Market Insights: Monday, September 15th, 2025

Market Overview

US stocks pushed to new all-time highs on Monday, led by continued tech strength and optimism heading into Wednesday’s pivotal Federal Reserve decision. The S&P 500 closed above 6,600 for the first time, gaining 0.52%, while the Nasdaq surged 0.94% to register its sixth consecutive record close. The Dow added 0.11%, continuing its recovery from early September weakness. Market sentiment was supported by progress in US-China trade talks, which took place in Madrid, and growing expectations of an imminent rate cut from the Fed.

As of Monday, traders were pricing in a 96% probability of a quarter-point rate reduction, with just 4% odds assigned to a larger cut. Meanwhile, speculation swirled over whether Fed nominee Stephen Miran would be sworn in in time to participate in this week’s vote. AI enthusiasm continues to drive bullish momentum, especially in the Nasdaq, while Tesla led headlines after CEO Elon Musk purchased $1 billion of company stock, sending shares up more than 3%. Oracle also ticked higher as US and Chinese officials reached a framework deal on TikTok ahead of a looming US ban. Nvidia dipped fractionally despite headlines that Chinese regulators had launched a preliminary antitrust probe into the chipmaker. Monday’s action underscores how deeply macro themes and megacap flows are driving equity performance into the most important policy meeting of the year.

SPY Performance

SPY rose 0.52% to close at $660.84 after opening at $659.51. The ETF made a new all-time high at $661.04 before slipping into a tight range and finishing modestly off its intraday high. Volume came in at 59.92 million shares, slightly below Friday’s total but still within the average range. Price action followed the expected consolidation-to-breakout pattern, with early strength giving way to range-bound drift for most of the session. Buyers defended pullbacks into $659 and held support cleanly above $658. Monday’s session confirms the strong underlying trend, as bulls continue to buy every dip and hold the line into resistance ahead of FOMC.

Major Indices Performance

The Nasdaq led with a 0.94% rally, continuing its historic run amid sustained inflows into AI, semis, and large-cap tech. The S&P 500 gained 0.52% to break decisively above the 6,600 level for the first time, marking a fresh psychological milestone. The Dow rose 0.11%, maintaining positive momentum while lagging the more growth-oriented indices. The Russell 2000 was the day’s laggard, falling 1.11% as small caps again underperformed amid concerns over economic sensitivity. Index-level performance shows a clear preference for quality and scale, with big tech attracting the bulk of the bid as macro risks mount.

Notable Stock Movements

It was a green day across the Magnificent Seven, with the lone exception of Nvidia, which slipped just 0.04% despite news that China had launched a preliminary antitrust investigation. Tesla jumped more than 3%, turning positive for the year, after reports that Elon Musk purchased $1 billion in company stock. Oracle also rose on reports that a TikTok framework deal had been reached between the US and China. The broad strength in megacaps reflects persistent institutional demand for defensible growth and the belief that AI and tech leadership will continue through year-end.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil climbed 1.04% to $63.34, continuing its choppy march toward the model’s long-held $60 target. While recent price action has been noisy, the broader view remains that normalization will ultimately push prices lower. Gold advanced 0.94% to $3,721, as inflation expectations and potential rate cuts continue to support precious metals. Bitcoin slipped 0.35% to close just above $115,400, pausing after its recent breakout. Crypto remains well bid as long as risk appetite holds and the macro backdrop favors looser monetary conditions.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.57% to close at 4.036%, easing for a second consecutive session. The drop helped support equities, particularly high-duration sectors like tech. As long as the 10-year remains below 4.5%, equities are likely to retain support. A move above 4.8% would introduce pressure, and 5% or higher could trigger a 20%+ correction. Monday’s dip in yields reflects a growing consensus that the Fed will ease, and that inflation—while still sticky—is not accelerating. Bond markets are telegraphing a pause and pivot, which aligns with equity price action ahead of the FOMC.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Friday’s forecast projected SPY would trade between $653.50 and $661.25, with a bullish bias above $656. It noted consolidation was likely and that a push to $660 could materialize. The model emphasized continued support at $655 and advised looking for a breakout above $660 to validate trend continuation. It also highlighted the potential for pre-FOMC drift higher, with a warning that a “Manic Monday” pullback could occur after five consecutive green sessions.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

Monday’s session landed squarely within the projected range and followed the model closely. SPY opened at $659.51, quickly moved above $660, tagged a high of $661.04, and then spent the rest of the day consolidating in a narrow band. Support at $658 held all session, and there were no meaningful tests of lower levels. The forecast correctly called for trend continuation with early strength and limited afternoon volatility. Once again, the model captured both direction and range with strong precision.

