Market Insights: Thursday, July 30th, 2026

Market Overview
US stocks bounced back hard on Thursday, with Microsoft leading a broad tech rally that helped investors shrug off a bond market rout, fresh US strikes on Iranian targets overnight, and lingering concerns about AI spending. The Dow climbed nearly 1.2%, the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, and the Nasdaq surged more than 2.8% — a sharp reversal after the Nasdaq-100 entered correction territory on Wednesday. Chip stocks led the charge, driving much of the Nasdaq's outsized move.

The big story was the split reaction to Wednesday's after-hours earnings. Microsoft exploded more than 15% — its best single-day gain since 2008 — after Azure crossed $100 billion in revenue for the first time, also marking the largest single-day market cap gain ever recorded by any company. Meta went the other direction, falling about 8% after an earnings miss deepened fears that its AI investment cycle isn't paying off fast enough. With Amazon and Apple both set to report after the bell — Amazon facing questions on cloud capex and Apple on margins amid rising memory chip prices — earnings season stays front and center. Meanwhile, June PCE inflation data came in cooler than May, and Q2 GDP growth missed expectations, giving the Fed something to think about as the 30-year Treasury yield pushed to a multidecade high near 5.24%.

SPY Performance
SPY opened at $736.05 and wasted little time proving that yesterday's ugly reversal wasn't the beginning of something worse. Buyers stepped in early and kept the pressure on, pushing price up to a high of $742.45 before settling into a tight range into the close. The low of $734.59 held firm, and the close at $741.74 near the top of the day's range tells you everything about who was in control from start to finish. That's the kind of session that erases bad memories fast — a clean, decisive push higher with no late-day collapse to undercut the message.

SPY closed up 1.68%, recovering a significant chunk of what was lost in yesterday's punishing selloff. Volume came in at 53.99 million shares, near average, which means this wasn't a short-squeeze-fueled headfake driven by thin conditions — real buyers showed up and followed through. The VIX confirmed the mood shift in a big way, dropping 15.49% to close at 17.46, a meaningful retreat that suggests fear is unwinding quickly after yesterday's flare-up. One day doesn't flip the script entirely, but a strong close near the highs with the VIX pulling back hard is exactly the combination bulls needed to see. The question now is whether this holds and builds, or fades again like so many recent attempts. The bears had their statement yesterday — today the bulls answered back.

Major Indices Performance
The Nasdaq led the charge on the day, posting a strong 2.78% gain that put it at the top of the leaderboard. That kind of move from the Nasdaq tells you a lot about what was driving the rally — this was largely a growth and tech story, with momentum names getting a serious bid after recent weakness. When the Nasdaq outperforms by that margin on a broad up day, it signals that risk appetite came back in a real way, not just a timid bounce.

The S&P 500 also closed firmly in the green, and the broad participation gave the session some genuine credibility. The Russell 2000 came in at 1.38%, which is a solid showing for small-caps and suggests the buying wasn't purely concentrated in mega-cap territory. Small-cap participation on an up day is a healthy sign — it means the optimism was spreading beyond just the usual suspects at the top of the market cap ladder.

The Dow brought up the rear with a 1.19% gain, which is still a respectable move but stands out as the laggard in a session where growth clearly outshone value. That's essentially the mirror image of recent sessions where the Dow had been dragging the market lower. The rotation dynamic flipped today — cyclicals and blue-chips got left behind while higher-beta names grabbed the spotlight. The pecking order reversal from yesterday's selloff is meaningful, and it tells you the market's character shifted notably heading into the close.

Notable Stock Movements
Microsoft stole the show today, surging as much as 15.51% to lead the Magnificent Seven in a dramatic reversal from yesterday's broad selloff. That kind of single-session move from the world's largest company by market cap isn't something you see every day, and it immediately set a constructive tone for the entire group. When a name with that much index weight rips higher with conviction, it acts as a rising tide for growth sentiment across the board.

The rest of the Magnificent Seven were mostly along for the ride, with the group posting a largely green session that stood in sharp contrast to yesterday's red sweep. The notable exceptions were Alphabet, Apple, and Meta, with Meta dragging the hardest at -7.95%. That's a significant single-day loss for one of the cohort's core advertising-driven names, and it's worth keeping an eye on — a drop of that magnitude from Meta suggests there's company-specific pressure at play, whether that's earnings-related disappointment or a broader repricing of its growth outlook. Alphabet and Apple also finished in the red, meaning three of the seven names were unable to participate in the rally.

