Market Insights: Thursday, November 13th, 2025

Market Overview

US stocks were hit hard on Thursday as the end of the record-setting 43-day federal government shutdown triggered renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. The Dow dropped nearly 800 points, or 1.6%, snapping its two-day streak of record closes. The Nasdaq led losses with a 2.3% decline, and the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, as investors rapidly unwound bets on a December rate cut. The abrupt shift in sentiment followed hawkish Fed commentary that cast doubt on easing expectations, with rate cut odds for December falling from 95% just a month ago to nearly even odds.

The shutdown’s resolution did little to lift markets, as investors treated it as a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event. President Trump signed the funding bill late Wednesday, ending the longest government closure in history, but the White House confirmed that many delayed economic reports, including October jobs and inflation data, may never be released due to data collection interruptions. That uncertainty is now clouding the economic outlook, complicating the Fed’s decision-making and fueling volatility.

Tech stocks led Thursday’s rout, with Nvidia plunging over 3.5% and Tesla sliding more than 6%, marking the steepest declines among the Magnificent Seven. Disney also fell more than 7.5% after reporting disappointing earnings, deepening the selloff. With no economic data due and the shutdown now in the rearview mirror, the market turned its attention back to stretched valuations and fragile leadership. This created a backdrop ripe for profit-taking and renewed downside pressure.

SPY Performance

SPY opened at $680.56 and faced immediate pressure, quickly falling to an intraday low of $670.52 before settling at $672.06, down 1.66% on the day. Volume surged to 89.74 million shares, well above average and confirming the severity of the selloff. SPY closed firmly below the key $680 level for the second day in a row, raising the possibility that the pullback could evolve into something more significant if buyers fail to step in soon.

Major Indices Performance

The Nasdaq dropped 2.29% in a broad tech-led selloff, while the Dow tumbled 1.65%, snapping its two-day streak of record closes. The S&P 500 fell 1.66% in line with SPY, and the Russell 2000 underperformed with a 2.78% drop as small caps bore the brunt of risk-off sentiment.

Notable Stock Movements

It was the worst day for the Magnificent Seven in weeks, with broad red across the board except for Meta, which eked out a 0.14% gain. Tesla plunged more than 6%, Nvidia dropped over 3.5%, and Disney tumbled 7.5% on earnings. Leadership weakness in these key names raises fresh concerns about the durability of the bull run, though bulls are watching closely for a base to form at lower levels.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil rose 0.34% to $58.69 and continues to hold above the critical $56 level. Our model still sees the potential for a move back toward $70 if $56 remains intact. Gold slipped 1.00% to $4,171 as real yields climbed. Bitcoin extended its decline, falling 3.44% to settle above $98,300 as crypto followed equities lower.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.08% to close at 4.109%. While still well below the 4.5% danger threshold, today’s move reflects rising uncertainty. A continued climb above 4.8% would likely pressure equities further, and any breach of 5% could spark more severe selling.

Looking Ahead

Friday’s session will test whether buyers are willing to step in after two straight days of selling or if the recent breakdown continues to snowball. With the shutdown now behind us and no major economic reports scheduled, sentiment will be shaped by positioning, technical levels, and lingering concerns around valuations and Fed policy. If SPY opens weak and loses $670, bears could drive price toward $662 or even $659, where larger support zones begin to form. However, a strong open that holds above $672 could fuel a short-covering bounce back toward $675 or higher. The path forward is likely to be volatile and reactive. Traders should be prepared for sudden shifts in direction and keep a close eye on leadership names and sector rotation for early signals.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

Sentiment took a clear hit Thursday, with the VIX jumping to 20.21 marking its first close above 20 in nearly a month. While this level doesn’t indicate outright panic, it suggests that uncertainty is now firmly embedded in the market. SPY’s break below the $680 support area shifts momentum to the bears in the near term, and the close near session lows signals potential for follow-through on Friday. A move below $670 would mark a loss of intermediate control for bulls and open the door to steeper losses. Conversely, if SPY can reclaim and hold $675 with strong volume, it would mark a short-term stabilization point.

Expected Price Action

Friday may open with an early attempt to stabilize around the $670–$672 area, especially if overnight futures remain muted. If that area holds, a drift higher toward $675 or even $677 is plausible, but sellers are likely to defend those levels aggressively unless volume spikes and leadership improves. If $670 fails early, expect momentum selling to accelerate, pushing SPY to test $665 and possibly $662 before buyers step back in. With no economic releases to anchor price, market direction will likely be dictated by technical levels and headline sensitivity, particularly around Fed commentary or geopolitical developments. Choppy, two-way trade with an intraday downside bias is the base case unless bulls can quickly reclaim broken levels.

Trading Strategy

Approach Friday with a defensive mindset. Short-term traders can look to fade weak rallies into $675–$677, especially if volume is light and price stalls beneath prior support. For those looking to go long, consider only deeply oversold intraday setups or confirmed support holds near $670 or $665 with strong reversal signals. This is not an environment to chase either direction blindly. Keep position sizes tight and focus on quick rotations rather than multi-hour swings. Elevated volatility and declining momentum suggest markets are in the early stages of a short-term consolidation or pullback phase, and staying reactive will be more important than holding directional conviction.

