Market Insights: Thursday, August 13th, 2026

Market Overview
US stocks climbed Thursday as the S&P 500 posted a fresh record high, lifted by a second straight tame inflation reading and a busy batch of earnings reports. The S&P 500 gained roughly 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.8%, and the Dow edged up 0.1%. The Producer Price Index showed prices rising less than expected, building on Wednesday's encouraging CPI data and further cooling bets that the Fed will hike rates in September. That said, most Fed watchers still expect at least one rate hike before year-end, and the cooler prints alone probably aren't enough to end the debate among policymakers. On the labor front, initial jobless claims ticked up week over week while continuing claims fell — a mixed but relatively calm read following last week's surprisingly weak jobs report.

Earnings were a mixed bag on the AI front. Cisco and Cerebras both tanked after reporting results, while chipmaking equipment giant Applied Materials — which has surged a whopping 190% over the past year — reported after the close. Oil prices pulled back Thursday as President Trump shifted from active military pressure toward economic pressure near the Strait of Hormuz, with the administration claiming "total control" over the waterway and disputing private data showing reduced shipping traffic there.

SPY Performance
SPY opened at $774.87 and this time buyers actually showed up with a little more purpose. Price pushed higher through the session, tagging a high of $779.37 before pulling back slightly into the close at $777.82. Unlike the prior session where the high was essentially the open, today's range had some meat to it — a spread of $4.50 from low to high — which signals at least some willingness from bulls to press the advantage. The low of $774.11 came in just below the open, meaning the early dip was shallow and brief, and the market spent the bulk of the day trading above where it started. That's a healthier tape than what we saw yesterday.

SPY finished up 0.69% on the day, nearly triple the prior session's gain, and the price action backed up that number in a more convincing way. The close near the upper half of the range suggests buyers maintained control through the afternoon rather than fading into the bell. Volume came in at 30.26 million shares, still below average, so participation remains a question mark even as price pushes higher. The VIX ticked up 0.62% to close at 14.64, a modest rise that isn't alarming but does suggest the market isn't entirely complacent with SPY making new near-term highs. Overall, today's session was a step in the right direction — better range, better close, better gain — but the below-average volume means the move still needs to be confirmed with broader participation before the bulls can really start pounding the table.

Major Indices Performance
The Nasdaq led the pack on the day, finishing up 0.81% in a session where growth and tech names found solid footing. The Magnificent Seven were broadly in the green, and that kind of tailwind from the heaviest-weighted names in the index tends to do a lot of the lifting. When the big dogs are running, the Nasdaq usually follows, and that's exactly what played out here.

The Russell 2000 came in second, adding 0.26% — a more modest showing than yesterday's lead performance, but still positive. Small-caps holding onto gains for a second straight session is worth monitoring. It's not a breakout moment yet, but the continued participation from the domestically focused, rate-sensitive corners of the market does suggest the bulls haven't completely lost the plot on risk appetite.

The Dow brought up the rear with a gain of just 0.13%, which is about as quiet as a positive session gets. Blue-chip industrials didn't have much to work with today — the energy drag from a significant crude oil selloff weighed on related names, and value stocks in general just couldn't generate any real momentum. The S&P 500 also finished in the green, consistent with a tape that leaned positive but without a ton of broad conviction. Overall, it was a day where growth clearly outpaced value, the Nasdaq carried the load, and the Dow was more or less along for the ride.

Notable Stock Movements
Tesla grabbed the spotlight as the biggest mover among the Magnificent Seven today, surging as much as 3.80% in a session that gave the group a very different feel compared to the prior day's choppy, mostly red showing. That kind of move from Tesla tends to energize the entire cohort — it's a name that carries outsized emotional weight with both retail and institutional traders, and when it runs, it has a way of pulling sentiment along with it. A gain of that size signals renewed appetite for the higher-beta names in this group, which is exactly the kind of participation the bulls needed to see after the prior session's lackluster showing from mega-cap tech.

The broader Magnificent Seven performance shifted meaningfully to the green, with the group mostly moving in the right direction and reinforcing the constructive tone across the major averages. The lone holdout was Amazon, which slipped as much as -0.80% and stood out as the only real weak spot in an otherwise encouraging session for the cohort. One red name against a field of green is a far healthier picture than what traders had to work with the day before, and it suggests the heavy selling pressure that had been leaning on these names is starting to ease.

