Market Insights: Wednesday, November 11th, 2026
Market Overview
Wall Street bounced back Wednesday as Nvidia (NVDA) and the rest of the chip crowd rebounded, even as traders leaned harder into bets on a Fed rate hike next month. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 1.6%, officially wiping out its post-election losses by the close. Stocks traded as usual on Veterans Day, but the bond market was closed. Tech led the way, and Nvidia is finally catching a break after two brutal sessions tied to the spy-plot scandal around CEO Jensen Huang. Still, the stock is down about 14% in November and has shed roughly $700 billion in market value. Huang admitted to the affair Sunday in an email to employees, and the stock has fallen about 12% since the news broke. Now even Nvidia's loyal investors are getting antsy. Strategists at the Kobeissi Letter said the market is pricing in two big risks: Huang could be pushed out as CEO, and sensitive Nvidia technology or information may have been compromised. Nvidia's board has launched an independent investigation into reports that the woman was a Chinese government spy. The AI trade stays front and center as Anthropic's IPO approaches, especially with the midterms leaving the country at a crossroads on the data center build-out. Nvidia-backed CoreWeave (CRWV) popped as much as 24% after a better-than-expected revenue outlook driven by strong AI compute demand, and its results eased worries about how data centers get funded. That sparked a rally in AI power providers, led by Bloom Energy (BE), which jumped about 16% by midday. Bloom's late-October quarter was a mixed bag. The fuel cell maker posted record revenue of $1.24 billion, up 138% from a year earlier, raised its 2026 revenue guidance for the third time this year to $4.4 billion to $4.6 billion, and joined the S&P 500. On the flip side, operating cash flow was negative $27.1 million, and capital spending rose to $153.5 million, nearly triple its second-quarter level.
Rate worries haven't gone anywhere. Treasury yields spiked again Tuesday as traders reworked their bets after the hot CPI report, and Fed governor Michelle Bowman added fuel to the bond rout by saying, "There is still work to do to bring inflation closer to 2%." This was the third straight month of bad inflation news, with prices climbing for food, rent, medical care, and electronics. That affordability crunch was a big driver for voters in the midterms. Bank of America analysts warned that "goods prices are becoming a problem (again)," with the firmness spreading to things Americans both need and want. Wall Street already figured a December hike was basically locked in, but the latest numbers were ugly enough that analysts are now weighing more hikes and bigger ones. Crypto joined the risk-on mood, with bitcoin up more than 1% to hover near $74,500 and Ether also rising 1% to hold above $2,000. It's a quiet day for earnings and economic data, with just a mortgage rate update due later. Retail excitement over Anthropic is heating up fast. Vanda Research says everyday investors could pour a record $250 million into the stock on its first trading day next week, more than double the $118 million in net retail buying on SpaceX's June debut. That estimate rests on a surge in Anthropic-linked derivatives on crypto exchange Hyperliquid, where volume hit a record $270 million Tuesday, nearly triple last week's daily pace, according to Vanda strategist Viraj Patel. Vanda found that retail trading in recent IPOs' opening days, SpaceX included, ran about five times the peak daily volume in their pre-IPO derivatives.
SPY Performance
SPY opened at $756.80, a gap up from yesterday's close of $750.01. That put the open right back above the $752.41 level the bulls needed to reclaim, and it also cleared the prior high of $755.42 before the first trade even printed. Buyers didn't waste time. They pushed through $757.07 and drove SPY to a session high of $762.51, stalling just shy of the $762.64 level that marks the next real test. Sellers took a brief swing early and pushed SPY to a session low of $754.91, but they never came close to threatening $752.41. SPY finished at $759.84, near the top of the day's range and comfortably above the open.
SPY jumped 1.32%, and this is the kind of follow-through the bulls were looking for. Yesterday's pause turned out to be exactly that, just a breather before the next leg higher. Volume came in at 33.08 million shares, below average and a touch lighter than yesterday. That's not a huge concern, but it does show this rally wasn't fueled by a stampede of new buyers. It looks more like sellers simply stepped aside and let prices float higher. The fear gauge told a much louder story. The VIX dropped 10.17% to close at 17.48, a sharp slide that pushes it further away from 20. When SPY rips higher and the VIX collapses like that, it signals traders are unwinding their protection and getting comfortable with risk again.
