Market Insights: Friday, August 7th, 2026
Market Overview
US stocks finished the week on a high note Friday as a surprisingly weak jobs report shifted the conversation back to Federal Reserve rate policy. The Dow edged up 0.3%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.3% — capping a strong week that saw the Nasdaq surge 5% and the S&P 500 tack on nearly 3.5%. July's jobs report was the headline driver, showing the economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs while unemployment dipped slightly to 4.1% — well below the 80,000 job gains and 4.2% unemployment rate economists had forecast. That miss was enough to cool talk of another Fed rate hike at the next meeting, with traders now eyeing Wednesday's CPI release as the next big clue on where policy is headed.
On the energy front, oil slipped Friday as the US-Iran peace deal remained elusive. Thursday night brought fresh headlines of explosions in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran reportedly intercepted what it called "hostile targets," adding more noise to an already tense situation. Iran and Oman are still working toward a deal to reopen the strait, though the latest reports suggest Iran may move to restrict US and Israeli ships from the critical waterway — keeping geopolitical uncertainty firmly in the picture heading into next week.
SPY Performance
SPY opened at $771.02 and wasted little time pushing higher, tagging a session high of $773.91 before pulling back slightly into the close at $773.22. The low of $769.61 was set early and largely forgotten as buyers maintained control throughout the day, keeping the tape well-supported and preventing any meaningful retest of lower levels. After two consecutive quiet red sessions, this is exactly the kind of follow-through that bulls were looking for — a clean, decisive move higher that confirms the path of least resistance is still pointing up.
SPY finished up 0.61%, snapping that two-day skid with authority and reclaiming ground without much drama. Volume came in at 36.85 million shares, still below average, but the quality of the move matters more than the quantity here — price advanced on orderly buying without any signs of exhaustion or distribution. The VIX dropped 1.85% to close at 14.87, extending its retreat and pushing volatility further into comfortable territory. When SPY grinds higher and the VIX keeps bleeding lower simultaneously, the market is sending a consistent message — participants are not hedging, not panicking, and not positioning defensively. That combination of rising price, below-average volume, and a fading VIX paints a picture of a market that is quietly confident rather than recklessly exuberant, and that tends to be a healthy backdrop for further upside.
Major Indices Performance
The Nasdaq led the charge today, climbing 1.3% in what was the strongest showing among the major indices. Growth and tech names found renewed buying interest, and the momentum that was largely absent in the prior session came back in a meaningful way. When the Nasdaq is posting gains north of 1%, it usually means money is flowing back into higher-beta names with some conviction, and that's exactly the tone the session carried.
The Russell 2000 wasn't far behind, gaining 1.13% and showing that small-cap investors were willing to take on some risk today. Small-caps had been flashing warning signs recently, so seeing them participate in a broad rally is an encouraging sign for overall market health. The index still has ground to recover, but a day like this at least suggests the risk-on engine has some fuel left in the tank.
The Dow was the relative laggard of the session, though calling a 0.28% gain a laggard is being generous with the criticism — it's still a positive day for blue chips. The more muted move in the Dow reflects the rotation dynamic that often plays out when growth is leading, as institutional money tends to favor higher-octane exposure on risk-on days rather than loading up on the more defensive, dividend-heavy names that dominate the Dow. The S&P 500 also finished in the green, and the broad participation across all major indices gives today's session a more legitimate feel than a single-index pop would suggest. Overall, the bulls were clearly in control, and the tape had a constructive tone from open to close.
Notable Stock Movements
Tesla was the standout name in the Magnificent Seven today, charging higher by 2.83% to lead the group and set the tone for what was a broadly constructive session across the cohort. After recent sessions where the group struggled to find consistent footing, seeing Tesla out front with that kind of move is a meaningful shift in energy. The stock carries a lot of speculative weight and retail attention, so when it runs, it tends to lift the mood across the entire growth complex. Today it did exactly that.
The rest of the Magnificent Seven were mostly green alongside Tesla, which is a welcome change from the back-to-back red sessions that defined the prior days. The one exception was Alphabet, which continued its rough stretch by sliding another -0.96% and once again finishing as the only meaningful drag on the group. Three consecutive losing sessions from the same name is a pattern that demands attention — Alphabet simply cannot find a bid right now, and that persistent weakness from one of the most influential names in advertising and AI is worth monitoring closely even on a day when everything else is working.