Still, when you zoom out, a session where four of the Magnificent Seven finish green and the leader gains over 15% is a net positive for growth sentiment. Microsoft's outsized move provided the kind of momentum injection that can shift the narrative quickly, and with the broader indices all rallying in tandem today, the bulls reclaimed the upper hand. Meta's selloff is a real blemish on what was otherwise a strong recovery day for this group, but Microsoft's dominance made sure the overall Magnificent Seven story read bullish.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil slipped 0.84% today, settling at $83.75, a modest pullback after recent strength that keeps the commodity well above levels where supply and demand fundamentals would suggest equilibrium. Even with today's dip, crude is still running hot in territory that keeps inflationary pressure squarely on the table. The energy market has rallied well above recent expectations, and as long as crude holds at these elevated levels, the Fed's job doesn't get any easier. Geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics remain the primary forces keeping the black gold bid, and a sustained stay above $70 continues to complicate the policy picture if energy costs refuse to meaningfully cool off.

Gold had another impressive session, surging 3.33% to close at $4,169, building convincingly on recent momentum. The metal is in full bull mode right now, and today's move reinforces just how strong the underlying bid is. Global uncertainty, persistent central bank demand, and an unresolved rate environment continue to funnel money into gold as a store of value, and with each new leg higher, the longer-term uptrend looks more and more durable. The area near $4,000 that previously served as a key floor now looks like a distant memory.

Bitcoin gained 1.45% today, closing just above $64,833, a solid move that keeps the broader structure trending in the right direction. Crypto is showing some life here, and holding above the $63,000 zone that bulls have defended gives the setup a constructive look. Today's gain isn't a breakout moment, but it's the kind of quiet accumulation that can build into something bigger if momentum continues to build.

Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield continued its march higher today, climbing another 0.89% to close at 4.660%. Yesterday's uptick wasn't a one-day blip — it was the beginning of a directional shift, and today's move confirms that the brief three-session pullback is fully in the rearview mirror. Yields are now grinding higher with back-to-back sessions of pressure, and the bond market isn't offering equities any relief.

Inside the framework, sitting at 4.660% keeps the market firmly in uncomfortable territory. The pressure zone above 4.5% has been holding yields hostage for some time now, and despite today's broad equity rally, the yield backdrop is quietly working against the bulls. The 4.8% threshold — where selling tends to accelerate in a more serious way — is now just 14 basis points away. That gap is shrinking, and with yield momentum pointing in the wrong direction, it can close faster than anyone expects. Today's green tape across the major indices is encouraging on the surface, but a sustained equity rally becomes increasingly difficult to maintain as yields push deeper into this range.

The critical thing to watch is whether 4.660% acts as a launching pad toward 4.8% or whether bond sellers finally exhaust themselves here. Two consecutive sessions of rising yields following the three-day pullback suggests the path of least resistance is still higher, not lower. Bulls need yields to reverse hard and break convincingly below 4.5% — that's the signal that would change the conversation. Until that happens, every additional basis point closer to 4.8% is one more reason to stay cautious, regardless of what the stock market does on any given day. Don't let today's rally lull you into complacency. The yield story isn't over.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Yesterday's forecast set SPY's expected trading range between $731 on the downside and $750 as the max upside target — a nineteen-point window that signaled a trending, directional session rather than a sideways grind. With Wednesday's close at $729.52 sitting below the floor of that projected range, the bias heading into Thursday was clearly bearish, putting the pressure on bulls to reclaim lost ground quickly or face further deterioration.

The key level to watch was $742, identified as the gamma gate where market structure would turn constructive. Bulls needed to clear and hold that level to shift the tone from defensive to offensive, with targets above at $744, $746, $748, and ultimately $750 as the absolute upside ceiling. On the downside, $740 was the first critical level — losing it cleanly was expected to open the door to acceleration lower through a negative gamma pocket. Below there, $739 was flagged as where selling could pick up real speed, with $735 serving as the major put wall and last line of defense before $731 came into play. The elevated VIX above 19 reinforced the warning that downside moves could accelerate with minimal cushion in that negative gamma environment.

The recommended trading strategy called for reduced position sizing in the 50-60% of normal exposure range, with tighter-than-usual stop-losses in the 1.25-1.5% range from entry. On the short side, a failure to reclaim $732-733 on the open was the trigger, targeting $727-728 initially with a break below $729.10 opening a path toward $725-726, and stops above $735. On the long side, a reclaim of $732-733 with conviction was the trigger targeting $736-737 and then $740, while the more conservative entry was a confirmed bounce off $725-726 targeting $729-730 first and $732 on continuation, with stops below $724. Patience and capital preservation were the overriding themes given the uncertain tape.

