Market Insights: Thursday, November 20th, 2025

Market Overview
Stocks were hammered Thursday in one of the ugliest sessions of the year, as a midday reversal erased a powerful open driven by Nvidia’s blowout earnings and strong September jobs data. The Nasdaq led the decline, plunging 2.15% in a sharp intraday turnaround that saw the index fall over 3.5% from peak to close. The S&P 500 fell 1.52%, and the Dow dropped 0.84%, closing down 380 points. All three major indices had rallied overnight and opened higher, but optimism quickly unraveled as the session progressed. The sudden collapse aligned with steep drops in crypto, with Bitcoin falling below $87,000 to its lowest level since April. Nvidia, despite strong earnings and bullish commentary from CEO Jensen Huang, reversed a 5% early gain to close down 3.1%. The broader market's inability to hold gains amid high volume suggests that a deeper correction may be underway, especially with elevated volatility and risk-off sentiment returning forcefully. The September jobs report surprised to the upside with 119,000 jobs added versus 51,000 expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. This mixed data gave traders little comfort, and with Fed minutes showing division among policymakers, uncertainty reigns heading into Friday’s PMI release.

SPY Performance
SPY opened strong at $672.95 and spiked to $675.56, nearly a 2% gain, before an aggressive reversal took hold late morning. Sellers crushed any bullish momentum, driving price to a low of $651.89 before SPY settled near the lows, down 1.52% at $652.53. Volume surged to 154.66 million shares, more than double the average, reinforcing the significance of the breakdown. This type of reversal, strong open followed by a violent selloff to close near the lows, is rare and deeply bearish in context. SPY closed below last Friday’s lows, breaking key levels that had previously supported the bull trend, and the 50-day moving average is now clearly overhead. This move effectively unwound Nvidia’s entire post-earnings boost and raises the probability that a broader correction is underway.

Major Indices Performance
The Nasdaq tumbled 2.15% and was the day’s biggest loser, led by deep selling across tech and AI names. The S&P 500 dropped 1.52%, while the Dow shed 0.84%. The Russell 2000 fell 1.85% in a clear risk-off move that saw losses across every major sector. Tech leaders were hit hardest, led by sharp declines in Nvidia, Micron, Microsoft, and Meta. The broad and heavy nature of the selling, especially after such a strong start, confirmed that buyers are exhausted and bears are firmly back in control.

Notable Stock Movements
It was an all-red day for the Magnificent Seven, with Netflix leading the losses at -3.94%. Nvidia gave back all its post-earnings gains, closing down 3.1% despite a strong beat and bullish forward guidance. Microsoft and Meta continued their slide, compounding recent weakness. The fact that even good news couldn't generate sustained upside underscores how fragile market sentiment has become. Walmart was a rare standout, jumping nearly 7% after beating Q3 estimates and raising guidance, showing some resilience in consumer-facing names.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil dropped another 2.16% to $59.36, continuing its downward trend. While our model has long targeted a move toward $60, the decline is now extending below that mark, though any hold above $56 still keeps the door open for a rally toward $70. Gold was slightly lower, down 0.11% to $4,078, while Bitcoin plummeted 4.26% to finish below $86,700. Crypto weakness is now consistent and broad, adding to broader market pressure and increasing the risk of a deeper equity correction.

Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 0.90% to close at 4.096%. While below critical levels, yields remain in the danger zone for equities, particularly if they creep back toward 4.5%. A move above 4.8% would likely trigger significant selling, and a 5%+ print could provoke a correction of 20% or more. For now, bond markets are stable, but concerns around inflation and policy missteps keep yields in sharp focus.

