Market Insights: Monday, November 17th, 2025

Market Overview

Stocks slumped again on Monday, marking a third consecutive day of losses as investors weighed rising doubts over near-term interest rate cuts and turned their focus to upcoming Nvidia earnings and the delayed September jobs report. The S&P 500 dropped 0.93%, the Dow fell 1.18%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.84% as selling pressure returned across major sectors. The session saw early attempts at a bounce, but those efforts failed to hold, and equities closed near the lows of the day amid risk-off positioning.

The day’s action was driven by a resurgence in concern over AI valuations and weakening mega-cap leadership. Nvidia declined nearly 2% after a filing showed that Thiel Macro, the hedge fund tied to Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel, had exited its stake in the chipmaker ahead of Wednesday’s highly anticipated earnings report. Tesla and Alphabet provided some relief, with Alphabet rallying over 3% following news that Berkshire Hathaway had taken a $5 billion stake in the tech giant, one of the few major tech bets made under Warren Buffett’s leadership. Despite that strength, weakness in the broader Magnificent Seven dragged sentiment lower, with Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon all finishing deep in the red.

Adding to market uncertainty is the long-delayed release of September’s jobs report, now set for Thursday. The Fed’s recent cautious tone has clouded expectations for rate cuts, with traders now pricing just a 45% chance of a December cut, down from 62% one week ago. With the Fed’s next move unclear, equities remain vulnerable to further repricing as economic data resumes this week. Until then, price action is likely to stay reactive, with intraday momentum driven by leadership performance and macro headlines.

Crypto extended its slide, with Bitcoin falling another 1.44% to close near $92,100 now down more than 25% from its October peak. While Alphabet’s strength offered a brief counterpoint to the AI unwind narrative, the broader tone remained defensive as volume accelerated on the decline, and breadth deteriorated further. The next few sessions will be critical as markets look for stabilization or confirmation of deeper correction risks.

SPY Performance

SPY opened at $669.64, hit a high of $673.71, and then sold off to an intraday low of $662.17 before closing at $665.67, down 0.93% on the day. Volume came in above average at 82.47 million shares, reflecting increased participation as the sell-off resumed. SPY once again closed below its 50-day moving average and is testing the lower boundary of its adjusted bull channel from April.

Major Indices Performance

The Nasdaq finished lower by 0.84% as tech failed to sustain early gains. The Dow led losses with a 1.18% decline, while the Russell 2000 tumbled 2.03%, underperforming on continued weakness in small caps. Broad sector selling, especially in Financials, Energy, and Tech, weighed on the indexes throughout the day.

Notable Stock Movements

Tesla and Alphabet were the only Magnificent Seven stocks to post gains Monday. Tesla rose 3.11% while Alphabet gained more than 3% on news of Berkshire’s stake. Nvidia led the downside after the Thiel Macro sell-off disclosure, while Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon all traded notably lower. The group’s deterioration continues to signal waning conviction in tech leadership.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil edged down 0.40% to $59.71, holding near the long-standing model target of $60. As long as oil stays above $56, a rebound toward $70 remains possible. Gold fell 1.20% to $4,045 amid rising real yields and a stronger dollar. Bitcoin extended its drawdown, closing at $92,100 and confirming deeper correction territory with a more than 25% decline from highs.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield eased slightly to 4.133%, down 0.39%, but remains within a range that continues to influence equity sentiment. While still below the 4.5% danger zone, any move back above 4.8% would likely reignite pressure on stocks, and a breakout past 5% or 5.2% could mark the start of a broader 20% correction in equities.

Looking Ahead

With no economic releases due Tuesday, markets will remain focused on price action and leadership dynamics ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Thursday’s September jobs report. Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday are expected to be a pivotal moment for tech and broader market sentiment. SPY’s key levels remain unchanged, with $680 as overhead resistance and $660 as major support. Until either side is broken decisively, a wide range remains the base case. Should SPY reclaim $670–$672 and hold, a bounce toward $675 may unfold. But failure to defend today’s lows could accelerate the move toward $655 or lower.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY closed just above the redrawn lower boundary of its bull channel from April, but back-to-back closes below $670 suggest rising pressure on bulls. Resistance now stands at $668, $670, and $672, with upside potential capped by seller interest near $680. Support lies at $665, $660, and $655. A break of $660 could trigger faster downside toward $650. The VIX jumped 12.86% to 22.38, pushing toward the critical 23 threshold that often signals a transition to risk-off sentiment.

