Market Insights: Friday, October 24th, 2025

Market Overview

Stocks surged to fresh all-time highs Friday as a cooler-than-expected inflation report cemented expectations for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. The Nasdaq led the advance with a 1.2% gain, followed by a 1% rise in the Dow and a 0.82% climb in the S&P 500. The September CPI report, delayed by the government shutdown, showed prices rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year—both softer than expected. With this data in hand, Fed futures now imply a 99% chance of a rate cut at next week’s meeting and a 96% likelihood of another cut in December.

The Dow closed above the 47,000 level for the first time in history, while the S&P 500 crossed 6,800 and the Nasdaq also notched a record close. Investor sentiment was further lifted by corporate earnings, including a 13% surge in Ford after it delivered a strong quarterly report. Intel also reported solid results but pared early gains. However, geopolitical tensions resurfaced after President Trump abruptly canceled trade talks with Canada, citing a controversial ad campaign critical of his tariffs, which featured Ronald Reagan’s voice. Even so, the inflation report carried the day, triggering a wave of buying and solidifying the bulls’ grip on the market ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

SPY Performance

SPY opened at $666.44 and surged out of the gate on the CPI print, climbing steadily through the morning before peaking at $678.47. A minor pullback late in the session saw it close at $677.26, up 0.82% on the day. Volume came in at 61.15 million shares, in line with recent averages. The strong close above all key resistance levels confirms bullish momentum and solidifies the breakout from the multi-day consolidation range.

Major Indices Performance

The Nasdaq rallied 1.2% to lead the major indices, powered by gains in semiconductors and megacap tech. The S&P 500 added 0.82%, and the Dow climbed 1.01%, closing above 47,000 for the first time. The Russell 2000 outperformed once again, rising 1.18%, as small caps participated in the broad risk-on move. Breadth was strong, and leadership was diverse across sectors.

Notable Stock Movements

Ford jumped 13% after posting strong earnings that beat Wall Street expectations, while Intel also traded higher on solid quarterly results but faded off early highs. Among the Magnificent Seven, all stocks closed in the green except for Netflix and Tesla, the latter falling 3.39% on lingering concerns following its report. Tech, autos, and AI-adjacent names led the way, reinforcing the bullish tone.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil edged lower by 0.53% to $61.46, breaking the $60 level our model has long forecasted. The move could accelerate toward $50 if momentum continues. Gold declined 0.68% to $4,117, giving back some of Thursday’s gains. Bitcoin rose 0.96% to close above $110,500, continuing its grind higher alongside the broader risk rally.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield rose modestly by 0.23% to close at 3.999%, just under the key 4% threshold. Yields remain in a neutral zone for now, though a move above 4.5% would begin to weigh on equities. The 4.8% level remains a significant pressure point, with 5.2% still viewed as the tipping point for a potential 20% correction.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Thursday’s forecast highlighted $672.80 as the bias level, with targets above at $675 and $675.80. SPY opened at $666.44, then quickly surged through all resistance levels following the CPI release. The model accurately anticipated a strong move if the bias level held, which played out cleanly throughout the session.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

Friday’s price action validated the model’s bullish outlook, as SPY broke through all projected resistance levels and closed at a new high. After an early CPI-fueled surge, price consolidated briefly before a mild pullback into the close. The session played out with precision against forecasted levels, reinforcing confidence in the roadmap.

Premarket Analysis Summary

Premarket analysis expected resistance at $675 and $675.80 and favored long positions above the $672.80 bias level. SPY remained well above that threshold for most of the day, with intraday highs exceeding the upper range. No downside targets were touched, and the upside breakout aligned perfectly with the roadmap’s bullish lean.

Validation of the Analysis

Price respected every key level in Friday’s forecast. The roadmap called for a test and hold of bias followed by a breakout, which is exactly what occurred. Traders following the plan were rewarded with clean long setups that never threatened key support zones.

