Market Insights: Wednesday, November 11th, 2025

Market Overview

Stocks ended mixed on Tuesday as a rotation out of tech pressured the Nasdaq, while optimism around a potential resolution to the 41-day U.S. government shutdown lifted the Dow to a new record close. The blue-chip index surged more than 500 points, or 1.2%, on growing confidence that the House would pass a Senate-approved funding measure to reopen the government through January 30. The prospect of a formal end to the shutdown drove broad buying outside of tech and helped underpin sentiment across cyclicals and industrials.

The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.2%, weighed down by weakness in AI-related names. Nvidia fell 2.9% after SoftBank confirmed it had exited its entire position in the chipmaker to fund internal AI initiatives, raising concerns about stretched valuations across the space. CoreWeave, another AI infrastructure name, dropped 15% after lowering its revenue outlook despite topping earnings expectations. The pullback in AI-linked names raised fresh questions about the durability of the recent rally, especially as leadership continues to narrow.

Despite softness in tech, the broader market held firm on shutdown optimism. A resolution would not only restore government operations but also pave the way for the release of delayed economic data, including October CPI and PPI. Until then, investors are relying on private reports such as the ADP payrolls print, which showed continued labor market weakness with an estimated 11,250 private-sector jobs lost per week in October. That trend, coupled with depressed consumer sentiment, is keeping macro uncertainty elevated even as equities trade near record levels.

Geopolitical concerns also reemerged after The Wall Street Journal reported that China is considering restrictions on rare earth mineral exports to the U.S. military. While narrow in scope, the move sparked supply chain concerns and added to the list of macro risks investors are monitoring. In total, Tuesday’s market reflected a cautious but constructive tone, with bulls maintaining control above key support zones despite weakness in several high-profile growth names. With the shutdown vote potentially imminent, market focus now turns to Thursday’s CPI report for confirmation on the inflation trend.

SPY Performance

SPY opened at $679.94 and climbed steadily throughout the session, hitting an intraday high of $683.57 before closing at $682.91, up 0.22%. Volume came in light at 53.18 million shares, below average and suggesting limited conviction behind the move. Nonetheless, SPY held above critical support at $680, with immediate resistance now at $684, $685, and $688. Support levels include $682, $677, and $675.

Major Indices Performance

The Dow led Tuesday’s advance with a 1.18% gain, as rotation into cyclical and value stocks drove broad strength. The S&P 500 rose 0.22%, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.25%, reflecting weakness in large-cap tech and AI. The Russell 2000 added 0.12%, with small caps trading in line with broader risk sentiment.

Notable Stock Movements

The Magnificent Seven closed mixed. Apple led with a 2.16% gain, while Nvidia declined 2.9% on the back of SoftBank’s full exit. CoreWeave dropped 15% despite a revenue beat, as lower forward guidance rattled investors. Most other megacaps traded flat to higher, helping the broader tape hold firm even as growth leadership came under pressure.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil gained 1.33% to close at $60.93, extending its recovery trend. Our model maintains a bullish outlook above $56, with potential for a move toward $70 if current levels hold. Gold added 0.34% to settle at $4,135, while Bitcoin fell 2.65% to $102,800, continuing to struggle with volatility and positioning headwinds.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield declined slightly to 4.070%, still comfortably below the critical 4.5% stress threshold. As long as yields remain in this zone, equity markets are likely to stay supported. A move above 4.8% would begin to pressure risk assets more broadly.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Tuesday’s rally confirmed the model’s bullish bias. The roadmap expected a push through $681.40–$682 to trigger upside toward $683 and $685. SPY opened above the bias zone, tested support early, then advanced steadily to $683.57 before fading into the close. The rejection near $685 matched expectations and validated the day’s forecast.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

Tuesday’s projected range was $677 to $685. SPY traded between $678.73 and $683.57, staying within forecasted bounds. The close at $682.91 confirmed the roadmap’s directional accuracy. While volume was light, the structural integrity of the move remained intact.