Looking Ahead
Friday brings PMI data, which could add fuel to Thursday’s fire if it surprises in either direction. With SPY closing near its lows and volume confirming the breakdown, bulls must now defend $650 to prevent further damage. A drop below that level would expose $645 and likely $640, a key bull-bear line we’ve flagged for weeks. If bulls can hold $650, they’ll look to retest $660 and possibly regain some footing into the weekend. Nvidia’s earnings bounce has now fully unwound, and markets are back in correction territory with few near-term catalysts in sight. Traders should expect continued volatility and remain nimble.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels
SPY closed at $652.53, well below prior support levels and firmly in bear territory. Resistance sits at $655, $660, $662, and $665. Support is found at $650, $649, $645, and $640. Below $645, momentum could drag SPY quickly to $640, while a reclaim of $660 would be the first sign of stabilization. Dealer positioning favors downside, and the VIX jumped 11.54% to 26.39, a clear signal that elevated volatility is here to stay. An intraday VIX spike above 30 would likely generate a short-term bounce, but the broader setup has turned negative for bulls.

Expected Price Action
The projected range for Friday is between $642 and $664, with the Put side still dominant. Thursday’s failed rally and heavy reversal are rare and ominous, reminiscent of April’s energy crisis selloff. With Nvidia’s post-earnings boost fully erased and crypto tanking, traders should expect trending action with only brief consolidations. Holding above $650 is key for bulls; below it opens the door to $645 and $640. Above $660, bulls might regain momentum toward $670, but confidence is fading fast.

Trading Strategy
We favor shorting failed rallies into $660–$665 and being very cautious on longs unless SPY reclaims $660 with strong volume. Below $650, bears are in full control and could drive a move to $640 quickly. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the best setups, and traders should avoid participating during Ranging Market States. Flexibility is essential into Friday’s PMI print. While the broader bull trend holds above $640, near-term momentum favors further weakness.

