Market Insights: Monday, September 21st, 2026

Market Overview
Stocks kicked off the week in full risk-on mode Monday, with the Nasdaq surging 2.3% to a new all-time high, the S&P 500 gaining 1.5%, and the Dow rising 0.7% after three straight weekly losses. The mood shifted as oil prices retreated below $100 on hopes that US-Iran diplomatic talks could resume, bitcoin jumped to an eight-month high above $86,000, and AI enthusiasm roared back ahead of a high-stakes summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. The talks are expected to center on extending the tariff truce and AI cooperation, with a roster of heavy hitters attending a dinner with Xi — including Nvidia's Jensen Huang, OpenAI's Sam Altman, Qualcomm's Cristiano Amon, Microsoft's Satya Nadella, and Wall Street CEOs from Citi and JPMorgan. It's a critical moment given the ongoing debate, sparked by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's widely circulated essay, over whether frontier AI labs should slow down model development.

There's also a valuation case building in tech. Truist CIO Keith Lerner noted the S&P 500 tech sector's forward P/E has dropped from 32 times last October to around 21 times — roughly where it stood when ChatGPT launched in 2022 — while forward earnings growth estimates have climbed about 20% in just three months, making the sector a "relative opportunity" with its valuation premium near a decade low. Tesla added to the positive tone after opening Roadster reservations, requiring a $5,000 deposit followed by a $45,000 wire transfer, with a reveal set for October 1. Apollo's chief economist Torsten Sløk flagged the key assumption holding together hundreds of billions in AI data center credit — that hyperscaler operating cash flow grows from $600 billion in 2025 to $2 trillion by 2030 — warning that a miss there could ripple through credit spreads and capex plans. Meanwhile, Russia is set to extend its diesel export ban beyond September after a Ukrainian strike on a major refinery near Moscow rattled supply confidence, pushing US diesel prices to a new all-time high above $6.50 per gallon, up from $3.69 a year ago. On the energy transition front, the world added a record 693 gigawatts of renewable capacity in 2025, up 15.5% year-over-year, though IRENA says the pace needs to double annually through 2030 to hit global climate targets.

SPY Performance
SPY opened at $766.25 and wasted little time making its intentions clear, with buyers stepping in almost immediately to push price higher through the session. The low of $766.03 came right at the open, which is exactly the kind of price action bulls love to see — a quick test of support that gets rejected and never revisited. From there, SPY climbed steadily toward the high of $774.89, reflecting broad participation and a market that found its footing after yesterday's uninspiring sideways grind. The close at $773.51 landed near the top of the day's range, which is a constructive sign heading into tomorrow.

SPY finished up 1.55%, a meaningful gain that suggests the bulls finally found the catalyst they were looking for after days of consolidation. Volume came in at 43.28 million shares, near average, so this wasn't a low-conviction rip driven by a thin tape — real money was moving today and it was moving in one direction. The VIX edged down just 0.07% to close at 14.80, which tells an interesting story. Despite a strong up day, volatility barely budged, suggesting the market isn't pricing in a surge of euphoria — just a calm, steady repricing higher. That's actually a healthier read than a sharp VIX collapse would be. One step forward, one strong step forward — the bulls needed to prove they could build on this week's action, and today they did exactly that.

Major Indices Performance
The Nasdaq led the charge today with a strong 2.26% gain, and it's not hard to understand why. When mega-cap tech names catch a bid in a meaningful way, the Nasdaq is always going to be the primary beneficiary given its heavy weighting toward those names. This wasn't a timid, grinding rally either — it was the kind of move that signals real buying conviction, not just short covering or a dead-cat bounce off recent weakness.

The Dow followed with a respectable 0.71% gain, which is solid for an index that tends to move more conservatively. Blue-chip names found their footing today, and the breadth of the move suggests this wasn't just one or two heavyweight components carrying the load. The Russell 2000 came in just behind at 0.67%, a decent showing for small-caps that had been taking it on the chin lately. Small-caps don't always participate cleanly in tech-led rallies, so seeing them post a gain of this size alongside the big boys is an encouraging sign for broader market health.

The S&P 500 also finished firmly higher on the day, confirming this was a genuine across-the-board risk-on session rather than narrow, concentrated strength. The VIX dropped just 0.07% to close at 14.80, which is a notable dynamic — fear is already sitting at a low level and barely budged even as equities surged. That tells you the market isn't pricing in much anxiety right now, which is either reassuring or a reason to stay alert depending on your perspective.

