Market Insights: Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
Market Overview
Wall Street gave back some of Monday's big gains Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected inflation report locked in bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. The Dow slipped 0.3%, the S&P 500 fell roughly 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 0.7%. October's Consumer Price Index showed prices rising 0.4% from September, above the 0.3% economists expected but cooler than September's 0.6% jump. As expected, the report skipped annual figures because last year's government shutdown limited the available data. It took only five minutes for the numbers to knock stocks lower. Traders now overwhelmingly expect a 25 basis point hike, and some Fed watchers are even calling for a 50 basis point jumbo move after Fed governor Chris Waller said he'd be open to a bigger hike. At its worst, the S&P 500 was down nearly 1% midday, wiping out about $500 billion in market value, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell more than 1%. Here's the twist, though: the equal-weighted S&P 500 was down only about 0.2%, so the typical stock barely budged. The real damage was concentrated in Nvidia (NVDA), which hasn't been sold this hard, this fast since 2019. Shares fell more than 5% after Monday's 4% drop as the scandal around CEO Jensen Huang, who admitted to an affair with a tech executive suspected of being a Chinese intelligence asset, keeps fueling worries about regulatory scrutiny. The stock sliced through the $170 level chart watchers had flagged and was on track for its lowest close since March 30. Its relative strength index sank to 23 out of 100, its most oversold reading since June 2019. Chip stocks overall finished mixed after struggling to hold an early rebound.
The rate-hike jitters spilled well beyond stocks. Gold futures tumbled more than 2% to just above $4,000 per troy ounce as the US dollar strengthened, since higher yields on interest-bearing assets make the metal less attractive. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $73,000 as investors ditched riskier assets, slipping under its 200-day moving average of $73,200 by noon New York time. Lewis Huang, an analyst at crypto exchange Bitget, said a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields have been tough on bitcoin lately, warning that losing that key support "could increase the risk of a deeper pullback." Oil kept sliding too, with both Brent and WTI crude down around 1%. In other tech news, Anthropic kicked off its roadshow and released an updated filing ahead of its highly anticipated IPO, pushing forward with a $1.4 trillion valuation target despite the recent turbulence in tech. Most of third-quarter earnings season is behind us, but there's still some action after the bell, with Nvidia-backed neocloud CoreWeave (CRWV) and quantum computing names D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) all set to report.
SPY Performance
SPY opened at $747.94, a gap down from yesterday's close of $752.64. That put the open back under the $752.41 level the bulls had just reclaimed, so the breakout got tested right out of the gate. Sellers pushed SPY to a session low of $744.87, but they couldn't get anywhere near yesterday's opening area around $742.21. Buyers stepped in from there and worked SPY back up to a session high of $752.14. That rally stalled just short of $752.41, the exact level that needed defending. SPY finished at $750.01, above the open and well off the lows, but still beneath that key line.
SPY slipped 0.36%, and this is the kind of red day that doesn't raise many alarms. After a big rally like yesterday's, some giveback is normal, and the way SPY climbed off the lows shows dip buyers are still active. Volume tells you this wasn't a rush for the exits. Turnover came in at 34.08 million shares, below average and lighter than yesterday, so sellers weren't hitting the market with any real conviction. This looks more like traders catching their breath than fresh money heading out the door. The fear gauge backed that up. The VIX dropped 1.96% to close at 19.53, slipping a bit further under 20 even as stocks dipped. When SPY drifts lower and the VIX keeps easing, that's a sign of calm profit-taking, not fear creeping back in.
Today was a pause, not a reversal. The one knock is that SPY lost $752.41 and couldn't win it back, so that level flips back to near-term resistance. Above that, yesterday's high of $755.42 is the next hurdle, followed by $757.07 and $762.64. On the downside, today's low of $744.87 is the first line of support, with $742.21 and $732.71 still sitting underneath as a cushion. The light volume, a VIX holding under 20, and the bounce off the lows keep the bigger picture tilted bullish. The bulls just need to get back above $752.41 to prove yesterday's breakout wasn't a one-day wonder.
Major Indices Performance
The Dow held up best in a soft session, slipping just 0.3% as its steadier blue chips gave investors a place to hide while the more aggressive corners of the market cooled off. After a huge rally, it's normal to see money drift toward stability, and that's exactly what happened. The Dow lacks the heavy tech weighting that dragged on other indices, so it was shielded from the worst of the selling. A modest loss like this after such a strong prior run looks more like a breather than a breakdown.
