Market Insights: Tuesday, July 7th, 2026

Market Overview
Stocks pulled back Tuesday as the semiconductor sector came under pressure from two separate headlines. Samsung reported a staggering 19-fold jump in Q2 operating profit thanks to AI-driven demand, but investors fixated on concerns about its AI spending plans and future demand outlook — sending the stock lower despite the record results. On top of that, Reuters reported that Chinese startup DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip, putting it in direct competition with Nvidia and reigniting fears about the durability of the AI trade. The Dow slipped 0.2% after the prior session's record close above 53,000, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.5% and the Nasdaq took the hardest hit, falling 1.2%.

Oil was the one area that moved sharply higher, with Brent crude surging above $75 per barrel and WTI climbing to $71 after reports of Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. That's a notable reversal from Monday, when oil barely reacted to the OPEC+ output increase and the waterway's gradual reopening under a fragile US-Iran peace deal. The renewed tension in that critical shipping lane added a fresh layer of uncertainty to an already choppy market session.

SPY Performance
SPY opened at $750.22 and couldn't hold its footing from the start. Unlike the clean, one-directional push from the prior session, today's tape had a heavier feel, with sellers gradually taking control and grinding price lower through the day. The high of $750.96 came early, and once that ceiling was established, buyers had very little to show for their effort. The low of $745.21 marked the real damage, and the fact that price couldn't recover meaningfully from that level tells you where the conviction lived today — it lived on the sell side.

SPY closed at $747.62, a loss of 0.49%, giving back a good chunk of yesterday's hard-won gains and putting the bulls back on defense after what looked like a promising momentum shift. Volume came in at 40.10 million shares, near average, so this wasn't a low-conviction drift lower — there was enough participation to take the pullback seriously. The VIX jumped 4.05% to 16.20, reversing yesterday's compression and reminding the market that fear doesn't just disappear because it had a few quiet days. When volatility pops and price closes in the lower portion of the day's range, it's a signal worth respecting. The path of least resistance that looked so clean yesterday is now a little less obvious, and the bulls will need to step up quickly to keep this from turning into something more than a one-day stumble.

Major Indices Performance
The Nasdaq took the biggest hit on the session, dropping 1.16% as the growth and tech leadership that had been building in recent sessions ran into a wall of selling pressure. The reversal was sharp enough to suggest this wasn't just routine profit-taking — when the Nasdaq gives back ground at this pace, it typically signals that risk appetite is cooling and traders are reassessing their near-term positioning. The same momentum names that had been driving the rally found fewer buyers willing to step up today.

The Russell 2000 wasn't far behind in the damage column, sliding 0.79% and reminding investors that small-caps remain vulnerable when sentiment shifts. Small-caps had just started to show some encouraging signs of participation in the broader rally, so giving that back quickly is a setback for market breadth. These names tend to be more sensitive to macro uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, and today's action reflected that fragility.

The Dow held up the best of the group, pulling back just 0.25% as blue-chip, value-oriented names absorbed the selling pressure better than their growth counterparts. That's somewhat of a role reversal from yesterday's dynamic, where defensives were getting left behind. The S&P 500 also finished in the red, confirming that today's weakness was broadly distributed rather than isolated to one pocket of the market. The rotation story has flipped quickly — one session after growth was reclaiming the wheel, the sellers showed up and handed it right back to the more defensive side of the ledger.

Notable Stock Movements
Meta stepped into the spotlight today, climbing as much as 2.55% to lead the Magnificent Seven in an otherwise challenging session for the group. That kind of relative strength from Meta is notable — it's a name that tends to attract institutional interest when investors are looking for earnings-backed growth rather than pure momentum plays, and today it served as a defensive anchor for the cohort. When Meta is leading on a down day for the broader market, it tells you that money isn't fleeing mega-cap tech entirely — it's just getting more selective about where it lands.

The rest of the Magnificent Seven picture was a split tape, with most names managing to hold in the green even as the broader market struggled. That's a mild positive, but the headline drag came from Tesla, which gave back as much as 4.02% to sit at the opposite end of the leaderboard. After yesterday's explosive surge that had Tesla leading the entire group to the upside, today's reversal is a reminder of just how quickly sentiment can shift in a high-beta name. Apple also finished in the red, joining Tesla as the two notable exceptions to an otherwise mostly constructive day for the group.