Notable Stock Movements
Meta flipped the script in a big way today, turning in a massive 11.34% gain that instantly made it the story of the session for mega-cap tech. That's a dramatic reversal from the punishment the stock absorbed in the prior session, and a move that size from a name with that much index weight doesn't just lift the stock — it carries the entire complex with it. When Meta runs like that, it creates a rising tide effect across the Magnificent Seven that's hard to fight, and today the group didn't have to.

The broader Magnificent Seven picture was overwhelmingly green, which stands in sharp contrast to the fractured, mostly red showing from the prior session. The cohesion was back, and the group moved together in a way that reflects real conviction returning to mega-cap tech. That kind of unified move is exactly what the Nasdaq needed to post the kind of session it did, and it signals that the selling pressure that had been weighing on these names appears to have eased — at least for now.

This green sweep from the Magnificent Seven fits cleanly into the risk-on tone that defined the broader market today. When the group locks in together like this, it tends to amplify momentum across the entire tape, pulling sentiment higher and giving investors more confidence to lean into positions. The cautious, uncertain mood that had been hanging over the complex has lifted noticeably, and today's performance from these names suggests the mega-cap core is back in the driver's seat rather than creating headwinds for everyone else to navigate around.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil got hit hard again today, dropping 8.13% to close at $92.15. That's back-to-back sessions of significant selling pressure, and while black gold is clearly coming off the boil, it's still sitting well above levels where model expectations originally pointed. The structural drivers that pushed crude into the nineties haven't disappeared overnight, and supply dynamics along with geopolitical undercurrents can shift quickly. Even with two rough sessions in the books, crude at these prices continues to feed into the inflation picture in a meaningful way — and that remains a complication for the Fed regardless of recent direction.

Gold pulled back 0.93% today to close at $4,384. After yesterday's quiet positive session, today's dip is more of a pause than a breakdown — the metal is still holding at historically elevated levels, and the macro environment that's been supporting it hasn't changed. Central bank demand and persistent uncertainty around inflation continue to provide the structural foundation underneath the trade. A sub-1% down day at these price levels is nothing more than digestion.

Bitcoin delivered another strong session, surging 6.85% to close just below $86,700. Two consecutive big up sessions is the kind of momentum that shifts the narrative — bulls aren't just stabilizing anymore, they're stacking gains. After weeks of tentative price action, this is the most convincing back-to-back showing crypto has put together in a while. The burden of proof is getting lighter with each session like this.

Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back today, falling 0.70% to close at 4.960. That's a meaningful move in the right direction, and bulls will take it — but let's not get carried away. A close at 4.960 means yields are still above the 5% line on an intraday basis for much of the session, and while the technical close does slip just beneath that critical threshold, the margin is razor thin. One strong economic print or a shift in Fed rhetoric could push yields right back above 5% before the week is out.

Here's where things stand in the framework. The 4.5% level that begins compressing equity multiples is still more than 45 basis points below current levels, meaning the pressure on valuations remains very much intact. The 4.8% crossover that historically precedes broader market selling is also behind us, and a single down day in yields doesn't change that reality. What today's move does accomplish is pulling the 10-year back from the most dangerous zone — above 5% — which is exactly where yesterday's session left things sitting uncomfortably.

The market's response was telling. The broad-based rally, with the Nasdaq leading and every major index finishing green, is consistent with what the framework would predict when yields retreat even slightly from the 5% danger zone. Risk appetite loosens, growth stocks find buyers, and the relief trade kicks in. Today was a textbook example of that dynamic playing out in real time.

The critical number to watch from here is whether yields can sustain a move back below 4.8%. That would represent a genuine shift in the pressure environment. On the upside, a return above 5% — and especially a push toward 5.2% — would put the most severe correction warning back on the table. For now, the yield picture improved today, but improved and resolved are two very different things.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Monday's forecast called for SPY to trade within a defined range of $755 on the downside and $770 as the max upside target, a fifteen-point window that the model characterized as trending territory rather than a sideways grind. With Friday's close at $761.54 sitting in the lower-to-middle portion of that range, the bias leaned cautious — not aggressively bullish or decisively bearish, but with the burden of proof resting on the bulls to push higher.

The key levels identified were tightly stacked around spot. $762 was the defining line just above Friday's close, with a clean break above it opening a path to $763 first, then $765 as the heaviest resistance battleground. $767 was the next critical test above there, and $770 stood as max upside and a major round number. On the downside, $761 was the first line of defense, with $760 identified as the most important level on the board — a level that had served as support all the prior week. Losing $760 would open $758, and a breakdown through there put $755 in play as max downside.

