Market Insights: Monday, November 24th, 2025

Market Overview
Stocks surged Monday to kick off the shortened Thanksgiving week, buoyed by dovish policy hopes and renewed AI enthusiasm that reignited the tech trade. The Nasdaq soared 2.69%, marking its strongest single-day gain since May, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.47% and the Dow added 0.44%. Alphabet reached a new all-time high north of $300, and Tesla jumped 6.82% following a bullish analyst call. The sharp rebound comes after weeks of selling pressure and rising concern that the AI-driven rally may have peaked. With inflation data and Fed policy top of mind, traders responded favorably to additional comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who joined John Williams in signaling potential easing next month. Bitcoin joined the risk-on rally, climbing above $88,900 and recovering from last week’s lows, while energy and gold also rallied. Despite the strength, questions remain about the sustainability of the move, especially without a clear catalyst or volume confirmation. Tuesday’s PPI and Retail Sales will test the strength of the bounce, and any downside surprises could trigger another pullback.

SPY Performance
SPY opened strong at $662.50, dipped briefly to $660, then climbed throughout the session to close near the highs at $668.73, up 1.47%. The move stopped just shy of the key $670 level, where bears maintain a defensive line and bulls need to break through to regain control. Volume was average, providing little confirmation of conviction behind the bounce, and with holiday volumes expected to fade further, it’s unclear whether this marks the start of a new leg higher or just another bear market rally. The session showed broad strength across sectors but remains capped below the long-term trend break at $680. Bulls will need to hold $665 overnight to defend today’s gains and target further upside toward $675 and $680. A failure to do so opens the door to a retest of $659 and $657 before more meaningful support appears.

Major Indices Performance
The Nasdaq led with a powerful 2.69% surge, supported by strong gains in Alphabet, Tesla, and other key tech names. The S&P 500 added 1.47%, while the Dow posted a more modest 0.44% advance. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.84%, extending Friday’s rebound in small caps. Breadth improved meaningfully, and leadership showed signs of recovery, though the sustainability of this bounce hinges on upcoming economic data. After multiple failed attempts to stabilize in recent sessions, today’s rally has bulls cautiously optimistic—but still far from in the clear.

Notable Stock Movements
All of the Magnificent Seven closed higher, with Tesla leading the pack on a 6.82% rally. Alphabet broke out to new record highs, finishing well above the $300 mark for the first time. Nvidia climbed 1.5% but remains below last week’s highs, while Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta all posted solid gains. The strength across mega caps gave the session breadth and boosted sentiment, though bears remain focused on overhead resistance levels and waning momentum in prior leaders.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil rose 1.94% to $58.93, reclaiming ground after falling below our $60 model threshold. As long as oil stays above $56, the path toward $70 remains viable, though resistance will increase with each failed bounce. Gold climbed 1.22% to $4,166, continuing to strengthen as uncertainty around rates lingers. Bitcoin rallied 1.12% to close just above $88,900, marking a strong recovery from last week’s lows and reducing fears of a deeper correction—at least for now.

Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.69% to 4.035%, providing further support for equities. With yields retreating steadily from recent highs, investors are hoping the Fed will ease financial conditions at the December meeting. That said, yields remain dangerously close to levels that could once again tighten liquidity. A return to 4.5% would raise red flags for equities, and anything above 5% almost certainly triggers a larger market correction. For now, the decline in rates has given stocks room to breathe.

Looking Ahead
Tuesday brings key economic data with the release of PPI and Retail Sales figures, followed by Wednesday’s PCE, Prelim GDP, and jobless claims. These reports will shape expectations for a December rate cut and determine whether today’s rally can sustain. Bulls must hold $665 overnight and reclaim $675 to build on today’s momentum. Failure to do so likely sends SPY back to $659 and below. With markets increasingly pricing in dovish policy, any hawkish surprises or weak data could quickly derail this bounce.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels
SPY closed at $668.73, right below the critical $670 resistance. Holding $665 overnight is essential for continuation higher. Resistance sits at $670, $673, and $675, with a reclaim of $675 opening a potential breakout toward $680. Support lies at $665, $661, $659, and $657. If $661 fails, bears may retest $657 quickly. The broader bull trend holds above $640, but near-term control remains undecided, leaning slightly bullish. VIX dropped 12.42% to 20.52, falling back into neutral territory, though a spike above 30 remains our signal for a final bottom.

Expected Price Action
SPY’s expected range for Tuesday is between $661 and $675.25. The Call side currently dominates, but the band has narrowed, indicating a mix of choppy intraday action with periods of strong directional moves. A break above $675 could extend gains toward $680, while failure to hold $665 invites a slide back toward $659. Gamma positioning suggests fast reversals remain possible, and traders should be ready for snapbacks in both directions around key levels.

Trading Strategy
We favor fading rallies near $670 and shorting clean breaks below $665. Long setups remain viable only on strong holds above $675. Failed breakdowns near $661 or $659 may offer tactical long entries but require strict risk control. With the short week ahead and critical data approaching, it’s a time for nimble execution, position discipline, and avoiding overexposure. Unless SPY reclaims $680 with volume and confirmation, the current bounce remains suspect and exposed to reversal risk.

