Market Insights: Thursday, October 30th, 2025

Market Overview

Stocks sold off Thursday as investors digested mixed earnings from Big Tech, a muted response to the US-China trade truce, and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s reminder that a December rate cut is “far from a foregone conclusion.” The Nasdaq led to the downside, falling 1.58%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.07%. The Dow declined a more modest 0.23%. Meta plunged over 11% after earnings revealed continued heavy AI investment that spooked analysts, while Nvidia dropped more than 2% as its China exposure remained in focus following the Trump-Xi summit. The pair of leaders agreed to a one-year trade truce that included China pausing rare earth curbs in exchange for the U.S. rolling back fentanyl-related tariffs, but the semiconductor issue was notably absent from the deal.

Alphabet bucked the tech trend, jumping 2.5% after beating earnings expectations, while Microsoft dipped over 3% despite solid results. Apple and Amazon, both set to report after the close, will now take center stage as investors look for validation of Big Tech’s elevated valuations. The Magnificent Seven saw their weakest session in weeks, reflecting growing scrutiny on growth expectations and capital allocation. Despite Thursday’s pullback, broader market structure remains intact, though sentiment has shifted more cautious ahead of Friday’s PCE report — now delayed due to the government shutdown.

The Fed’s recent rate cut was widely expected, but Powell’s hawkish tone introduced new uncertainty around the path ahead. Treasury yields rose, and the market repriced the odds of another cut this year. With the shutdown stalling economic data releases, corporate earnings and geopolitical headlines continue to drive price action. While bulls remain in control of the broader trend, Thursday’s decline reminded traders that volatility can return quickly when catalysts align.

SPY Performance

SPY opened at $683.64, climbed early to $685.94, and then steadily declined throughout the day, hitting a session low of $679.87 before closing at $680.01, down 1.07%. Volume was average at 67.48 million shares. The close marked SPY’s first real test of the $680 support level in weeks. After-hours action saw a bounce off that zone, signaling that buyers continue to defend dips — particularly as Apple and Amazon earnings loom.

Major Indices Performance

The Nasdaq led losses, falling 1.58% as tech came under broad pressure. The S&P 500 dropped 1.07%, and the Dow slipped 0.23%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.81%, continuing to lag as small caps remain under distribution. The day’s weakness was concentrated in the Magnificent Seven, with Meta’s steep drop leading sentiment lower and offsetting strength from Alphabet.

Notable Stock Movements

Meta plunged more than 11% after reporting earnings that emphasized continued high AI investment, sparking concern about capital discipline. Nvidia dropped over 2% amid disappointment that the US-China trade deal failed to address chip exports. Alphabet rallied 2.52% after beating revenue and profit estimates, while Apple rose 0.57% ahead of earnings. Microsoft declined 3.19% despite posting a strong quarter, suggesting elevated expectations may have been priced in.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil dipped 0.33% to $60.28, continuing its sideways churn around the $60 magnet. Our model still leans bearish unless crude can reclaim momentum above $64, but holding above $56 keeps a rally toward $70 in play. Gold rose 0.83% to $4,033 as investors rotated into safety. Bitcoin fell sharply by 3.95% to close just above $111,400, retreating after a multi-week rally and echoing broader risk-off tone.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.94% to close at 4.097%, moving further above the key 4% level. While not yet threatening, a push toward 4.5% would begin to pressure equities. Levels above 4.8% would cause more serious outflows, and a sustained rise beyond 5.2% still implies the potential for a 20%+ correction. Traders are now closely watching bond market reactions to shifting Fed rhetoric.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Wednesday’s roadmap projected a range of $676 to $695.25, with upside targets capped at $690 and support zones near $680. SPY opened at $683.64, briefly touched $685.94, and then sold off to $679.87 before closing at $680.01, a clean tag of the lower range. As expected, Powell’s comments and earnings volatility pushed price through support, but price bounced after hours as buyers stepped in near the model’s lower bound.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

SPY traded almost exactly as anticipated testing resistance early, rejecting it, and cascading toward key support. Our model warned of limited upside beyond $690 and favored downside movement should $683 fail, which played out precisely. Volume stayed average, confirming a technical rather than panic-driven decline. Once again, the roadmap delivered both structure and actionable clarity.