The Russell 2000 gave back 0.64% after leading the charge in the prior session. Small-caps had sprinted ahead on that surge in risk appetite, so some profit-taking was almost guaranteed. The pullback was orderly, though, and nowhere near enough to erase the big gains small-caps just posted. Crude oil eased another 0.55%, which keeps some pressure off the fuel costs that smaller domestic companies feel most, and that backdrop should help limit the downside for this group if buyers return.
The Nasdaq brought up the rear with a 0.74% decline, and once again a heavyweight chip name was the main culprit. This time the rest of tech couldn't fully pick up the slack, though a few big names did finish green and kept the damage contained. The S&P 500 slipped 0.36%, landing between the Dow and the Russell, which points to mild, broad-based profit-taking rather than panic. The VIX dropped 1.96% to close at 19.53, holding below the key 20 level even on a red day. That's an encouraging sign that fear isn't creeping back in. With no economic news on Wednesday's calendar, technicals and positioning will steer the indices, and the market's next move will show whether this dip draws buyers or turns into a deeper pullback.
Notable Stock Movements
NVIDIA led the Magnificent Seven lower for a second straight session, sinking 5.53% and turning what looked like a one-day stumble into a real problem. Back-to-back heavy losses from the market's most important AI name are hard to brush off as simple noise. They suggest investors are steadily pulling money out of the chip giant rather than just taking a quick breather. Monday's warning sign now looks more like the start of a trend, and NVIDIA needs to show it can find a floor before this selling turns into a deeper breakdown that drags the rest of big tech down with it.
The rest of the group had a mostly red session, with Amazon standing out as the biggest bright spot after climbing 1.48%. Tesla and Meta also finished green, so three names managed to hold their ground while the other four slipped. That's a noticeable step back from the prior session, when six of the seven names rallied together. Tesla extending its recovery for a third day is encouraging, and it shows buyers are still willing to defend the stock. But when the group splits like this, it usually means investors are picking favorites instead of buying big tech across the board. With NVIDIA under this much pressure, the leadership that powered the recent rebound is starting to look shaky.
The broader market reflected that cautious mood, with modest losses across the board. Tech-heavy stocks took the biggest hit, while small caps and blue chips slipped too, so this was a light risk-off day rather than a panic. Bitcoin dropped 1.83% to close above $73,847, giving back its prior gain and showing that speculative assets cooled off along with tech. The VIX dropped 1.96% to 19.53, holding below that key 20 level and signaling that fear didn't spike even as stocks drifted lower. Wednesday brings no economic news, so the Magnificent Seven will trade on technicals and positioning alone. If NVIDIA can stabilize and names like Amazon keep pushing higher, the group could regain its footing. But if NVIDIA's slide continues, it could weigh on the whole tech complex and keep the heavyweights under pressure.
Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil slipped again, easing 0.55% to close at $86.37. That's a much milder pullback than the prior session's steep drop, which suggests sellers are losing some urgency after shaving off a chunk of the geopolitical risk premium. The black gold is holding below $90 for now, but crude has rallied well above $70 and continues to defy longer-term model expectations, a clear sign that supply disruption worries and geopolitical tensions are still very much in play. The modest decline came as the broader market leaned risk-off, so traders appear to be sitting on their hands rather than making big bets in either direction. With no economic news on Wednesday's calendar, oil will likely trade on headlines and supply chatter. A sustained move this far above $70 keeps inflationary pressure alive and could complicate Fed policy if energy costs keep feeding into the data.
Gold gave back most of its recent bounce, sliding 1.77% to close at $4,042. That wipes out the bulk of the prior day's rally and puts the yellow metal uncomfortably close to the key $4,000 level. The selling looks more like profit-taking after a sharp run than a real shift in sentiment, since the long-term drivers of inflation uncertainty, steady central bank buying, and lingering geopolitical tensions haven't changed. Still, the cushion above $4,000 is getting thin, and with a quiet calendar Wednesday, technical levels will do most of the talking. As long as gold holds above $4,000, bulls stay in control, but a break below that line could invite a deeper round of selling.
Bitcoin slid 1.83% to close above $73,847, giving back its small prior-day gain and then some. For a high-beta asset, sliding on a soft day for risk assets is no surprise, but it reinforces the idea that crypto buyers remain hesitant and quick to step aside. Staying well below the $80,000 psychological level keeps the recovery effort on shaky ground, and each failed bounce adds weight to the downtrend. With no major economic reports due Wednesday, Bitcoin will need to find its own spark. A push back above $80,000 would repair the damage, while continued weakness would keep the bears firmly in charge.
Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 2.45% today to close at 4.980, and that is the move bulls were hoping to avoid. Yesterday the bond market sat quietly while stocks rallied. Today it lurched higher on a day that was supposed to bring clarity, blowing right past the 4.95% danger point we flagged. When yields climb that fast, borrowing costs rise and the math behind stock valuations gets worse, so equities had little choice but to give back ground.
The threshold picture deteriorated sharply. The 4.5% level where equity valuations start to feel the squeeze now sits 48 basis points below today's close, and the 4.8% mark that usually triggers broader selling is 18 basis points underneath, which puts the 10-year deep in the selloff zone. The real story is the 5% serious-risk flag, where the cushion shrank from 14 basis points to just 2. The gap to 5.2%, where the framework calls for a 20% or greater correction, narrowed to 22 basis points. One more day like this and the market will be staring at a full-blown risk signal.
Stocks felt the pressure, though the damage was more of a bruise than a break. The Nasdaq fell 0.74%, the Russell 2000 slipped 0.64%, and the Dow dipped 0.3%. Growth names and small caps lagging makes sense because they are the most sensitive to higher rates. The VIX actually dropped 1.96% to 19.53, so traders aren't hitting the panic button yet, which is a little surprising given how close the 10-year is to 5%. Crude eased 0.55% to $86.37, but that small dip does little to offset the inflation worries pushing yields up. Gold sank 1.77% to $4,042, a sign that rising real yields are making non-yielding hedges less attractive.
Wednesday brings no economic news, so the bond market will have to sort this out without a fresh catalyst. That cuts both ways. A quiet session could let the 10-year cool off and slip back toward 4.9%, which would give stocks breathing room. The bigger risk is follow-through buying pressure in yields that pushes the 10-year through 5%. A close above that line would be the first serious-risk signal of this stretch, and with volatility still hovering near 20, the calm in equities could disappear quickly.
Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Heading into Tuesday, our AI model projected SPY's maximum range at $744 to $761, with the Call side dominating an expanding band. That setup pointed to trending price action with intermittent chop, and the bias was bullish. The calendar was front-loaded with FOMC Member Waller speaking at 4:00 AM ET, followed by CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m at 8:30 AM ET, so the forecast warned of significant volatility, especially in the first hour. The VIX had dropped 22.39% to 19.90 the day before, and the newsletter cautioned that fear that compressed could snap back fast on a hot inflation print.
The key battleground was the $750 to $754 zone, with CPI expected to decide which side gave way. On the upside, $754 was the first resistance bulls needed to clear, with $758 next, then $760 and $763 capping the move around the $761 top of the projected range. On the downside, losing $750 targeted $748, then $740 just under the $744 range bottom, with $734 as the lowest support and $730 in play if that failed. The long-term bull trend was viewed as intact above structural support near $640, keeping the broader picture a dip-buying environment.
The favored trade was shorting a failed rally into $754, targeting $750 and then $748, with stops above $758, while keeping risk tight given the bullish bias. On the long side, buying a hold of $750 after the CPI dust settled was the cleanest setup, targeting $754 and then $758, with stops below $748. A clean break and hold above $754 meant stepping aside on shorts and buying a retest of $754 toward $758 and $760. A decisive break below $748 flipped the playbook to shorting a failed retest toward $744 and $740. The newsletter recommended about two-thirds of normal size, letting the first 30 to 60 minutes play out, and not chasing the first move off the 8:30 AM data.
Market Performance vs. Forecast
Tuesday's session stayed entirely inside the model's projected maximum range of $744 to $761, a strong showing for the framework on a day loaded with inflation data and Fed commentary. SPY opened at $747.94, reached a high of $752.14, dipped to a low of $744.87 and closed at $750.01, down 0.36%, on volume of 34.08M, below average. With FOMC Member Waller speaking at 4:00 AM ET and CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m landing at 8:30 AM ET, the forecast warned of significant volatility and called for trending price action with intermittent chop. The session delivered the chop side of that call. The bullish bias did not carry through to the close, but the model's range boundaries contained every tick of the day.