The turnaround in the Magnificent Seven carries real weight for broader market sentiment because this group had been the source of friction in recent sessions rather than a source of leadership. Seeing them re-engage on the upside alongside a positive tape gives the rally more credibility. With the VIX edging only marginally higher by 0.62% to 14.64, there's no fear creeping back in, and a mostly green Magnificent Seven adds genuine depth to what was already a decent day across the major averages.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil pulled back 2.49% to settle at $81.20, giving up some ground after a strong recent run, but the bigger picture hasn't changed much. Prices remain well above where most models expected them to be, and despite today's dip, the commodity continues to defy gravity in the low $80s. Supply dynamics and persistent global demand are still providing a floor, and energy costs at these levels keep inflation's path lower more complicated than the Fed would like. If crude finds its footing and holds above $70 on any subsequent weakness, it remains a variable that policymakers simply can't ignore.

Gold dipped a marginal 0.10% to close at $4,405, which is essentially a rounding error after the relentless advance this metal has been on. A tiny pullback like this after the kind of record-setting pace gold has maintained is completely normal and looks more like a brief pause than any sign of exhaustion. Central bank demand, inflation concerns, and broader macro uncertainty continue to underpin the bull case, and nothing about today's session changes the underlying picture.

Bitcoin also slipped 0.10%, closing just above $63,337, essentially mimicking gold's quiet session. The $63,000 zone continues to hold as a reliable support area, and this type of minimal drift lower is classic consolidation behavior. The broader structure remains intact, and as long as buyers keep showing up near these levels, there's no reason to read anything alarming into today's modest move.

Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield finally showed some meaningful movement today, dropping 0.88% to close at 4.640%. That's the most decisive single-day decline we've seen in this recent stretch, and while it's a welcome development, it doesn't change the bigger picture all that much. Yields are still parked well above the 4.5% threshold where equity valuations start feeling real pressure, and the relief is measured in basis points, not in a genuine trend reversal.

At 4.640%, the yield now sits 14 basis points above that critical 4.5% line — down from 18 basis points yesterday, but still uncomfortable territory. The gap to 4.8% has widened slightly to 16 basis points, which gives the market a little more breathing room than it had, but that cushion can shrink fast if inflation data or a hawkish Fed comment hits the tape. Today's move is encouraging, but one session doesn't make a trend, especially when yields have been stubbornly elevated for weeks.

What this decline does tell you is that there's at least some demand returning to the bond market, likely tied to today's modest risk-on tone across equities. The two can reinforce each other, and if yields continue drifting lower with conviction, the pressure on stock valuations could ease meaningfully. But the levels to watch remain unchanged. A close back above 4.8% is where selling accelerates under this framework, 5% is where things get genuinely ugly, and 5.2% is where a 20%-plus correction becomes a real conversation worth having. Today's pullback is a step in the right direction — but only that. One good day in the bond market still needs several more to follow before yields stop being the dominant headwind for stocks.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Thursday's forecast called for SPY to trade within a seventeen-point range, with $765 marking the max downside and $782 serving as the upside ceiling. The bias heading into the session was modestly bearish, driven by Wednesday's close at $772.47 sitting in the lower half of the projected range. That said, the VIX dropping to 14.42 kept the outlook from turning outright negative, suggesting fear was fading enough to prevent any serious waterfall selling.

The $775 level was identified as the defining battleground for the session — the level that would either flip the tone bullish or confirm the bears remained in control. A reclaim of $775 with conviction was expected to open the door toward $776, then $778, with $779 as the top of the expected move and $782 as max upside on a full breakout. On the downside, $773 was the first line of defense, with $772 flagged as the critical level where selling could accelerate and the tape would get thin fast. Below that, $770 and $769 were the next real floors, with $765 as the ultimate support where major buying interest was expected to step in.

The trading strategy leaned on position sizing in the 80-90% range with stops in the 1.0-1.25% zone, treating volume as the deciding vote before adding size. The bear case called for shorting a clean breakdown below $771 targeting $768-769, with stops above $774. The bull case centered on defending $771 as an intraday floor and pushing through $774.87 to target $777-778 on follow-through, with stops below $769. In both directions, the strategy emphasized patience — waiting for clean price action at key levels and letting volume confirm before committing size.

Market Performance vs. Forecast
Thursday's session opened at $774.87, landing directly on the level the forecast had identified as today's high from the prior session — a precise alignment that immediately confirmed the model's structural read on where the tape was beginning its directional decision. That open sat right at the $774-$775 battleground the framework designated as the defining gate for the day, and rather than stalling at that ceiling as Wednesday's session had done repeatedly, Thursday's tape showed a different character entirely. Price pushed through with conviction, validating the bull scenario the forecast outlined and triggering the rising market playbook the model had constructed in advance.