Premarket Analysis Summary

Thursday’s premarket warned of weakening sentiment and expected downside toward $684.15 and possibly $680. The roadmap offered $688 as the upside target and $690.15 as the ceiling. SPY failed to hold the bias level at $686.65 and immediately fell toward our lower targets. Traders who faded strength or used model resistance for short setups found alignment throughout the session.

Validation of the Analysis

Price respected the roadmap with textbook behavior. After failing to build momentum above $686, SPY rejected resistance and moved directly into the heart of the expected consolidation zone. With extended targets forming below support, downside acceleration was measured but directional. The model again proved its consistency in volatile macro-driven environments.

Looking Ahead

SPY’s projected range for Friday sits between $680 and $688. Resistance levels are $685, $688, $690, and $696. Support zones are found at $680, $677, $675, and $674. Bulls must hold $680 overnight or risk deeper losses. Bears need a clean break below $677 to extend control. Earnings from Apple and Amazon and any fresh trade headlines will be the primary market drivers.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY closed at $680.01, just above the critical $680 support level and still well above the bull/bear dividing line at $670. The VIX was unchanged at 16.92, signaling no significant stress. While momentum has slowed, bulls remain in control. Until $677 breaks, the path of least resistance remains higher.

Expected Price Action

If Apple or Amazon impress, SPY could reclaim $685 and make a push to $688. Failing that, we expect range-bound action between $680 and $685, with spikes driven by earnings or geopolitical headlines. A break below $680 opens the door to $677 or $675. But without a major catalyst, price is more likely to chop with an upward lean.

Trading Strategy

Stay long above $680 and consider fading strength at $688 or $690 unless earnings results justify breakout continuation. A loss of $680 favors quick short setups toward $677. Trade the roadmap. Let price prove direction. Avoid getting chopped in a narrow premarket range and wait for alignment with MSI or resistance rejections.

Model’s Projected Range

SPY’s projected maximum range for Friday sits between $674.25 and $689.50, with the Call side dominating in a narrowing band that suggests choppy price action punctuated by short bursts of trending movement. GDP wasn’t released today, and Friday’s PCE report is also delayed due to the government shutdown, leaving the market to react primarily to Apple and Amazon’s earnings results tonight along with any tariff or trade-related headlines. Today’s 1.1% decline to $679.83 came after Powell’s reminder that a December rate cut isn’t guaranteed, partially filling the most recent gap, but after-hours buying has already lifted prices off major support at $680 on the back of strong earnings. Given this setup, Friday will likely feature attempts to recover today’s losses and perhaps resume the broader bull trend. Since April, selloffs have typically lasted just one or two days before buyers returned, and as long as SPY holds above $670, the bullish structure remains firmly intact. Volume today was average, showing no indication of meaningful distribution or panic selling. Momentum still favors the bulls, with the first real downside test only if $680 fails; below that, $677 becomes the next key level where buyers should defend. Overnight, bulls want to maintain price above today’s lows and reclaim $685, which could open the door to a move toward $688. A break above $690 would trigger new all-time highs, while a failure there combined with a drop below $680 would likely invite further selling. Absent a major catalyst, resistance for Friday sits at $685, $688, $690, and $696, with support at $680, $677, $675, and $674. Crypto and most Mag stocks fell sharply today, but as we’ve repeated for weeks, one red day does not constitute sustained weakness. Persistent softness in these key areas could still trigger the 10–15% correction we’ve projected, though with each passing week that window moves further into early 2026. For now, the bulls remain firmly in control despite today’s dip, and the market’s structure continues to support higher prices. The VIX was unchanged at 16.92, signaling mild concern but staying far below the 23 stress threshold. SPY closed mid-channel within its April bull trend, a pattern that remains supportive of further upside momentum. 