The contrast with yesterday's session is sharp. Yesterday's broad green sweep signaled that risk appetite was returning with conviction — today's bifurcation suggests that enthusiasm was at least partially walked back. With the Nasdaq dropping 1.16% and the VIX rising 4.05% to close at 16.20, the environment tilted back toward caution, and that showed up in the Mag Seven's mixed internals. Meta holding firm while Tesla and Apple slipped reflects a market that's still willing to hold quality growth names but is trimming exposure to the more volatile, sentiment-driven stories in the group.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil made a big move today, surging 4.84% to close at $71.87 and rallying well above the $70 level that had been acting as a ceiling for months. This kind of move demands attention — energy prices at these levels aren't just a commodity story, they're a macro story. If crude can sustain a position above $70, it adds a meaningful layer of complexity to the Fed's inflation calculus, potentially giving policymakers reason to stay restrictive for longer than the market would prefer. Geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics appear to be doing the heavy lifting here, and until those forces ease, the path of least resistance for crude looks higher.

Gold took a breather after its remarkable run, pulling back 0.68% to close at $4,127. A single down session after the kind of historic climb gold has put together is nothing to read into too deeply — dip buyers have been consistent and the macro backdrop hasn't changed in any meaningful way. Institutional demand remains solid, and uncertainty in both the geopolitical and monetary policy arenas continues to give the yellow metal every reason to hold near record levels. The long-term setup here stays constructive.

Bitcoin dipped slightly, falling 0.29% but still closing above $63,806 and continuing to hold that critical $60,000 psychological zone with room to spare. Much like yesterday, the muted pullback is quietly telling — sellers simply aren't showing up with conviction. Bulls are defending this territory with patience, and until genuine selling pressure tests this floor and fails, the price action remains encouraging for the intermediate-term outlook.

Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.530% today, rising 0.98% on the session and pushing back above that critical 4.5% threshold. That's a notable shift from yesterday's brief reprieve. When yields are sitting above 4.5%, equities face headwinds, and today's modest pullback across the major indices confirmed that the bond market is once again applying pressure. The move from 4.480% yesterday to 4.530% today might seem incremental, but crossing back over that line changes the calculus for equity investors in a real way.

Here's where we stand in the framework. We're now back in the zone where stocks feel the squeeze. The next level that matters is 4.8%, where selling pressure historically escalates in a more serious and sustained way. Above 5%, the risk environment shifts meaningfully — that's where broader damage tends to show up across asset classes. And at 5.2%, the historical record points toward correction territory of 20% or more. Today's close at 4.530% keeps us well below those more dangerous thresholds, but the direction of travel is the wrong one, and that matters.

What to watch now is whether this move above 4.5% has legs or fades quickly. If upcoming inflation data comes in hot, or if Fed speakers lean hawkish, yields could push further toward 4.6% and beyond, which would add more weight to an already pressured equity market. The bulls need yields to reverse course and settle back below 4.5% to reclaim their footing. Until that happens, the bond market is working against stocks, and traders should treat every rally with appropriate caution.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Tuesday's forecast called for SPY to trade within a sixteen-point range, with $740 as the downside floor and $756 as the max upside target. The bias leaned modestly bullish given Monday's close at $751.26 sitting in the upper half of the projected range, with the critical question centered on whether bulls could hold and build above $750 or whether bears would reclaim that pivot and shift the tone lower.

The $750 level was identified as the defining battleground — serving as both the major round-number pivot and the heaviest call concentration of the session. Above there, $751, $753, and $755 were flagged as successive upside decision points, with $756 capping the range. On the downside, $747 was the first line to watch, with $746 and $745 — the gamma flip level — representing increasingly important support. A breakdown below $745 would put $742 in play and ultimately $740 as the model's put-wall floor. Positive gamma stacked between $747 and $752 was expected to keep price gravitating toward $750 as a natural magnet.

On the strategy side, the forecast recommended keeping position sizing at 80-85% of normal given the low-volatility, low-conviction environment with VIX at 15.64. Long entries were favored in the $747-748 zone, targeting $750-751 initially and $754-755 on a stronger follow-through, with stops placed below $746. Short setups were flagged near $752-753 on a failed retest, targeting $748-749 first and $745-746 on accelerating selling. The overarching theme was patience — letting price come to defined levels and waiting for confirmation rather than chasing moves in a quiet, low-fear tape.