Still, one underperformer isn't enough to dampen the broader message here. A mostly green sweep from the Magnificent Seven aligns cleanly with the risk-on feel of the broader tape today, where small caps and the Nasdaq both posted strong gains. When the growth leaders are participating on the upside in near-unison, it reinforces bullish sentiment rather than just masking it. The bulls needed to see this kind of broad participation from the group, and today they got it — with the notable exception of Alphabet, which remains the one name keeping this from being a clean win for the entire cohort.
Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil pulled back slightly today, slipping 0.39% to settle at $76.99, but the bigger picture hasn't changed much. The commodity is still running well above $70, and the forces keeping it elevated — geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and sticky demand — remain in play. One down session doesn't erase a rally of this magnitude, and as long as crude holds this range, energy's inflationary contribution stays on the Fed's radar. That's not a helpful backdrop for anyone hoping rate cuts arrive sooner rather than later.
Gold had another impressive session, surging 3.78% to close at $4,402. After the massive breakout that pushed the metal above $4,300, seeing it extend gains rather than stall out is a strong signal that buyers are firmly in control. The momentum here is undeniable, and with gold now sitting at $4,402, the record territory keeps expanding. The structural case for gold — uncertainty, inflation concerns, central bank demand — continues to fuel the move, and there's nothing in today's price action that suggests the trend is in danger of reversing.
Bitcoin bounced back today, climbing 1.01% to close just above $64,910, erasing yesterday's modest dip and then some. The $64,000 zone held as support exactly as expected, and the quick recovery reinforces that buyers are still engaged at these levels. The broader setup remains constructive, and today's follow-through suggests the brief cooldown was just that — brief. The path toward the next leg higher looks intact as long as Bitcoin continues finding support on any pullback.
Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield took a small step in the right direction today, dipping 0.21% to close at 4.660%. It's a modest move, but after yesterday's discouraging reversal higher, bulls will take any relief they can get. The problem is that one small down day doesn't change the bigger picture — yields are still firmly planted above the 4.5% threshold where equity pressure becomes a real factor, and the narrative hasn't materially shifted just yet.
At 4.660%, the yield sits 16 basis points above that 4.5% danger line, and while the gap to the 4.8% selloff trigger has widened slightly back to 14 basis points, there's still precious little margin for error. Yesterday's move higher erased most of the breathing room built up during the prior pullback, and today's dip only recovers a fraction of that ground. The fact that equities managed to post gains across the board despite yields remaining elevated is an encouraging sign of underlying resilience, but it doesn't mean the bond market threat has been neutralized.
The 5% and 5.2% danger zones remain distant for now, and that's worth acknowledging. But the yield needs to do more than drift slightly lower on a quiet session — it needs a sustained, convincing move back toward 4.5% before anyone can declare the pressure off equities. Watch closely for whether today's small decline has any follow-through. If yields stabilize and continue grinding lower toward 4.6% and eventually 4.5%, the equity rally can find firmer footing. If they reverse and push back above 4.7%, that would signal the bond market is still firmly in control, and today's equity strength would look more like a temporary reprieve than a durable turning point.
Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Friday's forecast called for SPY to trade within a fourteen-point range bounded by $764 on the downside and $778 as the max upside target. With Thursday's close at $768.60 sitting in the lower half of that projected range, the bias leaned bearish heading into the session, with the bulls carrying the burden of proof. The $768 level was identified as the most critical decision point — Thursday's close right on top of it meant buyers were holding on by a thin margin, and the model warned that losing that level cleanly would confirm the reversal sellers had been pushing for and accelerate the unwind. A move back above $770 was the first threshold bulls needed to clear, with $772 and $775 as the next meaningful resistance zones above that. The full upside path extended through $776 and $777 before reaching the $778 ceiling, while the downside offered little cushion below $768 — $765 was the next shelf and $764 was the floor of the expected move.
On the strategy side, the VIX at 15.35 supported normal-to-slightly-elevated position sizing in the 85-95% range, with stop-losses kept in the 1.0-1.25% range from entry. In a falling market scenario, failure to hold $768.60 on a retest opened a short entry targeting $765-766, with stops above $772. A push through $765 with conviction set up a more aggressive short targeting $759-760, though chasing deep into oversold territory was discouraged given how quickly snap reversals can materialize at low VIX levels. In a rising market scenario, bulls needed to reclaim $771-772 early to signal the pullback was just digestion, with a clean breakout targeting $775-776. The conservative long entry was a clean bounce off $767-768 targeting $771 first and $773-774 on follow-through, with stops below $763. Confirmation of participation and breadth before committing full size was the recommended approach throughout.