Market Performance vs. Forecast
Thursday's session delivered a meaningful recovery that aligned well with the bullish scenario the model had laid out, with SPY opening strong and pushing toward the upper end of the projected range. The forecast had clearly defined $742 as the gamma gate where the structure turns constructive — and while Thursday's high of $742.45 just barely kissed that level before the close settled at $741.74, the market moved with conviction in exactly the direction the rising scenario described. The open at $736.05 cleared the $732-733 reclaim level that the model flagged as the first bull trigger, and price held above that zone throughout the session without looking back — a textbook example of the structural map doing its job.

The directional bias proved correct in the most important ways. The model warned that $740 was the first level to respect on the downside and that reclaiming $742 was necessary to flip the tone from defensive to offensive — Thursday's price action validated that framework step by step, with the session high pressing right into that gamma gate. The VIX dropping 15.49% to 17.46 confirmed the volatility compression the model's framework anticipates when bulls successfully defend key gamma structure, pulling back below the 19 threshold that the prior forecast identified as psychologically significant. Traders who followed the rising market scenario and entered on the $732-733 reclaim would have tracked the long target of $736-737 quickly and seen continuation follow through toward $740 on the session. Risk was well-defined throughout with stops below $724, and the tape never threatened that level. The framework identified the right structural opportunity, the level architecture delivered clear entry logic, and Thursday's recovery reinforces the value of staying disciplined when the model's bias points the way.

Premarket Analysis Summary
The premarket analysis posted at market open identified SPY spot at $740.55 in a barely call-dominated environment described as fragile and tentative following the recent slide. The expected move was framed with $750 as the maximum upside cap and $731 as the maximum downside floor. The defining gate above was set at $742 — the heaviest positive gamma strike where clearing it with conviction would flip the structure constructive. Above that, $744 was the first target where positive gamma builds, $746 marked the next decision point, and $748 held the major call wall before $750 capped the move. The bias leaned cautiously bullish but with the thinnest of call-dominance margins, and the analysis was explicit that $742 needed to be reclaimed and held with conviction — until then, any bounce was to be treated as tentative. On the downside, $740 was flagged as the immediate round-number pivot where gamma turns negative, with a clean break there expected to open the door quickly to $739 and accelerate selling through the negative gamma pocket toward $737. Below that, $735 was identified as the critical battleground holding a significant put wall and deep negative gamma, with $731 as the max downside target at the bottom of the expected move.

The actual session told a very different story than the prior day's breakdown — this time the market answered to the upside in dramatic fashion. SPY opened at $736.05, well below the $740 pivot and outside the expected framework from the start, suggesting immediate downside pressure. But sellers couldn't sustain control, and buyers pushed the session all the way to a high of $742.45 — tagging the $742 gate the analysis had identified as the key structural level. The recovery carried conviction, and SPY closed at $741.74, effectively reclaiming and holding the gate level the premarket had flagged as the defining tell for a constructive flip. The session didn't extend into $744 or beyond, but holding $742 into the close was the constructive outcome the framework had outlined as the minimum requirement for the bounce to carry staying power. The VIX dropped 15.49% to 17.46, confirming that fear was unwinding and the stabilization the premarket described as tentative was beginning to take on real structure.

Validation of the Analysis
Thursday's session delivered a compelling validation of the premarket framework, with SPY navigating the exact levels the analysis mapped out and offering traders multiple high-conviction opportunities throughout the day. The open at $736.05 dropped directly into the downside structure the premarket had outlined — sitting below the 740 round-number pivot and inside the negative gamma zone the analysis described as the zone where selling could accelerate. That placement immediately told informed traders the session would need to fight its way back through a series of key levels rather than enjoying a clean runway higher.

The premarket was explicit that 735 was the point of last hope, carrying a significant put wall and deep negative gamma, making it a critical battleground. The session low of $734.59 pierced that level by the narrowest of margins before buyers stepped in and the recovery began — a textbook test of a major support zone that traders who had the analysis in hand would have recognized instantly as a potential long entry with defined risk. From that $734.59 low, price launched higher, and the next major test came at 742 — the gate the premarket identified as the heaviest positive gamma strike and the level that flips the structure constructive when cleared firmly. SPY pushed to a high of $742.45, tagging that level with precision before closing at $741.74, confirming that 742 remains the central pivot point the analysis designated. The close just below 742 shows the market respected the exact framework, holding the upside gate as a meaningful boundary into the close. The VIX collapsing 15.49% to 17.46 confirmed the sentiment reversal the recovery warranted. From the 735 battleground hold to the 742 ceiling test, today's action was a near-perfect overlay of the premarket roadmap.