Market Performance vs. Forecast
Tuesday's session delivered a modest pullback that aligned with several key elements of the forecast, even as the tape leaned toward the bearish side of the projected range. SPY opened at $750.22, essentially tagging the $750 major round-number pivot the model had identified as the single most critical level heading into the session — the precise battleground where the bull or bear case would be decided. That opening print confirmed the model's read on where price would gravitate, and the early inability to sustain trade above that level quickly answered the key question the forecast had posed: bulls could not hold above $750 with conviction, and the tone shifted lower from there.

The downside roadmap then took over with notable accuracy. The model had flagged $747 as the first level to watch on a failure at $750, warning that losing it cleanly would shift the tone and open the door toward $746 — and that is precisely what the tape delivered. SPY pressed toward a session low of $745.21, tagging the $745 gamma flip level the forecast had explicitly identified as a critical line in the sand for bulls. That level absorbed the selling pressure and held as a floor, preventing a deeper move toward $742 and confirming that the put wall structure the model outlined was doing its job. The close at $747.62 landed inside the projected range, consistent with the bearish scenario the strategy section had described when a firm close below $748 was the trigger.

The short setup framework proved particularly valuable. The model had identified the $752-753 zone as a ceiling where sellers had already defended once, and Tuesday's session high of $750.96 confirmed that overhead resistance remained firmly in place — price never even reached that zone, meaning short entries near $750 on the failed hold carried clean structure throughout the day. Risk management protocols on any long positions entered in the $747-748 zone protected capital as the session low undercut $746, and the VIX rising 4.05% to 16.20 introduced a modest uptick in fear that the low-volatility positioning framework had flagged as a reason to keep sizing measured. The model's options-driven structure identified the right levels, the right tone, and the right risk parameters — and that consistency across both directions is exactly what gives the framework its edge heading into Wednesday.

Premarket Analysis Summary
The premarket analysis posted at market open identified SPY spot at $750.07 sitting in a call-dominated environment with price resting directly on the key 750 round-number pivot after holding constructive levels. The immediate gate was set at $751, flagged as the level where positive gamma builds decisively and the structural flip that would confirm a bullish bias — reclaiming it was described as the key to unlocking upside. The heaviest concentration zone and major call wall was mapped at $753, identified as the magnet and primary battleground price would gravitate toward above the gate. Targets continued higher through $755 as the expected move top, $757 as the next resistance, and $758 as max upside. On the downside, $749 was flagged as the immediate first trigger sitting just below spot, with $748 marked as the critical acceleration zone where the heaviest negative gamma strike resided. Below there, $746 was the next decision point, $745 the gamma flip and point of last hope, and $744 the max downside near the bottom of the expected move. The analysis noted that spot sat directly in a negative gamma pocket between the flips and warned to expect choppy two-way action until price committed one direction.

The actual session validated the downside scenario. SPY opened at $750.22 and never managed a clean reclaim of the $751 gate, stalling just below it with a session high of $750.96 — essentially confirming the resistance held. From there, price reversed and worked lower, eventually cracking the $748 acceleration zone and extending down to a session low of $745.21, testing the gamma flip support level almost precisely before finding a floor. The close at $747.62 landed squarely in the middle of the negative gamma zone, confirming the choppy and ultimately bearish resolution the analysis warned about when $751 failed to hold. VIX rising 4.05% to 16.20 aligned with the deteriorating tone, and the day was a clean validation of the downside framework once the gate above failed to break.

Validation of the Analysis
Today's session gave traders a textbook example of the premarket framework defining price action from open to close, even in a day that ultimately resolved to the downside. The analysis opened with spot at 750.07 and immediately identified the negative gamma pocket around current price as the key risk — warning that until SPY reclaimed 751, the structure was "balanced on the flip" and that choppy two-way action should be expected. That's exactly what the market delivered. SPY opened at $750.22, made a feeble attempt at 751, topped out at $750.96 — just four cents shy of the gate level — and then rejected hard, never once establishing the constructive momentum the premarket said required a clean 751 reclaim. That failed push at the 751 threshold was the signal. Traders watching that level as the defining line between bull and bear structure had a clear, actionable read the moment price stalled there.

The downside roadmap then executed almost step by step. The premarket flagged 749 as the first level to watch and warned that losing 748 cleanly — the heaviest negative gamma strike — would accelerate selling and open the door to 746 and then 745, the gamma flip labeled the "point of last hope." SPY broke through 749 and 748 without meaningful defense, sliced to a session low of $745.21, and found its footing essentially right at that 745 gamma flip zone. The bounce off 745 and the close at $747.62 — settling back into the 746-748 decision range the analysis had mapped — completed the picture. The VIX rising 4.05% to 16.20 confirmed the risk-off tone the gamma structure warned about when price failed to hold above the 751 pivot. From the rejection at the gate to the flush into named support, the premarket defined today's entire trading range before a single share changed hands.