The trading strategy leaned toward 60-70% position sizing with stop-losses in the 0.75-1% range from entry, reflecting the compressed volatility environment with the VIX at 14.88. On the long side, the preferred setup was a controlled pullback into $759-$761 that stabilized and reclaimed $762, targeting $765-$766 first and $769-$770 as a secondary target. Traders were warned not to chase above $763 without volume confirmation. On the short side, $763-$764 was the fade zone, targeting $757-$758 initially and $753-$754 if sellers maintained control, with stops above $765. A VIX move back above 17 was flagged as the first warning sign to tighten stops and reduce net long exposure.

Market Performance vs. Forecast
Monday's session delivered a strong directional move that confirmed the framework's core structural read — the model projected trending conditions with real conviction behind the move, and that is exactly what the tape delivered. SPY opened at $766.25, which immediately told traders that buyers had seized control overnight, with price launching directly into the upper portion of the projected range and never looking back. The session printed a high of $774.89 and closed at $773.51, a gain of 1.55% on near-average volume — a clean, sustained trend day that rewarded the bullish bias the forecast outlined.

The directional call proved accurate. The forecast identified $762 as the gate that separated a purposeful lift from another stall, and the open well above that level confirmed bulls had already cleared the first hurdle before the opening bell rang. The $765 level the model flagged as the heaviest battleground above was cleared convincingly, and $767 — described as the level that would put buyers firmly on the front foot — was absorbed without much resistance at all. The move extended beyond $770, which the forecast correctly identified as a major round number with significant interest, and price pushed through to $774.89. External catalysts drove price action beyond the projected $770 max upside target, and the model does not account for unpredictable developments that introduce momentum exceeding the base case scenario. What matters is that the structural bias, the directional lean, and the key levels the framework identified all proved relevant and actionable throughout the session.

The VIX edging down another 0.07% to 14.80 continued the vol compression trend the forecast described in detail, validating the read that systematic and options-driven accounts remained in a risk-adding posture. Traders who entered longs on any intraday dip toward the $759-$761 zone prior to the open, or who respected the framework's bullish lean and sized into the trend, were rewarded with a move that stayed clean and directional all day. Risk management protocols kept capital protected for anyone who waited for confirmation before committing. The framework's ability to identify the correct directional bias and the key overhead levels that ultimately defined the session's structure is the durable edge here, and that clarity carries directly into Tuesday's setup.

Premarket Analysis Summary
The premarket analysis posted at market open set SPY's projected range for the session between $760 as max downside and $774 as max upside, with spot entering at $767.05 in a call-dominated tape following Friday's breakout that had finally resolved a week-long coil at $760 to the upside and carried price through $765. The expected move was seven points, signaling contained ranges unless one side forced the issue. The defining level was $770 — identified as the gate above spot, the heaviest concentration on the board, and the major round number bulls truly needed to clear with conviction to extend the move rather than cap it. Above $770, $771 was the next decision point and $774 stood as max upside at the top of the expected move. On the downside, $766 sat right beneath spot as the first watch level, $765 was identified as the most important level below — the floor of Friday's breakout and where the heaviest support sat — and losing it cleanly would put the entire move in question. Below there, $762 was the point of last hope, and $760 was max downside and last week's line in the sand, now elevated to major support. The analysis put the burden squarely on sellers, noting that holding $765 meant $770 would get tested, while losing it would bring $762 quickly.

The market rewarded the bullish bias in convincing fashion. SPY opened just below $766, tested the floor right near $766.03, and never looked back — running directly through the defining $770 gate and pushing all the way to a session high of $774.89, just a hair above the $774 max upside target. The close at $773.51 confirmed bulls forced the issue, turning every upside level in the premarket framework into support rather than resistance. The VIX slipping 0.07% to 14.80 reflected a clean, orderly advance rather than a panicked squeeze, validating the call-dominated structure the analysis had flagged heading into the session.

Validation of the Analysis
Today's session delivered one of the cleaner validations of the premarket framework in recent memory, with SPY threading through the level structure almost exactly as mapped out before the bell. The analysis opened the week flagging 768 and 769 as the first hurdles above spot at 767.05, with 770 identified as the defining level — the gate bulls needed to clear with conviction to extend the run. Price opened at $766.25, pulled within pennies of the 766 support level with a low of $766.03, and then did exactly what the framework projected for a tape holding that floor — it turned higher and went to work on the upside targets.