Premarket Analysis Summary

In Monday morning’s premarket notes at 6:49 AM, SPY was trading at $658.44 with a bullish bias above $657. The model pointed to 659 and 660.50 as upside targets, with support at 657, 656.50, and 655. It suggested long entries either on support holds or breakout continuation, noting that a break below 656.50 could shift momentum downward. The tone was cautiously optimistic, with the caveat that upside would need sustained participation to extend.

Validation of the Analysis

The premarket roadmap was validated as SPY opened higher and immediately took out the 659 target, then pushed through to test 661 before fading slightly. The 660.50 level marked the intraday ceiling, precisely as the model suggested. There was no clean break below 657, and bulls retained control all session. The day played out exactly as envisioned, rewarding those who followed the plan. Monday reinforced the utility of the model in navigating trend continuation setups ahead of major catalysts.

Looking Ahead

Tuesday’s Retail Sales report could introduce volatility, but most traders are focused on Wednesday’s FOMC. Until then, price action is likely to remain choppy with an upward drift. SPY continues to flirt with breakout levels, and a close above 662 would confirm the next leg higher. With bulls in control, every dip remains a potential buying opportunity. Traders should prepare for potential volatility spikes as key data and policy decisions approach.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY closed at $660.84, just above major resistance at $660. Key support is now at $658, $656, $655, and $650. Resistance is building at $662, $664, and $667. Bulls remain firmly in control as long as SPY holds above $645, with no major breakdown risk unless that level is breached. The market remains in a buy-the-dip mode, supported by strong flows, AI tailwinds, and accommodative expectations from the Fed.

Expected Price Action

Our AI model projects SPY to trade between $657 and $663 on Tuesday. Retail Sales could drive intraday volatility, but FOMC looms larger as the week’s main event. Monday’s gains suggest continued upward momentum, but traders should expect choppy action with trend bursts. Support at $657 should be defended overnight, and a move through $662 could trigger further upside. A drop below $655 would be the first sign of bearish pressure. Until then, the base case remains bullish.

Trading Strategy

Long trades are preferred above $657, targeting $662 and $664. Shorts may be initiated on failed breakouts above $662 or sustained breaks below $655. Traders should stay nimble ahead of Tuesday’s data and Wednesday’s FOMC, focusing on intraday setups and respecting key technical levels. Quick profit-taking and reduced overnight exposure remain advised. With the VIX at 15.69 and rising 6.30% on Monday, volatility may be creeping higher. Keep risk tight.