Model’s Projected Range

SPY’s projected maximum range for Thursday sits between $661 and $675.25, with the Call side dominating in a narrowing band that signals choppy price action with brief trending periods. Today the market staged a strong recovery to recent declines, rallying 1.47% to close just below $670 at $668.73. Overnight the market gapped up but fell back to $660 before opening strong at $662.50, and from there it moved steadily higher, stopping just short of the $670 level where the bulls can begin to retake the advantage. There was no news today, yet the holiday season seems to have lifted sentiment and buyers returned in force. The question now is whether this bounce is a dead cat or the start of a renewed bull leg. Only a break above $680 will confirm a full shift back to bullish dominance. At $670 the path forward is unclear. Markets are now focused on the December Fed meeting and a potential rate cut which could become a sell-the-news event. Tuesday’s PPI and Retail Sales data are likely to move markets. Overnight the bulls must hold $665 to build on today’s rally, and failure to do so will lead to a retest of $659. If $665 holds, targets move to $670 and then $675. A reclaim of $675 gives the bulls a real chance to push through $680 and regain full control. Volume was average and does not confirm or refute today’s move, so traders must watch for weakness near $670 in case this is only a dead cat bounce. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $670, $673, and $675, with support at $665, $661, $659, and $657. Above $675 momentum could carry SPY toward $680, while below $661 price could slide to $657. The broader trend remains bullish above $640, and the near term favors the bulls but only slightly. For Tuesday we prefer selling rallies toward $670 or shorting below $665. Crypto rallied sharply today along with all Mag stocks, reducing the odds of the ten to fifteen percent correction we have been warning about. VIX fell 12.42% to 20.52 and remains in no man’s land waiting for a catalyst. With a short week ahead anything can happen, so traders must stay flexible and trade what they see. SPY closed at the top of the redrawn bear trend channel with resistance at $670 and support at $640.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended the session in a Bullish Trending Market State, with SPY above MSI resistance turned support. There were extended targets into the close and for most of the day. The day began with the MSI in a narrow bullish state but with extended targets above, the MSI rescaled higher several times which saw price gain 1.47% closing near its day’s highs. For Tuesday the MSI is forecasting higher prices and at a minimum a retest of $670. MSI support is $668.22 and lower at $666.01.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Friday we stated “The MSI is forecasting sideways to down prices on Monday”, while adding “we will continue to favor the short side until $670 is reclaimed”, and also stating “the long-term bull trend remains intact above $640.” With this context, but with the MSI in a bullish state with extended targets above, we had to throw out Friday’s plan and look to the premarket plan which called for longs above $661. And this is why we do this twice daily. With a solid premarket plan, we were long at the open off MSI support at $662.35 on an textbook failed breakdown with T1 at MSI resistance at $663.45 and T2 at $666. A quick two targets and we had nothing to do but sit on our runner and trail. By 2 pm we saw the market move mostly sideways and fail below $670 so we took our profits and called it a day. One and done, thanks again to having a clear plan, maintaining patience and discipline, and staying aligned with MSI signals, market structure, and our broader trading framework. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Today’s move higher was impressive and because the highs held into the close, traders should expect more of the same on Tuesday unless an external catalyst intervenes. The MSI is forecasting higher prices, though the move may be more sideways than straight up like today. Our bias now shifts to favor the long side above $670, with a potential short at $670 and certainly below $665. If the bulls clear $670 and hold it, they will have reclaimed the advantage. If $665 fails to hold, the market is likely to test lower levels. Price stopped right at the 50 DMA which may provide resistance tomorrow, so caution is warranted. Stay alert for news from Venezuela or other macro events that could impact markets. Absent those risks, fade rallies to $670 on failed breakouts and sell below $665, while buying strength above $670 or dips to $665. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640, and the bears have lost much of their near-term edge. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups, so remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $669 to $700 and higher strike Calls while also selling $661 to $668 Puts indicating the Dealers’ belief that the bottom is in and that higher prices are likely on Tuesday. Dealers only sell ATM Puts if they strongly believe prices will rally. The ceiling for Tuesday appears to be $675. To the downside, Dealers are buying $668 to $565 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls/Puts they’re selling/buying displaying less concern that prices could move lower tomorrow. Dealer positioning has changed from bearish to slightly bearish/neutral.
Looking Ahead to Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $670 to $700 and higher strike Calls while also buying $669 to $669 Calls indicating the Dealers desire to participate in any rally this week. The ceiling for the week appears to be $680. To the downside, Dealers are buying $668 to $565 and lower strike Puts in a 6:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying, reflecting a market that continues to be concerned about lower prices. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged from bearish to bearish, but slightly less so. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders
Reduce exposure on strength into the $670–$675 range unless volume confirms the breakout. Avoid chasing upside until SPY decisively reclaims $680. Focus on short setups near resistance or failed breakdown reversals near $661. Maintain flexibility and let data drive conviction. The path forward remains uncertain, and while bulls have made progress, the burden of proof remains on their shoulders.

Good luck and good trading!