Looking Ahead
Wednesday brings the main event of the week — the FOMC Meeting Minutes — and rate-sensitive traders will want to be locked in when they drop. The Minutes give markets a deeper look under the hood at how Fed officials were thinking during their last meeting, including where the internal debate stands on the pace and timing of any future rate moves. With the bond market already on edge and investors parsing every signal for clues on the Fed's next step, this release has real potential to shift the narrative in a hurry.

Come into Wednesday with your levels set and your positioning clean. The Minutes can cut either way — a hawkish tone that signals rates staying higher for longer could weigh on equities and push yields up, while any language hinting at a more cautious or data-dependent approach could give bulls fresh fuel. Either way, the tape will tell you something important about where the market wants to go next, so pay close attention to how price reacts in the immediate aftermath and whether the move has volume behind it.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels
The directional picture today tilts modestly bearish, with SPY shedding 0.49% and closing well off its intraday high — a clear edge for the bears as the index gave back ground it couldn't hold. The session opened near $750.22, briefly tagged a high of $750.96, then spent the rest of the day drifting lower into a close of $747.62, which tells you buyers stepped in early but couldn't sustain the momentum. The VIX rising 4.05% to 16.20 reflects a measurable uptick in anxiety — not panic-level fear, but enough of a move to suggest traders are hedging into uncertainty rather than leaning confidently into the tape. Near-average volume of 40.10M keeps this from being a full-on distribution day, but the price action itself carries a defensive undertone that bulls can't simply brush aside.

Key resistance now sits at $750.96, today's intraday high that was tapped early and quickly rejected. A clean reclaim of that level on solid volume would shift the narrative back toward the bulls and likely trigger a push toward the prior session's highs. On the downside, $745.21 — today's low — is the immediate support level to watch. A break below that level with follow-through selling would put the bears firmly in the driver's seat and open the door to a more meaningful leg lower. Gold pulling back 0.68% to $4,127 removes one of the defensive safety valves from the picture, while Bitcoin dipping slightly to a close just above $63,806 suggests risk appetite remains tentative rather than outright fleeing. The 10-year yield holding above 4.5% keeps pressure on equity valuations in the background, and the sharp 4.84% spike in crude oil adds an inflationary wrinkle the market doesn't need right now. Bears have the short-term edge, but $745.21 is the line in the sand — hold it and the bulls still have a case to make.

Expected Price Action
Wednesday's session presents actionable intelligence generated by our AI model, with SPY projected to trade within a range anchored by $744 on the downside and $758 as the max upside target. That fourteen-point window signals the market will trend rather than consolidate, and with Tuesday's close at $747.62 sitting in the lower half of the expected move, the bias leans modestly bearish heading into Wednesday — with the key question being whether bears continue pressing lower or whether bulls reclaim the critical $751 pivot and shift the structure back to constructive.

The defining level heading into Wednesday is $751, which the model identifies as the immediate gate above current price where positive gamma builds decisively. A clean reclaim of $751 flips the structure firmly bullish and opens the door toward $753, where the single heaviest call concentration of the session sits as the day's magnet and battleground. Above there, $755 marks the expected move top, $757 is the next resistance level, and $758 caps the range as max upside. On the downside, $749 is the first level to watch — that negative gamma zone sits just below current price, and losing it cleanly opens the door lower. A break of $748 is where selling could truly accelerate, as that strike carries the heaviest negative gamma nearby and serves as a key battleground for both sides. Below $748, $746 becomes the next decision point, followed by $745 as the gamma flip level and the last line of defense for bulls. A failure at $745 puts $744 in play as the model's ultimate floor. With VIX rising to 16.20 and spot currently sitting right in the negative gamma pocket between the flips, price will likely chop two-way until it commits decisively above $751 or breaks cleanly below $748 — those are the two levels that define Wednesday's directional story.