Premarket Analysis Summary

The premarket roadmap noted a bullish bias above $681.40 with resistance targets at $683 and $685. SPY followed the path closely, clearing the bias zone early and continuing higher throughout the morning. The roadmap warned of slowing momentum into $685, which materialized with the late-day stall and fade from the highs.

Validation of the Analysis

Tuesday’s session validated the MSI's Bullish Trending Market State and respected both support and resistance levels. The clean move through $681.40 and rejection below $685 offered multiple actionable setups. Traders aligned with the roadmap saw well-structured opportunities both on the breakout and during the afternoon pause.

Looking Ahead

SPY’s projected range for Wednesday is $677.25 to $688.25. If the shutdown vote succeeds, bulls may attempt a push toward $688 or $690 ahead of Thursday’s CPI print. A failure at $685 would open a window for consolidation. Support rests at $682, $677, $675, and $672. A confirmed break below $675 would shift near-term bias back to neutral.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY closed at $682.91, holding above the critical $680 level and confirming bullish structure. The VIX declined 1.82% to 17.28, reflecting improved sentiment. With $685 now the key resistance to break, bulls will look to build on Tuesday’s momentum. A strong CPI print Thursday could be the next catalyst for a breakout.

Expected Price Action

Expect early attempts to break through $684–$685. If successful, the next resistance levels are $688 and $690. If SPY fails to hold above $682, a pullback to $677 or lower is likely. The market remains vulnerable to headlines, but structure currently favors upside continuation.

Trading Strategy

Buy dips to $680 or breakouts above $685 with confirmation. Avoid chasing strength without volume. Sell failed rallies into $688 or $690. Use the MSI and roadmap to identify entries aligned with market structure. Remain flexible and react to macro headlines as they unfold.

Model’s Projected Range

SPY’s projected maximum range for Wednesday sits between $677.25 and $688.25, with the Call side dominating in a narrow band that signals choppy price action punctuated by brief trending periods. There’s no economic data due Wednesday, leaving the ongoing government shutdown as the main driver of market sentiment and direction. Traders should continue to anticipate headline-driven volatility. Today the market extended its rally, closing up 0.23%, once again demonstrating the power of the prevailing bull trend and how quickly sentiment can flip when even modestly positive developments emerge from Washington. SPY has now fully recovered from last week’s sell-off, finishing at $683, well above the critical $680 level where the bulls maintain firm control of the tape. Volume came in below average, leaving some doubt about the conviction behind the move, but price remains king and momentum continues to favor the bulls. While the bears briefly gained traction last week, their efforts were short-lived, consistent with nearly every pullback seen this year. As long as SPY holds above $640, the broader bull trend remains structurally intact, and the bears have significant ground to recover before regaining any meaningful influence. Overnight, bulls will look to defend $680 to sustain the rally toward $685, where a brief pause or dip may develop before the next leg higher. Should $680 fail, SPY could retrace to $677, but holding that level keeps the door open for further upside toward $685, followed by consolidation ahead of a potential breakout to $690 and new all-time highs. Absent a catalyst, resistance for Wednesday sits at $684, $685, $688, and $690, with support at $682, $677, $675, and $672. A strong move above $685 could accelerate momentum, while a decisive break below $672 could expose $666 before more significant support emerges. Crypto fell sharply today while most Mag stocks advanced, creating a mixed, bifurcated market that warrants close monitoring for signs of underlying strength or weakness. As we’ve noted repeatedly, sustained softness in key leadership names or crypto could still spark the 10–15% correction we’ve been tracking, though today’s action once again pushed that risk further out. As long as leadership remains broadly intact, the path of least resistance continues to point higher. The VIX fell 1.82% to 17.28, reflecting renewed confidence and positioning consistent with a potential Santa rally. SPY closed well above the lower boundary of its bull channel from the April lows, and given last week’s brief break of that structure, the channel will likely be redrawn to align with the market’s evolving slope, tempering its trajectory while preserving the long-term bullish framework, which remains intact though increasingly tested. 