Looking Ahead
Friday's economic calendar is quiet, with no high-impact releases scheduled to shake things up. After a week that delivered an FOMC decision, advance GDP, and Core PCE all in rapid succession, traders get a bit of breathing room to close out the month of July on their own terms.

That doesn't mean Friday is a throwaway session. With month-end on July 31st, portfolio rebalancing flows can create unusual price action that doesn't necessarily reflect the underlying trend. Institutional players will be squaring books, and that can push indexes and individual names in directions that feel disconnected from the fundamental picture. Use the session to reassess your positioning in light of everything this week delivered — the GDP and Core PCE prints gave the market a lot to digest, and Friday is the day traders decide how they want to carry that story into August.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels
The directional bias today tilts firmly bullish, and the session delivered the kind of broad-based recovery that gives bulls something real to work with. SPY closed at $741.74, up 1.68% on the day, reclaiming ground with near-average volume of 53.99 million shares — meaning this wasn't a low-conviction short squeeze, it was steady, sustained buying. The VIX cratering 15.49% to 17.46 is a meaningful shift in tone, pulling fear back from recent elevated levels and signaling that the anxiety gripping markets over the past several sessions may be starting to ease. When you combine a VIX flush of that magnitude with green across all four major indices and gold surging 3.33% to $4,169, the market is in an interesting spot — risk assets and safe havens both rallying together suggests capital is moving aggressively off the sidelines rather than simply rotating.

Key resistance now sits at $742.45, today's intraday high. A clean break and daily close above that level opens the door to the $745 to $748 zone, where SPY could encounter the next meaningful layer of overhead supply. If bulls can hold that ground, the path toward $750 becomes a real conversation. On the downside, support sits at $734.59, today's session low, with a secondary floor near $730 if that level gives way. A break below $734.59 on elevated volume would be a warning sign that today's rally was more relief than reversal, and the bears could quickly reassert control. Treasury yields holding above 4.5% remain a headwind worth monitoring, and any uptick from current levels could cap the upside quickly. Bitcoin adding 1.45% and gold's strong close suggest risk appetite is improving, but the bulls still need to prove they can push through resistance before the all-clear is sounded.

Expected Price Action
Friday's session presents actionable intelligence generated by our AI model, with SPY projected to trade within a range defined by $731 on the downside and $750 as the max upside target. That nineteen-point window clears the trending threshold comfortably, meaning Friday is set up to move with directional conviction rather than chop sideways. With Thursday's close at $741.74 sitting just below the defining $742 gate, the bias leans cautiously bullish heading into Friday — but the bulls haven't fully sealed the deal yet, and that distinction matters.

The $742 level is the critical tell. That's the gamma gate and the heaviest positive gamma strike, and clearing it with conviction is what flips the structure from tentative recovery to confirmed breakout. A clean hold above $742 opens the path to $744 first, then $746 as the next meaningful decision point, with $748 serving as the major call wall and $750 capping the expected move as the absolute upside ceiling. The call-dominance is razor-thin right now, so bulls need to reclaim $742 early and hold it — a failure to do so keeps the tone fragile despite Thursday's strong session. On the downside, $740 is the first level to defend — that round-number pivot is where gamma turns negative, and losing it cleanly opens the door lower in a hurry. A break of $740 puts $739 in play where selling can accelerate, followed by $737 through the negative gamma pocket, then $735 as the critical battleground where the heaviest put wall sits. A failure at $735 clears a fast path to $731, the floor of the expected move. With VIX having collapsed 15.49% to 17.46, the environment is meaningfully less dangerous than it was earlier this week — but $742 remains the line in the sand, and Friday's narrative gets written by whether bulls can clear it and hold with conviction.

Trading Strategy
The VIX dropping 15.49% to 17.46 is a meaningful shift in market psychology that traders should not ignore. Moving back below the 19-20 zone removes a significant layer of institutional hedging pressure and signals that fear is unwinding at a healthy pace. At 17.46, the tape is trending toward a more constructive environment, but this level still warrants measured position sizing — think 70-80% of normal exposure rather than going full throttle. Stop-losses can be loosened slightly compared to recent sessions, but keep them in the 1.25-1.5% range from entry to stay disciplined. The near-average volume on today's strong session tells you participation was solid without being euphoric, which is actually a healthy sign — it leaves room for continuation without the exhaustion that comes from a volume blowoff.