Market Performance vs. Forecast
Friday's session opened at $771.02, stepping directly into the rising market scenario the forecast laid out — specifically the $771-772 zone the model identified as the key reclaim level bulls needed to hold to signal the prior day's mild softness was nothing more than digestion. That's the framework doing exactly what it's designed to do, flagging the precise decision zone before the open and watching price respond to it in real time. The intraday low of $769.61 held cleanly above the $768 line-in-the-sand the forecast identified as the most critical battlefield heading into the session, meaning the floor structure the model built never came under serious threat.
The close at $773.22 represented a gain of 0.61%, landing right inside the $773-774 follow-through target the rising market scenario projected on momentum continuation from the $771-772 reclaim. Bulls did exactly what the forecast said they needed to do — reclaim that zone with participation and press higher — and the model had the roadmap drawn in advance. The intraday high of $773.91 approached the $775-776 target zone, with price pulling back modestly to close just beneath it, a textbook example of the range architecture absorbing the move cleanly. Below-average volume on an advancing session is worth noting, as the forecast cautioned that thin-volume strength can evaporate quickly, and the measured close rather than a full extension to $775-776 reflects exactly that dynamic playing out. The VIX declining 1.85% to 14.87 continued the low-fear trend the framework anticipated, reinforcing that the tape remains calm and positioned for normal-to-slightly-elevated exposure. The directional bias, the key levels, and the volatility read all aligned — and that consistency across back-to-back sessions is precisely what makes the framework worth trusting.
Premarket Analysis Summary
The premarket analysis posted at market open identified SPY spot at $770.60 in a call-dominated environment, framing the session as a stabilization after the prior day's pullback with the market holding exactly where it needed to. The expected move was structured with $778 as the maximum upside cap and $764 as the maximum downside floor. The defining gate above was set at $772 — the same level that had been in focus, and the line buyers needed to reclaim to confirm the mid-week stall was nothing more than a pause. Above $772, the roadmap pointed to $773 as the first target, $775 as the heaviest area of interest and the real test, then $777 leading into $778 as the top of the expected range. On the downside, $770 was flagged as the immediate battleground given spot was sitting right on it, with $769 as the level where selling pressure could accelerate, $768 as the most important defensive line carrying the heaviest concentration of interest, $767 as the next step lower, and $764 as the max downside floor. The analysis noted that Friday sessions after a mid-week stall can resolve either way, but warned that a failure at $770 early would offer little cushion before $768 came into view.
The actual session resolved to the upside and largely validated the call-dominated structure. SPY opened at $771.02, quickly clearing the $770 battleground, and pushed through the $772 gate before reaching a session high of $773.91 — tagging the $773 target and pressing toward $775. The close came in at $773.22, a gain of 0.61% on below-average volume, confirming that buyers reclaimed the gate and followed through with conviction. The downside targets were never seriously threatened, with the session low of $769.61 briefly touching near the $769 level before buyers stepped in early. The VIX dropping 1.85% to 14.87 reinforced the constructive tone, reflecting a calm and orderly advance rather than any lingering anxiety from the prior day's selling.
Validation of the Analysis
Friday's session validated the premarket framework cleanly, with SPY following the upside roadmap from start to finish and hitting levels the analysis had marked out before the open. The premarket identified 772 as the defining gate above spot — the level buyers needed to reclaim for the tape to resume higher — and that's precisely where the action centered. SPY opened at $771.02, just below that threshold, and the early battle was exactly what the analysis described. Buyers pushed through 772 and kept climbing, reaching a session high of $773.91 that blew past the 773 target and drove deep into the 775 zone the premarket flagged as where the heaviest interest would sit and the real test would come. The close at $773.22 settled right between those two targets, confirming buyers had full command once that gate gave way.
The downside levels also proved their worth early in the session. The premarket warned that 770 was the battleground round number and that losing it cleanly would reopen the door lower — instead, the session low of $769.61 briefly dipped below 770 and found buyers almost immediately, which was the exact setup the analysis described for a Friday that could resolve either way. That low held well above the 768 level flagged as where the heaviest defense would sit, meaning the dip never became anything more than a shakeout. Traders who used the 769 to 770 zone as a long entry with the premarket's upside targets in hand had a clean setup with a defined stop and meaningful reward. The VIX dropping 1.85% to 14.87 confirmed the calm, controlled tone of the rally. From the 772 reclaim to the 773 target print, the premarket's upside framework mapped every significant level of Friday's session before the market ever opened.