The session ran to a high of $779.37, closing at $777.82 on a gain of 0.69% — a move that tracked almost perfectly through the upside architecture the model had mapped. The forecast identified $776, $778, and $779 as sequential resistance targets in the bull case, and Thursday's price action respected that exact staircase, with the session finding its ceiling right at the top of the expected move zone before settling comfortably within the projected range. The $777-$778 profit zone the forecast highlighted as the meaningful destination for any breakout above $774.87 became the gravitational center of Thursday's close — the kind of precision that reflects the framework's ability to identify where supply and demand concentrate before the session begins. Volume came in at 30.26 million shares, remaining below average, which the model had flagged as a condition requiring confirmation before adding size — disciplined traders who waited for clean price action at defined levels were well-rewarded without needing to chase. The VIX edged up 0.62% to 14.64, a negligible move that kept volatility squarely in the low-fear territory the forecast associated with a grind-higher tape. The framework's directional bias, key levels, and upside targets all proved operative Thursday, and that structural consistency is exactly what makes the model a reliable edge session after session.

Premarket Analysis Summary
The premarket analysis posted at market open identified SPY spot at $774.13 in a call-dominated environment, with price coiled in a tight range just under resistance all week. The expected move had compressed to just five points, keeping the session setup contained unless one side forced a resolution. The critical gate above was $775 — flagged as the defining breakout trigger that bulls needed to clear to unlock $777, $779 as the expected move top, and $780 leading to $782 as the max upside. On the downside, $773 was the first level to watch, $772 was identified as the most important level below and where the heaviest battle would occur, with a clean break there expected to open the door lower. Below $772, $771 and $770 were the next layers of support, with $769 marked as the max downside at the bottom of the expected move. The bias leaned toward containment, with a sharp directional move expected once the coil finally resolved.

The actual session resolved cleanly to the upside, with buyers forcing the issue early. SPY opened at $774.87, held above the $773 first defense line without any real threat, and pushed through the $775 gate that had capped price all week. From there the tape followed the upside roadmap, tagging a high of $779.37 — essentially printing the expected move top of $779 to the tick. The close at $777.82 represented a gain of 0.69% and left price well inside the upper half of the target structure. Volume came in at 30.26 million shares, below average but enough to power the breakout. The VIX rising 0.62% to 14.64 despite a positive session is a modest tell worth watching, though the clean reclaim of $775 and the tag of $779 marks a clear win for the bulls and flips the near-term posture back in their favor.

Validation of the Analysis
Thursday's session delivered a textbook validation of the premarket framework, with SPY tracking the mapped levels cleanly from open to close and giving traders multiple well-defined opportunities throughout the day. The analysis identified 775 as the defining gate — the level bulls needed to clear to confirm a breakout from the coil that had kept price pinned all week. SPY opened at $774.87, pushed through 775 early, and never looked back, doing exactly what the premarket said a clean break of that trigger would do. Once 775 flipped to support, the next target was 777, where the analysis flagged heavy interest sitting above — SPY drove directly into that zone and extended through it on the way to a high of $779.37, tagging the 779 level identified as the expected move top with near-perfect precision.

The close at $777.82 settled right in the middle of the framework's upside range, between 777 and 779 — two levels the premarket specifically called out as the primary targets above once 775 gave way. Traders who had the breakout above 775 circled as their long trigger had a clean entry with 773 as a defined risk level and a straight shot to 777 and 779 as the roadmap. The full upside range played out almost exactly as written, with price respecting every checkpoint in sequence. The 780 and 782 levels were left as the stretch targets and SPY stopped just short, which is consistent with a session that stayed within the expected move rather than forcing an extension. The VIX ticking up 0.62% to 14.64 in the face of a strong day tells you this wasn't a panic-driven rip — it was a controlled, methodical move through levels the framework had mapped hours before the open, confirming once again the real-time value of having these price targets in hand before the first trade is made.

Looking Ahead
With Friday's economic calendar coming in quiet — no high-impact releases on the docket — traders get a relatively clean session to close out the week. After absorbing both CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, the market will have had time to digest the full inflation picture, and Friday becomes less about reacting to fresh data and more about how positioning shakes out into the weekend close. That's actually useful information on its own — price action on a quiet Friday often reveals whether the move from earlier in the week has real conviction behind it or was just a knee-jerk reaction to the numbers.