Expected Price Action

SPY’s projected range for Tuesday is $660 to $675, with downside skew reflecting put-heavy dealer positioning and fragile momentum. Overnight strength was faded at the open, and bulls will need to defend $662–$665 to keep the bounce scenario intact. Any break below $660 could invite rapid downside toward $655. On the upside, reclaiming $670 opens the door to $675 and potentially $678, though upside conviction remains low in the absence of a fresh catalyst.

Trading Strategy

Favor tactical trades around well-defined levels. Strength into $670–$672 should be viewed cautiously unless backed by volume and strong leadership. Dips toward $662 or $660 may offer bounce opportunities if intraday reversals emerge, but traders should remain selective and avoid size until direction becomes clearer. Avoid chasing breakouts or breakdowns without confirmation and remain disciplined with stops. The best setups remain failed moves that reverse, particularly in volatile, news-driven environments.

Model’s Projected Range

SPY’s projected maximum range for Tuesday sits between $656.75 and $676, with the Put side dominating in a wide band that signals trending action with brief periods of chop. With no economic data due until Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes, traders should continue to expect headline driven volatility. Overnight the market gapped up then moved lower, testing $669 before bouncing into the open. SPY ended the day down 0.93 percent at $665.67, well off its lows but once again breaking below the 50 DMA. A brief test of Friday’s lows drew in dip buyers who stepped in as they have since April. Volume was high which does not bode well for the rest of the week. We stated on Friday the bears have short term control and suggested last week’s decline may not have been a one off. Yet with another dip being bought and price holding above $661, the near future likely brings a battle between bulls and bears within a wide range until an external catalyst moves the needle. In the near term the bears have seized an advantage while the broader bull trend remains intact above $640. The bears need significantly more downside to alter this long term structure. Overnight the bulls will attempt to hold today’s lows and recover $670 to stage a bounce toward $675. A failure to do so could send SPY to at least $655. On Friday we forecasted a push to $675 and stated the first reaction would likely be a dip that must be bought to keep bullish momentum alive. That played out today but after the first two dip buys, the bulls stepped back and allowed market forces to push prices lower. For the bulls to reclaim control, they need to keep price overnight and tomorrow above today’s lows so they can fight back toward $670. If they manage this, the wide range will continue with back and forth price action until one side asserts dominance. Absent a major catalyst, resistance sits at $668, $670, and $672, while support sits at $665, $660, and $655. Gains on Tuesday are likely capped above $668 to $670 while a break of $660 could send SPY toward $655 with ease. Crypto fell sharply again along with most Mag stocks except Tesla and Alphabet. We have warned that sustained weakness in leadership and in crypto could trigger the ten to fifteen percent correction we have been anticipating. We are now starting to see this weakness emerge and our model has increased the probability that a correction begins sooner rather than later. VIX rose 12.86 percent to 22.38, placing it near the 23 danger level for equities. We expect further volatility which for now we would fade, but only after VIX spikes above 30. SPY closed right at the redrawn lower boundary of its bull channel from the April lows and while the broader bull structure remains intact, closes below this channel will likely trigger the model to begin forming a new bear trend channel. 