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended the session in a Bearish Trending Market State, with SPY closing at MSI support. Extended targets printed for much of the day and into the close. Overnight, SPY did nothing as the MSI contained price in a narrow ranging state. But by the open the MSI had rescaled lower to a bearish state several times with extended targets which forecast the day’s price action. This bearish MSI remained virtually all day until a late breakdown at 2 pm way the MSI again begin a series of rapid rescalings lower with pushed SPY to the day’s lows at $680. For Friday, the MSI is forecasting lower prices however with Apple and Amazon due to report after the bell, its likely the market attempts to bounce and recover some of the day’s losses. MSI support is $680.16 with resistance at $682.25.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Wednesday we wrote, “Thursday could move sharply in either direction,” and noted, “$683 is key support where dip buyers are expected to defend; if it fails, the bears will target $680,” while also stating, “External catalysts will likely dictate the day’s flow, so use the MSI as your guide to stay aligned with real-time market state shifts.” With this context, and with the MSI opening in a narrow bearish state and extended targets printing below, we looked for a failed breakout or test of MSI resistance to get short. That setup came just after 10 am on a less-than-perfect failed breakout slightly above MSI resistance at $685.23. We entered short with T1 at MSI support at $683.64, which hit cleanly. For T2, we looked to the premarket level at $682.15, but SPY reversed off MSI support and rallied back to our entry. Since the trend remained bearish, we avoided moving our stop to breakeven and instead kept it above the overnight highs. When SPY double-topped near our original entry, we reloaded back to full size and again targeted $683.64 for T1, which was quickly hit. With a second profitable trade secured, we reset T2 at the premarket level and entered profit protection mode, holding 30% of our position to trail lower. After a long, choppy wait, the afternoon triangle finally broke to the downside at 2 pm, delivering T2. We then moved our stop to breakeven and monitored for a failed breakdown or reversal cue. That signal arrived at 3:22 pm, prompting us to exit our final runner at $680.75 and call it a day. Another strong session in the books, two solid wins and a disciplined trail, all guided by MSI alignment, clean execution, and patience through the midday chop. Two for two thanks again to a clear plan, disciplined execution, and strong alignment between MSI signals, our broader market model, and key technical levels. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Friday could see SPY test the today’s lows and today’s highs. It all depends on earnings and any news on the China front. Of course any movement on the government shut down would also move the markets. But its probable SPY attempts to recover some of the day’s decline and move back above $685 where it’s a clear shot to $688 and then $690. If this happens and the bulls are able to keep price at the $690 level, its more new highs next week. Given the market is reacting to external forces without any real economic data, it’s critical to trade what you see and stay flexible. On the downside, $680 is key support where dip buyers are expected to defend once again; if it fails, the bears will target $677 and then $675. Our lean remains to trade with the prevailing bull trend buying the first tests of lower levels. But we’re also open to selling $688 to 690 on a failed breakout if momentum stalls. External catalysts will likely dictate the day’s flow, so use the MSI as your guide to stay aligned with real-time market state shifts. With VIX around 16, the bulls have reinforced a clear “risk-on” environment and remain firmly in control, focused on defending support. The bears need a decisive break below $680 to regain any real traction. With SPY closing well above $680, bullish momentum dominates, so we continue to favor dip buys while staying nimble and ready for volatility sparked by earnings or macro news. The key level for the broader bull market remains $640, and only a decisive break below that threshold would hand full control to the bears. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns remain the highest-probability setups in this environment, and with major data releases hitting in the premarket, traders should stay flexible, avoid entries during Ranging Market States, and ensure full alignment with the MSI before acting. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $688 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also buying $680 to $687 Calls reflecting the Dealers’ desire to participate in any recovery on Friday. The ceiling for tomorrow appears to be $690. To the downside, Dealers are buying $679 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling displaying some concern that prices could move lower. Dealer positioning has changed from slightly bearish/neutral to bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $684 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also buying $680 to $683 Calls reflecting the Dealers’ desire to participate in any rally next week. The ceiling for the week appears to be $690, although if this clears, $700 is the peak. To the downside, Dealers are buying $679 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 5:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling, reflecting a market that is hedged heavily given its’ lofty levels. This is not necessarily bearish, but instead with options relatively inexpensive, Dealers are fully hedged for what may come. We suggest any long book do the same. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged from bearish to bearish but again Dealers have added protection as SPY makes new highs daily. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

Trade the roadmap. Longs favored above $680 with resistance at $685 and $688. Avoid chasing breakouts unless supported by earnings momentum. Use the MSI to confirm structure and remain patient. Bears require a close below $677 to flip the bias. Until then, bulls remain in control despite Thursday’s setback.

Good luck and good trading!