Market Insights: Monday, November 10th, 2025

Market Overview

Stocks surged to start the week, as signs of progress in the U.S. Senate toward ending the historic government shutdown lifted investor sentiment and sent equities sharply higher. The S&P 500 jumped 1.56% to close at $681.43, its strongest single-day gain since August. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led with a 2.27% advance, while the Dow added 0.81%, rising over 350 points to a fresh multi-week high. Markets were buoyed by optimism that a bipartisan procedural vote in the Senate could lead to a resolution, with a bill advancing late Sunday that would reopen the government through January 30.

The 39-day shutdown has weighed heavily on sentiment and macro visibility, with consumer confidence plunging and key economic reports, including CPI and PPI, delayed due to furloughed federal agencies. While the shutdown's formal end still hinges on House approval, the Senate breakthrough sparked a wave of relief buying that lifted risk assets broadly. Gold jumped 2.7% to $4,119, while Bitcoin rose over 1% to trade above $105,700, reflecting growing appetite for speculative assets amid easing political uncertainty.

Tech stocks were at the forefront of Monday’s rally, reversing the prior week’s steep selloff. Nvidia led the charge with a gain of 6.23%, while Tesla and Alphabet each climbed over 3%, as investors snapped up AI-related names that had recently been under pressure. Monday’s strength came despite ongoing concerns about overstretched valuations, especially within the AI trade. Airline stocks, by contrast, lagged as Delta, United, and American Airlines all traded lower, weighed down by persistent industry disruptions and caution around air travel demand.

As the market prepares for CPI and jobless claims Thursday, followed by PPI and retail sales on Friday, traders are bracing for volatility. But for now, the tone has shifted meaningfully back to risk-on. After weeks of uncertainty, the bulls are once again pressing their advantage, though the path forward still depends heavily on policy headlines and macro clarity.

SPY Performance

SPY opened at $677.23 and quickly rallied to a high of $682.17 before settling at $681.43, up 1.56% on the day. Volume reached 67.94 million shares, above the daily average, confirming the strength of the move. The session saw clean technical progression as SPY reclaimed and held the $680 level, with support now building at $676 and $677. Immediate resistance lies at $682, $683, and $685.

Major Indices Performance

The Nasdaq rose 2.27% on Monday, outperforming all major indices. The S&P 500 advanced 1.56%, and the Dow added 0.81%. The Russell 2000 rose 0.97% as small caps participated in the broad rally. Leadership was concentrated in technology, and breadth improved meaningfully compared to last week’s deterioration.

Notable Stock Movements

All of the Magnificent Seven finished in the green, with Nvidia leading the group, up 6.23% following last week’s pullback. Tesla and Alphabet each gained over 3%, while Amazon, Meta, Apple, and Microsoft also posted solid gains. The coordinated move across these names helped reinforce the day’s breakout and supported broader risk sentiment.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil gained 0.69% to close at $60.16, continuing its gradual recovery. Gold futures rose 2.7% to settle at $4,119, supported by political tailwinds and renewed demand for inflation hedges. Bitcoin advanced 1.15% to close above $105,700, rebounding from last week’s lows and reinforcing the day’s risk-on mood.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.114%, a 0.51% increase on the day. The yield remains below the 4.5% warning level for equities, keeping financial conditions supportive. However, should rates climb back toward 4.8% or above, risk assets would likely face increased pressure.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Monday’s price action validated the model’s bullish expectations. The premarket note anticipated that SPY could rally toward $680 if price reclaimed the bias level at $678. SPY opened above that threshold and never looked back, pushing decisively through resistance and settling above $681. The price structure unfolded in textbook fashion, favoring patient long entries over reactive shorts.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

The projected range for Monday was $666 to $678. SPY exceeded the upper end, closing at $681.43 as positive headlines sparked a strong move. While price overshot the forecast range, the directional call was spot on. This type of range expansion is common during headline-driven sessions and further highlights the importance of reacting to price behavior in real time.

Premarket Analysis Summary

Premarket commentary suggested a rally could unfold if SPY reclaimed $678, noting a heavy ceiling above but enough room for cautious long entries. That view proved correct, with SPY powering through resistance early and never looking back. The call to avoid chasing shorts proved prescient as price steadily climbed throughout the day.