Looking Ahead

SPY’s projected range for Monday is $673 to $680. With no major economic data due until Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, headlines and earnings will take center stage. Resistance lies at $679, $680, and $682. Support sits at $675, $673, $671, and $667. The uptrend remains intact, and unless SPY breaks below $667, bulls retain control.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY closed at $677.26, well above the $663 bull/bear dividing line. The VIX fell 5.38% to 16.37, reflecting declining volatility and a continuation of the risk-on environment. Bulls now eye a clean break above $680, where resistance thins significantly. Bears would need a rejection at $675 or $673 to even attempt to regain footing, but the path of least resistance remains higher.

Expected Price Action

Monday may see consolidation after Friday’s rally, though momentum could extend if buyers push through $680 early. A backtest of $675 is possible and would likely be bought unless selling pressure accelerates. Without fresh catalysts, price may drift, but the trend remains higher into next week’s earnings and FOMC.

Trading Strategy

Focus on long setups near $675–$673 on pullbacks. Shorts remain delicate unless strong rejection occurs near $680–$682. Stay nimble, as headline-driven moves can shift sentiment quickly. Until SPY closes below $667 or $663, the bulls remain in charge.

Model’s Projected Range

SPY’s projected maximum range for Monday sits between $669.75 and $684.25, with the Call side dominating in a steady band that suggests choppy price action interlaced with trending periods. Both CPI and PMI came in better than expected, sending the market sharply higher to new all-time highs, where it also closed. With no economic news scheduled for Monday or Tuesday, the market will likely continue to respond primarily to earnings and headlines, with next week featuring reports from major players such as Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Google, Lilly, Visa, and Mastercard, as well as ongoing posts and commentary from the White House. Given these dynamics, it remains essential to trade what you see and stay nimble amid fast-moving external influences. After a gap up overnight and a CPI-fueled surge, the market moved straight up until around 11 a.m., when it consolidated in a tight range before mild profit taking hit into the close, with SPY finishing up 0.82% at $677.25, well above the $663 dividing line between bulls and bears. Volume was average, suggesting some digestion could occur at these levels, but overall market strength remains firmly with the bulls. They are in full control, and the path of least resistance continues to point higher into next week. For the bears to regain any meaningful influence, last Friday’s $653 low must break; if that occurs, $640 becomes the critical line where bulls must defend to prevent a confirmed bear market, a scenario that currently appears very unlikely. For near-term pullbacks, SPY would need to back-test $675 for the bears to even get back in the game, though a successful defense there would almost certainly lead to renewed buying and higher prices. A failure at $675 and $673 would open a move to fill the gap, but only a decisive close below $663 would truly bring the bears back in force. Until then, dip buying remains the dominant strategy, as bulls continue to display resilience despite persistent macro risks such as the government shutdown and tariff rhetoric. For Monday, resistance sits at $679, $680, and $682, with support at $675, $673, $671, and $667. Above $680, there is little resistance to slow further gains, while below $675 a strong wall of support extends down to $660. Since reclaiming $585, SPY has maintained a broad uptrend fueled by consistent dip buying despite occasional volatility, though that structure has softened slightly. Crypto and virtually all Mag stocks rallied today, reinforcing the market’s strength and risk-on tone. As we’ve emphasized for weeks, until sustained weakness emerges in these market leaders or in crypto, the broader trend remains higher. Persistent softness in those areas could still trigger the 10–15% correction we’ve been forecasting into year-end, though with each passing week the probability shifts toward early 2026. For now, the bulls clearly hold the advantage and did plenty today to maintain it. Next week is likely to be relatively quiet ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where we expect a significant spike in volatility. The VIX fell 5.38% to 16.37, signaling continued risk-on sentiment and sitting comfortably below the 23 threshold that would indicate market stress. SPY closed mid-channel within its bull trend from the April lows, a structure that has weakened modestly but continues to support the ongoing uptrend. 