In a falling market scenario, the key line in the sand is $741-742. If SPY opens and immediately fails to hold that zone, a short entry targeting $736-737 is the first logical play, with stops above $744 to protect against a failed breakdown. A clean break below $736 opens the door toward $732-733, which was recent resistance and now becomes the next meaningful support test. In that case, tighten the short target to $732 and look for signs of stabilization before pressing further. The prior session's heavy selling structure is still fresh enough in the chart's memory that a rollover from current levels wouldn't be surprising — respect the possibility even as today's session leaned bullish.

In a rising market scenario, $741.74 is now the pivot. Bulls need to see SPY open and hold above that close, with a push toward $742.45 — today's high — acting as the first breakout trigger. A clean move above $742.45 on confirming volume sets up a long targeting $746-747, with $750 as the stretch target on strong continuation. The more conservative long entry is a pullback to $738-739 that holds and bounces with conviction, targeting $742-743 as the first profit zone and $746 on follow-through. Stops on longs belong below $736 to guard against a reversal back into the prior breakdown zone. With VIX cooling to 17.46 and broad market momentum improving, the bias tilts long — but wait for confirmed price action at your level before adding size, and always let the market prove itself before committing full position.

Model’s Projected Range
SPY's projected maximum range for Friday is $734 to $750, with the Put side dominating in an expanding band that suggests trending price action with intermittent chop. Friday brings no economic news due out so the market will trade on technicals. SPY had a strong session, opening at $736.05, dipping to a low of $734.59 before powering higher to a high of $742.45 and closing at $741.74, up 1.68% on the day, though volume came in lower than average. SPY is trading near our model's first support at $740, with ongoing U.S.-China trade optimism continuing to provide a tailwind for risk assets. On the upside, our model's first resistance sits at $745 — a clean break above that level puts $746 in play next, while on the downside, a loss of $740 opens the door to a test of $735, and if that gives way there is little to keep price from falling toward $730. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 with SPY well above structural support. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $745, $746, $748, $750, while support rests at $740, $735, $734, $730. We favor buying dips at $740 given SPY closed right at that first model support level after a strong session. Bitcoin closed above $64,833, up 1.45%, and MAG stocks were mostly green across the board led by Microsoft surging up to 15.51%, though Meta was the notable laggard dragging lower by as much as -7.95% — the broad strength across crypto and most of the Mag names supports the continuation of the rally despite Meta's drag. The VIX closed at 17.46, down 15.49%, suggesting a significant reduction in fear as bulls reasserted control and the market shook off its recent anxiety. SPY closed near the upper portion of its trend channel, with structural support near the $734 to $735 area aligning well with our model levels below.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended in a Bullish Trending Market State with SPY closing at $741.74. MSI resistance is $742.27 and support is $738.44 heading into Friday. Extended targets were printing above at the close, a meaningful signal that upside momentum remains intact. Extended targets were also visible above during premarket, the AM session, and the PM session, meaning bulls maintained consistent pressure throughout the entire trading day. The MSI rescaled higher overnight into a wide ranging state that held well into the open, then rescaled higher again by midday, taking SPY along with it for a strong push toward MSI resistance. The session essentially started slow and finished with conviction, and the wide $3.83 spread confirms that the bulls have real room to work with heading into Friday. We don't favor trading ranging states, but the one long setup that emerged during the session worked perfectly as the MSI confirmed the shift to a Bullish Trending state and price followed. With extended targets printing above at the close, the MSI is forecasting a strong continuation higher with the bulls maintaining control and extended targets above suggesting upside momentum will persist. MSI support is $738.44 with resistance at $742.27.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
Wednesday we stated, "Bulls want to see overnight price stabilize and push back above $730.11 MSI resistance with conviction," and added, "if the economic data surprises to the upside and the MSI rescales higher with extended targets printing above, the relief rally could accelerate quickly," while also noting, "failed breakouts near $730.11 and failed breakdowns near $725.98 remain the cleanest setups regardless of direction." Thursday delivered on all of that and then some. SPY opened at $736.05 in a ranging state that had held overnight in a wide configuration, giving traders an early read that price was coiling before a directional push. The ranging state kept us patient and out of trouble early, exactly as the framework calls for. By midday the MSI rescaled higher and transitioned to a Bullish Trending state, pulling SPY along with it in a clean, readable move toward resistance. That rescaling and transition to a trending state was the signal traders needed, offering a long entry off the newly established MSI support level and targeting MSI resistance above. Price tracked higher steadily and eventually reached a session high of $742.45, just touching the $742.27 resistance level before settling at $741.74 into the close. With extended targets printing above throughout the session and again at the close, the move had conviction behind it from start to finish. SPY gained 1.68% on the day with volume coming in at 53.99 million shares, near average. The VIX dropped 15.49% to 17.46 as fear continued to unwind and sentiment improved meaningfully. It was an easy day to read and execute with substantial setups, all identified through proper context, patience, and flexibility while leveraging the MSI, premarket levels, and market structure rather than forcing trades. At minimum it was a one-for-one session for traders following the framework. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Friday has light economic news but the wide bullish MSI with extended targets above suggests continuation higher is the most likely outcome. The Bullish Trending state at the close combined with a $3.83 wide spread and extended targets printing above heading into the weekend creates a compelling setup for the bulls. Absent any external catalyst, the path of least resistance remains to the upside and any dip to MSI support is a buying opportunity as long as the state holds.
Bulls want to see price hold above $738.44 MSI support overnight and push through $742.27 resistance with conviction at the open. If price clears that level and holds it as support on a retest, the MSI may rescale higher and open the door toward levels meaningfully above the current range. With extended targets already printing above at Thursday's close, any continuation of that signal into Friday's session gives longs high-probability entries off the $738.44 level targeting a breakout above $742.27 and beyond.
Bears want to see $738.44 MSI support fail. If price breaks below that level overnight or early in Friday's session and the MSI transitions away from a Bullish Trending state, the recent move higher could stall and reverse. Any rally toward $742.27 that fails to break through cleanly is the best available short setup for the bears, but they remain at a significant disadvantage as long as the MSI holds in a Bullish Trending state with extended targets printing above. Bears need a catalyst or a clear MSI state change to regain any meaningful control.
The highest-probability setup for Friday is a dip to or near $738.44 MSI support that holds and confirms the bullish state, giving traders a clean long entry targeting a push above $742.27. If extended targets continue printing above at the open, that setup becomes even more compelling and traders should lean into the trend with discipline. Failed breakdowns near $738.44 and failed breakouts near $742.27 remain the cleanest entries in either direction, so let price come to the levels rather than chasing.
The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 and failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups. Remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States unless a clear failed breakout or breakdown presents itself, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven't yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Dealers are selling SPY $744 to $775 and higher strike Calls while buying $742 to $743 Calls, indicating the Dealers' desire to participate in any continuation rally on Friday. The ceiling for Friday appears to be $755. To the downside, Dealers are buying $741 to $680 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying heightened concern that prices could move lower. Dealers are buying small quantities of ATM Calls to capitalize on any continuation rally, and while they are no longer selling ATM Puts, their sale yesterday was a clear signal of the rally that followed — a reminder that Dealers only sell ATM Puts when they are fairly certain the market will move higher. Dealers remain heavily hedged but have not added to their protection, which means Dealers believe the market is fairly priced. For Friday, below $743 is bearish and above $746 is bullish, with chop expected in between. There is little resistance above $746 until $750, but support builds as prices fall toward $740 and $735. Dealer positioning is unchanged at neutral/slightly bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $751 to $782 and higher strike Calls while buying $742 to $750 Calls, indicating the Dealers' desire to participate in any rally next week. The ceiling for the week appears to be $760. To the downside, Dealers are buying $741 to $680 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying heightened concern that prices could move lower. Dealers remain heavily hedged heading into next week but have not increased their protection meaningfully, and are buying small quantities of ATM Calls looking to participate in any rally. With the heavyweight tech firms wrapping up their earnings this week, there is little to drive the market to new highs next week, while significant macro risks including the conflict with Iran, inflation, rising bond yields, and oil prices remain very much in play. We advise traders to remain bullish above $746 but below $740 stay bearish, with the range in between likely to be choppy and trap filled. We recommend all traders hedge any long book given the current environment. There is major support at $733 with major resistance at $745 and $750 which will slow any ascent. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged at bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders
SPY closed strong at $741.74 with VIX collapsing 15.49% to 17.46, so the bias flips bullish — favor longs on any pullbacks toward the $736–$737 range and look for continuation above $742.45. Keep stops tight below $734.59 and don't chase extended moves.

Size appropriately, define your risk before entry, and stay disciplined — one strong day doesn't mean the all-clear. Review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET for any changes in the model's outlook and Dealer Positioning.

Good luck and good trading!