Trading Strategy
The VIX rising 4.05% to 16.20 marks a meaningful uptick in fear, pulling the gauge off its recent complacent lows and signaling that options markets are beginning to price in more near-term uncertainty. At 16.20, we're not in panic territory by any stretch, but the directional shift matters — when the VIX is climbing alongside a down session, it tells you that hedging demand is picking up and traders are less willing to sell protection cheaply. That environment calls for slightly tighter position sizing, around 75-80% of normal, and a greater emphasis on letting price confirm your thesis before initiating. Near-average volume on the session suggests the selling wasn't a panicked flush, but the combination of a rising VIX and a lower close means the burden of proof is now on the bulls.

Long setups become interesting in the $745-747 zone, where the intraday low and the session close are clustered and represent the area buyers attempted to defend into the close. Entries in that range carry an initial profit target of $750-751, with a secondary leg toward $753-754 if breadth firms up and volume expands with conviction. Stops on longs belong below $744 — a break there opens the door to more aggressive selling with little structural support nearby. In a rising market scenario, a clean push back above $750.96 on strong internals sets up a momentum add, with targets at $753 on the first leg and $756-757 if fresh buying carries through. Trail stops up to $748 as the trade develops to lock in gains and avoid giving back progress.

Short setups are worth watching near the $750-751 zone, where the session open and high already acted as resistance that sellers defended without much effort. A failed re-test of that area on weak internals or declining advance-decline numbers sets up a clean fade, with initial downside targets at $746-747 and a deeper move toward $743-744 if selling pressure accelerates. In a declining market scenario, a sustained close below $745.21 reopens short entries with targets at $742, stops placed above $748. With the VIX at 16.20 and trending higher, keep stop-loss parameters in the 1.5-2% range from entry, avoid pressing shorts that are already extended intraday, and respect the possibility of a sharp snapback — rising volatility cuts both ways, and the edge still belongs to the trader who waits for the level, not the one chasing the move.