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended the day in a Bullish Trending Market State, with SPY closing well above MSI resistance turned support. Extended targets printed from the premarket until virtually the end of the day. While there were no extended targets printing at the close, clearly the MSI is forecasting higher prices. The MSI rescaled higher overnight but by the open the MSI held steady in a wide, bullish state. This implies volume was not strong enough to force the MSI to rescale higher. As such for Sunday’s and Monday’s session, expect a bit of back testing to $675 or MSI support at $674.09 where we expect the bulls to step up and buy the dip. MSI support is $674.09 and lower at $671.54.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Thursday we wrote, “Friday brings delayed CPI and PMI data, both of which are likely to move the markets, especially since they’ll be released well before the open, meaning direction could be firmly established by the time regular trading begins,” and noted, “the bulls have issued a clear ‘risk-on’ signal, implying the all-clear for the next 30 days,” while also stating, “Yesterday’s 1% drop already feels distant as buyers reclaimed control and pushed SPY higher, setting the stage for new all-time highs.” With this context, and with the MSI in a bullish state at the open well above MSI resistance turned support and extended targets printing heavily into the open, the only trade setup worth considering was to find a long entry supported by structure. There was little to work with initially as SPY opened around $675.75, a level we had identified as major resistance, but once that level broke and price retested it at 10:54 a.m., forming a clean triple bottom, we went long. With no valid MSI or premarket levels to lean on for targets, structure became the guide while the MSI confirmed the trend’s strength and direction. The market’s bullish momentum was clear, and T1 at the CPI high was achieved by 11:18 a.m. With no additional reference levels to define a second target, we waited for a double top to form and exited T2 slightly higher at $678.35 while trailing the remainder with a stop at breakeven. The market continued to grind higher in line with the MSI’s bullish signal, delivering another solid, well-executed trend trade powered by strong alignment between price action, structure, and model confirmation. We held this final 10% for hours and finally at 2 pm decided enough was enough and we would rather start our weekend early than try to eek out a tiny gain. So we exited and called it a day, one and done, thanks again a clear plan, disciplined execution, and strong alignment between MSI signals, our broader market model, and key technical levels. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Monday and Tuesday have no scheduled economic news, making it critical to trade with the MSI and respond to what you see rather than trying to predict reactions. Tariff headlines and other administrative comments are likely to continue driving short-term market sentiment. With VIX pulling back sharply today, the bulls have issued a clear “risk-on” signal, suggesting an all-clear for now. However, early in the week, the market is more likely to move sideways and consolidate rather than extend significantly higher. While a break of the day’s high is possible, it’s unlikely SPY pushes meaningfully beyond $680 before Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where volatility and larger moves are expected. The bulls remain firmly in control and will look to defend $675 overnight to support the next leg higher, while the bears need $675 and then $673 to fail to push price back below $663, a low-probability outcome without a major catalyst. The broader path of least resistance continues to point higher, and with a close well above $663, the bulls maintain strong momentum heading into the week. The MSI also projects higher prices, and any dip toward $673 should be viewed as a buying opportunity in alignment with the prevailing bullish trend. The critical line for the broader bull market remains $640, and only a decisive break below that level would shift full control to the bears. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns remain the highest-probability setups in this environment, and with major data releases hitting in the premarket, traders should stay flexible, avoid entries during Ranging Market States, and ensure full alignment with the MSI before acting. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $678 to $691 and higher strike Calls while also selling $675 to $677 Puts indicating the Dealers’ belief that prices may stall near today’s highs but will not drop below $675 on Monday. Dealers only sell ATM Puts when they are convinced the market will move higher. The ceiling for Monday appears to be $680. To the downside, Dealers are buying $674 to $600 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling displaying no concern that prices could move lower on Monday. Dealer positioning has changed from slightly bearish/neutral to neutral.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $678 to $705 and higher strike Calls while also selling $674 to $677 Puts indicating the Dealers’ belief that prices may stall near today’s highs but will not drop below $674. The ceiling for the week appears to be $690. To the downside, Dealers are buying $673 to $560 and lower strike Puts in a 5:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling, reflecting a market that is hedged heavily given its’ lofty levels. This is not necessarily bearish, but instead with options relatively inexpensive, Dealers are fully hedged for what may come. We suggest any long book do the same. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged from bearish to bearish but again Dealers have added lots of protection as SPY makes new highs. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

Trade the roadmap. Longs remain favored above $667, with upside targets at $679 and $682. Be alert for potential profit-taking near resistance, but until key support fails, bulls remain firmly in control. Let price confirm before entering, and keep risk defined.

Good luck and good trading!