failed retest of $748 from underneath, targeting the projected low at $744 and then $740. Stops on that breakdown trade belong back above $750. Because $744 marks the bottom of the projected range, take most profits there and keep only a small runner toward $740. If $740 cracks, $734 is the last support, and below that there is little to keep price from falling toward $730. By that point the move is stretched, so shorts should be booking gains, not adding.

The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640, and the bigger picture is still a dip-buying environment. The Call-dominant band and the collapse in fear give bulls the structural edge, but the short-term setup favors fading strength into $754 until buyers prove they can clear it and hold. CPI is the swing factor, so let the number land, let price confirm, and then act. Keep size moderate, scale out in layers, respect your stops, and remember that a calm VIX heading into a major data release can turn on a dime. Short rallies at $754 and buy holds at $750 until one side breaks the range.

Model’s Projected Range
SPY's projected maximum range for Tuesday is $744 to $761, with the Call side dominating in an expanding band that suggests trending price action with intermittent chop. Tuesday, November 10 brings FOMC Member Waller speaking at 4:00 AM ET, followed by CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m at 8:30 AM ET, and with inflation data and Fed commentary on deck, these releases are likely to produce significant volatility particularly in the first hour of trading. SPY ripped higher today, opening at $741.95, dipping to a low of $741.09 early, then running all the way to a high of $755.42 before closing at $752.64, up 2.36% on lighter-than-average volume. SPY remains in the $750 to $754 range that has defined recent trading, and Tuesday's CPI report is the macro catalyst most likely to decide which side of that range gives way. If $754 breaks, our model targets $758 next, while a break below $750 opens the door to $748, and if the lowest support gives way there is little to keep price from falling toward $730. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 with SPY well above structural support. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $754, $758, $760, $763, while support rests at $750, $748, $740, $734. With SPY closing in the upper half of its range, we favor shorting rallies near $754. Bitcoin gained 0.39% to close above $74,876, and the MAG stocks had a mostly green day led by Tesla up 5.54%, with NVIDIA the notable exception, down 4.27%, so both leadership groups showed strength that supports the broader rally. The VIX closed at 19.90, down 22.39%, suggesting a significant reduction in fear as buyers stepped in aggressively ahead of the inflation data. SPY closed in the upper portion of its uptrend channel with structural support near $640.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended Monday in a Bullish Trending Market State with SPY closing at $752.64. With SPY finishing well above the upper MSI line, MSI resistance at $741.26 now flips to support for Tuesday, and $739.71 sits just beneath it as the lower level. The MSI rescaled higher overnight, moving through a Ranging state into a Bullish state. In the premarket that turned into rapid rescaling higher with extended targets printing above near the $742.81 area. Rapid rescaling like that signals a strong trend. By the open the MSI had locked into a tight range, but extended targets kept printing above through the AM session and into the PM session, and SPY climbed more than 2.3% on the day. Extended targets stopped printing at the close, and SPY pulled back slightly off its highs. The MSI range is a moderate but still relatively narrow $1.55.
For Tuesday, the MSI is forecasting a slow grind higher. Without extended targets at the close, the move may be modest and is likely to find resistance at key levels above. Monday's strength put SPY back in its long-term trend and recovered more than half of the recent decline. That said, the relatively narrow MSI shows some doubt that the trend will keep running at this pace. Expect the MSI to rescale before the open and follow its cues. MSI support is $739.71 with resistance at $741.26.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
Friday we stated, "Bulls want to see overnight price hold $735.07 and push back through $736.81 and $740 toward Friday's $742.21 high," and added, "To be convincing this time they need the MSI rescaling higher and extended targets printing above, which is exactly what was missing Friday," while also noting, "above $740 with extended targets printing above, buy dips while targeting $742.21 and the premarket levels above." The bulls got all of it and then some. The MSI rescaled higher overnight, shifting from Ranging to Bullish Trending in the premarket, with extended targets printing above near $742.81 as price pushed higher before the bell. Friday's missing piece was finally there, and the herd showed up. SPY opened at $741.95, right on top of the $740 area and Friday's $742.21 high. It dipped only to $741.09 before buyers took over. From there it was a steady, one-directional climb. The MSI stayed Bullish Trending from the open to the close, and extended targets printed above through the AM session and into the PM session. SPY reached a high of $755.42 before easing into the close and settling at $752.64.
The setup was exactly what Friday's plan laid out. With SPY above $740 and extended targets printing above, the trade was buying the opening dip into the tight MSI range near $741, which held right at the open. Traders could then ride that long toward the premarket levels above and beyond as extended targets kept the trend in gear all day. There was no reason to fight it, and no reason to exit early while extended targets kept printing. At minimum it was a 1-for-1 session for traders following the framework, and that one trade captured most of a $14 move.
