Market Insights: Thursday, August 27th, 2026

Market Overview
US stocks climbed Thursday as blowout earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike fired up the tech trade ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium. The Nasdaq led the charge with a 1.5% gain, while the S&P 500 added 0.7% and the Dow rose 0.2%, building on the prior session's momentum. Nvidia surged 8% after posting a strong earnings beat and signaling robust AI demand well into next year, calming fears that its breakneck growth pace was unsustainable. Salesforce had its best day since August 2020 with a 22% jump, and Okta soared 28%. On the economic front, jobless claims ticked down to 203,000, a welcome positive for the labor market, while bond yields stabilized after last week's spike as investors weighed Treasury's intervention and the likelihood the Fed holds rates steady.

Nvidia's results rippled well beyond the chip sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose roughly 1.6%, Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom gained roughly 2.6% and 4% respectively, and Intel climbed 3%, though AMD, ASML, and Applied Materials slipped. Melius Research flagged that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's emphasis on securing land, power, and infrastructure to support AI expansion is a direct tailwind for independent power producers like Constellation Energy, NRG Energy, Vistra Corp., and Talen Energy. Separately, the Information reported Nvidia agreed to acquire AI model hub Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, and JPMorgan is reportedly arranging a $5 billion debt package to fund data center construction for Volta Infra Holdings. In retail, Dollar General and Dollar Tree both beat earnings expectations by attracting higher-income shoppers, though their stocks diverged on differing outlooks. All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Friday speech at Jackson Hole for clues on the rate policy path ahead.

SPY Performance
SPY opened at $768.50 and showed more life than the prior session right out of the gate, with buyers gradually pushing price higher throughout the day. The high of $772.35 and a low of $767.16 gave the session a range of $5.19 — noticeably wider than the prior day's tight chop — and the fact that price closed at $771.10, well in the upper half of that range, tells you the bulls were in control and didn't give much back into the close. This wasn't a violent, headline-driven surge, but it was the kind of steady, purposeful price action that tends to reflect genuine buying interest rather than a short squeeze or a knee-jerk reaction.

SPY finished up 0.66% on the day, a meaningful step up from the near-flatline of the prior session and a clear directional statement from a market that had been conserving energy. Volume came in at 34.02 million shares, below average but notably stronger than the prior day's thin tape — enough to suggest there was real participation behind the move rather than just drift. The VIX dropping 4.60% to 14.51 adds weight to the bullish read here. Volatility compressing at that pace while price advances is a combination the bulls want to see — it signals confidence rather than complacency, and it keeps the backdrop supportive for further upside as long as a fresh catalyst doesn't come along and disrupt the calm.

Major Indices Performance
The Nasdaq was the clear standout among the major benchmarks today, surging 1.57% in a broad-based rally that showed genuine buying conviction across the tech-heavy index. The move was driven in large part by massive strength in semiconductor and mega-cap growth names, with the kind of momentum that lifts the entire index rather than just a handful of stocks. After recent sessions where the Nasdaq was grinding sideways looking for direction, today's push higher was a meaningful statement from bulls.

The Russell 2000 came in second on the day, gaining 0.28% as small-caps participated in the broader market optimism, though in a much more modest way. Small-caps have been a tough trade in this rate environment, and while a quarter-point gain isn't exactly a breakout, it shows the group isn't being left completely behind. Until there's a clearer signal on where borrowing costs are headed, expect small-caps to keep lagging the growth-heavy indices on up days like this one.

The Dow rounded out the group with a quiet 0.2% gain, once again underperforming the broader tape in a risk-on session. That's a familiar pattern — when growth and momentum are leading, the blue-chip, dividend-heavy names in the Dow tend to take a back seat. It's not a red flag, just a reflection of where investor appetite is right now. With the S&P 500 posting a solid gain on the session and the VIX dropping sharply to 14.51, the overall tone was decisively constructive, even if the Dow didn't fully join the party.

