Market Insights: Wednesday, November 19th, 2025

Market Overview

Stocks closed mostly higher Wednesday as Wall Street paused after four straight sessions of losses, with attention firmly focused on Nvidia’s earnings report after the bell. The Nasdaq led the day with a 0.6% gain, followed by a 0.4% rise in the S&P 500, while the Dow added 0.1% after drifting around the flatline most of the day. Despite a strong open, early momentum faded as the session wore on, reflecting lingering unease across tech, crypto, and macro policy. Nvidia rose 2.8% ahead of its highly anticipated earnings, while Bitcoin resumed its decline, dipping below $90,000 and nearing its lowest level since April. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes confirmed deep divisions around rate policy, offering little new insight and leaving investors looking ahead to Thursday’s jobs data for more direction. With no October employment data due to the government shutdown, the delayed September report now carries heightened significance. Broader concerns about Big Tech’s AI-driven capital spending persist, casting a shadow over the recent rally even as the S&P 500 remains near key support.

SPY Performance

SPY opened at $660.77 and surged early to $667.33 before giving back those gains and sliding to $658.75 midday. Bulls then stepped in, driving price higher into the close, and SPY finished up 0.40% at $662.72. Volume was 84.51 million shares, modestly above average, but not convincing. Despite the bounce, SPY remained below the 50-day moving average and struggled to reclaim prior support. Afterhours trading pushed SPY toward $670, bolstered by Nvidia’s strong report, but traders remain cautious heading into Thursday.

Major Indices Performance

The Nasdaq climbed 0.59% to lead the day’s gains, while the S&P 500 rose 0.40% and the Dow added 0.10%. The Russell 2000 lagged slightly, ending down 0.03%. Breadth was mixed, with leadership names split. Netflix dropped 3.62% while Microsoft and Meta extended their recent declines. Most other Magnificent Seven names bounced modestly, helping to stabilize sentiment. Still, the rebound lacked strong conviction, and a meaningful shift in tone will likely require follow-through after Nvidia’s report.

Notable Stock Movements

Nvidia gained 2.8% ahead of its earnings report, becoming the focal point for the day. Microsoft and Meta continued to slide, dropping 1.3% and 1.2% respectively. Netflix led declines among mega caps, down 3.62% following weakness in subscriber growth data. Other Mag Seven names like Apple and Amazon managed to post modest gains, contributing to the broader stabilization. Cloudflare continued to underperform following Tuesday’s outage. Overall, the market’s tone remained cautious but improved marginally.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil fell 2.16% to $59.36, continuing its recent decline. While the price has followed our model’s projected move toward $60, holding above $56 keeps the possibility open for a rally back toward $70. Gold edged up 0.19% to $4,074, while Bitcoin lost 2.92%, closing below $90,000. Crypto remains under pressure, and Bitcoin’s failure to hold key levels reinforces broader risk-off behavior among speculative assets.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.129%, up 0.22% on the day. While still comfortably below danger thresholds, any move toward or above 4.5% would pressure equities, and readings above 5% would likely trigger deeper market corrections. Bond markets remain stable for now, but investors remain wary given the pending jobs data and inflation reports.

Looking Ahead

Nvidia’s earnings are now the dominant influence on short-term market direction. With SPY closing just below $663 and futures already higher after the report, Thursday will test whether bulls can sustain momentum and regain control. Traders should prepare for continued volatility, especially as the delayed September jobs report hits Thursday morning. If Nvidia’s results are well received, SPY could challenge $670 and move toward $675. Otherwise, failed follow-through could reinforce bearish control.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY’s close at $662.72 places it just beneath short-term resistance. Key levels to watch Thursday include resistance at $665, $668, $670, and $675, while support remains at $660, $655, and $650. Bulls must hold $665 overnight to maintain momentum, while a break of $655 would return control to the bears and likely trigger a deeper retracement. The VIX dipped 4.17% to 23.66 but remains elevated above the danger threshold for equities, suggesting continued two-sided volatility.

Expected Price Action

SPY’s projected range for Thursday sits between $655 and $675, with Dealer Put positioning dominating in a broad band that signals potential trending action with brief consolidations. The market is reacting to Nvidia’s results with a 1% jump in futures, which could power SPY toward $670 at the open. However, volume remains light, and any strength without follow-through may be quickly faded. A clean move above $670 opens the path to $675–$680, while a break of $655 reintroduces risk toward $650.

Trading Strategy

Thursday is a trade-what-you-see day. The recent chop makes directional conviction difficult, so traders should be tactical and quick to adapt. Look for clean reclaim setups above $665 to ride momentum higher, and short any failed breakout attempts that reject $668–$670. A decisive move above $670 would shift momentum back to the bulls, while another failure there could reinforce resistance and provide short opportunities. Stay light and nimble into Thursday’s jobs data and watch futures closely for Nvidia follow-through.