Today confirmed that the breakout was real and not a one-day wonder. With SPY back above $752.41 and also past $755.42 and $757.07, those levels now flip into support underneath the market. The first area to watch on a pullback is $757.07, followed by today's low of $754.91 and then $752.41 as the line the bulls absolutely need to hold. On the upside, $762.64 is the immediate hurdle after SPY came within a hair of it today. A clean close above that level would open the door for another push to new territory. The only knock is the lighter volume, which suggests conviction could be stronger. Still, a falling VIX, a strong close near the highs, and a decisive move through resistance keep the bigger picture firmly tilted bullish.
Major Indices Performance
The Nasdaq stormed back to lead the pack with a 1.6% gain, flipping the script after bringing up the rear in the prior session. Buyers returned to growth and tech with real conviction, and the index's heavy weighting toward those names turned yesterday's weakness into today's strength. Not every big tech name joined the party, but enough of the heavyweights pushed higher to more than offset the laggards. That kind of breadth inside tech tells us the dip was viewed as a buying opportunity rather than the start of something worse.
The Russell 2000 bounced 0.86%, recovering more than its prior-day loss as small-caps found their footing again. Risk appetite clearly came back, and smaller companies tend to benefit when investors feel confident enough to step out on the risk curve. Crude oil ticked up 0.35%, which adds a bit of cost pressure for domestic businesses, but it wasn't enough to slow the rebound. Small-caps showing they can quickly reclaim lost ground is a healthy sign for the broader market's underlying strength.
The Dow trailed with a 0.49% gain, the mirror image of yesterday when its defensive makeup made it the best performer. On a risk-on day, money rotates toward higher-growth names, so it makes sense that the steadier blue chips lagged behind. Still, a green finish shows that the buying was widespread instead of being limited to one corner of the market. The VIX dropped 10.17% to close at 17.48, moving further below the key 20 level and signaling that fear is draining out of the market fast. With only Unemployment Claims on Thursday's calendar, a report that's unlikely to shake things up, positioning and momentum will steer the indices, and the next test is whether the Nasdaq can keep its leadership or if rotation stalls the rally.
Notable Stock Movements
Tesla grabbed the top spot in the Magnificent Seven, jumping 2.91% and stretching its recovery to a fourth straight session. That kind of steady follow-through tells you buyers aren't just bargain hunting for a day. They're building positions and defending the stock on every dip. After a rough stretch earlier, Tesla has quietly become one of the more reliable names in the group, and if it keeps stacking green days, it could help carry big tech leadership while other heavyweights sort themselves out.
The rest of the group had a mostly green session, with four of the seven names finishing higher. The biggest relief was NVIDIA finally snapping its two-day losing streak and joining the winners, which takes some pressure off the market's most important AI stock. Microsoft was the notable laggard, sliding 2.26%, while Amazon and Meta also finished in the red after holding up well in the prior session. That rotation is interesting. Yesterday's bright spots cooled off while yesterday's problem child bounced, which suggests investors are still shuffling money around inside big tech rather than chasing every name at once. Still, a 4-3 split tilted toward the upside is a clear improvement in tone, and NVIDIA stabilizing is exactly what the group needed.
The broader market matched that upbeat mood, with solid gains across the board. Tech-heavy stocks led the charge, small caps posted healthy gains, and blue chips moved up more modestly, so this was a true risk-on day. Bitcoin climbed 1.13% to close above $74,551, recovering its recent loss and showing that speculative money came back alongside tech. The VIX dropped 10.17% to 17.48, a sharp drop in fear that shows investors are getting more comfortable taking on risk. Thursday brings Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM ET, which is unlikely to move the market, so the Magnificent Seven will mostly trade on momentum and positioning. If NVIDIA can build on its bounce and Tesla keeps rolling, the group could reclaim its leadership role. But if Microsoft's weakness spreads to other big names, the rally could lose some steam.
Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil steadied, edging up 0.35% to close at $86.34. After two straight sessions of selling, the small bounce suggests the market has found a floor for now, with buyers willing to step in as the geopolitical risk premium stops shrinking. The black gold remains below $90, but crude has rallied well above $70 and keeps defying longer-term model expectations, a sign that supply disruption fears and geopolitical tensions still have real staying power. The modest gain came alongside a strong risk-on day for stocks, so oil appears to be taking cues from improving sentiment rather than any fresh supply news. With only Unemployment Claims on Thursday's calendar, a report unlikely to shake things up, crude will likely keep trading on headlines. A sustained move this far above $70 keeps inflationary pressure in the picture and could complicate Fed policy if energy costs continue feeding into the data.