Notable Stock Movements
NVIDIA flipped the script once again, this time in the best possible way, surging up to 8.74% to lead what was a broadly constructive session for the Magnificent Seven. When the group's highest-conviction AI name posts a move like that, it doesn't just lift the index — it lifts the mood. Institutional players watch NVIDIA the way traders used to watch the bond market for macro cues, and a move of that magnitude signals that the bid in these names has real teeth behind it. Yesterday's cautious tone fades quickly when the bellwether shows up with that kind of firepower.

The rest of the Magnificent Seven largely followed NVIDIA's lead, with most names finishing in the green and reinforcing the positive tone across the broader tape. The exceptions were Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, with Amazon leading that group lower at -1.54%. Three red out of seven on a strong up day is about as good a distribution as bulls could hope for — it shows the gains aren't concentrated in a single name and that the selling in the laggards isn't deep enough to undercut the group's overall momentum. Amazon's pullback is worth noting but not worth panicking over given the scale of strength elsewhere.

The overall read from the Magnificent Seven today is meaningfully more constructive than yesterday. This is the kind of coordinated push higher that the group needed — broad participation, a dominant leader, and limited damage from the handful of names that didn't join the party. The VIX dropping 4.60% to 14.51 adds to the bullish backdrop, suggesting fear is quietly exiting the room as these large-cap tech names reassert themselves. If this leadership holds through the week, the cautious narrative from the past couple of sessions gets harder to sustain.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil pushed higher on the session, gaining 1.17% to settle at $83.19. Black gold continues to trade well above $70, defying longer-term expectations and showing no real signs of backing down. The structural forces keeping prices elevated — geopolitical tensions, supply dynamics, and resilient global demand — remain firmly in place, and today's move only reinforces that this isn't a market ready to roll over anytime soon. As long as crude holds these levels, the Fed's inflation fight stays complicated, and energy remains a wildcard that policymakers simply cannot ignore.

Gold pulled back slightly from its recent highs but still managed a solid 0.84% gain to close at $4,637. The overall trend remains firmly intact, and buyers continue showing up consistently rather than letting the metal drift into any meaningful correction. Central bank demand, macro uncertainty, and lingering inflation concerns haven't faded, and the bull case here continues to look as strong as ever.

Bitcoin snapped back to life, climbing 1.29% to close above $80,049. After the flat, almost sleepy price action from the prior session, today's move is a welcome reminder that the underlying bid in crypto hasn't gone anywhere. Buyers stepped in with purpose, and the overall tone for Bitcoin remains constructive. Nothing in today's tape suggests the path of least resistance has changed — if anything, reclaiming the $80,000 level reinforces it.

Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield continued its grind higher today, adding another 0.17% to close at 4.670%. It's a modest move on its own, but the direction is what matters — and for the second straight session, yields moved the wrong way. What had looked like a potential retreat from elevated levels is now starting to feel more like a stubborn plateau, with the yield refusing to give equities the relief they need to build any kind of sustained momentum.

At 4.670%, the yield sits 17 basis points above the 4.5% threshold where this framework identifies real equity strain beginning. That's still not a five-alarm situation, but the comfort zone is getting narrower by the session. The 4.8% level — where selling accelerates and market damage starts becoming more than a nuisance — is now just 13 basis points away. That's one bad inflation print or one weak Treasury auction away from becoming the new battleground. The cushion keeps shrinking, and today's move makes it thinner still.

The 5% danger zone remains 33 basis points out, and the 5.2% correction territory — where a 20% or more drawdown enters the picture — is still a ways off. But the pattern over the last two sessions is worth noting. Yields are not retreating, and they're not plateauing comfortably — they're slowly creeping in the wrong direction. That kind of persistent pressure tends to cap rallies and keep sentiment defensive even on green days. The next major catalyst to watch is any fresh inflation data or Treasury supply event, either of which could tip yields toward 4.8% and force a more serious reckoning for stocks. Until yields break decisively back toward 4.5%, the ceiling on this market remains very much intact.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Thursday's forecast called for SPY to trade within a twelve-point range, with $760 as the downside floor and $772 as the max upside ceiling. The bias leaned modestly bullish, supported by fading fear and a positive prior close, though the tape was described as coiled and directionally uncommitted heading into the session.