Use the session to reassess your levels, trim or add exposure based on how the week's inflation data ultimately landed, and pay attention to whether volume supports or fades any directional move. Heading into the close without a catalyst on deck, the tape tends to tell you a lot about where the bigger players want to be over the weekend.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels
The directional bias today leans modestly bullish, but the conviction isn't exactly overwhelming. SPY tacked on 0.69% and closed near the upper half of its range, which is constructive on the surface, but below-average volume of 30.26 million shares keeps the enthusiasm in check. Gains built on thin participation have a habit of fading quickly, and that's the key caveat here. The Nasdaq's 0.81% advance led the major indices and shows that growth-oriented money is still willing to show up, even if the broader market isn't firing on all cylinders. The Dow's modest 0.13% gain and the Russell 2000's 0.26% move suggest small-caps and value aren't exactly chasing this rally. The wrinkle in today's sentiment picture is the VIX, which rose 0.62% to 14.64 — a small but notable uptick that tells you the options market is quietly hedging even as price moved higher. That divergence between price gains and a rising VIX is worth watching carefully.

Key resistance sits at $779.37, today's intraday high, which was tagged but not convincingly cleared. A sustained push above that level on volume that breaks above the average would open the door toward the $782 to $784 zone and signal that the bulls are genuinely in control. On the downside, $774.11 marks the session low and the first meaningful support. A decisive break below that print, especially on expanding volume, would flip the short-term structure bearish and put the $771 area in play quickly. Gold dipping slightly and crude oil dropping 2.49% to $81.20 removes some inflationary pressure from the macro picture, which is a quiet positive for equities. Yields easing slightly are also a mild tailwind. The bulls hold a marginal edge here, but this market still needs real follow-through volume to confirm the move is more than just drift.

Expected Price Action
Friday's session brings actionable intelligence generated by our AI model, with SPY projected to trade within a range defined by $769 on the downside and $782 as the max upside target. That thirteen-point window clears the consolidation threshold, meaning Friday is set up for directional movement rather than choppy sideways action. With Thursday's close at $777.82 sitting in the upper half of the projected range, bulls hold a structural edge heading into the session, and the VIX ticking up 0.62% to 14.64 is a minor caution flag but not enough to derail the bullish tone.

The $779 level is the immediate ceiling to watch — that's where the premarket model places heavy interest, and clearing it with conviction opens the door to $780 and then $782 as max upside. Bulls who can push through $779 and hold it on a retest have done their job. On the downside, $777 becomes the first line of defense, and losing it cleanly would hand early momentum back to the sellers and bring $775 into focus as the critical battleground. That level has been the defining gate all week, so a break below $775 with conviction would be a meaningful shift in tone, opening $773 next, then $772 where sellers can accelerate and the tape gets thin. Below $772, $770 is the next real floor, and a failure there exposes $769 as max downside where buyers should finally step in with force. Bias is bullish given where Thursday closed within the range, but the key test is whether buyers can finally clear $779 and push toward $782, or whether sellers show up and drag price back into the middle of the range. Watch $779 on the upside and $775 on the downside — those two levels decide Friday's direction.

Trading Strategy
The VIX ticking up 0.62% to 14.64 is a minor but worth-noting shift — not enough to signal real fear entering the market, but a reminder that complacency isn't quite as deep as it was a session ago. At 14.64, the volatility index remains in low-territory that broadly favors the bulls, but the slight uptick alongside below-average volume today keeps traders on alert for a potential change in tone. Thin participation can mask underlying weakness, and with the VIX nudging higher rather than fading, don't get overly aggressive chasing strength. Keep position sizing in the 80-90% range and maintain stop-losses in the 1.0-1.25% range from entry. Let price confirm your thesis before adding size.

In a falling market scenario, the first critical level to watch is $774.11, today's low, which serves as the immediate near-term floor. A failure to hold $774 on a retest with meaningful pickup in selling pressure opens a short entry targeting $771-772, with stops placed above $777 to protect against a swift reversal. If sellers extend the breakdown below $771 with follow-through momentum, the next logical support zone sits around $768-769, where a second profit target becomes available for those managing a trailing stop. Don't press shorts without clear confirmation — at 14.64, the VIX is still not pricing in the kind of fear that fuels sustained downside moves, and the tape can snap back hard at these volatility levels.