Validation of the Analysis

The roadmap provided a solid framework, anticipating that reclaiming the bias level would lead to follow-through. The MSI confirmed a Bullish Trending Market State early in the session, giving traders confidence to press long setups. Resistance targets above were respected, and the clean hold of $677 into the close supports further upside bias.

Looking Ahead

SPY’s projected range for Tuesday is $677 to $685. With no economic data scheduled until Thursday, the government shutdown and related headlines will remain the key driver. Bulls will aim to extend the rally toward $685 and possibly $690. Support sits at $680, $677, $676, and $671. A confirmed break below $676 could shift momentum back to neutral, while sustained action above $682 sets the stage for a test of new highs.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY closed at $681.43, well above structural support and back within the center of its upward channel. The VIX dropped 7.76% to 17.60, reflecting reduced hedging demand and renewed confidence. Sentiment has turned bullish once more, and the market appears poised for a continuation move barring a negative surprise from Washington or unexpected macro data.

Expected Price Action

Expect continued upside as long as SPY holds above $676. Bulls are now eyeing $685 as the next key level, with $690 possible on a breakout. If the shutdown resolution advances, headlines may trigger further upside extensions. If price falters near $682, consolidation back toward $677 is likely. Traders should be prepared for headline whipsaws but respect the prevailing trend.

Trading Strategy

Buy pullbacks to support at $677 or breakouts above $682 with volume confirmation. Avoid chasing weakness unless SPY breaks below $676 with momentum. Use the MSI and roadmap for intraday structure. Resistance targets include $683, $685, and $690. Support holds at $676, $671, and $668.

Model’s Projected Range

SPY’s projected maximum range for Tuesday sits between $676 and $687, with the Call side dominating in a narrow band that signals choppy price action punctuated by trending periods. There’s no economic data due Tuesday or Wednesday, leaving the ongoing government shutdown as the primary driver of market sentiment and price direction. Traders should continue to expect headline-driven volatility. Today the market surged 1.56%, a powerful reminder of the strength of the prevailing bull trend and how quickly sentiment can turn when even modestly positive news emerges from Washington. Gains of this magnitude occur only about 5–6% of the time, roughly once every two months, underscoring how notable the move was. After breaking major support levels last week, SPY has sharply recovered to close at $681.44, back above the critical level where the bulls firmly dominate the price action. Volume came in near average, offering no confirmation but also no contradiction of the day’s strength. As we noted last week, buyers “are not done supporting this market,” and once again, that proved accurate. While the bears had briefly gained traction, their momentum was short-lived, consistent with nearly every pullback this year. As long as SPY remains above $640, the broader bull trend remains intact, and the bears have substantial ground to make up before regaining control. Overnight, bulls will look to defend $676 to sustain the rally toward $685, where a pause or brief dip may occur before the next leg higher. Should $676 fail, SPY could retrace to $671, but as long as these levels hold, price is likely to continue climbing toward $685, consolidating before a possible push to $690 and new highs. Absent a major catalyst, resistance for Tuesday sits at $682, $683, $685, and $690, with support at $680, $677, $676, and $671. A decisive move above $685 could accelerate momentum higher, while a confirmed break below $671 could expose $668 before stronger support steps in. Crypto rallied sharply over the weekend and into Monday, and all major Mag stocks posted gains, reinforcing the risk-on tone. As we’ve emphasized for weeks, sustained softness across key leadership names or crypto could still trigger the 10–15% correction we’ve been tracking, but today’s action pushed that possibility further into the distance. As long as these leadership areas remain strong, the market will likely continue higher. The VIX fell 7.76% to 17.60, signaling renewed confidence and positioning for what could evolve into a Santa rally. SPY closed well above the lower boundary of its bull channel from the April lows, and given last week’s brief break of that structure, the bull channel will likely be redrawn to better fit the evolving trend, moderating its trajectory while keeping the long-term bullish structure intact, though increasingly tested. 