On the upside, $767 was identified as the defining gate bulls needed to reclaim — a level that had already rejected multiple attempts. A clean break above it was expected to open the door to $768, then $769, with $771 flagged as the level bulls genuinely needed to claim to shift the near-term tone higher and put the week's grinding consolidation behind them. $772 stood as the ceiling of the full expected move. On the downside, $765 carried the most critical weight, having held twice during the week — a loss of that level Thursday morning was expected to hit with real force. Below there, $764 and $763 were identified as the next decision points, with $763 serving as the last structural defense before price risked accelerating toward $760.

The trading strategy recommended keeping position sizing in the 65-75% range with stop-losses in the 0.75-1.0% band, reflecting a calm but thin tape that could move fast once direction established itself. In a bullish scenario, the preferred long entry was a controlled morning pullback into the $764 to $764.50 zone, targeting $769 initially with a stretch to $770-$771, and stops below $763.93. In a bearish scenario, a decisive break below $763.93 on building selling pressure was the trigger for shorts, targeting $761 first and $758-$759 as the secondary destination, with stops above $767.

Market Performance vs. Forecast
Thursday's session delivered a strong validation of the model's directional framework and key structural levels. SPY opened at $768.50, blowing right through the $767 gate that had been identified as the defining line between continued chop and real tape repair — and buyers never looked back. The open itself landed squarely above the $767.35 reclaim level that bulls needed to clear with conviction, essentially rendering the bearish scenario off the table from the opening bell and putting the bullish roadmap front and center for the entire session.

What the forecast got right was the directional bias, the level structure, and the range construction. The modestly bullish lean heading into Thursday proved entirely correct, with price spending the full session above the critical $767 threshold and ultimately closing at $771.10 — well within the projected $760 to $772 expected move window. The high of $772.35 did edge fractionally beyond the $772 max upside ceiling, but that's a testament to the strength of the move rather than a failure of the framework. External momentum from fading fear and continued market positioning drove price to test the upper boundary, and risk management protocols on any positions sized within the 65-75% guidance kept exposure well-calibrated through that extension. The $769 initial profit target and the $770 to $771 stretch zone flagged in the rising market scenario were both tagged cleanly, giving disciplined traders multiple opportunities to book gains along the way. The VIX cooperated emphatically, dropping 4.60% to 14.51 and confirming exactly the low-anxiety, bias-higher environment the model had anticipated. The framework mapped Thursday's structure with real accuracy, and that kind of directional and level-based precision is precisely where the consistent edge lives.

Premarket Analysis Summary
The premarket analysis posted at market open identified SPY spot at $768.52 in a call-dominated tape, having just broken cleanly out of the range that held all week and reclaiming $767 in the process. The expected move was set at seven points, and the defining level of the day was $770 — flagged as the gate right above spot and the level that would decide whether the move was real or another failed push. Upside targets were set at $771, $772, $774, and $776, with $771 as the first quick target on a hold of $770, $772 as the next decision point, $774 as the heaviest overhead concentration and the level bulls really needed, and $776 standing as max upside at the top of the expected move. On the downside, $768 sat right beneath spot as the first level to watch, $767 was flagged as the most important level below and the site of the heaviest battle — having capped price for three consecutive sessions and needing to hold as support — with $764 as the point of last hope and the floor holding the week together, and $761 standing as max downside.

The actual session validated the bullish setup without fully committing to the upper end of the range. SPY opened at $768.50, essentially on top of spot, and held $767 on the low of $767.16 — a clean test of that former resistance-turned-support that confirmed the premarket call on its importance. From there price pushed through the $770 gate and extended to a high of $772.35, tagging between the $771 and $772 targets before settling back. The close at $771.10 for a gain of 0.66% kept price well inside the expected move and above the critical $770 level, suggesting the breakout had legs. The VIX dropping 4.60% to 14.51 added a genuinely constructive read on sentiment, and the session left the tape in a stronger position heading forward with the $767 floor holding cleanly and the upper targets within reach.