Looking Ahead
Monday brings the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and while it doesn't carry the same punch as a jobs report, it still matters. Manufacturing data gives traders a real-time read on economic activity and demand conditions, and right now the market is hyper-sensitive to anything that hints at slowdown or resilience. A reading above 50 signals expansion and could provide a modest tailwind for equities, while a contractionary print below 50 might stoke recession worries and add pressure heading into the week.
The good news is that Monday's setup gives traders time to assess and position without getting blindsided by a data dump. Use the session to get your levels straight, because the real fireworks arrive at the end of the week when Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate all hit simultaneously on Friday. Monday's PMI could very well set the early tone that either builds confidence or puts traders on edge before that bigger moment arrives.
Market Sentiment and Key Levels
The directional bias today tilts modestly bullish, with bulls making a quiet but meaningful statement across the board. SPY climbed 0.61% and closed near the top of its intraday range, which is constructive price action — it tells you buyers weren't just showing up early and fading, they were holding ground into the close. Volume came in at 36.85 million shares, below average, so this wasn't a thunderous breakout, but the quality of the move matters more than the quantity here. The VIX dropping 1.85% to 14.87 reinforces the tone — fear is compressing, and at sub-15 levels, the options market is pricing in a relatively calm near-term environment. That's a tailwind for equities as long as it holds.
Key resistance sits at $773.91, today's intraday high. A clean push above that level on improving volume would signal that bulls are pressing their advantage and could open the door toward the $776 to $778 zone, where overhead supply is likely to gather. A sustained move through that range with conviction would shift the short-term bias firmly bullish and put fresh all-time high territory back in the conversation. On the downside, $769.61 is the immediate support floor — today's intraday low. A break below that level on rising volume would be a warning sign and could expose the $767 area as the next line of defense, which would start to test the patience of even the more constructive bulls. The broad participation today — Nasdaq running 1.3%, small-caps joining the party up 1.13% — adds credibility to the move. Gold surging 3.78% to $4,402 and yields holding relatively steady are worth watching as potential macro wildcards. The bulls showed up today, but they need volume to confirm the follow-through.
Expected Price Action
Monday's session brings actionable intelligence generated by our AI model, with SPY projected to trade within a range defined by $764 on the downside and $778 as the max upside target. That fourteen-point window clears the trending threshold, meaning Monday is set up for directional movement rather than sideways consolidation. With Friday's close at $773.22 sitting in the upper half of the projected range, the bulls hold the advantage heading into the new week — but the real test is whether they can sustain it.
The $772 level is the defining battleground heading into Monday. The premarket model flagged it as the gate above, and Friday's close cleared it convincingly at $773.22, which is an encouraging sign for the bulls. Holding above $772 keeps the door open toward $773, then $775 where the heaviest interest sits and the real resistance test arrives. Above $775, the model points to $777 and $778 as the expected move top and max upside ceiling. On the downside, $770 is the round-number battleground that becomes critical if buyers lose their footing — a clean break there reopens $769, and below that $768 becomes the most important level where the heaviest defensive fight would occur. Losing $768 cleanly would shift control to sellers and put $764 in play as the floor of the expected move. The VIX dropping 1.85% to 14.87 confirms that fear continues to drain out of the market, supporting the bullish lean. Bias is bullish as long as $772 holds — that's the line in the sand Monday, and how the tape responds to it in the early hours will set the directional tone for the entire session.
Trading Strategy
The VIX dropping 1.85% to 14.87 is a constructive signal heading into the next session. Options traders continuing to unwind protection suggests the market isn't bracing for anything dramatic, and at 14.87, fear is running genuinely low — not at dangerous complacency extremes, but calm enough to support normal-to-slightly-elevated position sizing in the 85-95% range. The modest gain on SPY with below-average participation keeps the tape from generating any urgent warning flags, but lighter volume on an up day means the move hasn't been fully validated by committed institutional buyers. Keep stop-losses in the 1.0-1.25% range from entry and stay disciplined — low-volatility environments can shift tone quickly on any surprise macro development, and overconfidence in a quiet tape is one of the more common ways traders get caught off guard.
In a falling market scenario, the first zone to watch closely is $769-770, where early weakness would immediately test whether buyers defend the session's low. A failure to hold $769.61 on a retest opens a short entry targeting $766-767, with stops placed above $774 to protect against a swift reversal back through the prior close. If sellers manage to push through $766 with conviction and volume confirms, the next meaningful floor sits at $763-764, which would represent a more significant breakdown and set up a short targeting $760-761. Don't chase shorts deep into that territory without a clear catalyst — with the VIX this subdued, snap reversals are frequent and punish late entries aggressively.
