Market Insights: Wednesday, November 12th, 2025

Market Overview

Stocks ended mixed on Wednesday as a rotation out of tech pressured the Nasdaq, while optimism around a potential resolution to the 41-day U.S. government shutdown lifted the Dow to a new record close. The blue-chip index surged more than 500 points, or 1.2%, to finish above 48,000 for the first time ever, as expectations grew that the House would pass a Senate-approved funding bill to reopen the government. The White House signaled President Trump is prepared to sign the legislation, stoking risk-on sentiment across cyclicals and industrials.

The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.2% as Big Tech lagged. Nvidia fell 2.9% after SoftBank disclosed a full exit from its position to fund its own AI efforts, adding to concerns over valuations in the chip space. CoreWeave dropped 15% following cautious guidance despite a revenue beat, while other tech leaders like Amazon and Tesla also declined. AMD bucked the trend, jumping 9% after CEO Lisa Su laid out a bullish long-term AI roadmap at the company’s investor day, boosting confidence in its ability to compete in the data center market.

Despite tech weakness, shutdown optimism helped keep broader sentiment resilient. A resolution would not only restart government functions but also determine whether delayed economic reports like October CPI and PPI, will be released. The White House said Wednesday that some of those reports “likely never” will be, due to data collection halts during the closure, creating further macro uncertainty as the Fed prepares for its December policy decision. Meanwhile, commentary from Fed officials, including potential next Chair Christopher Waller and new appointee Stephen Miran, kept markets attuned to interest rate expectations, with bets still favoring a quarter-point cut.

Earnings season slowed, but Circle reported a beat on stablecoin growth, even as shares declined. Cisco is set to report after the bell. Geopolitical risks remain in focus after reports that China is considering restrictions on rare earth exports to the U.S. military. Overall, Tuesday reflected a market attempting to balance strong breadth with narrowing leadership, all while bracing for upcoming macro events and political resolution.

SPY Performance

SPY opened at $684.78 and traded in a tight range throughout the session, peaking at $684.96 and bottoming at $680.95 before closing at $683.31, up 0.22%. Volume was light at 56.19 million shares, again falling below average and indicating waning conviction. Still, SPY closed above the key $680 level, confirming continued strength within the broader uptrend. Immediate resistance sits at $685, $688, and $690, with support at $682, $678, and $675.

Major Indices Performance

The Dow led with a 0.68% gain, driven by cyclical and industrial strength. The S&P 500 added 0.22%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.26% as tech stocks underperformed. The Russell 2000 also dropped 0.26%, continuing its recent lag as investors rotated out of speculative growth.

Notable Stock Movements

The Magnificent Seven ended mostly red, with Microsoft and Nvidia eking out small gains, and Netflix leading with a 1.87% rally. Apple, Amazon, and Tesla traded lower, while AMD surged 9% after outlining strong AI growth prospects. CoreWeave’s sharp drop highlighted risks in the AI infrastructure trade.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil plunged 4.24% to $58.45, testing key support. Our model maintains a bullish bias above $56, with potential upside to $70 if the floor holds. Gold rallied 2.07% to close at $4,201 as safe-haven demand ticked higher. Bitcoin slipped 1.01% to close just above $101,600, extending recent weakness.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped 0.12% to 4.065%, remaining comfortably below the 4.5% threshold. A move above 4.8% would pressure equities, and above 5.2% could trigger a more than 20% correction. For now, yields support the bull case.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Wednesday’s roadmap called for a bullish continuation above $681.40 with a push toward $685, following an overnight dip. SPY opened above bias, tested support at $681, and climbed toward the $684.96 high before fading slightly. The intraday action confirmed both the range and direction forecast.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

SPY traded between $680.95 and $684.96, closely tracking the model’s projected range of $677.25 to $688.25. The close at $683.31 affirmed the bullish directional lean, while the tight range highlighted exhaustion risk and declining momentum.

Premarket Analysis Summary

Premarket expectations were for a muted rally toward $686.50 or $688 provided SPY held $683. Early strength faded slightly, and upside targets remained untested, suggesting caution was warranted. Bias remains bullish but tempered by exhaustion signals.

Validation of the Analysis

Wedneday’s move aligned well with the roadmap and MSI forecast. The rejection below $685 matched expectations, offering well-structured trade opportunities. SPY held the bias zone, respected key levels, and confirmed momentum moderation without breaking trend.

Looking Ahead

SPY’s projected range for Thursday is $677.25 to $690. Resistance levels include $686, $688, $690, and $694. Support sits at $682, $678, $675, and $670. Absent a shutdown resolution, markets may drift. A breakout above $686 could accelerate the uptrend, while a break below $675 exposes downside risk to $670.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY’s strong close above $680 keeps bulls in control, with $686 now the critical resistance to watch. The VIX rose 1.33% to 17.51, signaling cautious optimism. A sustained move above $686 may spark momentum toward $690 and new highs, while failure to break resistance could lead to consolidation.

Expected Price Action

Expect an early test of $686, followed by a potential fade or continuation toward $690. If $680 fails, a move to $678 or $675 becomes more likely. Headline risk remains elevated. Trade with discipline and respect the roadmap.

Trading Strategy

Buy dips into $680 or confirmed breakouts above $686. Avoid chasing unless volume confirms strength. Sell failed rallies into $688 or $690. Remain alert to shutdown headlines.