Validation of the Analysis
Thursday's session was a near-perfect execution of the premarket roadmap, with SPY adhering to the identified levels from the open bell all the way through the close. The premarket spotted at $768.52 and flagged 768 as the first support beneath spot — SPY opened at $768.50, essentially on top of that level, giving traders an immediate read on where the tape stood. The low of $767.16 dipped just beneath the critical 767 zone, which the analysis described as the most important level below and the battleground that capped price for three consecutive sessions. That test was brief and decisive — price held in the vicinity of 767, exactly as the framework projected it needed to in order to keep the path higher intact.

Once 767 held as support, the analysis laid out a clear sequence: reclaim 770, push toward 771, then set sights on 772 as the next decision point. SPY did exactly that, rallying through 770 and 771 before tagging a high of $772.35 — landing directly inside the 772 target identified as the next meaningful hurdle above. The close at $771.10 confirmed bulls took back and held the key levels the premarket outlined, making 771 the anchor it was projected to be. The 774 level, flagged as the heaviest concentration overhead and a natural stall zone, never came into play, which was consistent with the analysis acknowledging it as the level bulls really need beyond the initial push. The VIX dropping 4.60% to 14.51 reinforced the constructive tone the premarket described. Traders who bought the 767 hold, targeted 771 as the first exit, and let runners work toward 772 had a clean, structured opportunity with the analysis guiding every step.

Looking Ahead
Friday's economic calendar is quiet, with no high-impact releases scheduled to drive a decisive move in either direction. That puts the full weight of the session on price action alone, leaving traders to navigate the tape without a macro anchor. In the absence of hard data to react to, Friday becomes a positioning day where the market either confirms or questions whatever momentum has built through the week.

A quiet close to August doesn't mean a sleepy one. End-of-month flows can introduce their own brand of volatility as funds rebalance and managers dress up portfolios heading into the monthly close. That means the usual technical levels and internals carry extra weight — watch whether buyers step in with conviction or whether the session quietly fades under the pressure of month-end mechanics. A clean calendar gives a strong trend room to run, but it also leaves weak momentum with nowhere to hide.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels
The directional bias today tilts bullish, but with enough caveats to keep you from getting too comfortable. SPY gained 0.66% on below-average volume of 34.02M shares, which means buyers showed up but didn't exactly flood the tape with conviction. The VIX dropping 4.60% to 14.51 is the clearest sign that fear is receding — that's a meaningful move lower in volatility and it adds credibility to the day's gains. The Nasdaq leading the charge at 1.57% while the Dow managed just 0.20% and the Russell 2000 held a modest 0.28% tells you this was a tech-driven rally more than a broad market advance, which is something to keep in mind when assessing durability.

Key resistance sits at $772.35, today's intraday high. A clean break above that level on above-average volume would be a genuine bull signal, opening the door to further upside and potentially shifting sentiment from cautiously optimistic to outright bullish. On the downside, $767.16 — today's low — is the near-term floor to watch. A breakdown below that level would quickly undercut the day's constructive narrative and put the bears back in the driver's seat, likely triggering stops and inviting a faster move lower. Gold tacking on 0.84% to close at $4,637 and Bitcoin climbing 1.29% to close above $80,049 both suggest risk appetite is alive and kicking, which supports the bulls' case. The 10-year Treasury yield sitting at 4.670% remains a real headwind worth respecting — yields at these levels don't give equities much room for error. Bulls need volume to show up and confirm this move. Until that happens, the cautious optimism stays in place.

Expected Price Action
Friday's session brings actionable intelligence generated by our AI model, with SPY projected to trade within a range defined by $761 on the downside and $776 as the max upside target. That fifteen-point window puts this squarely in trending territory, meaning participants should be prepared for a directional move with conviction rather than grinding sideways chop. Thursday's close at $771.10 sits toward the upper half of that projected range, and with the VIX shedding 4.60% to close at 14.51, fear continues to drain out of the market in a meaningful way — all of which tilts the bias bullish heading into Friday's open.