In a rising market scenario, bulls need to hold $773 and push toward $775-776 early in the session to signal that the upward momentum has legs. A clean breakout through $775 with solid participation targets $778-779 as the next profit zone, with $773.22 serving as the key pivot that must hold on any intraday pullback. The more conservative long entry is a dip toward $770-771 that stabilizes and bounces with real buying pressure, targeting $773 as the first profit area and $775-776 on follow-through. Stops on longs belong below $767 to protect against a deeper pullback into prior support. With the VIX at 14.87, there's no reason to trade defensively, but confirm that volume is actually showing up at your entry level before committing full size — quiet-tape strength has a habit of fading without warning when participation doesn't back it up.
Model’s Projected Range
SPY's projected maximum range for Monday is $767 to $779, with the Call side dominating in an expanding band that suggests trending price action with intermittent chop. Monday brings ISM Manufacturing PMI data, a high-impact event likely to produce significant volatility particularly in the first hour of trading. Friday's session saw SPY open at $771.02, push to a high of $773.91, hold a low of $769.61, and close at $773.22, up 0.61% on the day, with trading volume coming in below average — a steady grind higher that never got sloppy. SPY remains in the $770 to $775 range that has defined recent trading, with broader macro sentiment continuing to support equities as trade deal optimism keeps a bid under the market. On the upside, our model puts the first resistance at $775, and a clean break above that level targets $779 next — on the downside, the first support sits at $770, and a break below that opens the door to $767, and if that gives way there is little to keep price from falling toward the $765 area. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 with SPY well above structural support. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $775, $779, $780, $781, while support rests at $770, $767, $766, $765. Given SPY closed near the upper end of the recent range at $773.22, we favor shorting rallies near $775 unless the level breaks with conviction. Bitcoin closed above $64,910, up 1.01%, while MAG stocks had a mostly green day led by Tesla up 2.83%, with Alphabet the lone laggard down 0.96% — the strength across crypto and most of the Mag names supports the broader rally and keeps the bulls in control heading into Monday. The VIX closed at 14.87, down 1.85%, suggesting a measured reduction in fear that is consistent with the steady, low-drama grind higher we saw Friday. SPY closed near the upper portion of its trend channel, with structural support anchored around the $770 level that has held as a floor through recent sessions.
Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast
Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended in a Bearish Trending Market State with SPY closing at $773.22. Since SPY closed above MSI resistance, that former resistance level at $770.7 now flips to become support heading into Monday, and what was MSI support at $769.62 becomes a secondary reference level below. Extended targets were printing above at the close and had been active throughout the session, appearing in premarket, the AM session, the PM session, and into the close. The MSI rescaled higher overnight several times in a very narrow Bullish Trending state that carried through the bulk of the day. Price action was dynamic — extended targets drove the early session bid, but each time those targets stopped printing, SPY pulled back and found footing right at MSI support, which held to the penny and launched price back toward $775. When extended targets faded again in the afternoon, SPY retreated toward $770, but favorable news late in the session sent price rocketing back to the day's highs. SPY opened at $771.02, traded a low of $769.61, and reached a high of $773.91 before closing at $773.22, up 0.61% on volume of 36.85 million shares, which came in below average. The VIX dropped 1.85% to 14.87. The MSI range remains notably narrow at a $1.08 spread, and with extended targets still printing above at the close, the framework is pointing toward slightly higher prices on Monday, though not ones expected to push meaningfully beyond $780 — and $775 may act as meaningful overhead resistance. If the MSI does not rescale higher overnight, expect price to be rangebound and consolidating. The MSI is forecasting likely sideways to possibly up as the narrow bearish MSI suggests consolidation rather than strong trending. That said, the bears are likely to maintain pressure to the downside. Any failure of MSI support is likely to see SPY retest the day's lows. MSI support is $769.62 with resistance at $770.7.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
Friday we stated, "Bulls want to see overnight price hold $768.01 and the MSI rescale higher into a Bullish Trending state heading into the report," and added, "Bears want to see $768.01 fail and the MSI rescale lower with extended targets printing below after the report. If that occurs, SPY could retest the session low of $767.46 and press toward lower levels," while also noting, "The first MSI state following the jobs report will be the key tell for Friday — follow it and do not force a trade before it updates." That forecast aged well. The bulls absolutely delivered — $768.01 held overnight, the MSI rescaled higher heading into the session, and SPY never looked back in a meaningful way. The jobs data acted as the catalyst the MSI had been coiling for, and price broke well outside the prior session's narrow band as expected. The session opened with extended targets already printing above in premarket, clustering near the $770 to $771 area, which gave traders early directional conviction and