SPY gained 2.36% on volume of 43.27 million shares, near average, and the VIX dropped 22.39% to 19.90. That's a big drop in fear, putting the VIX back under 20 for the first time in this pullback. It was an easy day to read and execute with substantial setups, all identified through proper context, patience, and flexibility while leveraging the MSI, premarket levels, and market structure rather than forcing trades. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Tuesday has heavy economic data with FOMC Member Waller speaking at 4:00 AM ET and CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m at 8:30 AM ET, which can introduce significant volatility, so traders should be ready to trade what they see rather than predict. The MSI closed in a Bullish Trending state with a moderate $1.55 range and no extended targets at the close. That points to a slow grind higher, though the move may be modest and is likely to find resistance at key levels above. $741.26 is MSI resistance-turned-support and $739.71 sits just below it. Above, Monday's $752.64 close and $755.42 high are the levels to watch. Below, Friday's $742.21 high and Friday's $735.36 close mark the downside.
Bulls want to see overnight price hold the low $750s through the CPI release and push back toward Monday's $755.42 high. To keep the grind going, they need the MSI to rescale higher before the open with extended targets printing above again. A hot CPI that sends price back toward $742.21 isn't a problem for the bulls as long as $741.26 holds. Bears want to see $739.71 fail with the MSI rescaling lower and extended targets printing below. That would erase Monday's breakout and press SPY back toward Friday's $735.36 close, putting the long-term trend line back in question. That would take a real CPI shock, and the MSI isn't calling for it on its own.
The bias favors longs until the MSI shifts. With SPY sitting well above the MSI, expect the MSI to rescale before the open and anchor to the new levels it sets. If the MSI rescales higher and holds Bullish Trending, buy dips to the new MSI support and target the premarket levels above and $755.42. A failed breakout above $755.42 without extended targets printing above offers a short back toward $752.64 and the new MSI support. If CPI triggers a deeper flush, a dip toward $742.21 and $741.26 that holds and reclaims offers a higher-quality long back toward $750. A clean break of $739.71 with extended targets printing below flips that level to resistance, and the play becomes selling rallies into it while targeting $735.36. With CPI hitting before the open, let the first reaction settle, size down, and let the MSI confirm before pressing.
The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 and failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups. Remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States unless a clear failed breakout or breakdown presents itself, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven't yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Dealers are selling SPY $761 to $790 and higher strike Calls while buying $753 to $760 Calls, indicating the Dealers' desire to participate in any rally on Tuesday. They are buying ATM Calls and selling ATM Puts in large size, which signals their belief that the market is highly likely to move higher on Tuesday. The ceiling for Tuesday appears to be $765. Dealers are also selling $752 to $740 Puts, and Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $740. To the downside, Dealers are buying $745 to $690 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying some lingering concern that prices could move lower. SPY is back inside its long-term trend, and as long as $750 holds, the market will likely move higher. There is a Call wall at $756 and a Put wall above at $754, and with gamma now positive, both may provide some resistance on Tuesday. As we noted previously, in negative gamma Dealers press the trend rather than mean revert it, but that dynamic has shifted with gamma back in positive territory. Monday's rally took the wind out of the bears' sails, and they are no longer sitting in the catbird seat. As long as SPY remains above $750 the market is bullish, while below $748 is bearish, with chop and traps in between. Dealer positioning is unchanged at neutral/slightly bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $753 to $795 and higher strike Calls, indicating the Dealers' belief that the market is in balance in the short term at these levels, since they are neither buying ATM Calls nor selling ATM Puts. The ceiling for the week appears to be $776. To the downside, Dealers are buying $752 to $685 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, so they remain well hedged against further downside. There is a Call wall at $750 which will provide support, with a Put wall at $745 that is also supportive given that gamma is heavily positive. The market should move up strongly on a break above $758, with strong support sitting below $750. Above $750 is bullish and below $742 is bearish, with chop and traps in between. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged at bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders
Short rallies near $754, targeting $750 and $748, with stops above $758.

With CPI hitting at 8:30 AM ET, keep size small and review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET for any changes in the model's outlook and Dealer Positioning.

Good luck and good trading!