The key levels did exactly what the forecast said they would. The model named the $750 to $754 zone as the key battleground, and SPY spent the session fighting over it before closing right on top of $750. The forecast identified $754 as the first resistance bulls needed to clear, and the session high stalled well short of it, confirming that level's role as the range ceiling. On the downside, the forecast stated that losing $750 "likely sends price toward $748," with the $744 bottom of the projected range below that. Price slipped through $748 and the session low held just above the $744 range floor, which is about as clean a confirmation of the model's lower boundary as you can get. The $740, $734 and $730 levels went untouched. The long-term bull trend above structural support near $640 remains firmly intact, and the dip-buying environment held as buyers stepped in near the bottom of the range and lifted price back to $750 by the close.
On the falling market side, the breakdown playbook came into play. The setup called for shorting a failed retest of $748 once it gave way, targeting the projected low at $744 and taking most profits there. Price broke $748 and pushed down to within a hair of that $744 target, rewarding traders who followed the layered approach. The favored short at $754 never triggered because price never reached that resistance, which kept traders out of a setup that didn't materialize. On the rising market side, the $750 dip-buy never formed cleanly since SPY opened beneath that level, and for any longs that did engage, risk management protocols protected capital through the predefined stops below $748. The breakout retest of $754 never came into play.
The VIX dropped 1.96% to 19.53, holding below the 20 mark and confirming that fear stayed contained even through the inflation release. The below-average volume points to a market digesting Monday's big rally rather than unwinding it. The guidance not to chase the first move off the 8:30 AM data proved valuable in a session defined by back-and-forth swings. The model mapped the ceiling, the floor and the battleground that shaped the entire day, and price respected all of them. The framework adapts as conditions shift, and Tuesday showed how well-defined ranges, layered targets and disciplined stops keep traders positioned through choppy, data-driven sessions while the market decides its next direction.
Premarket Analysis Summary
The premarket analysis, posted before the opening bell, set up Tuesday's session with SPY at $753.43 in a call-dominated tape, with the tone flipping positive. Price was gapping higher again after Monday's surge, the best session since April, which ran from $742 through $745 and $748 to close near $750. The bias hinged on $752, the defining level sitting just beneath spot where the tone flipped. Holding above it would keep buyers in control of the rebound, while losing it cleanly would put $750 back in play at once. The expected move ran from $743 to $761, about eight points, and the notes warned that participants were still bracing for large swings, though a call-dominated tape favored grinding through levels over running them. Upside targets started at $755 as the immediate gate, then $757 as the next decision point. Beyond that, $760 was the heaviest resistance overhead at the top of the expected move, and $765 was max upside. On the downside, $750 was the line in the sand, a major round number, yesterday's closing area, and the heaviest two-way battle on the board. Below it, $748 was the next decision point, $745 was the point of last hope, and $740 was max downside and Monday's launch point.
The premarket gap never survived the opening bell, and the upside map went untouched. SPY opened at $747.94, already below both the $752 pivot and the $750 line in the sand, and even under $748, so sellers had erased the gap before trading began. The notes called for a fast trip to $748 and then a real fight at $745 if $750 failed, and that is almost exactly what happened. SPY slid to a low of $744.87, just barely piercing the $745 point of last hope, but selling never picked up speed and $740 was never threatened. Buyers then staged a recovery all the way back to a high of $752.14, tagging the pivot almost to the penny, but they couldn't hold above it, and $755 never came into view. SPY closed at $750.01, down 0.36% on 34.08M shares of below-average volume, finishing right on the line in the sand. The VIX dropped 1.96% to 19.53, holding below 20 despite the red close. The key takeaway is that $752 acted as a ceiling instead of a floor, while $745 did its job as a last line of defense. Bulls salvaged $750 by a single cent, and reclaiming $752 will now be the test of whether Monday's rebound has more fuel.
Validation of the Analysis
Tuesday didn't deliver the gap higher the premarket notes opened with, but it followed the map's conditional script almost to the penny. The notes were written with spot at 753.43 and named 752 as "the defining level," warning that if buyers lost it, "750 is back in play at once." SPY opened at $747.94, $5.49 below spot and already under both 752 and 750. That made the bearish branch of the plan the one that mattered, and the notes spelled it out plainly: "lose 750 and expect a fast trip to 748, then a real fight at 745." The open landed just 6 cents under 748, the "next decision point," and sellers pressed straight toward 745, the "point of last hope." The session low printed at $744.87, only 13 cents below that level, and that's where the real fight happened. Sellers couldn't get any follow-through, and 740, the max downside, sat $4.87 beneath the low without ever coming into play.