The sequence played out with impressive precision. SPY climbed through $768 and $769 without much resistance, then tackled $770 — the "heaviest concentration on the board," as the premarket called it — and cleared it with the kind of conviction the analysis said would be needed to extend the move rather than cap it. Once $770 gave way, $771 fell next, and the tape drove all the way to a high of $774.89, essentially tagging the $774 max upside target that defined the top of the expected move. The close at $773.51 confirmed bulls maintained control through the session and refused to give back the gains, finishing well above every resistance level the framework identified. The premarket's warning that the first test of $770 would tell traders a lot proved entirely correct — it told them the move was real. The VIX slipping 0.07% to 14.80 reflected the calm, orderly nature of the rally, consistent with a tape working through a defined structure rather than reacting to stress. Traders armed with the premarket levels had a clean roadmap: respect $766 on the open, buy the hold, and ride the level-by-level progression all the way to $774.

Looking Ahead
With the economic calendar showing no high-impact releases confirmed for Tuesday, traders get another session without a major data catalyst forcing their hand. No Fed speakers on the docket, no flash PMI estimates, no tier-one macro prints to reframe the narrative — just the market continuing to process wherever Monday's session leaves things and deciding whether it wants to build on that or fade it.

That kind of quiet setup puts the burden back on price action to tell the story. How the market opens Tuesday and whether it can hold or reclaim key technical levels will matter more than any headline, and that actually gives disciplined traders something useful — a clean read on underlying conviction without the noise of a scheduled event distorting the tape. The move is the same as it's been: let the market reveal its intentions, trade what's in front of you, and don't manufacture a thesis where the price action hasn't confirmed one yet.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels
The directional bias today belongs to the bulls — no ambiguity about it. A 1.55% gain on near-average volume with the VIX dropping to 14.80 paints a picture of controlled, confident buying rather than a short-squeeze panic. The fact that volatility barely budged — down just 0.07% — while price surged meaningfully is actually a healthy sign. It suggests the market isn't leaning on fear-driven positioning to fuel this move, but rather genuine risk appetite returning to the tape. The Nasdaq's 2.26% surge leading the charge, with the Dow and Russell 2000 lagging considerably, does introduce a note of caution — this is a tech-driven rally, not a broad-market one, and narrow leadership has a habit of fading without follow-through from cyclicals and small caps.

Key resistance sits at $774.89, the session high SPY tagged but couldn't hold into the close. A sustained push above that level on expanding volume would open a path toward the $776 to $778 range, where overhead supply from prior sessions is likely to create friction. On the downside, $766.03 — today's intraday low set right at the open — serves as immediate support, and a break below it would signal that buyers who stepped in early are losing conviction. Below that, the $764 to $762 zone becomes the next meaningful area where bulls need to defend. The 10-year yield sitting just below 5% remains the most important macro variable — any uptick back through that threshold could quickly cool the enthusiasm seen today. Bitcoin's explosive 6.85% gain and gold's modest pullback suggest risk appetite is rotating toward growth and momentum names rather than defensive hedges, which fits the tech-heavy leadership profile. Bulls are in the driver's seat for now, but they need broader index participation and continued yield stability to keep this momentum alive.

Expected Price Action
Tuesday's session brings actionable intelligence generated by our AI model, with SPY projected to trade within a range framed by $760 on the downside and $774 as the max upside target. That fourteen-point window keeps this in trending territory — traders should expect a directional move rather than a sideways grind, and walking in with a clear bias before the open matters. Monday's close at $773.51 sits in the upper portion of the projected range, which gives the bias a bullish lean heading into Tuesday, though price is already pressing near the top of the expected move, meaning upside from here is limited and the risk of a pullback to test support is real.

The defining level heading into Tuesday is $770 — the major round number and heaviest concentration on the board sitting just beneath current price. Bulls need $770 to hold on any dip for this tape to stay constructive; if spot dips back toward that level and bounces, the run stays intact and $771 becomes the next step, with $774 as max upside and the cap on the expected move. On the upside, there isn't much runway left before the model's ceiling, so any surge through $774 with volume would be a notable development worth watching closely. On the downside, $766 is the first level of immediate support beneath $770, but the critical floor is $765 — the base of Friday's breakout and where the heaviest support sits. A clean loss of $765 puts the entire recent move in question and opens a fast path toward $762, the last line of defense before $760 comes back into play as max downside. With the tape this extended after Monday's strong rally, the burden shifts modestly to bulls to defend $770 — hold it and Tuesday extends the trend; lose it and the retest gets ugly quickly.