The defining level to watch above is $772, which served as Thursday's session high and where the heaviest overhead concentration sits. A clean push through and hold of $772 opens the door quickly to $774, which the premarket notes flagged as the level where bulls really need to plant their flag and where price is most likely to stall on any extension. Beyond that, $776 caps the expected move at the top of the range and represents max upside. For bulls, the first job Friday morning is converting $772 from resistance to support — do that and the path higher stays wide open. On the downside, $770 is the nearest level worth watching and effectively serves as the near-term gate. Lose $770 and price risks slipping back into the range that defined most of the week. Below there, $767 is the most important defensive line in the range — it held the tape down for multiple sessions before Thursday's breakout, and it now needs to function as support on any pullback. A clean break below $767 would carry real momentum behind it and expose $764 as the next stop, with $761 sitting at the very bottom of the expected move as the floor that defines this week's structure. With fear fading, the tape healing, and Thursday's close well above mid-range, the path of least resistance still favors the upside — but the first clean break of either $772 or $767 will signal which direction Friday intends to run.

Trading Strategy
The VIX dropping 4.60% to 14.51 is a more decisive confirmation that fear is getting priced out of the market in a meaningful way. At 14.51, we're deep in low-volatility territory, and the options market is essentially telling you it sees no imminent threat on the horizon. A drop of that magnitude in the VIX alongside a broad green session suggests sellers are stepping back and the path of least resistance is tilting higher — but that doesn't mean you throw caution out the window. Low VIX readings have a tendency to lull traders into oversizing right before a surprise catalyst resets the tape. Position sizing in the 70-80% range makes sense here — the volatility environment is cooperative, but below-average volume keeps you from going fully loaded. Hold stop-losses in the 0.75-1.0% band from entry and let the market prove itself before committing additional capital.

In a rising market scenario, bulls are in decent shape after closing at $771.10 with a constructive finish near the session's upper range. The preferred long entry is a measured morning dip into the $768-$768.50 zone, which aligns with the prior open and represents natural intraday support. The initial profit target is $773, with a stretch target at $775-$776 if buyers can generate real volume expansion and sustain the momentum from the prior session's strength. Stops on longs belong below $767.16 — the day's established low — to avoid getting caught in a false breakout scenario. Only add aggressively to long exposure once price clears $772.35 with volume backing the move, not just a quiet drift above resistance.

In a falling market scenario, the first line of defense is $767.16. A clean breakdown below that level on accelerating selling pressure opens a short entry targeting $764 as the primary profit destination, with $761-$762 as the secondary target if sellers gain real traction and volume starts building. Stops on shorts belong above $772 to keep risk well-defined and avoid getting run over by a quick squeeze. If the market opens soft and rolls straight through $767.16 without a recovery forming, treat that as your trigger to initiate shorts with measured size. Cover into support levels methodically and don't let the calm 14.51 VIX reading breed complacency — suppressed volatility has a habit of snapping hard when sentiment shifts, and a quiet tape can move fast once direction is established.