Once 745 held, the rebound climbed back through 748 and 750 and ran straight into the 752 pivot. The high came in at $752.14, just 14 cents above the line the notes called the spot "where the tone flips." Buyers couldn't reclaim it, and price faded right back to 750, which the notes described as "the heaviest two-way battle on the board." SPY settled at $750.01, down 0.36% and a single cent above that line in the sand. The whole session played out between two of the map's most important levels, with 745 working as the floor and 752 as the ceiling. The full 7.27-point range also fit inside the 743 to 761 expected move, matching the notes' call that the tape would favor "grinding through levels over running them." The upside targets at 755, 757, 760, and 765 never came into the picture, with 755 sitting $2.86 above the high. The VIX dropped 1.96% to 19.53, consistent with a two-sided session that never turned into real panic.
The trading value came from knowing exactly where the fight would happen on both ends. The main setup was the long on the defense of 745. Buying the $744.87 low with tight risk paid 3.13 points into 748, 5.13 points into 750, and 7.13 points into the 752 pivot. The second opportunity came at 752 itself. With the map flagging it as the level that had to be reclaimed, the rejection at $752.14 set up a clean fade that paid 2.13 points into the close at 750. Just as important, the map kept traders out of the worst trade of the day. With 752 never reclaimed, there was no reason to chase calls toward 755 or 760. Heading into Wednesday, bulls need to recapture 752 to put 755 and 757 back on the table. Bears need a clean break under 750, followed by a retest of 745, to bring the 740 floor into view.
Looking Ahead
Wednesday brings a quiet economic calendar, with no high-impact releases on the schedule. That gives traders a rare breather to step back and position without a data bomb landing at 8:30 AM ET. With no fresh numbers to react to, the market will be left to digest the latest inflation picture on its own terms, and price action should reflect how investors are really feeling about the economy and the Fed's next move. Quiet days like this often show whether recent moves have real conviction behind them or were just knee-jerk reactions that fade once the dust settles.
Without a scheduled catalyst, expect trading to be driven by sector rotation, individual stock news, and any unscheduled Fed commentary that hits the wires. Volume could run lighter than usual, which can make moves look bigger than they actually are, so don't read too much into a single sharp swing. Use the session to review your positions, trim anything that isn't working, and set up entries for when the calendar heats up again. If the market drifts in one direction all day on light activity, be cautious about piling in late. A calm session is a good time to plan, not to force trades, so stay patient and keep your stops in place until a clearer trend shows up.
Market Sentiment and Key Levels
Tuesday tilted toward the bears, but they couldn't finish the job. Sellers pressed early and dragged SPY below $750 intraday. Buyers stepped in off the lows and pulled price back above that line by the close, which kept the damage contained. Conviction was thin on both sides, with below-average volume telling you this was more drift than stampede. Breadth leaned negative across the board. The Nasdaq fell 0.74%, the Russell 2000 slipped 0.64%, and the Dow dipped 0.3%. Tech leading the decline tells you the pressure was concentrated in growth names. Mega-cap leadership was mostly red, with one heavyweight taking an outsized hit while a few names held green. Risk appetite cooled elsewhere too. Bitcoin dropped 1.83% and gold slid 1.77%, so traders weren't rushing into either speculative or defensive assets. The VIX fell 1.96% to 19.53, which is a modest easing in fear and fits with the late recovery off the lows. Rising yields remain a background headwind, but for now bears have a slight edge without real control.
SPY is now sitting right on first support at $750, and with no economic news on Wednesday's calendar, technicals and positioning will drive the tape. A push through $755 opens the door to $757, followed by $760 and $765. On the downside, losing $750 likely sends price toward $747, then $744 and $740. If that lowest support fails, there's little to keep SPY from sliding toward $735. Zoom out and the long-term bull trend remains intact, with SPY sitting well above structural support at $640. As long as those key structural levels hold, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Wednesday's projected maximum range runs from $746 to $759, with the Put side dominating in an expanding band that points to trending price action mixed with intermittent chop. That Put-side tilt warns that sellers could take another swing at support, so don't be surprised by an early test lower. Watch whether mega-cap tech can stabilize, because sustained weakness across both the leadership names and crypto would be needed to signal a deeper pullback. A quiet bounce in those groups would likely put $755 back in play. With SPY closing near the lower end of the projected range, we favor buying dips near $747. Keep size measured given the bearish options skew, and treat a decisive close below $744 as the signal to step aside on the long side.