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended the session in a Bullish Trending Market State, with SPY closing just below MSI resistance. Extended targets printed overnight and for much of the day with only a brief respite midday. There were no extended targets printing into the close. Overnight the MSI rescaled higher as SPY gapped up. The MSI held its narrow bullish state until just before 2 pm when volume came in and the MSI rescaled higher three times with extended targets above. For Tuesday the MSI is implying higher prices are likely but perhaps not much higher than $685. MSI support is $678.26 with resistance at $682.08.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Friday we wrote, “Sunday could produce a gap-and-go scenario, potentially pushing SPY back above $680,” and noted, “Monday may see the bulls attempt to build on Friday’s strong reversal, targeting $675 as the first step in reclaiming momentum from the bears,” while also adding, “Should SPY reclaim $680, the bulls will look to push toward $685 and $690.” With this context, and with the MSI opening in a bullish state after a strong overnight gap higher and extended targets printing above, our only focus was to find a clean long setup off support. A well-formed double bottom before noon at $675 provided the exact opportunity we were looking for right in line with our plan to reclaim $680 as the next objective. We entered long and set T1 at the premarket level of $678, which was achieved smoothly. With momentum clearly favoring the bulls, we set T2 at another premarket level at $680, aligning perfectly with our projected target zone. Both targets were hit before 2 pm, leaving us in a strong position heading into the afternoon. From there, we simply moved our stop to breakeven and let the trade develop. Around 3 pm, extended targets stopped printing, signaling exhaustion in the move, so we locked in profits just below $682, wrapping up the session with a one-and-done trade to start the week. It was a textbook execution of our plan, driven by patience, discipline, and flawless alignment between MSI signals, market structure, and our broader trading framework. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
After a massive day like today, while some follow-through on Tuesday is likely, the market will probably take a breather and trade more sideways-to-up rather than continuing straight higher as it did today. Significant resistance sits near $685, a level that could cap price temporarily and even present a dip opportunity for bulls who missed Monday’s rally to get involved. Of course, the House could derail everything if it fails to approve the Senate bill, but absent a major setback in resolving the shutdown, Tuesday’s session is expected to see SPY push toward $685, possibly with an overnight dip to as low as $676 before recovering. Our bias remains to favor longs over shorts, and we’ll be cautious fading the highs, looking only for confirmed failed breakouts above $682 before considering any short entries. The bulls are clearly back in control and appear to be aiming for new all-time highs; it’s now a question of when, not if. Market direction remains heavily influenced by White House headlines and other macro developments, so flexibility and disciplined execution are essential. We anticipate a continued push toward $685 and possibly $690 in the coming days. With minimal economic data ahead, traders must stay nimble and trade what they see. On the downside, if $676 fails to hold, SPY could revisit lower levels, though we view that as a low-probability outcome barring unexpected negative news. With the VIX hovering near 17, still somewhat in no man’s land, risk is back on, albeit cautiously. A sustained move below 16 would likely accelerate upside momentum. The structural threshold for the broader bull market remains $640, and only a decisive break below that level would signal a true shift of control to the bears. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups, so remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $682 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also selling $670 to $681 Puts indicating the Dealers belief that price have nowhere to go Tuesday but up. Dealers only sell ATM Puts when they believe prices will move higher. The ceiling for Tuesday appears to be $685. To the downside, Dealers are buying $669 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls/Puts they’re selling/buying displaying little concern that prices could move lower tomorrow. Dealer positioning has changed from slightly bearish/neutral to neutral/slightly bullish.
Looking Ahead to Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $683 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also selling $680 to $682 Puts indicating the Dealers belief that price will rise into the end of the week. Dealers only sell ATM Puts when they believe prices will move higher. The ceiling for the week appears to be $690. To the downside, Dealers are buying $679 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls/Puts they’re selling/buying, reflecting a market that continues to be hedged but one which the Dealers believe, at least for next week, has found its bottom. For the week Dealer positioning has changed from bearish to slightly bearish/neutral. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

Trade the roadmap. Buy dips toward $677 and breakouts above $682. Sell failed rallies into $685 or $690. Avoid overtrading inside narrow chop and use MSI confirmation for directional setups. With sentiment improving and the shutdown possibly nearing resolution, bulls are pressing their advantage—but remain nimble in case the narrative shifts.

Good luck and good trading!