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended the session in a wide Bullish Trending Market State, with SPY closing just below MSI resistance. Extended targets printed in the afternoon session as SPY pushed above $680 to its current level. There were extended targets printing into the close. Overnight the MSI maintained its bullish state only starting to rescale after noon with several moves higher with extended targets above. For Wednesday the MSI is implying higher prices are likely. MSI support is $679.08 with resistance at $683.17.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Monday we wrote, “some follow-through on Tuesday is likely,” and noted, “Significant resistance sits near $685, a level that could cap price temporarily and even present a dip opportunity for bulls who missed Monday’s rally,” while also adding, “Tuesday’s session is expected to see SPY push toward $685, possibly with an overnight dip to as low as $676 before recovering. Our bias remains to favor longs over shorts.” With this context, and with the MSI opening in a bullish state following an overnight dip, our focus was entirely on identifying a clean long setup off support consistent with the plan. A well-formed triple bottom developed just above MSI support and a premarket level, prompting a long entry at $679 before 10:30 am, with T1 set at the premarket level of $681.40 and T2 at MSI resistance at $682. Both targets were hit before 1 pm, leaving us free to move our stop to breakeven and trail for further gains. As the MSI began rescaling higher and printing extended targets, we turned to the premarket structure for a logical exit level. $683.50 aligned perfectly and was tested multiple times, confirming it as significant resistance. When the MSI rescaled again, reinforcing that level, we decided to close the trade there and lock in profits. Another clean, one-and-done trade driven by patience, discipline, and seamless alignment between MSI signals, market structure, and our broader trading framework. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
After a strong three-day rally, there’s little to do now but let price action unfold and allow the market to reveal its next move. Our lean remains to trade with the prevailing trend, continuing to seek long setups from key support levels rather than chasing strength into resistance. We do expect some additional follow-through on Wednesday, though it’s also probable the market takes a breather, trading more sideways-to-up rather than continuing straight higher. The $685 level represents significant resistance and could temporarily cap price, possibly offering a dip-buying opportunity for bulls who missed the recent move. Of course, the House could derail everything if it fails to approve the Senate bill, but absent a major setback in resolving the shutdown, Wednesday’s session is likely to see SPY push toward $685, perhaps after an overnight dip as low as $680 before recovering. Our bias continues to favor longs over shorts, and we’ll remain cautious fading the highs, only looking for confirmed failed breakouts above $685 before considering short entries. The bulls are firmly back in control and appear intent on reaching new all-time highs; at this point, it’s a matter of when, not if. Market direction continues to hinge on White House headlines and other macro developments, demanding flexibility and disciplined execution. We anticipate a continued push toward $685 and potentially $690 in the coming days. With minimal economic data likely until the shutdown is resolved, traders must stay nimble and focused on trading what they see. On the downside, if $680 fails to hold, SPY could revisit lower levels, though that remains a low-probability scenario unless negative headlines emerge. With the VIX hovering near 17, still in neutral territory, risk is back on, though with some caution. A sustained drop below 16 would likely accelerate bullish momentum. The key structural threshold for the broader bull market remains $640, and only a decisive break below that level would shift long-term control to the bears. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups, so remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $684 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also selling $677 to $683 Puts indicating the Dealers belief that price has nowhere to go but up on Wednesday. Dealers only sell ATM Puts when they believe prices will move higher. The ceiling for Wednesday appears to be $689. To the downside, Dealers are buying $676 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls/Puts they’re selling/buying displaying little concern that prices could move lower tomorrow. Dealer positioning is unchanged from neutral/slightly bullish to neutral/slightly bullish.
Looking Ahead to Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $686 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also buying $683 to $686 Calls implying the Dealers desire to participate in any continuation of the rally this week. Dealers are no longer selling ATM Puts. The ceiling for the week appears to be $690. To the downside, Dealers are buying $682 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls/Puts they’re selling/buying, reflecting a market that continues to be hedged but one which the Dealers believe, at least for the week, has found its bottom. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged from slightly bearish/neutral to slightly bearish/neutral. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

Trade the roadmap. Buy dips into $680 or breakout setups above $685. Fade strength into $688 or $690 unless volume confirms. Watch for headline-driven whipsaws around the shutdown vote. Be selective, stay disciplined, and lean on structure for confirmation.

Good luck and good trading!