Trading Strategy
The VIX dropping just 0.07% to 14.80 is essentially a flat reading on volatility, but the direction still matters — it held the compressive trend intact rather than reversing it, and at 14.80 the VIX is sitting in territory that keeps risk-on positioning comfortable. The marginal nature of today's vol decline actually tells you something useful: after a strong up session driven by broad participation and elevated tech leadership, the fact that the VIX barely budged suggests the market is not pricing in a surge of new risk — it's simply absorbing the move. A push back above 17 would be the first real signal to start trimming net long exposure and tightening stops meaningfully. Until that happens, 60-70% position sizing remains appropriate with stop-losses in the 0.75-1% range from entry — tight enough to protect capital without getting shaken out by normal intraday noise in a low-volatility tape.

In a rising market scenario, the key level to watch on the long side is a controlled pullback into the $766-$768 zone, where the opening base from today's session showed early demand. A dip into that range that stabilizes and reclaims $769 is the preferred long entry, targeting $773-$774 as the first profit zone and $778-$780 as a secondary target if momentum continues with broad participation behind it. Stops on longs belong below $764 to guard against a failed retest that turns the breakout into a trap. Do not chase price above $775 at the open without volume confirming the move — in a low-vol environment, gaps can fade sharply if buyers are not present in meaningful size.

In a falling market scenario, $773-$774 becomes the resistance zone to fade, and a clean rejection on the first morning bounce is the short trigger. That setup targets $768-$769 as the initial profit zone, with $764-$765 available if sellers take control and buyers fail to defend the breakout zone. Stops on shorts belong above $776 to protect against a squeeze through today's session high. If the tape opens weak and cracks below $768 without a meaningful bounce attempt, that is an actionable short entry at reduced size. With the VIX at 14.80 and still trending lower, the risk of a sharp short squeeze on any positive catalyst remains elevated — cover into support in layers and avoid overstaying short positions in a vol environment that can flip quickly and without much warning.