Gold extended its slide, falling 0.91% to close at $3,994. That marks a break below the key $4,000 level we flagged as the line in the sand, and it shifts the short-term picture in favor of the bears. With money rotating back into risk assets and fear easing across the market, safe-haven demand took a back seat. The long-term drivers of inflation uncertainty, steady central bank buying, and lingering geopolitical tensions haven't gone away, so this still looks more like a cooling-off period than a broken trend. Even so, the yellow metal now needs to reclaim $4,000 quickly to avoid inviting a deeper round of selling. A fast recovery would turn this into a shakeout, but a failure to get back above that level could open the door to more downside.
Bitcoin bounced 1.13% to close above $74,551, recovering a good portion of the prior session's losses. As a high-beta asset, crypto tends to follow the broader appetite for risk, and Wednesday's upbeat tone gave buyers enough confidence to step back in. Still, Bitcoin remains well below the $80,000 psychological level, so the recovery effort has a lot left to prove. One green day doesn't erase the pattern of failed bounces, and buyers will need follow-through to change the narrative. With a light calendar Thursday, Bitcoin will lean on overall risk sentiment for direction. A push back above $80,000 would signal real repair, while a quick fade would keep the bears in control.
Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield edged up 0.30% today to close at exactly 5%, and that is the line we have been warning about for days. The surprise is that stocks shrugged it off completely. After yesterday's jump rattled equities, today's smaller move pushed the 10-year onto the serious-risk threshold while buyers rushed back in. That disconnect won't last forever. Either stocks are right that yields are close to topping, or the bond market is about to force a reality check.
The threshold picture is now as tight as it gets. The 4.5% level where equity valuations start to feel the squeeze sits 50 basis points below today's close, and the 4.8% mark that usually triggers broader selling is 20 basis points underneath. The 5% serious-risk flag had a 2-basis-point cushion yesterday and has none today, so the 10-year is sitting right on it. The gap to 5.2%, where the framework calls for a 20% or greater correction, narrowed to 20 basis points. A close above 5% would confirm the first serious-risk signal of this stretch.
Equities acted as if the bond market didn't exist. The Nasdaq jumped 1.6%, the Russell 2000 gained 0.86%, and the Dow added 0.49%. Rate-sensitive growth names and small caps leading is the opposite of what you would expect with yields at 5%, which tells us traders are betting on a near-term peak in rates. The VIX dropped 10.17% to 17.48, a sharp unwind of fear that looks a bit complacent given where the 10-year sits. Crude rose 0.35% to $86.34, keeping inflation pressure alive under the surface. Gold fell 0.91% to $3,994, extending its slide as higher real yields keep weighing on non-yielding assets.
Thursday brings Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM ET. The report is unlikely to move markets much on its own, but a surprisingly strong number could give yields the push they need to break above 5%. That is the key risk to watch. A slip back toward 4.9% would validate today's rally and give stocks real room to run. A clean close above 5%, with volatility this subdued, would leave equities badly exposed to a fast reversal.
Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Heading into Wednesday, our AI model projected SPY's maximum range at $746 to $759, with the Put side dominating in an expanding band. The model called for trending price action with intermittent chop, and with an empty economic calendar, the session was expected to trade purely on technicals and positioning. Because SPY had finished in the lower half of its prior projected range and the band carried a Put-heavy tilt, the forecast set a bearish bias. The VIX had dropped 1.96% to 19.53, which was read as a modest easing in fear but not enough to flip the near-term tone back to the bulls.
The forecast identified the $750 to $755 zone as the key battleground, with $750 described as the line in the sand bulls needed to defend. Support was mapped at $747, $744, and $740, with a break of $740 opening the door toward $735. On the upside, $755 was the first resistance to clear, followed by $757, then $760 and $765, with the $759 top of the range sitting just below the $760 round number. The bigger picture was framed as bullish, with SPY well above structural support near $640 and the long-term trend intact.
The recommended strategy was to run about three-quarters of normal size given the VIX's proximity to 20. The favored long was buying a dip into $747, targeting $750 and then $755, with stops below $744. A clean break and retest of $755 would set up a breakout long toward $757 and $759, with stops below $750. On the short side, the cleanest trade was fading a failed rally into $755, targeting $750 and $747, with stops above $757. A conviction break of $744 would flip the playbook to shorting a failed retest from underneath, targeting $740 with stops above $747. The closing message was simple: buy holds at $747, short rallies at $755, and let the levels confirm before acting.