Expected Price Action
Wednesday's session brings actionable intelligence generated by our AI model, which projects SPY's maximum range at $746 to $759. With the Put side dominating in an expanding band, the model is calling for trending price action with intermittent chop. The economic calendar is empty on Wednesday, so there is no fresh macro headline to jolt the tape, and the market will trade on technicals and positioning. SPY finished in the lower half of Wednesday's projected range, and that, paired with a Put-heavy tilt to the band, shifts our bias bearish heading into Wednesday. The VIX dropped 1.96% to 19.53, a modest easing in fear that shows buyers were willing to step in off the lows, but not a strong enough move to flip the near-term tone back in favor of the bulls.
The key battleground for Wednesday is the $750 to $755 zone, with SPY sitting right on top of the model's first support. $750 is the line in the sand. It is a major round number and the level bulls must defend to keep the rebound alive. If it gives way, look for a slide toward $747, just above the $746 bottom of the model's range, with $744 and $740 below that. The lowest support sits at $740, and if that breaks there is little to keep price from falling toward $735. On the upside, $755 is the first resistance bulls need to clear, and a push through it opens the door toward $757. Above that, $760 and $765 cap the upside, with the $759 top of the model's range sitting just below the $760 round number. The bigger picture remains intact, with SPY well above structural support near $640 and the long-term bull trend still firmly in place. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment.
In the short run, the playbook favors buying dips near $747, since that level sits just above the bottom of the projected range and offers a defined spot to lean against. Keep risk tight given the bearish bias and Put-side dominance, because a clean break below $744 would signal that sellers have taken control and $740 comes into play quickly. If $750 holds early and price grinds back toward $755, don't chase the move higher. A rejection at $755 is a better spot to trim longs or consider a short with $750 as the target. If $755 breaks and holds, step aside on the short side, because Wednesday could turn into a trend day toward $757 and $760. Chop is part of the forecast, so expect some back-and-forth before the real direction shows itself, and don't overreact to the first swing off the open. With no data on the calendar and fear only modestly cooling, Wednesday sets up as a pure test of whether buyers can defend $750 or whether the Put-side pressure drags SPY toward the bottom of the range.
Trading Strategy
The VIX dropped 1.96% to 19.53, a modest easing in fear that keeps it just under the 20 mark without signaling any real all-clear. That reading tells you traders aren't panicking, but they aren't relaxed either. Wednesday has no economic news on the calendar, so there's no scheduled catalyst to jolt the tape. Technicals and positioning will do the driving, which means levels matter more than usual. The Put side dominates an expanding band, and the model calls for trending action with intermittent chop. Expect a directional lean to the downside with plenty of head fakes along the way. Run about three-quarters of normal size, since a VIX hovering this close to 20 can pop quickly if sellers regain control.
In a rising market scenario, buying a dip into $747 is our favored trade overall. SPY finished near the lower end of the projected range after buyers defended the session lows, and that gives bulls a clean line in the sand. The trigger is price pulling back to $747, holding, and firming up, ideally with the VIX staying below 19.53. The first profit target is $750, with $755 next if buyers keep pressing. Stops on longs belong below $744. If bulls clear $755 and hold it, don't chase the breakout. Buy a clean retest of $755 as support instead, targeting $757 and then $759. Stops on that breakout trade belong below $750. Since the projected high sits at $759, take most profits there and let only a small runner ride toward $760. Above that, $765 is the next resistance, but don't count on getting there without a catalyst.
In a falling market scenario, shorting a failed rally into $755 is the cleanest short on the board. The Put-dominant band gives sellers a structural tailwind, and first resistance is where they're most likely to show up. A pop into $755 that stalls and rolls over is the trigger, especially if the VIX pushes back above 20 while price struggles under resistance. The first profit target is $750, with $747 next. Stops on shorts belong above $757. If $744 gives way with conviction, flip the playbook and short a failed retest of $744 from underneath, targeting $740. Stops on that breakdown trade belong back above $747. A break of $744 puts SPY below the projected low of $746, so take most profits at $740 and keep only a small runner. If $740 cracks, there is little to keep price from falling toward $735. By that point the move is stretched, so shorts should be booking gains, not adding.
The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640, and the bigger picture is still a dip-buying environment. The Put-dominant band gives bears the short-term edge, but price sitting near the bottom of the projected range tilts the risk-reward toward buying weakness rather than chasing it lower. With no economic news to shake things up, let the levels do the talking and wait for price to confirm before acting. Keep size moderate, scale out in layers, respect your stops, and don't get caught flat-footed if the VIX reclaims 20. Buy holds at $747 and short rallies at $755 until one side breaks the range.