Model’s Projected Range

SPY’s projected maximum range for Thursday sits between $639.50 and $664.25, with the Put side dominating in a wide expanding band that signals trending action with brief periods of chop. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics will not release a jobs report for October and the next report is not due until after FOMC, so with economic reports in disarray, the market can only react to momentum and external catalysts. Today started with a bang after blowout Nvidia earnings but ended with a whimper, dropping over 1.5% after being up close to 2%, a type of move that is extremely rare and was last seen on April 8th, liberation day, and before that in 1978 during the energy crisis, making today’s action something no model could have predicted. Tomorrow brings PMI which, in this environment, could move markets significantly since any new information is likely to elevate volatility, so traders should be prepared to trade what they see. Overnight the market moved sharply higher, gaining almost 2% before hitting resistance at $675, but after 11 am the decline began and continued into the close, finishing at the lows of the day down 1.52% at $652.53, a level below last week’s Friday lows and one the bulls did not defend, which does not bode well heading into tomorrow or the holidays. Overnight the bulls will try to limit the damage by holding above $650, because a drop below that level without a quick recovery opens the door to $645 and likely $640, a level we have highlighted for weeks. If the bulls can hold above $650 they will attempt a backtest of $660, which must be reclaimed to have any chance of reversing the roughly $2T in market cap destroyed today. The 200 DMA sits at $615 so if downside persists, that becomes a reasonable bear target and would represent a correction of more than 10%. And while we are not calling for that now, the probability of a correction beginning has increased materially. Volume was more than double average, reinforcing the decline, yet the broader trend remains bullish above $640 even as the near-term favors the bears, especially since the Nvidia-driven rally failed to hold. For Thursday resistance sits at $655, $660, $662, and $665, with support at $650, $649, $645, and $640, and above $660 momentum could push SPY toward $670, while below $645 price could fall to $640 quickly. We favor selling rallies to $665 or shorting below $650. We will be very careful with longs. Crypto and all Mag stocks tanked again today, a clear signal that the ten to fifteen percent correction we have been warning about may have started. VIX rose 11.54% to 26.39, above the danger threshold for equities and suggesting more volatility ahead, and while we expected a spike above 30, it did not occur, though a VIX intraday spike above 30 would likely create at least a dead cat bounce. Tomorrow is OPEX which means anything can happen, so traders must stay flexible and trade what they see. The model has now redrawn the trend channel into a bear channel, officially ending the bull trend that has been in place since April, and while the new channel is steep and narrow and therefore unsustainable, for now the model sees further weakness with a clear path to lower levels.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended the session in a Bearish Trending Market State, with SPY closing well below MSI support turned resistance. There were extended targets in the premarket and into the open above the MSI which saw price move close to 2% higher with the MSI rescaling several times higher in a narrow bullish trend. After the market started selling off however, the MSI began a series of rapid rescalings lower with extended targets that printed into the close. The MSI stopped rescaling lower at noon which implies a market that is seeking a bottom in the near term, but one that is likely to test lower levels first. MSI resistance is $659.39 and higher at $661.69.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Wednesday we stated “With a hawkish Fed the market appeared ready to move much lower, but a strong Nvidia report is pushing the post-market sharply higher”, while adding “If the bulls clear $670 overnight and hold it into the session, they will have control”, and also stating “Should price remain below $670, the bears keep their edge.” With this context, and with the MSI opening above $670 with extended targets printing, we looked for a place to go long but there was no structure to support an entry, and although we hoped for a dip to MSI resistance turned support, price never reached a clean level before extended targets stopped printing near 11 am, which shifted our focus to selling $670 since our plan called for longs above this level and shorts below it. We entered short just after 11 am at $670.50 and set T1 at MSI support at $668.66, which hit quickly, then set T2 at the next MSI support level of $666, and with both targets achieved and our stop at breakeven, we simply trailed to see how far the move would extend. We expected a possible drop toward the $661 premarket level, and as the MSI rescaled lower and continued printing extended targets, we held the runner until SPY reached that premarket level and began to bounce, and although a true failed breakdown did not appear until price reached $655.53, we exited our final piece at that point and called it a day with one large trade that exceeded expectations given the early strength and lack of structure for a long. While there were several set ups that worked well fading MSI resistance, we entered profit protection mode and quite around noon, one and done, thanks to having a clear plan, maintaining patience and discipline, and staying aligned with MSI signals, market structure, and our broader trading framework. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Even after killer earnings from Nvidia, the hawkish Fed minutes and sky-high valuations have woken the market to the possibility that conditions are not as strong as investors hoped, and with nearly $2T in market cap erased today, fear is beginning to seep into sentiment, though the long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 while the bears hold the near-term edge. If $650 fails to hold overnight or tomorrow, further weakness is likely with a potential test of the $640 line in the sand, and if that fails, the 200 DMA near $615 becomes a realistic downside target for the bears, but if the bulls can defend $650 they will attempt to push price back toward $660 to recover part of today’s damage. With OPEX tomorrow, a $10 swing in either direction is possible, so traders must be prepared to react and trade what they see, and for Friday we favor selling rallies toward $660 or clean breakdowns below $650 while avoiding long entries unless price breaks above $670, which remains a low-probability outcome in the current environment. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups, so remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $667 to $700 and higher strike Calls while also buying $653 to $666 Calls indicating the Dealers’ desire to participate in any rally tomorrow. The ceiling for tomorrow appears to be $675. To the downside, Dealers are buying $652 to $565 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying displaying concern that prices could move lower tomorrow. Dealer positioning has changed from neutral/slightly bearish to bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $672 to $700 and higher strike Calls while also buying $653 to $671 Calls indicating the Dealers desire to participate in any rally next week. The ceiling for the week appears to be $674. To the downside, Dealers are buying $652 to $565 and lower strike Puts in a 6:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying, reflecting a market that continues to be concerned about lower prices. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged from bearish to bearish, but slightly less so. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders
Use strength into $660–$665 to reduce risk unless accompanied by strong volume and leadership confirmation. Avoid chasing upside unless SPY reclaims $660 convincingly. Favor short setups on failed breakouts and be ready for downside acceleration below $650. Maintain discipline, stay patient, and align trades with MSI signals and structure. The bull trend is officially broken as the model has redrawn the structure into a bear channel. Until bulls reclaim control, short the rallies and protect capital.

Good luck and good trading!