Market Performance vs. Forecast
Wednesday's session pushed modestly beyond the top of the model's projected maximum range of $746 to $759, as momentum and a sharp unwind in fear carried price past the model's base case scenario. SPY opened at $756.80, reached a high of $762.51, dipped to a low of $754.91 and closed at $759.84, up 1.32%, on volume of 33.08M, below average. With an empty economic calendar, the forecast said technicals and positioning would drive the tape and called for trending price action with intermittent chop. The session delivered the trending side of that call in clean fashion. The model does not account for unpredictable shifts in sentiment or external events, and Wednesday's rally showed how quickly a cooling VIX can fuel buying beyond the projected ceiling. Even so, the close landed right at the $759 top of the range, showing how closely that boundary tracked where the session settled.
The key levels shaped the day just as the forecast laid out. The model named the $750 to $755 zone as the key battleground and flagged $755 as the first resistance bulls needed to clear. SPY opened above it, and the session low held just a hair beneath $755, turning that former resistance into a launch pad for the rest of the day. The forecast stated that a push through $755 "opens the door toward $757," with $760 above that, and price ran through both. It also warned that if $755 broke and held, Wednesday "could turn into a trend day toward $757 and $760," which is exactly what unfolded. The $765 resistance stayed out of reach, consistent with the guidance not to count on it without a catalyst. The long-term bull trend above structural support near $640 remains firmly intact, and the dip-buying environment the forecast highlighted proved its worth as buyers kept pressing all session.
On the rising market side, the breakout playbook was the star. The setup called for buying a clean retest of $755 as support, targeting $757 and then $759, with stops below $750. Price dipped to the $755 area early, held, and climbed through both targets. The plan to take most profits at $759 and let a small runner ride toward $760 paid off as the high cleared that round number. The favored $747 dip-buy never formed because price never came close to that level, which kept traders out of a setup that didn't materialize. On the falling market side, the $755 short never set up as a failed rally from below since SPY opened above that level and held it, and for any shorts that did engage, risk management protocols protected capital through the predefined stops above $757. The $744 breakdown trade never came into play.
The VIX dropped 10.17% to 17.48, a decisive move away from the 20 mark that confirmed the bullish turn. The forecast specifically tied long setups to the VIX staying below 19.53 and warned shorts to watch for a push above 20, so that signal pointed traders in the right direction all session. Below-average volume suggests the move came from fading fear and short covering rather than a rush of new money, which makes the next test of follow-through especially important. The model mapped the battleground, the breakout trigger and the upside targets that defined the day. The framework adapts as conditions shift, and Wednesday showed how layered scenarios, clear triggers and disciplined stops keep traders on the right side of the tape even when sentiment swings faster than the base case projects.
Premarket Analysis Summary
The premarket analysis, posted before the opening bell, set up Wednesday's session with SPY at $756.29 in a firmly call-dominated tape. Price was gapping sharply higher after Tuesday's fade had lost $752 and $750, and the gap took all of that back to land just above $755. The bias hinged on $755, the gate SPY was sitting on and the heaviest concentration on the board. Holding above it would let the tape pin and grind higher, while losing it cleanly would start filling the gap. The expected move ran from $747 to $761, about seven points, with far more room priced below than above, and the notes cautioned that a call-dominated tape favored pinning near levels over running them. Upside targets started at $757 as the immediate step, then $760 as a major round number and the heaviest resistance overhead at the top of the expected move. Beyond that, $762 was the next decision point and $765 was max upside. On the downside, $752 was first support and Tuesday's defining level, $750 was the most important level below and a heavy two-way battle, $747 was the point of last hope, and $745 was max downside.
The gate held, and the upside map played out almost level for level. SPY opened at $756.80, safely above the $755 pivot, and the only real test came at the low of $754.91, which dipped beneath $755 by just nine cents before buyers snapped it right back. From there, bulls cleared $757, pushed through the critical $760 test, and tagged a high of $762.51, reaching the $762 decision point and briefly breaking above the top of the expected move. Sellers defended that area, and SPY closed at $759.84, up 1.32% on 33.08M shares of below-average volume, finishing just a hair under $760. The downside levels were never in play, with $752 untouched all session. The VIX dropped 10.17% to 17.48, a sharp unwind in fear that confirmed the gap had real support. The key takeaway is that $755 did its job as a floor and $760 acted as a magnet, exactly the pinning behavior a call-dominated tape tends to produce. Closing above $760 will now be the test of whether bulls can make a real run at $765.