Model’s Projected Range

SPY’s projected maximum range for Friday sits between $662 and $682, with the Put side dominating in a wide and expanding band that signals trending action with brief periods of chop. There is no economic data due, and although the government has reopened, the market treated it as a buy the rumor sell the news event since the deal only pushes the issue out 75 days. With valuations stretched and another shutdown possible in January, the market finally eased off the gas and allowed the bears back into play. With no new economic reports expected for several weeks, traders should continue to expect headline-driven volatility. Overnight the market moved mostly sideways until just before the open, when selling began and SPY ultimately closed down 1.66% at $672.04. A close below $680 gives the bears short-term control and suggests last week’s decline may not have been a one-off event. Volume was much higher than average, reinforcing today’s weakness. The question now is whether this pullback becomes another dip-buying opportunity or the start of something more meaningful. The broader bull trend remains intact above $640, and the bears need significantly more damage to shift the long-term structure. Overnight the bulls need to defend $670 to attempt a move back toward $680. Failure to hold $670 will likely turn rallies into selling opportunities. If $670 breaks cleanly, another leg lower is likely. Absent a major catalyst, resistance sits at $675, $677, and $680, while support sits at $670, $668, $665, and $662. A strong move above $677 could allow the bulls to back test $680, while a break of $662 could send SPY toward $659, below which there is little support. Crypto fell sharply today along with all Mag stocks except Meta, which finished flat. As we have warned repeatedly, sustained weakness in leadership and in crypto could still trigger the 10 to 15 percent correction we have been anticipating, though two days of selling is not enough to confirm it. If weakness in these leaders continues, this could be an early warning sign. The VIX rose 14.33% to 20.21, bringing it close to danger levels for equities. SPY closed well below the lower boundary of its bull channel from the April lows, and after two closes beneath that boundary, the model is likely to redraw the channel, which would moderate the bullish slope while keeping the long-term structure intact. A break of last Friday’s lows, however, would likely shift the model toward a short-term bear trend.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended the session in a Bearish Trending Market State, with SPY closing mid-range. There were extended targets below for most of the day signifying herd participation in today’s rout. While at the close extended targets stopped printing, they were prominent the entire day and hinted at the day’s weakness overnight when there was a brief period of extended targets below price during the overnight session. As the day unfolded the MSI rescaled lower several times in a bearish state and continued to rescale until 1:30 pm with the MSI remaining fixed for most of the afternoon session. For Friday the MSI is implying lower prices with a likely test of today’s lows and MSI support at a minimum. MSI support is $671.59 with resistance at $675.16.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Wednesday we wrote “The $686 level represents significant resistance that could temporarily cap price”, and noted “if $680 fails to hold SPY could revisit lower levels”, while also adding “Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest probability setups”. With this context, and with the MSI opening in a narrow bearish state with extended targets below and with a textbook failed breakout in the premarket, we looked for shorts out of the gate to get with the prevailing trend. There was little structurally for us to use for an entry so we waited for a rally to fade, which came at 10 am at the major resistance level of $680. We set our first target at MSI support at $677.43 and as the MSI rescaled lower, we set T2 at the next lower level of $676.09. With two targets secured we had nothing to do but trail to see how low the market would fall. We did not have any premarket levels below $678 so we relied entirely on the MSI and watched for a failed breakdown to exit. The MSI continued to rescale lower with extended targets printing, so we held until SPY finally put in a reasonably formed failed breakdown at $671.65 where we exited and wrapped up the day. One and done and a strong result, driven once again by having a clear plan, maintaining patience and discipline, and staying aligned with MSI signals, market structure, and our broader trading framework. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
After a strong rally and a temporary resolution to the government shutdown, the market shifted its attention to the Federal Reserve and the possibility that no further rate cuts will occur this year. Traders also recognized that the reopening agreement is short term, which added pressure to sentiment, and the market sold off sharply as a result. Price now appears poised for further weakness and is likely to test last Friday’s lows at a minimum. If $670 holds, the bulls will attempt to push price back toward $680 to regain control, but any failure at last week’s lows will challenge the broader bullish trend. For Friday we favor selling rallies into $680 and shorting clean breaks below $670. We will also consider long entries on failed breakdowns that break today’s lows and recover quickly. We still lean toward the bull case in the bigger picture, but in the near term, the bears are in control and must be respected until price reclaims $680. With little economic news expected for some time, market direction depends heavily on White House headlines and broader macro developments, requiring traders to stay flexible and disciplined and to trade what they see. With the VIX above 20, risk is paused until price stabilizes, and any sustained move above 23 will turn the market decisively bearish and accelerate downside momentum. The key structural threshold for the broader bull market remains $640, and only a decisive break below that level would shift long-term control to the bears. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups, so remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $683 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also buying $673 to $682 Calls in size, implying the Dealers’ desire to participate in any rally tomorrow. The ceiling for tomorrow appears to be $686. To the downside, Dealers are buying $672 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying displaying little concern that prices could move much lower tomorrow. Dealer positioning is unchanged from neutral/slightly bearish to neutral/slightly bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $680 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also buying $673 to $679 Calls implying the Dealers desire to participate in any rally next week. The ceiling for the week appears to be $690. To the downside, Dealers are buying $672 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 5:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying, reflecting a market that continues to be hedged with hedges growing in size implying the Dealers belief that price may move lower. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged from bearish to bearish but more so. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

Stay tactical and respect the current shift in momentum. Use strength into $675–$677 to exit longs or initiate tactical shorts. Be patient for long entries near $670 or lower and demand clear confirmation before stepping in. Elevated volatility and fading breadth suggest we are entering a digestion phase, not the beginning of a renewed uptrend. Stay nimble, and prioritize risk management above all.

Good luck and good trading!