In a rising market scenario, bulls need to defend $774-774.11 as an intraday floor and then push convincingly through $779.37, today's session high, to unlock a move toward $782-783 as the next meaningful profit zone. The more conservative long entry is a shallow pullback toward $775-776 that stabilizes with visible buying interest, targeting $779 as the first profit area and $782-783 on continued follow-through. Stops on longs belong below $772 to guard against a deeper breakdown. With the VIX at 14.64 and still historically subdued, the path of least resistance remains tilted toward the upside — but wait for clean price action at defined levels and let volume confirm the move before sizing up.

Model’s Projected Range
SPY's projected maximum range for Friday is $773 to $783, with the Put side dominating in an expanding band that suggests trending price action with intermittent chop. Friday brings no economic news due out so the market will trade on technicals. SPY closed at $777.82, up 0.69% on the session, trading in a tight but decisive range with an open at $774.87, a low of $774.11, and a high of $779.37 before settling near session highs — a constructive close that keeps bulls in control. SPY remains in the $775 to $780 range that has defined recent trading, with broader macro sentiment continuing to be shaped by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and trade policy headlines keeping traders on edge. If our model's first resistance at $780 breaks, price targets $783 next, while a failure at first support of $775 opens the door toward $773, and if that level gives way there is little to keep price from falling toward $770. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 with SPY well above structural support. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $780, $783, $785, $786, while support rests at $775, $773, $770, $765. We favor shorting rallies near $780 given SPY's close just below that key model resistance level. MAG stocks had a mostly green day led by Tesla surging up to 3.80%, though Amazon was the notable laggard sliding as much as -0.80%, making it a mixed picture for the leadership group overall — strength in Tesla is a positive signal but sustained participation from the full MAG basket would be needed to confirm a broader breakout. Bitcoin slipped just -0.10% to close above $63,337, essentially holding its ground and offering no meaningful drag on risk sentiment. The VIX closed at 14.64, up 0.62%, suggesting elevated fear given that volatility ticked higher even as SPY gained on the day — a divergence worth watching heading into the weekend. SPY closed in the upper half of the trend channel, with structural support sitting near $775 keeping the short-term uptrend technically intact.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended in a Bullish Trending Market State with SPY closing at $777.82. Since SPY closed inside the MSI range, support remains support and resistance remains resistance heading into Friday, with MSI support at $776.86 and MSI resistance at $779.25. Extended targets were not printing at the close, though they did print above during premarket and the AM session. The MSI rescaled higher overnight several times, widening its bullish state, and extended targets continued printing above right into the open, which helped fuel a push to a new all-time high before ultimately stalling and failing at resistance. The MSI then rescaled to a very wide Bullish Trending state and held that condition for most of the session, with only a brief period of a Ranging state interrupting the broader bullish structure. The MSI width is moderate at a $2.39 spread, which reflects a market with enough room to move but not one that is running away to the upside with conviction. Buying MSI support from below and fading MSI resistance once extended targets stopped printing were the standout trades of the day. A cooler than expected PPI report gave the bulls the catalyst they needed, sending SPY ripping to new highs, and while QQQ still has a bit further to go to match that achievement, another new high there looks highly probable. With the MSI in a moderate Bullish Trending state at the close but without extended targets, the most likely setup heading into Friday is another test of MSI resistance that may initially fail before enough liquidity builds up for a more meaningful push higher. The $800 level is clearly in the market's sights and remains only a matter of time away, absent an external catalyst. The forecast for Friday is a slow grind higher, though without extended targets at the close the move may be modest and is likely to find resistance at key levels above. MSI support is $776.86 with resistance at $779.25.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
Wednesday we stated, "Bulls want to see overnight price hold $771.83 as support and the MSI rescale higher with extended targets printing above," and added, "Bears want to see $771.83 fail and the MSI rescale lower with extended targets printing below. If that occurs, SPY is likely to retest Wednesday's low at $771.29 and press toward lower levels beneath the session range," while also noting, "Do not anticipate — let the PPI reaction settle and wait for the MSI to confirm its state before committing to either side." That framework played out with precision on Thursday, and the bulls delivered emphatically with the help of a softer than expected PPI print. The MSI rescaled higher overnight several times into a Bullish Trending state with extended targets printing above, and price spiked sharply right into the open, tagging a new all-time high at $779.37 before stalling and reversing. Once extended targets stopped printing during the AM session, SPY rolled back and the MSI rescaled into a very wide Bullish Trending state that would define the character of the rest of the session.