Validation of the Analysis
Wednesday delivered the gap higher the premarket notes opened with, and the map's bullish script played out almost to the penny. The notes were written with spot at 756.29 and named 755 as "the gate we're sitting on and the heaviest concentration on the board," with a clear conditional: "hold above it and the tape pins and grinds higher." SPY opened at $756.80, 51 cents above spot and right above that gate. The one real test came at the low of $754.91, just 9 cents beneath 755, and buyers defended it immediately. With the pivot holding, the notes' roadmap took over: "Hold 755 and 757 comes quickly with 760 the real test." That's exactly how it unfolded. SPY cleared 757, "the first target and the immediate step," then pushed through 760, the level the notes called "the heaviest resistance overhead" and "the level bulls really need."
The rally carried one step further, into 762, the "next decision point." The high printed at $762.51, only 51 cents above that level, and that's where the decision went to the sellers. Price faded back toward the 760 round number, and SPY settled at $759.84, up 1.32% and just 16 cents below the line the notes flagged as the real test. That close lines up with the notes' call that a call-dominated tape "favors pinning near the levels over running them." The 765 max upside sat $2.49 above the high and never came into play. The 7.60-point range ran close to the roughly seven-point expected move, with the high stretching $1.51 past the 761 top. On the downside, 752, 750, 747, and 745 never entered the picture, with 752 sitting $2.91 below the low. The VIX dropped 10.17% to 17.48, confirming the risk-on tone the gap pointed to.
The trading value came from knowing which level mattered most before the bell. The main setup was the long on the defense of 755. Buying near the $754.91 low with tight risk paid 2.09 points into 757, 5.09 points into 760, and 7.09 points into 762. The second opportunity came at 762 itself. With the map marking it as a decision point above the expected move's resistance zone, the rejection at $762.51 set up a clean fade that paid 2.67 points into the close near 760. Just as important, the map kept traders from leaning short on a gap that held its pivot. With 755 never lost on a closing basis, there was no reason to press puts toward 752 or 750. Heading into Thursday, bulls need to reclaim 762 to put 765 back on the table. Bears need a clean break under 755, followed by a loss of 752, to bring 750 back into view.
Looking Ahead
Thursday brings a single release worth watching, with weekly Unemployment Claims hitting the wires at 8:30 AM ET. It's rated medium impact, so it's not the kind of report that usually flips the market on its head, but it still matters. Jobless claims are one of the most up-to-date reads on the labor market, and right now every piece of jobs data feeds directly into how investors think the Fed will handle its next move. A jump in claims would hint that layoffs are picking up and the economy is cooling, which could boost hopes for easier policy down the road. A drop would suggest the job market is still holding firm, which might push rate cut expectations further out and put some pressure on growth names.
Since this is the only scheduled catalyst, expect the first few minutes after 8:30 AM ET to set the tone, and then watch whether that early reaction holds or fades. If the number lands close to recent trends, the market will likely shrug it off and go back to trading on sector rotation and individual stock headlines. A big surprise in either direction is what could spark a real move. Don't chase the opening spike before you see whether buyers or sellers actually follow through. Use the session to fine-tune your positions, keep your stops in place, and stay patient until the market shows you which way it wants to go.
Market Sentiment and Key Levels
Wednesday belonged to the bulls, and they made it count. Buyers took control early, pushed SPY to fresh highs intraday, and held most of those gains into the close despite a little profit-taking late in the session. Conviction still wasn't overwhelming, with lighter-than-average volume suggesting this was a steady grind higher rather than a stampede. Breadth was positive across the board. The Nasdaq led with a 1.6% gain, the Russell 2000 added 0.86%, and the Dow rose 0.49%. Tech leading the charge tells you growth appetite is back. Mega-cap leadership was mostly green, though a few heavyweights lagged and one took a notable hit. Risk-on flows showed up elsewhere too. Bitcoin climbed 1.13% while gold slipped 0.91%, so traders were rotating toward speculative assets and away from safe havens. The VIX dropped 10.17% to 17.48, which is a sharp reduction in fear that fits with buyers stepping in confidently. Elevated yields remain a background risk, but for now bulls have the upper hand.
SPY is now parked just under first resistance at $760, and with only Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday's calendar, technicals will likely drive the tape. A clean break above $760 opens the door to $762, followed by $764 and $765. On the downside, losing $758 likely sends price toward $754, then $752 and $748. If that lowest support fails, there's little to keep SPY from sliding toward $745. Zoom out and the long-term bull trend remains intact, with SPY sitting well above structural support at $640. As long as those key structural levels hold, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Thursday's projected maximum range runs from $748 to $764, with the Call side dominating in an expanding band that points to trending price action mixed with intermittent chop. That Call-side tilt suggests buyers could take another run at the highs, so an early push higher wouldn't be surprising. Watch whether mega-cap tech and crypto can keep their momentum, because fading leadership would be the first sign this rally is running out of steam. With SPY closing in the upper half of the projected range, we favor shorting rallies near $764. Keep size measured given the bullish options skew, and treat a decisive close above $765 as the signal to step aside on the short side.