Model’s Projected Range
SPY's projected maximum range for Tuesday is $768 to $778, with the Call side dominating in an expanding band that suggests trending price action with intermittent chop. Tuesday brings no economic news due out so the market will trade on technicals. SPY had a strong session Monday, opening at $766.25, tagging a high of $774.89, holding a low of $766.03, and closing at $773.51, up 1.55% on the day — a clean grind higher that barely looked back. SPY remains in the $770 to $775 range that has defined recent trading, with trade deal optimism continuing to act as a macro tailwind keeping dip buyers engaged. If SPY can clear first resistance at $775 it opens the door toward $778, while a break below first support at $770 puts $768 in play to the downside — and if that level gives way there is little to keep price from falling toward $765. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 with SPY well above structural support. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $775, $778, $780, $781, while support rests at $770, $768, $765, $761. Given the close at $773.51 pressing the upper end of the range, we favor shorting rallies near $775 for quick scalps rather than chasing the move. Bitcoin surged 6.85% to close just below $86,700 and MAG stocks were mostly green across the board led by Meta ripping 11.34% — both leadership groups showed real strength Monday and that kind of broad participation supports the continuation of the broader rally. The VIX closed at 14.80, down 0.07%, suggesting the market remains in a low-fear, risk-on posture heading into Tuesday's session. SPY closed just below the upper line of the trend channel, with structural support near $770 keeping the broader uptrend intact and bulls firmly in control of the tape.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended in a Bullish Trending Market State with SPY closing at $773.51. With SPY closing above MSI resistance, that $772.65 level now flips to support heading into Tuesday. Extended targets were printing at the close, signaling that the current rally has no intention of slowing down. Extended targets were active during premarket and continued printing above throughout both the AM and PM sessions, reinforcing the relentless bullish momentum from open to close. The MSI overnight rescaled higher in a bullish state with extended targets and by the open, SPY was already above major resistance at $765. Extended targets began printing right after the open and SPY was straight up for the entire session. The MSI rescaled higher again around midday into a wide bullish state, giving the bulls even more room to run. The wide $3.67 spread confirms strong directional conviction, suggesting the market has plenty of energy left. With extended targets printing at the close, the MSI is forecasting a strong continuation higher on Tuesday with the bulls maintaining control and extended targets above suggesting upside momentum will persist. MSI support is $768.98 with resistance at $772.65.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
Friday we stated, "the forecast calls for a strong continuation higher on Monday with the bulls maintaining control," and added, "Bulls want to see overnight price hold above $761.87 MSI support and press toward new highs above $763.17," while also noting, "If the MSI rescales higher with extended targets continuing to print above, the post-FOMC rally has room to run and traders should stay with the trend." Monday delivered exactly that and then some. SPY opened at $766.25, already well above the prior session's key resistance at $763.17, confirming overnight strength before the first print. Extended targets were visible above the upper MSI line in premarket, putting traders on notice that the bulls were firmly in control from the start. Right after the open, SPY began a steady, relentless climb with no meaningful pullback, pressing from the open print all the way to a session high of $774.89. The MSI remained in a Bullish Trending state throughout the entire session, rescaling higher several times as price advanced, with each rescale confirming the trend rather than disrupting it. The primary setup of the day was straightforward — with SPY above MSI resistance-turned-support at $772.65 and extended targets printing above, the trade was to buy dips to that flipped support level and target the premarket levels overhead. The move from the open to the high represented a nearly nine-point range, and the MSI flagged it in real time with no ambiguity. At minimum it was a one-for-one session for traders following the framework, though the trending nature of the day offered ample opportunity to add to or re-enter the long position on any brief consolidation near the recalibrated MSI support levels. It was an easy day to read and execute with substantial setups, all identified through proper context, patience, and flexibility while leveraging the MSI, premarket levels, and market structure rather than forcing trades. SPY closed at $773.51, up 1.55% on the day, and the VIX dipped slightly to 14.80. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Tuesday has light economic news but the wide bullish MSI with extended targets above suggests continuation higher is the most likely outcome. The bulls are in complete control, extended targets remain active, and the MSI is forecasting that new highs are not just possible but probable in the near term. With the MSI in a wide Bullish Trending state and extended targets printing, any pullback toward support should be treated as an opportunity rather than a warning sign. Bulls want to see overnight price hold above $768.98 MSI support and continue pressing into uncharted territory above $772.65. If the MSI maintains its Bullish Trending state with extended targets continuing to print above, there is very little structural resistance to slow the ascent and traders should stay with the trend. Bears want to see $768.98 fail and the MSI rescale into a Ranging or Bearish state. If extended targets stop printing above and the MSI shifts lower, a cooling period toward $768.98 or even lower becomes possible, though the weight of the evidence favors the bulls decisively. Any dip that holds above $768.98 with the MSI maintaining its Bullish Trending state is a buying opportunity and traders should look to add exposure rather than fade the move. The wide $3.67 spread gives the MSI room to sustain the trend without an immediate rescale, which further supports the bullish case heading into Tuesday. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 and failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups. Remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States unless a clear failed breakout or breakdown presents itself, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven't yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Dealers are selling SPY $774 to $805 and higher strike Calls, indicating the Dealers' belief that the market faces meaningful resistance overhead and has limited upside without a catalyst. The ceiling for Tuesday appears to be $776. Dealers are also selling Puts at $765 to $773 in large quantities, a strong signal that they expect more upside than downside on Tuesday — Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $765. To the downside, Dealers are buying $764 to $720 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying moderate concern that prices could move lower. Should SPY fail to hold $772, $770 is in play with the market likely moving no lower than $768 without an external catalyst. Below $761 is bearish and above $762 is bullish with everything in between being choppy and trap filled. $775 will represent heavy resistance which runs to $777, above which there is little to keep the market from new all time highs. Dealer positioning is unchanged at bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $774 to $805 and higher strike Calls for the week ahead, reflecting their view that upside is capped near current resistance levels. The ceiling for the week appears to be $785. Dealers are also selling Puts at $765 to $773, signaling their belief that prices will continue to rally this week — Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $765. To the downside, Dealers are buying $764 to $720 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, though notably they have further reduced their hedges and appear to believe October will bring new all time highs, perhaps even sooner than expected. Below $760 is bearish and above $762 is bullish with the range in between being choppy and trap filled. There is major support at $772 and $768 with major resistance at $775 to $777. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged at bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders
With SPY closing at $773.51 and the 10-year yield at 4.960, bulls have a small window here — yields are still above 4.8% danger territory, so don't get complacent. Favor longs above $773.51 with stops below $766.03, but be ready to trim quickly if yields push back toward 5%.

Keep position sizes in check — one bad inflation print can flip this rally fast. Review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET for any changes in the model's outlook and Dealer Positioning.

Good luck and good trading!