Model’s Projected Range

SPY’s projected maximum range for Thursday sits between $649.50 and $676, with the Put side dominating in a wide expanding band that signals trending action with brief periods of chop. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics will not release the jobs report tomorrow, so there is no scheduled economic data to move the market. Nvidia reported blowout earnings after the close, and futures are already up 1%, so traders should continue to expect headline-driven volatility. Overnight the market drifted higher in a wide range between $665 and $660. At the open SPY moved straight up to $667 before reversing and giving up the entire move. Big up followed by big down equals big confusion which is the hallmark of a trading range. After falling to $658.75 midday, the bulls stepped in once again. A few hours of sideways action followed before SPY pushed back up 0.39% to close at $662.63, almost unchanged from the start of the day. The bears still hold a near-term edge, but Nvidia is now the dominant force so Thursday is a trade-what-you-see day, especially with SPY already closing in on $670 after hours. This remains a difficult level for the bulls and aligns with the 50 DMA. A move above $670 gives the bulls momentum to push toward $680 where they would regain clear control. Volume today was below average so it offers little insight into Thursday’s strength or conviction. The broader trend remains bullish above $640, but the near-term still favors the bears unless Nvidia’s strength shifts that balance. Overnight the bulls need to hold $665 to keep the bears from pressing their advantage. If the bulls can build on Nvidia’s earnings and push SPY to $670, they have a real chance to send the bears back into hibernation. If instead $655 breaks, the bears will gain more control and drive price significantly lower. That risk looked more likely before Nvidia earnings, but now the odds lean back toward the bull trend continuing toward $700. Before Nvidia’s report, resistance sat at $665, $668, $670, and $675. Support sat at $660, $655, and $650. Above $670 momentum can push SPY toward $675. Below $655 strong support should slow the decline toward $650. Crypto bounced again today, and most Mag stocks recovered. Netflix, Microsoft, and Meta were the exceptions and finished lower. We have warned that sustained weakness in leadership and in crypto could trigger the ten to fifteen percent correction we have been expecting. Weakness has begun to appear in our model, raising the probability that a correction starts sooner rather than later. VIX fell 4.17% to 23.66 which keeps it above the danger threshold for equities and suggests more volatility ahead. We would fade that volatility after VIX spikes above 30. SPY closed below the redrawn lower boundary of its bull channel from the April lows. The broader bull structure remains intact for now, but more closes below the channel will likely trigger the formation of a new bear trend channel. 

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended the session in a Ranging Market State, with SPY closing mid-range. There were extended targets above the MSI after the open until 10:45 am and none the rest of the day. Overnight the MSI remained in a wide ranging state but rescaled to a bullish state at the open. But a reversal at 10 am and the MSI returned to its ranging state and briefly entered a bearish state. But that didn’t last long as SPY reversed hard off the lows and once again, the MSI rescaled to a ranging state which lasted for most of the afternoon session. The MSI for Thursday is forecasting sideways to down prices, however in the post market SPY is rallying hard with the MSI rescaling to a bullish state with extended targets. As such it looks very much like Thursday, SPY will attempt to overcome $670 to put the bulls back in the driver’s seat. At the close, MSI support is $660.34 with resistance at $663.54.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Tuesday our AI messed up and we did not post a forecast for today, so we traded without an overnight plan and instead relied on the premarket report to shape the session. With this as context, and with the MSI opening in a ranging state, which we hesitate to trade, we waited for the MSI to rescale to a bullish state and entered long at MSI support at $663, setting T1 at MSI resistance at $665.10. With T1 secured we set T2 at the premarket level of $666.40. After T2 was hit we trailed because extended targets were printing above. But SPY formed a textbook failed breakout so we exited the long, although we did not short due to the strength of the move to $667. Extended targets stopped printing at 10:45 am, so we entered short at MSI resistance at $665.10 and set T1 at MSI support at $662.85. With two targets secured we moved our stop to breakeven and trailed. SPY continued falling until a textbook failed breakdown appeared just after noon, so we exited and reversed long. We do not usually take more than two trades in a day, but the setup was too clean to ignore. We set T1 at MSI resistance at $660.33 and, after the MSI rescaled to a ranging state, set T2 at MSI resistance at $663.56. Price approached but did not reach T2, so we chose to close the long at $663 to protect profits and called it a day. Three for three once again thanks to having a clear plan, maintaining patience and discipline, and staying aligned with MSI signals, market structure, and our broader trading framework. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
With a hawkish Fed the market appeared ready to move much lower, but a strong Nvidia report is pushing the post-market sharply higher and SPY is sitting right at $670 as this newsletter is being prepared. This is a key level and will determine who holds the advantage on Thursday. If the bulls clear $670 overnight and hold it into the session, they will have control. Should price remain below $670, the bears keep their edge. Any data from Wednesday is largely irrelevant now because Nvidia’s earnings reset the landscape, so Thursday becomes a trade-what-you-see day centered around this single level. The broader bull market remains intact as long as SPY stays above $640, and only a decisive break below that threshold would shift long-term control to the bears. For Thursday we favor buying rallies above $670 to $675 and selling failed breakouts at $670 for moves back toward $665. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups, so remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $669 to $700 and higher strike Calls while also buying $662 to $668 Calls indicating the Dealers’ desire to participate in any rally tomorrow. The ceiling for tomorrow appears to be $670 but that could change due to Nvidia earnings. To the downside, Dealers are buying $662 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying displaying little concern that prices could move much lower tomorrow. Dealer positioning is unchanged from neutral/slightly bearish to neutral/slightly bearish.
Looking Ahead to Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $673 to $700 and higher strike Calls while also buying $662 to $672 Calls indicating the Dealers desire to participate in any rally this week. The ceiling for the week appears to be $680. To the downside, Dealers are buying $660 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 7:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying, reflecting a market that continues to be concerned about lower prices. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged from bearish to bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

Use strength into $665–$670 to reduce risk unless accompanied by strong volume and leadership confirmation. Avoid chasing upside unless SPY reclaims $670 with conviction. Short setups may emerge if rallies fail at $668–$670, while long opportunities are more favorable on failed breakdowns below $655 that reverse quickly or above $670 on strength. Remain disciplined, respect volatility, and allow Nvidia’s earnings to dictate direction before committing to swing positions. The broader bull trend holds above $640, but short-term control remains contested.

Good luck and good trading!