Expected Price Action
Thursday's session brings actionable intelligence generated by our AI model, which projects SPY's maximum range at $748 to $764. With the Call side dominating in an expanding band, the model is calling for trending price action with intermittent chop. The economic calendar offers Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM ET, but that report is unlikely to move the market, so the tape will lean on technicals and positioning for direction. SPY finished in the upper half of Thursday's projected range, and that, paired with a Call-heavy tilt to the band, shifts our bias bullish heading into Thursday. The VIX dropped 10.17% to 17.48, a significant reduction in fear showing that buyers stepped back in with real confidence, and a move like that gives the bulls the near-term edge after a shaky stretch.
The key battleground for Thursday is the $758 to $760 zone, the tight band that has defined recent trading. $760 is first resistance and a major round number, and a clean break above it opens the door to $762. Beyond that, $764 marks the top of the model's range, with $765 sitting just above as the final cap on the upside. On the downside, $758 is first support and the level bulls need to hold to keep the momentum going. A loss of $758 targets $754, with $752 below that. The lowest support sits at $748, the bottom of the model's range, and if that gives way there is little to keep price from falling toward $745. The bigger picture remains intact, with SPY well above structural support near $640 and the long-term bull trend still firmly in place. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment.
In the short run, the playbook favors shorting rallies near $764, since that level sits at the top of the projected range and offers a defined spot to lean against with $765 just overhead. Keep risk tight given the bullish bias and Call-side dominance, because a clean break above $765 would signal that buyers have taken full control and the short trade is wrong. If price slips below $758 early, don't panic. A pullback toward $754 or $752 fits a dip-buying environment and is a better spot to look for longs than chasing strength into resistance. If $748 breaks and holds, step aside on the long side, because Thursday could turn into a trend day lower toward $745. Chop is part of the forecast, so expect some back-and-forth around $758 to $760 before the real direction shows itself, and don't overreact to the first swing off the open. With a quiet calendar and fear cooling sharply, Thursday sets up as a test of whether buyers can push through $760 or whether the rally stalls beneath the top of the range.
Trading Strategy
The VIX dropped 10.17% to 17.48, a sharp washout in fear that puts it comfortably below the 20 mark and tells you buyers are stepping in with real confidence. A drop that steep often gets partially retraced, though, so don't treat it as a free pass to load up. Thursday brings Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM ET, which is unlikely to move the market, so technicals and positioning will keep doing the driving. The Call side dominates an expanding band, and the model calls for trending action with intermittent chop. Expect an upward lean with some head fakes mixed in. Normal size is reasonable here, but keep some dry powder since price is already sitting in the upper half of the projected range.
In a rising market scenario, buying a dip into $754 is the cleanest long on the board. The Call-dominant band gives bulls a structural tailwind, and $754 is where buyers stepped in during the session, which makes it a logical line in the sand. The trigger is price pulling back to $754, holding, and firming up, ideally with the VIX staying below 17.48. The first profit target is $758, with $760 next if buyers keep pressing. Stops on longs belong below $752. If bulls clear $762 and hold it, don't chase the breakout. Buy a clean retest of $762 as support instead, targeting $764. Stops on that breakout trade belong below $760. Since the projected high sits at $764, take most profits there and let only a small runner ride toward $765. Without a fresh catalyst, don't count on much beyond that.
In a falling market scenario, shorting a failed rally into $764 is our favored trade overall. With price already in the upper half of the projected range, the reward for chasing higher is thin, and the top of the band is where sellers are most likely to show up. A pop into $764 that stalls and rolls over is the trigger, especially if the VIX bounces off 17.48 while price struggles under resistance. The first profit target is $760, with $758 next. Stops on shorts belong above $765. If $748 gives way with conviction, flip the playbook and short a failed retest of $748 from underneath, targeting $745. Stops on that breakdown trade belong back above $752. A break of $748 puts SPY below the projected low, so take most profits at $745 and keep only a small runner. By that point the move is stretched, so shorts should be booking gains, not adding.