Model’s Projected Range

SPY’s projected range for Tuesday sits between $656.25 and $664.25, with the Call side dominating in a narrow band that suggests choppy price action with intermittent periods of trending behavior. Retail Sales are due out Tuesday, but we do not expect the market to move much ahead of FOMC on Wednesday. SPY posted yet another new all-time high and closing high, keeping the market on its upward path. Any weakness from Friday was quickly bought, with SPY now flirting with the breakout confirmation level of $660. A decisive close above this level would keep prices marching higher. Overnight, the market tested Friday’s lows but attracted buyers, and by the open SPY had already moved higher, continuing to a new all-time high before settling into sideways action for the rest of the day. Volume was average, and with SPY well above the critical $645 threshold and every dip being bought, the market is likely to hold these levels into FOMC, with the bulls in complete control of the broader narrative. As such, more new highs should be expected. We continue to view the odds of a sell-the-news event as 50/50, but we will not stand in front of this freight train while it climbs. Overnight, the bulls want to hold any pullback to $657, which must fail for price to fall. A failure there opens the door to $655, while a break below that would bring $650 into play. Until SPY falls to $640 or lower, however, the bears remain sidelined. Our base case remains a 10 to 15 percent pullback at some point this year, yet we continue to view any weakness as a buying opportunity until FOMC and recommend buying every dip above $645. For Tuesday, resistance is $662, $664, and $667, with support at $658, $656, $655, and $650. Since reclaiming $585, SPY has held a steady uptrend fueled by dip buyers. Today Mag stocks were all green, with only Nvidia slipping slightly. Until consistent weakness emerges in these leaders, or ETH closes below $4300, the market is likely to grind higher. We continue to favor quick profit taking and caution with overnight holds. The VIX rose 6.30% to 15.69, and while September often sees VIX reach 20, contango in VXX futures suggests volatility may drift lower into FOMC. If you have not added protection to your long book, now is the time. VIX below 23 supports the bullish case, but a breakout above it could finally spark the long-anticipated pullback. SPY closed firmly within a redrawn bull trend channel from the April lows, as the model currently sees the odds of a continuation of the bull trend as higher than a pending selloff.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended the day in a narrow Bullish Trending Market State, with SPY closing well above MSI resistance turned support. Extended targets printed virtually the entire session and in the premarket. The MSI rescaled overnight from a narrow bearish state to a bullish state which drove SPY to new highs. For Tuesday with the MSI printing extended targets but in a very narrow bullish state, we expect a bit of profit taking overnight but very likely some follow through to higher prices on Tuesday. MSI support is $658.90 and lower at $658.42.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Friday we wrote, “Monday has no news, and after two strong weeks of steady gains, we expect some pullback. This should be a buying opportunity with the bulls likely to defend as low as $652,” and noted, “we favor buying dips,” while also stating, “buy weakness above $652 and look for short setups on failed breakouts near today’s intraday high.” With that context, and with the MSI opening in a narrow Bullish Trending Market State with extended targets printing overnight and at the open, we looked for a spot to get long and ride the trend with the herd. That chance came at 9:46 AM when SPY pulled back slightly and formed a triple bottom, giving us a long entry at $659.69 with T1 just above the premarket level at $660.50. This target was reached early in the session, and with no other clear levels to lean on, we shifted to trading price action in search of a second exit. By late morning SPY formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, and with $660 being a major level and likely to provide heavy resistance on the first test, we decided to take off the rest of the position and move into profit protection mode. We avoided shorts since extended targets kept us from trading against the herd. SPY later fell to $659.50, and while we considered a second long, we chose not to reenter and instead called it a day before 1 PM. One and done, thanks once again to a clear plan, disciplined execution, and strong alignment between MSI signals, our broader market model, and key technical levels. The MSI continues to be a cornerstone of our consistent trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Tuesday has Retail Sales in the premarket, but we do not expect much market movement until FOMC on Wednesday. We still favor buying dips, but will be selective on Tuesday afternoon as the market may simply grind sideways until 2 PM on Wednesday. The bulls will defend $657 overnight, which should be treated as a buying opportunity. Above this level we favor buying dips, while below it we would consider shorts. The key question remains whether FOMC will fuel a continuation of the rally and confirm the breakout or turn into a sell-the-news event. For Tuesday the plan is to buy weakness above $657 and look for short setups on failed breakouts near today’s high. Even if $657 fails, the bears will only come to life on a drop below $640. As such, it remains likely we continue to see new all-time highs, and our bias stays to buy on dips. As always, failed moves remain among the highest-probability setups. Stay nimble, avoid trades during Ranging Market States, and ensure full alignment with MSI. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $661 to $670 and higher strike Calls implying the Dealers belief that prices may move sideways on Tuesday. The ceiling appears to be $664. To the downside, Dealers are buying $660 to $595 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling displaying little concern that prices could move lower tomorrow. Dealer positioning is unchanged from slightly bearish/neutral to slightly bearish/neutral.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $661 to $685 and higher strike Calls implying the Dealers belief that prices will likely pause around current levels this week. The ceiling for the week appears to be $665. To the downside, Dealers are buying $660 to $540 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling, reflecting a bearish outlook for the week, but less so. This is likely more hedging than a bearish prediction. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged from bearish to bearish, We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

SPY closed at $660.84, confirming its breakout. Long trades are favored above $657, targeting $662 and $664. Shorts can be considered below $655 or on failed breakouts above $661. With Retail Sales due Tuesday and FOMC Wednesday, volatility may increase. Keep size small, stay nimble, and lean on model and MSI levels. The trend remains up, but risks are growing.

Good luck and good trading!