Model’s Projected Range
SPY's projected maximum range for Wednesday is $746 to $759, with the Put side dominating in an expanding band that suggests trending price action with intermittent chop. Wednesday brings no economic news due out so the market will trade on technicals. SPY closed at $750.01, down 0.36%, after opening at $747.94, pushing up to a high of $752.14 and dipping to a low of $744.87 before buyers stepped in to lift price back above $750 into the close. SPY is trading near our model's first support at $750, and with no fresh macro headline driving the tape, price action and positioning are steering the ship. If SPY can clear first resistance at $755, the door opens toward $757, but if first support at $750 gives way, look for a slide toward $747, and if the lowest support at $740 breaks, there is little to keep price from falling toward $735. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 with SPY well above structural support. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $755, $757, $760, $765, while support rests at $750, $747, $744, $740. With SPY closing near the lower end of the projected range, we favor buying dips near $747. Bitcoin slipped 1.83% but closed above $73,847, while the MAG stocks had a mostly red day led lower by NVIDIA, down 5.53%, with Amazon the standout exception, up 1.48%. Sustained weakness across both leadership groups would be required to signal a deeper pullback. The VIX closed at 19.53, down 1.96%, suggesting a modest easing in fear as SPY recovered off the session lows. SPY remains within its broader trend channel with structural support near $640.
Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast
Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended Tuesday in a Bullish Trending Market State with SPY closing at $750.01. With SPY finishing just below the lower MSI line, MSI support at $750.34 now flips to resistance for Wednesday, and $752.11 sits just above it as the upper level. Tuesday was a wild ride. The MSI rescaled sharply lower overnight as CPI hit, but it held a Bullish Trending state in the premarket with extended targets printing above. At the open the MSI rescaled higher and extended targets kept printing above through the AM session as SPY pushed toward $752. That push failed right at MSI resistance. Late in the morning the MSI flipped to Bearish Trending and went through rapid rescaling lower, with extended targets printing below in the early PM session. Rapid rescaling like that signals a strong trend, and it carried SPY down to the $745 area. Once extended targets below stopped printing, price reversed hard. The MSI moved into a Ranging state, then rescaled several times higher through the afternoon as SPY reclaimed $750, and extended targets printed above into the close. The MSI range is a moderate $1.77.
For Wednesday, the MSI is forecasting a strong continuation higher with the bulls maintaining control and extended targets above suggesting upside momentum will persist. The afternoon reversal off $745 was the real story of the day, and extended targets printing above at the close show the buyers still had their foot on the gas into the bell. SPY sits just below the MSI, so expect a rescale before the open and follow its cues. MSI support is $750.34 with resistance at $752.11.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
Monday we stated, "Bulls want to see overnight price hold the low $750s through the CPI release and push back toward Monday's $755.42 high," and added, "To keep the grind going, they need the MSI to rescale higher before the open with extended targets printing above again," while also noting, "A hot CPI that sends price back toward $742.21 isn't a problem for the bulls as long as $741.26 holds." The bulls didn't get the clean overnight hold they wanted. CPI knocked price out of the low $750s, and the MSI rescaled sharply lower overnight. Still, the MSI held Bullish Trending in the premarket with extended targets printing above, and SPY opened at $747.94. Buyers stepped in right away. The MSI rescaled higher at the open and extended targets printed above through the AM session as SPY climbed to a high of $752.14. That's where the rally ran out of steam, failing right at MSI resistance near $752.
From there the day flipped. Late in the morning the MSI turned Bearish Trending and went through rapid rescaling lower, with extended targets printing below in the early PM session. SPY slid all the way to a low of $744.87, and that's where the selling dried up. Extended targets below stopped printing near $745 and price snapped back sharply. The MSI shifted to Ranging, then rescaled higher through the afternoon as SPY reclaimed $750 and settled at $750.01, with extended targets printing above into the close. Monday's warning about CPI turned out to be right on. The flush never got close to $742.21, and $741.26 was never in danger.
The framework offered two clean setups. The first was the opening long. With the MSI Bullish Trending and extended targets printing above, buying the dip near MSI support around the $748 open and riding it toward MSI resistance near $752 worked well. The second came when that rally failed at $752. Once the MSI flipped to Bearish Trending, the play was selling rallies into MSI resistance as it rescaled lower, targeting the premarket levels below while extended targets printed below. That trade rode the slide toward $745 and captured most of a $7 move. At minimum it was a 2-for-2 session for traders following the framework.