The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640, and the bigger picture is still a dip-buying environment. The Call-dominant band gives bulls the short-term edge, but price sitting near the top of the projected range tilts the risk-reward toward fading strength rather than chasing it. With little on the calendar to shake things up, let the levels do the talking and wait for price to confirm before acting. Scale out in layers, respect your stops, and watch for the VIX to snap back after such a steep drop. Short rallies at $764 and buy holds at $754 until one side breaks the range.
Model’s Projected Range
SPY's projected maximum range for Thursday is $748 to $764, with the Call side dominating in an expanding band that suggests trending price action with intermittent chop. On the calendar, Thursday, November 12 brings Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM ET, which is unlikely to move the market. SPY closed at $759.84, up 1.32%, after opening at $756.80, dipping to a low of $754.91, and pushing as high as $762.51 before giving back a bit into the close. SPY remains in the $758 to $760 range that has defined recent trading, and without a major macro headline driving flows, price is leaning on technicals for direction. Looking at Thursday, a clean break above first resistance at $760 opens the door to $762, while a loss of first support at $758 targets $754, and if the lowest support at $748 gives way, there is little to keep price from falling toward $745. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 with SPY well above structural support. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $760, $762, $764, $765, while support rests at $758, $754, $752, $748. With SPY closing in the upper half of the projected range, we favor shorting rallies near $764. Bitcoin added 1.13% to close above $74,551, and the MAG stocks had a mostly green day led by Tesla up 2.91%, with Microsoft the notable laggard down 2.26%, so both leadership groups showed strength that supports the broader rally. The VIX closed at 17.48, down 10.17%, suggesting a significant reduction in fear as buyers stepped back in with confidence. SPY closed within its uptrend channel with structural support near $748.
Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast
Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended Wednesday in a Bullish Trending Market State with SPY closing at $759.84. With SPY finishing above the upper MSI line, MSI resistance at $755.11 now flips to support for Thursday, and $752.59 sits below it as the lower level. Wednesday was a big day for the bulls. The MSI rescaled sharply higher overnight and moved from a Ranging state to a Bullish Trending state. Extended targets printed above through most of the premarket and kept printing until about the open. By the open the MSI had settled into its end-of-day range, and it stayed Bullish Trending from the open through the close. Early in the AM session SPY dipped right to MSI resistance-turned-support, and extended targets paused briefly. Buyers stepped in, price launched higher, and extended targets resumed late in the AM session. They kept printing all through the PM session and into the close, so they were virtually non-stop all day. SPY closed up over 1.3%, and QQQ did even better, gaining close to 3% before pulling back into the close. The MSI range is a moderate $2.52.
For Thursday, the MSI is forecasting a strong continuation higher with the bulls maintaining control and extended targets above suggesting upside momentum will persist. The MSI calls for higher prices as long as $755 holds. A break above $763 would be very bullish, while a drop below $755 would turn things bearish, with chop possible in between. Extended targets printing above at the close show buyers were still in charge into the bell. SPY sits above the MSI, so watch for a possible rescale before the open and follow its cues. MSI support is $752.59 with resistance at $755.11.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
Tuesday we stated, "Bulls want to see overnight price hold $750 and quickly reclaim $750.34, then push through $752.11 toward $755 and Monday's $755.42 high," and added, "To keep the momentum going, they need the MSI to rescale higher before the open with extended targets printing above again," while also noting, "A clean break above $752.11 with extended targets printing above opens the door to $758." The bulls got all of it and then some. The MSI rescaled sharply higher overnight, shifted from Ranging to Bullish Trending, and extended targets printed above through most of the premarket. SPY opened at $756.80, already above $755 and Monday's $755.42 high, so the overnight push did the heavy lifting before the bell.
The only real test of the day came early in the AM session. SPY pulled back to a low of $754.91, right on top of MSI resistance-turned-support at $755.11, and extended targets paused briefly. That level held. Buyers jumped in and price launched higher, with extended targets above picking back up late in the AM session. The $758 target from Tuesday fell easily, and SPY pushed to a high of $762.51. Extended targets above kept printing through the PM session and into the close, and SPY settled at $759.84. That was a textbook trend day with one clean dip and a steady grind higher after it.
The framework offered two clean setups. The first was the early dip. With SPY trading above the MSI and the state Bullish Trending, the play was buying the pullback into MSI resistance-turned-support near $755 and targeting the premarket levels above, since there was no MSI target overhead. That trade bought the $754.91 low and rode through $758. The second came once extended targets resumed late in the AM session. Buying shallow pullbacks toward the premarket levels as they held, and riding them toward the $762.51 high, kept traders on the right side of the trend through the PM session. Together those trades captured most of a nearly $8 move. At minimum it was a 2-for-2 session for traders following the framework.