Model’s Projected Range

SPY’s projected maximum range for Thursday sits between $677.25 and $690, with the Call side dominating in a slightly expanding band that signals choppy price action punctuated by brief trending periods. There is no economic data due Thursday, leaving the ongoing government shutdown as the main driver of market sentiment and direction, so traders should continue to anticipate headline driven volatility. Today the market moved sideways after gapping up overnight to major resistance at $685 and closed up 0.06 percent at $683.38, and after a strong three day rally SPY was due for a breather. SPY has now fully recovered from last week’s sell off and finished at $683, well above the critical $680 level where the bulls maintain firm control of the tape. Volume came in below average, which leaves some doubt about the conviction behind the move, but price remains king and momentum continues to favor the bulls. The bears briefly gained traction last week, but their efforts were short lived, which is consistent with nearly every pullback this year, and as long as SPY holds above $640 the broader bull trend remains structurally intact and the bears have significant ground to recover before regaining meaningful influence. Overnight the bulls will once again look to defend $680 to sustain the rally toward $686 where a brief pause or dip may develop before the next leg higher, and should $680 fail SPY could retrace to $678, but holding that level keeps the door open for further upside toward $686 followed by consolidation ahead of a potential breakout to $690 and new all time highs. Absent a catalyst, resistance for Thursday sits at $686, $688, $690, and $694, while support sits at $682, $678, $675, and $670, and a strong move above $686 could accelerate momentum while a decisive break below $675 could expose $670 before more significant support emerges. Crypto fell sharply again today while most Mag stocks fell in sympathy, which creates a temporary sign of weakness, and as we have noted repeatedly, sustained softness in key leadership names or crypto could still spark the 10 to 15 percent correction we have been tracking, although one day of decline does not qualify as sustained weakness, and as long as leadership remains broadly intact the path of least resistance continues to point higher. The VIX rose 1.33 percent to 17.51, which still sits in a neutral zone that reflects neither renewed confidence nor serious concern. SPY closed well above the lower boundary of its bull channel from the April lows, and given last week’s brief break of that structure the channel will likely be redrawn to align with the market’s evolving slope, moderating its trajectory while preserving the long term bullish framework, which remains intact though increasingly tested. 

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended the session in a wide Bullish Trending Market State, with SPY closing mid-range. There were no extended targets all day and as such, SPY moved sideways within the wide MSI range for the entire day. Overnight the MSI rescaled higher, maintaining its bullish state that lasted the entire session. For Wednesday the MSI is implying potentially higher prices but given the range of the MSI, its also likely the MSI rescales to a ranging state and the market continues to move more sideways than straight up. MSI support is $680.99 with resistance at $685.72.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Monday we wrote that our lean remains to trade with the prevailing trend, continuing to seek long setups from key support levels rather than chasing strength into resistance, and noted that while we expect some additional follow through on Wednesday it is also probable the market takes a breather and trades more sideways to up rather than continuing straight higher, while also adding that the $685 level represents significant resistance and could temporarily cap price. With this context, and with the MSI opening in a wide bullish state without extended targets, the dip to MSI support after the open gave us the opportunity to go long at $681 with a first target at the premarket level of $683 and a second target at MSI resistance at $685.72. T1 was secured just after noon so we held for higher prices, but SPY stalled at $684 and chopped around this level for some time which gave us a reason to adjust T2 to $684. After T2 was secured, we moved our stop to breakeven in case SPY pushed higher toward MSI resistance, but that did not occur so with only a few minutes left in the session we exited the final ten percent of the position at $683.50 and called it a day. One for one in a listless and choppy session, thanks again to having a plan, maintaining patience and discipline, and aligning fully with MSI signals, market structure, and our broader trading framework. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
After a strong three day rally there is little to do but let price action unfold and allow the market to reveal its next move, and our lean remains to trade with the prevailing trend while continuing to seek long setups from key support levels rather than chasing strength into resistance. We expect the market will attempt follow through but this depends heavily on developments out of Washington, and it is likely SPY continues to consolidate and trade more sideways than up until the shutdown situation is resolved. The $686 level represents significant resistance that could temporarily cap price and offer a dip buying opportunity, and while the House could derail everything if it fails to approve the Senate bill, absent a major setback tomorrow’s session is likely to see SPY push toward $686, perhaps after an overnight dip to as low as $680 before recovering. Our bias continues to favor longs over shorts and we will remain cautious fading the highs, looking only for confirmed failed breakouts above $686 before considering short entries. The bulls are firmly back in control and appear intent on reaching new all time highs, making it more a matter of when than if, and with market direction hinging on White House headlines and other macro developments traders must stay flexible and disciplined. We anticipate a continued push toward $686 and potentially $690 in the coming days, and with minimal economic data expected until the shutdown ends, traders must stay nimble and focused on trading what they see. On the downside, if $680 fails to hold SPY could revisit lower levels, though that remains a low probability outcome without negative headlines, and with the VIX near 17 in neutral territory risk is back on, albeit cautiously. A sustained drop below 16 would likely accelerate bullish momentum. The key structural threshold for the broader bull market remains $640, and only a decisive break below that level would shift long-term control to the bears. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups, so remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $685 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also buying $684 Calls in small size, implying the Dealers’ desire to participate in any rally tomorrow, no matter how small. Dealers are no longer selling ATM Puts. The ceiling for tomorrow appears to be $690. To the downside, Dealers are buying $673 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying displaying little concern that prices could move lower tomorrow. Dealer positioning has changed from neutral/slightly bullish to neutral/slightly bearish.
Looking Ahead to Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $686 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also buying $684 to $685 Calls implying the Dealers desire to participate in any continuation of the rally this week. The ceiling for the week appears to be $690. To the downside, Dealers are buying $683 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying, reflecting a market that continues to be hedged but one which the Dealers believe, at least for the week, has found its bottom. For the week Dealer positioning has changed from slightly bearish/neutral to bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

Stick with the roadmap. Buy pullbacks to $680 or breakout confirmations above $686. Avoid chasing strength into resistance. Monitor headlines closely. Be patient, focused, and aligned with structure and MSI cues. This remains a trader’s market.

Good luck and good trading!