Model’s Projected Range
SPY's projected maximum range for Wednesday is $739 to $752, with the Call side dominating in an expanding band that suggests trending price action with intermittent chop. Wednesday brings the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which are likely to produce significant volatility particularly in the first hour of trading. Tuesday's session saw SPY open at $750.22, tag a high of $750.96, and slide to a low of $745.21 before closing at $747.62, down 0.49% on the day, with the VIX climbing 4.05% to 16.20 suggesting elevated fear as traders positioned cautiously ahead of the Fed minutes. SPY remains in the $745 to $750 range that has defined recent trading, with lingering macro uncertainty continuing to keep bulls and bears in a tug of war near these levels. On the upside, our model places the first resistance at $750, and a clean break above it targets $752 next — on the downside, the first support sits at $745, and a loss of that level opens the door to $743, and if that gives way there is little to keep price from falling toward $740. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 with SPY well above structural support. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $750, $752, $753, $755, while support rests at $745, $743, $742, $740. Given that SPY closed near the lower end of its recent range, we favor buying dips at $745 on any early weakness Wednesday. Bitcoin slipped 0.29% to close above $63,806 while MAG stocks were mostly green led by Meta up 2.55%, though Tesla dragged with a loss of 4.02% — the strength in most of the Mag names is a modest positive for the broader tape, but Tesla's weakness is worth watching if it continues to weigh on sentiment. The VIX closed at 16.20, up 4.05%, suggesting elevated fear given the cautious positioning ahead of Wednesday's Fed minutes release. SPY closed near the lower portion of its near-term trend channel, with structural support near $745 keeping the broader uptrend intact for now.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended in a Ranging Market State with SPY closing at $747.62. Since SPY closed inside the MSI range, support remains at $746.33 and resistance remains at $748.80 heading into Wednesday. Extended targets were not printing at the close, a signal that while Tuesday's session saw significant directional movement intraday, the conviction to sustain a trend in either direction had faded by end of day. Extended targets were active during both the AM and PM sessions, printing above as price pushed higher early in premarket and then below as the selloff accelerated after the open. The MSI opened overnight in a wide bullish state with extended targets above keeping price elevated through the premarket session near $750. At the open the MSI reversed sharply with extended targets below driving price from $750 down to $745 before the bulls stepped back in. The MSI began rescaling higher with price recovering back toward $749 through midday but failed to hold a bullish state and settled into a wide ranging state into the close with price consolidating between $746 and $749. Without extended targets at the close the MSI is forecasting sideways consolidation for Wednesday with the ranging state suggesting price will likely remain range bound between $746 and $749 absent any new catalyst. MSI support is $746.33 with resistance at $748.80.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
Monday we stated, "Bulls want to see overnight price hold above $748.63, which now flips to support given Monday's close above that level, and use it as a launching pad to press SPY toward the premarket levels above," and Tuesday delivered a volatile session that tested both sides of the tape. SPY opened at $750.22 and the MSI was already in a Bullish Trending state with extended targets printing above from overnight, giving bulls a clean green light as price pushed toward the session high of $750.96. That was the morning's primary long setup. The tell that the AM move was running out of fuel came from the MSI itself — once extended targets stopped printing above, the rally stalled and reversed hard. What followed was a sharp selloff as the MSI rescaled lower with extended targets printing below, confirming this was not a routine pullback but a genuine trending move lower with the herd fully engaged. SPY dropped from the $751 area all the way to a session low of $745.21 before buyers stepped in. As extended targets below stopped printing, SPY found its footing, bounced, and ultimately reversed to close at $747.62 in a wide Ranging state. SPY fell 0.49% on the day with trading volume of 40.10 million shares near average. The VIX rose 4.05% to 16.20, a meaningful expansion in fear that aligns with the intraday selling pressure. At minimum it was a two-for-two session for traders following the framework. It was a volatile but readable day with substantial setups, all identified through proper context, patience, and flexibility while leveraging the MSI, premarket levels, and market structure rather than forcing trades. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Wednesday has heavy economic data with FOMC Meeting Minutes which can introduce significant volatility, so traders should be ready to trade what they see rather than predict. That said, the MSI is forecasting sideways consolidation for Wednesday with the ranging state suggesting price will likely remain range bound between $746 and $749 absent any new catalyst. The absence of extended targets at the close and the Ranging structure both point toward a continuation of Tuesday's indecisive tone, with any directional move likely modest. The FOMC Minutes release during the PM session is the wildcard and could shift the tone quickly in either direction, making it critical that traders follow the MSI signal in real time rather than anchoring to a predetermined directional bias.
Bulls want to see overnight price hold above $746.33 MSI support and use that level as a launching pad to press SPY back toward $748.80 resistance. If bulls can defend $746.33 with conviction and the MSI rescales into a Bullish Trending state with extended targets printing above, the sideways thesis gets shelved quickly and price could push toward $748.80 and potentially beyond. Bears want to see $748.80 resistance hold and press price back toward $746.33 MSI support below. If $746.33 gives way and the MSI rescales lower into a Bearish Trending state with extended targets printing below, Tuesday's bounce off the lows would come into question and price could revisit even lower levels. Any rally that stalls and reverses near $748.80 resistance is a potential shorting opportunity targeting $746.33 support and the premarket levels below, while any dip that stabilizes and bounces cleanly at $746.33 is a reasonable long entry targeting $748.80 resistance above. Given the Ranging state, failed breakouts and failed breakdowns at either boundary are the highest-probability setups.
The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 and failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups. Remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States unless a clear failed breakout or breakdown presents itself, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven't yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Dealers are selling SPY $749 to $763 and higher strike Calls, indicating the Dealers see a ceiling above for Tuesday. The ceiling for Tuesday appears to be $751. To the downside, Dealers are buying $745 to $682 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying moderate concern that prices could move lower. Notably, Dealers are selling ATM Puts in small size at $746 to $748, indicating their belief that prices will continue to rise Tuesday. Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $746. They remain hedged implying limited upside conviction. Below $745 is bearish and above $747 is bullish. Should SPY fail to hold $746, the zone from $740 to $745 will be choppy and full of traps. Dealer positioning is unchanged at neutral/slightly bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $749 to $768 and higher strike Calls for the week ahead. The ceiling for the week appears to be $753. To the downside, Dealers are buying $743 to $638 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying moderate concern that prices could move lower. Dealers are selling ATM Puts broadly at $744 to $748 into July 10, indicating strong conviction that prices will continue to rise. Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $744. There is a clear floor at $744 with major resistance at $749 to $753. Remain bullish above $744 but below $742 and especially $738 we are bearish. Dealers are positioned for a continuation of the rally anticipating further upside into mid-July. For the week Dealer positioning has improved from bearish to neutral/bullish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders
With SPY closing at $747.62 and VIX elevated at 16.20, watch $745 as your key support — holding there keeps longs viable toward $750, while a break lower favors shorts. Keep stops tight given the rising volatility.

Don't oversize positions with the 10-year yield sitting above 4.5% and pressure building across indices. Review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET for any changes in the model's outlook and Dealer Positioning.

Good luck and good trading!