SPY fell 0.36% on volume of 34.08 million shares, below average, and the VIX dropped 1.96% to 19.53. That's a calm reaction to a CPI day, and the VIX staying under 20 says fear didn't stick around after the morning selloff. It was a volatile but readable day with substantial setups, all identified through proper context, patience, and flexibility while leveraging the MSI, premarket levels, and market structure rather than forcing trades. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Wednesday has light economic news but the moderate bullish MSI with extended targets above suggests continuation higher is the most likely outcome. The MSI closed in a Bullish Trending state with a moderate $1.77 range and extended targets printing above into the close. That points to a strong continuation higher with the bulls maintaining control and upside momentum likely to persist. $750.34 is MSI support-turned-resistance and $752.11 sits just above it. Above, $755, Monday's $755.42 high, and $758 are the levels to watch. Below, $750, $747, and Tuesday's $744.87 low mark the downside.
Bulls want to see overnight price hold $750 and quickly reclaim $750.34, then push through $752.11 toward $755 and Monday's $755.42 high. To keep the momentum going, they need the MSI to rescale higher before the open with extended targets printing above again. A dip toward $750 isn't a problem for the bulls as long as it holds and gets bought. Bears want to see $750 fail with the MSI rescaling lower and extended targets printing below. That would press SPY back toward $747 and $745 and put Tuesday's $744.87 low back in play. Given how hard buyers defended $745 on Tuesday, that would take a real shift, and the MSI isn't calling for it.
The bias favors longs until the MSI shifts. With SPY sitting just below the MSI, expect the MSI to rescale before the open and anchor to the new levels it sets. If SPY reclaims $750.34 and the MSI holds Bullish Trending, buy dips to that level and target $752.11, then $755 and $755.42. A clean break above $752.11 with extended targets printing above opens the door to $758. A failed breakout above $752.11 without extended targets printing above offers a short back toward $750.34. If price dips below $750 early, a quick flush that holds and reclaims $750 offers a higher-quality long back toward $752.11. A clean break of $750 with extended targets printing below flips the play to selling rallies into $750.34 while targeting $747 and $745. Let the MSI confirm before pressing in either direction.
The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 and failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups. Remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States unless a clear failed breakout or breakdown presents itself, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven't yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.
Dealer Positioning Analysis
Dealers are selling SPY $756 to $790 and higher strike Calls while buying $750 to $755 Calls, indicating the Dealers' desire to participate in any rally on Wednesday. They appear to be buying ATM Calls and selling Puts, which suggests a willingness to take part in a continued recovery while still keeping downside protection in place. The ceiling for Wednesday appears to be $760. Dealers are also selling $752 to $740 Puts, and Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $740, so that Put selling hints at some confidence that SPY will hold above that level. To the downside, Dealers are buying $745 to $690 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying some lingering concern that prices could move lower. SPY bounced strongly off $745 on Tuesday and reclaimed $750, which puts the bulls back in a better spot. There is potential resistance at $755 followed by $760, while $750 and $745 provide important support. If gamma stays positive, Dealers are more likely to defend these levels and mean revert price rather than press the trend. A sustained break above $755 could trigger more buying toward $760, while losing $745 would hand control back to the bears. Above $753 is bullish and below $747 is bearish, with chop and traps in between. Dealer positioning is unchanged at neutral/slightly bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $753 to $795 and higher strike Calls, indicating the Dealers' belief that the market is in balance in the short term at these levels, since they are not showing any meaningful additional ATM Call buying or Put selling. That tells us they remain cautious about a sustained rally into Friday. The ceiling for the week appears to be $776. To the downside, Dealers are buying $752 to $685 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, so they remain heavily hedged against further downside. The strongest positioning is centered around $730 to $745, while the Call wall at $750 and Put wall at $745 remain key reference levels. SPY's recovery above $750 improves the bullish outlook, but the market still needs to reclaim $755 and $760 to build a stronger move higher. Above $760, resistance at $765 could slow any advance, with $776 standing as the broader upside ceiling. Below $745, the bears could push prices toward $740 and $735, with $730 becoming an important lower level to watch. If gamma remains positive, Dealers are more likely to defend major levels and favor mean reversion, but a flip to negative gamma could speed up any selling. Above $755 is bullish and below $745 is bearish, with chop and traps in between. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged at bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.
Recommendation for Traders
Buy dips near $747, targeting $755 and $757, with stops below $744.
With no economic data on tap, keep size disciplined and review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET for any changes in the model's outlook and Dealer Positioning.
Good luck and good trading!