Model’s Projected Range
SPY's projected maximum range for Friday is $764 to $777, with the Call side dominating in an expanding band that suggests trending price action with intermittent chop. Friday brings no economic news due out so the market will trade on technicals. SPY had a solid session, opening at $768.50, dipping to a low of $767.16 before pushing to a high of $772.35 and closing at $771.10, up 0.66% on volume that came in lower than average — a quiet but constructive grind higher. SPY is trading near our model's first support at $770, with ongoing trade policy uncertainty continuing to serve as a macro backdrop worth watching. On the upside, if SPY clears our model's first resistance at $775, the next target becomes $777, while on the downside, a break below $770 opens the door to $765, and if that gives way, there is little to keep price from falling toward the $763 area. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 with SPY well above structural support. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $775, $777, $780, $785, while support rests at $770, $765, $764, $763. Given Friday's close near the lower end of the projected range, we favor buying dips at $770 rather than chasing strength into resistance. Bitcoin closed up 1.29% above $80,049 and the MAG names were mostly green led by NVIDIA's impressive 8.74% surge, though Amazon weighed on the group with a loss of 1.54% — overall, the leadership picture leans constructive and supports the broader rally thesis heading into the weekend. The VIX closed at 14.51, down 4.60%, suggesting fear continues to ease as the market steadies near all-time high territory. SPY closed just above the lower line of the uptrend channel, with structural support holding in the $770 area and the broader trend still pointing higher.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended in a Bullish Trending Market State with SPY closing at $771.10. MSI support sits at $770.17 and resistance at $772.25, and since SPY closed inside that range, those levels remain intact heading into Friday. Extended targets were not printing at the close, though they did print above during both the AM session and PM session, giving traders a clear read on where bullish momentum lived earlier in the day. The premarket also showed extended targets printing above near the $771.50 area, which telegraphed early upside intent before the regular session even opened. The MSI did not rescale overnight and held its bullish state without extended targets above coming into Thursday's open. SPY initially traded sideways but quickly found footing at MSI support and pushed up toward MSI resistance, which was a clean and familiar setup for experienced MSI users who know the odds of completing that move from support to resistance on the long side are better than 70%. Extended targets began printing above in the AM session, and SPY pressed higher as the MSI rescaled higher several times into a wide Bullish Trending configuration. That momentum, however, did not sustain. Extended targets stopped printing, and with SPY sitting at MSI resistance, sellers took control and pushed price back down to MSI support, which held and allowed SPY to bounce back into the close. The session ended in a moderate Bullish Trending state with a spread of $2.08, which reflects a market that has some room but not enough thrust to signal an aggressive trend continuation. With no extended targets printing at the close, the MSI is forecasting a slow grind higher for Friday, though without that overhead confirmation the move may be modest and is likely to find resistance at key levels above. MSI support is $770.17 with resistance at $772.25.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
Thursday we stated, "Bulls want to see overnight price hold above $766.44 and the MSI maintain or strengthen its Bullish Trending state, which would open the door to testing $767.27 above and potentially pressing higher still if extended targets continue printing above into Thursday's session," and added, "If the MSI confirms that structure overnight and $766.44 holds as support, buying dips toward that level and targeting $767.27 and above becomes the preferred approach for Thursday," while also noting, "A Ranging state at Thursday's open is entirely plausible given how compressed the close was, and in that environment failed breakouts above $767.27 and failed breakdowns below $766.44 offer the highest-probability setups." That framework gave traders a reliable foundation heading into what ultimately became a session with a clear directional arc, even if that arc had a twist late in the day.
The MSI held its bullish structure overnight without extended targets above, keeping the overnight tape stable and giving bulls a clean starting point. Extended targets were visible above near $771.50 in the premarket, giving traders early awareness that upside pressure was building before the open. Once the regular session began, SPY opened at $768.50 and initially drifted sideways before finding its footing right at MSI support. That level held cleanly and SPY made its move toward MSI resistance, a textbook long setup that the MSI framework identifies with consistent reliability. Extended targets began printing above in the AM session, which confirmed the bullish momentum and pushed SPY toward the session high of $772.35 as the MSI rescaled higher several times into a wide Bullish Trending configuration. The setup was clean and the follow-through was strong during that window. Then the picture changed. Extended targets stopped printing above, and with SPY pressing against MSI resistance and no overhead confirmation left, sellers stepped in and faded the move. SPY pulled back from the highs and dropped toward MSI support, which came in at $770.17 and held. That bounce carried price back up into the close, finishing the session at $771.10, up 0.66% on volume of 34.02 million shares, which came in below average and reflects a market that rallied but did not attract broad participation. The VIX dropped 4.60% to 14.51, signaling continued easing of anxiety even as the tape faded from its highs. At minimum it was a 2-for-2 session for traders following the framework. It was an easy day to read and execute with substantial setups, all identified through proper context, patience, and flexibility while leveraging the MSI, premarket levels, and market structure rather than forcing trades. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Friday has light economic news so the market is likely to grind higher given the Bullish Trending state at the close, though the move may be modest since extended targets were not printing at the close and price is likely to find resistance at key levels above. The MSI is closing with a moderate spread of $2.08, which gives Friday's session more room to work with than a compressed close would, but without extended targets confirming overhead conviction, any push toward resistance should be treated carefully rather than chased. The bulls have done enough work to keep the structure intact, and the MSI is leaning toward continuation, but the absence of extended targets at the close is a meaningful distinction that tempers the enthusiasm for an aggressive long bias heading in.
Bulls want to see overnight price hold above $770.17 and the MSI maintain or strengthen its Bullish Trending state, which would open the door to testing $772.25 above and potentially pressing beyond that level if extended targets begin printing above during Friday's session. If the MSI confirms that structure overnight and $770.17 holds as support, buying dips toward that level and targeting $772.25 and above becomes the preferred approach for Friday. Bears, on the other hand, want to see $770.17 fail overnight, which would put pressure on Thursday's session low at $767.16 and open the door to lower levels beneath the current range. Any failure of $770.17 as support is likely to see SPY retest the day's lows quickly, so that level deserves close attention at the open.
The most actionable setup in a moderate Bullish Trending MSI without extended targets at the close is to let the MSI confirm its state overnight before committing to a direction. If the MSI holds or rescales higher overnight and $770.17 supports price, buying dips toward that level and targeting $772.25 is the preferred trade for Friday. If instead the MSI rescales lower and $770.17 fails at the open, selling any rally back toward that level and targeting Thursday's session lows becomes the cleaner setup. A Ranging state at Friday's open is entirely plausible if overnight price action is indecisive, and in that environment failed breakouts above $772.25 and failed breakdowns below $770.17 offer the highest-probability setups. The bulls are likely to maintain pressure to the upside, but the lack of extended targets at the close means that pressure may need a fresh catalyst to push meaningfully beyond $772.25 and sustain any breakout above it.
The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 and failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups. Remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States unless a clear failed breakout or breakdown presents itself, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven't yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Dealers are selling SPY $774 to $790 and higher strike Calls, while buying $772 to $773 Calls, indicating the Dealers' desire to participate in any rally on Friday. The ceiling for Friday appears to be $776. Notably, Dealers are selling ATM Puts in large size at $769 to $771, and Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $769. This signals real conviction that prices will continue to rise Friday. To the downside, Dealers are buying $768 to $710 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying measured concern that prices could move lower, though their reduced hedges imply growing upside conviction. Below $765 is bearish and above $766 is bullish. Should SPY fail to hold $763, $760 is in play, while above $770 there is a wall of resistance to $775 which will slow any ascent. Dealer positioning is unchanged at bullish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $772 to $805 and higher strike Calls, indicating the Dealers' desire to participate in any rally into next Friday. The ceiling for next Friday appears to be $785. Dealers are no longer selling ATM Puts broadly but are selling well out-of-the-money Puts at $756 to $763, and Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $756, implying that even if prices pull back, they don't expect the decline to go far. To the downside, Dealers are buying $771 to $655 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying significant hedging despite their bullish lean into the end of next week. Remain bullish above $766, but below $765 the posture shifts bearish. Dealers are positioned for a continuation of the current rally anticipating further upside into next week. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged at bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders
With SPY closing at $771.10 and VIX cooling to 14.51, the bias favors longs — look to buy dips toward $768 with stops below $767.16, and target a push toward $772-$773. Flip defensive on any break under $767.

Keep position sizes measured given the below-average volume and watch the 10-year yield at 4.670 — any spike toward 4.8% changes the equation fast. Review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET for any changes in the model's outlook and Dealer Positioning.

Good luck and good trading!