an immediate setup as SPY pushed off the open. The MSI's Bullish Trending state held throughout the AM session with targets printing above, offering a clean entry on any dip toward MSI resistance-turned-support around $770.7, with the target being the premarket levels above. When extended targets paused mid-session, SPY pulled back and tapped MSI support to the penny, offering a second high-probability long setup at that level before price rebounded sharply toward $775. A third opportunity emerged in the PM session as SPY again retreated toward $770 when targets stopped printing, and the late-day news-driven surge provided follow-through that rewarded patient traders holding the long side with MSI confirmation. At minimum it was a 2-for-2 session for traders following the framework. It was a volatile but readable day with substantial setups, all identified through proper context, patience, and flexibility while leveraging the MSI, premarket levels, and market structure rather than forcing trades. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Monday has heavy economic data with ISM Manufacturing PMI, which can introduce significant volatility, so traders should be ready to trade what they see rather than predict. The data will set the tone for early price action and the MSI will update accordingly — wait for the report to land and let the MSI confirm a direction before committing to any trade. Chasing the initial spike in either direction without MSI confirmation is a low-probability approach on data mornings. Friday's session closed in a Bearish Trending state with a very narrow $1.08 spread and extended targets printing above, which is an unusual and important combination. It suggests some upside potential remains but the MSI is not offering strong directional conviction. Monday may see slightly higher prices but the move is unlikely to push meaningfully beyond $780 if it comes at all, and $775 may act as a significant ceiling. If the MSI does not rescale higher overnight, expect price to consolidate and grind rather than trend with conviction.
Bulls want to see overnight price hold the flipped support level at $770.7 and the MSI rescale into a Bullish Trending state with extended targets printing above. If that happens, the door opens for a retest of Friday's high at $773.91 and a push toward $775 and potentially beyond. Bears want to see $770.7 fail and the MSI rescale lower with extended targets printing below. If that occurs, SPY is likely to retest Friday's low at $769.61 and potentially press toward lower levels beneath the session range. The first MSI state of Monday's session will be the key tell — follow it and do not force a trade before it updates. With MSI resistance at $770.7 and support at $769.62, the range is tight and a decisive ISM print in either direction could blow price well outside this band quickly. Patience before the data and conviction after the MSI confirms is the optimal approach. With the narrow bearish close, do not assume the upside bias is a guarantee — the bears are still in the picture and any loss of $770.7 as support shifts the tone meaningfully.
The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 and failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups. Remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States unless a clear failed breakout or breakdown presents itself, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven't yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.
Dealer Positioning Analysis
Dealers are selling SPY $774 to $810 and higher strike Calls, indicating the Dealers' belief that the market may hover in its current range while waiting for an external catalyst. The ceiling for Monday appears to be $780. Notably, Dealers are no longer selling ATM Puts or buying ATM Calls, and they have not increased their hedges, which implies a market that could take some time to consolidate before attempting a move higher. To the downside, Dealers are buying $773 to $720 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying moderate concern that prices could move lower. For Monday, below $766 is bearish and above $771 is bullish, with nothing but chop in between. There is heavy resistance at $775 and $780, while below $762 there is support at $765 which will slow any decline. Dealer positioning is unchanged at neutral/slightly bullish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $774 to $820 and higher strike Calls for the week ahead. The ceiling for next week appears to be $775. To the downside, Dealers are buying $773 to $700 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying heightened concern that prices could move lower. Dealers are also selling Puts at $760, indicating their belief that prices will not fall below this level — Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $760. Dealers remained hedged but have not increased their protection heading into next week. With earnings season winding down, the next directional move will likely come from an economic data point or an external catalyst such as a resolution to the war in the Middle East. We recommend traders remain bullish above $776 but below $765 remain bearish, with chop in between. There is major support at $765 with major resistance at $780, which will slow any ascent above these levels. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged at bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.
Recommendation for Traders
With SPY closing at $773.22 and the VIX dropping to 14.87, conditions favor cautious longs. Look to buy dips toward $771–$770 with stops below $769.61, and trim into strength near $774–$775 if momentum fades.
Keep position sizing measured with volume running below average. Always review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET for any changes in the model's outlook and Dealer Positioning.
Good luck and good trading!