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended the session in a Bearish Trending Market State, with SPY closing at MSI support. There were extended targets for much of the afternoon session right up until just before the close. Overnight the MSI remained in a bullish state and even rescaled slightly higher. But in the premarket the MSI rescaled to a ranging state which held until the afternoon session when the MSI began a series of rescalings lower to a bearish state. This pushed SPY below last Friday’s lows. But dip buyers were waiting and they stepped in once again to cut the day’s losses dramatically. SPY is resting just below the 50 DMA and the MSI for Tuesday is forecasting lower prices with a probable test of today’s lows and perhaps a test of MSI resistance at $668. MSI support is $665.65 with resistance at $667.96.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Friday we wrote “Fear is creeping into the market as extreme valuations, inflation risks, and the possibility of a more hawkish Fed are no longer supportive for equities”, and noted “the tug-of-war has begun, and the bears hold a slight near-term edge; we expect price to retest today’s highs and lows”, while also adding “For Monday we favor selling rallies into $680 and shorting clean breaks below $670 while also considering long entries on failed breakdowns that break today’s lows and recover quickly”. With this context, and with the MSI opening in a wide ranging state, we considered a long off $670 support but passed, choosing not to engage while the MSI was ranging and instead waited for a clean setup. SPY pushed back to the premarket level of $673.75 and, given the early weakness, we entered short at $673 with a first target at the premarket level of $671. That target hit quickly, so we set T2 at MSI support at $668.65 and, with ninety percent of the position off, moved our stop to breakeven and trailed. SPY then put in a textbook failed breakdown but, with extended targets still printing, we closed the runner without taking a reversal long since we never fight extended targets. Price reversed sharply back to our entry, but with the MSI still ranging and one solid trade booked, we became more defensive and waited for a cleaner opportunity. Around 1 pm SPY fell again and the MSI rescaled to a narrow bearish state; we didn’t love the size of the band, so we waited until just before 2 pm to short MSI resistance at $669.80, setting T1 at MSI support at $668.10, confident the odds of success were above sixty-nine percent. With T1 secured we set T2 at the premarket level of $665 and waited. The MSI continued rescaling lower with extended targets, so we took T2 at MSI support at $665.60 and trailed, expecting a test of last Friday’s lows. That test materialized shortly after, producing another textbook failed breakdown at the day’s lows, where we closed the short at $663 and wrapped up the day. Two for two thanks once again to having a clear plan, maintaining patience and discipline, and staying aligned with MSI signals, market structure, and our broader trading framework. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Another day of selling was bought again by the bulls, and while the market ended down close to 1% and remains below the 50 DMA, the bulls are still in the game and as long as they hold above today’s lows they should be able to reclaim some lost territory. First up is $670 which must be reclaimed before any push toward $675 can develop, and once there the probability increases for a move above $680 where the bulls would regain full control. If today’s lows fail and do not recover quickly however, the market falls to $655 and moves closer to the critical $640 level, below which a bear market begins. With the government temporarily open and the market shifting its attention to the Federal Reserve, the possibility of no further rate cuts this year, and Nvidia earnings, traders are weighing whether sky high valuations matter more than these macro forces. For Tuesday we favor selling rallies to $670 and shorting clean breaks below $660, and we will also consider long entries on failed breakdowns that break today’s lows and recover quickly. We may also consider longs above $670 but only with strength and volume to confirm entries. We still lean toward the bulls pushing prices a bit higher overnight, yet in the near term the bears have the edge and must be respected until price reclaims $680. With a slew of economic news due but which will likely be quite stale, market direction depends heavily on White House headlines and broader macro developments, requiring traders to stay flexible and disciplined and to trade what they see. With the VIX above 22, risk is off until price stabilizes, and any sustained move above 23 will turn the market decisively bearish and accelerate downside momentum. The key structural threshold for the broader bull market remains $640, and only a decisive break below that level would shift long-term control to the bears. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups, so remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $684 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also buying $666 to $683 Calls and selling $660 Puts in size indicating the Dealers’ desire to participate in any rally tomorrow. The ceiling for tomorrow appears to be $684 and by selling Puts, the Dealers are confident price will remain about $660 on Tuesday. To the downside, Dealers are buying $665 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying displaying little concern that prices could move much lower tomorrow. Dealer positioning is unchanged from neutral/slightly bearish to neutral/slightly bearish.
Looking Ahead to Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $682 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also buying $666 to $681 Calls indicating the Dealers desire to participate in any rally this week. The ceiling for the week appears to be $685. To the downside, Dealers are buying $665 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 6:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying, reflecting a market that continues to be hedged with hedges growing in size implying the Dealers belief that price may move lower. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged from bearish to bearish but more so. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

Remain flexible and tactical. Use strength into $672 as a chance to reduce risk unless backed by confirmation. Look for long entries near $660–$662 only if intraday signals support reversals on a failed breakdown. With the VIX now near 23 and headline risk rising, risk management must remain a top priority. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns remain the most rewarding strategies. Trade what you see, not what you think.

Good luck and good trading!