SPY rose 1.32% on volume of 33.08 million shares, below average, and the VIX dropped 10.17% to 17.48. A double-digit drop in the VIX with SPY up over 1.3% shows fear draining out of the market as buyers took control. It was an easy day to read and execute with substantial setups, all identified through proper context, patience, and flexibility while leveraging the MSI, premarket levels, and market structure rather than forcing trades. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Thursday has light economic news with only Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM ET, a medium-impact release, but the moderate bullish MSI with extended targets above suggests continuation higher is the most likely outcome. The MSI closed in a Bullish Trending state with a moderate $2.52 range and extended targets printing above into the close. That points to a strong continuation higher with the bulls maintaining control and upside momentum likely to persist. $755.11 is MSI resistance-turned-support and $752.59 sits just below it. Above, $760, Wednesday's $762.51 high, and $763 are the levels to watch. Below, $755.11, Wednesday's $754.91 low, and $752.59 mark the downside.
Bulls want to see overnight price hold the $759 to $760 area and push toward Wednesday's $762.51 high and $763. A clean break above $763 is the MSI's very bullish trigger. To keep the run going, they need the MSI to rescale higher before the open with extended targets printing above again. A dip toward $755.11 isn't a problem for the bulls as long as it holds and gets bought, just like Wednesday morning. Bears want to see $755.11 fail with the MSI rescaling lower and extended targets printing below. That would press SPY toward $752.59 and turn the MSI's outlook bearish. Given how cleanly buyers defended $755 on Wednesday, that would take a real shift, and the MSI isn't calling for it.
The bias favors longs until the MSI shifts. With SPY sitting above the MSI, watch for a possible rescale before the open and anchor to whatever new levels it sets. If the MSI holds Bullish Trending, buy dips to $755.11 and target $760, then $762.51 and $763. A clean break above $763 with extended targets printing above opens the door to another leg higher. A failed breakout above $763 without extended targets printing above offers a short back toward $760 and $755.11. Between $755 and $763, chop is possible, so be patient and let price come to the levels. If price dips below $755.11 early, a quick flush that holds and reclaims $755.11 offers a higher-quality long back toward $760. A clean break of $755.11 with extended targets printing below flips the play to selling rallies into $755.11 while targeting $752.59. Let the MSI confirm before pressing in either direction.
The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 and failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups. Remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States unless a clear failed breakout or breakdown presents itself, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven't yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.
Dealer Positioning Analysis
Dealers are selling SPY $760 to $795 and higher strike Calls, indicating the Dealers' belief that any rally on Thursday may have limited room to run. They are not buying ATM Calls, but they have reduced their hedges somewhat, which implies less concern about a declining market. The ceiling for Thursday appears to be $765. Dealers are also selling $759 to $754 Puts, and Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $754, so that Put selling points to their belief that higher prices are in store for Thursday. To the downside, Dealers are buying $753 to $700 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying some lingering concern that prices could move lower. SPY moved up strongly on Wednesday, but it was QQQ that stole the show with the AI trade back in favor. There is a Call wall at $763 that should provide some resistance given the positive gamma environment, while the Put wall at $760 should provide support. Positive gamma leads Dealers to support and defend these levels, which results in more mean reversion trades rather than pressing the trend. A sustained break above $763 could trigger additional buying toward $765, while losing $760 would give the bears some hope of reversing part of Wednesday's rally. Above $763 is bullish and below $760 is bearish, with chop and traps in between. Dealer positioning is unchanged at bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $760 to $805 and higher strike Calls, indicating the Dealers' belief that price may stabilize near these levels into Friday, since they are not buying ATM Calls or selling ATM Puts. The ceiling for the week appears to be $770. To the downside, Dealers are buying $759 to $700 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, so they remain heavily hedged against further downside. The Call wall at $763 should provide resistance given the positive gamma environment, while the Put wall at $760 should provide support. Positive gamma leads Dealers to support and defend these levels, which favors mean reversion behavior rather than pressing the trend. A sustained break above $763 could trigger additional buying toward $770, while losing $760 would give the bears some hope of reversing the last three days' rally. Above $763 is bullish and below $760 is bearish, with chop and traps in between. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged at bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.
Recommendation for Traders
Short rallies near $764, targeting $758 and $754, with stops above $765.
With Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM ET, keep size disciplined and review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET for any changes in the model's outlook and Dealer Positioning.
Good luck and good trading!