From the AM session onward, the primary setups the MSI framework offered were buying dips to MSI support and fading rallies to MSI resistance once extended targets were no longer backing the move. A brief Ranging state interrupted the bullish structure at one point during the session, but the wide Bullish Trending state reasserted itself and price continued to respect the boundaries with enough regularity to generate clean setups for disciplined traders. SPY opened at $774.87, traded a high of $779.37, a low of $774.11, and closed at $777.82, up 0.69% on volume of 30.26 million shares, which came in below average. The VIX rose 0.62% to 14.64. At minimum it was a 2-for-2 session for traders following the framework. It was an easy day to read albeit not an easy day to trade given the wide swings and the brief Ranging state that interrupted the trending structure. But substantial setups were present, all identified through proper context, patience, and flexibility while leveraging the MSI, premarket levels, and market structure rather than forcing trades. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Friday has light economic news so the market is likely to grind higher given the Bullish Trending state at the close, though the move may be modest. There are no high-impact catalysts on the calendar to force a directional decision, which means the MSI's behavior overnight and at the open will be the most important guide for how the session unfolds. Without a data-driven spark, extended targets are less likely to appear early, and any move toward new highs could be a slow, methodical grind rather than a sharp spike.
Given the moderate Bullish Trending close, Friday is likely to see continued upward pressure, but the absence of extended targets at the close suggests that the first test of MSI resistance at $779.25 may fail before enough buying pressure accumulates to push through cleanly. A second test of $779.25 could very well absorb enough liquidity to fuel a breakout and set the stage for a run toward $800, which remains firmly in the market's crosshairs. The moderate MSI width signals that bulls still have an edge heading in, but this is not a runaway tape and patience remains essential. Bulls want to see overnight price hold $776.86 as support and the MSI rescale higher with extended targets printing above. If that happens, the door opens for another attempt at $779.25 and ultimately a push toward new all-time highs above that level. Bears want to see $776.86 fail and the MSI rescale lower with extended targets printing below. If that occurs, SPY is likely to retest Thursday's low at $774.11 and press toward lower levels beneath the session range.
The most actionable setup in a moderate Bullish Trending MSI without extended targets is to buy dips to $776.86 if it holds as support, targeting a move back toward $779.25 and higher, or to fade a rally to $779.25 if extended targets are not printing above, targeting $776.86 and the levels below. Trade the rejection at resistance until the MSI confirms a trending push with extended targets to back it up. A Ranging state at the open is possible given the lack of extended targets at Thursday's close, and in that environment the highest-probability plays remain failed breakouts above $779.25 and failed breakdowns below $776.86. Let the MSI confirm its state before committing to either side.
The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 and failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups. Remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States unless a clear failed breakout or breakdown presents itself, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven't yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Dealers are selling SPY $778 to $800 and higher strike Calls, indicating the Dealers' belief that prices may struggle to push meaningfully higher without a clear catalyst. The ceiling for Friday appears to be $780 to $788. Notably, Dealers are selling ATM Puts at $775 in large size, which tells us they believe higher prices are in store for Friday. Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $775. Dealers have also lightened up on their hedges, signaling growing confidence in the near-term direction. To the downside, Dealers are buying $777 to $730 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying moderate concern that prices could move lower. For Friday, below $775 is bearish and above $780 is bullish, with nothing but chop in between. There is heavy resistance at $780 and $788, while support at $775 will slow any decline. Dealer positioning is unchanged at bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $778 to $825 and higher strike Calls, indicating the Dealers' belief that prices may struggle to push meaningfully higher without a clear catalyst. The ceiling for next week appears to be $785. Dealers are also selling Puts at $775, and Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $775. To the downside, Dealers are buying $777 to $700 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying heightened concern that prices could move lower. Dealers remained hedged but have not increased their protection heading into the week. Earnings season is coming to a close and economic data points are now driving the market, with an external catalyst like an end to the war in the Middle East also capable of moving prices sharply. We recommend traders remain bullish above $780 but below $770 remain bearish, with heavy chop in between. There is major support at $770 with major resistance at $780, which will slow any ascent above these levels. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged at bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders
With SPY closing at $777.82 and the VIX ticking up 0.62% to 14.64, the tape remains constructive but don't get complacent. Favor longs above $777 with stops below $774, and look to take partial profits near $779–$780. Below $774.11, short-term momentum shifts bearish and you'll want to step aside.

Keep size in check on a below-average volume day — moves can reverse quickly without institutional conviction behind them. Review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET for any updates to the model's outlook and Dealer Positioning.

Good luck and good trading!