Market Insights: Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
Market Overview
Stocks logged another day of gains Wednesday, with Big Tech leading the charge alongside a better-than-expected inflation reading at the wholesale level. The Producer Price Index showed that June wholesale inflation cooled faster than economists had anticipated, building on Tuesday's softer CPI print and giving markets another reason to feel good about the inflation trajectory. The Dow added 0.2%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, and the Nasdaq outperformed with a 0.6% gain, extending its winning streak from the prior session.
Alphabet jumped nearly 3%, and Apple hit a record high after reports surfaced that the company received approval to roll out its generative AI features in China. Chip equipment giant ASML stole the show by raising its annual sales forecast above Wall Street expectations, crediting AI demand and announcing plans to boost chipmaking equipment production capacity by 30%. That bullish outlook didn't lift all boats in the semiconductor space, though — memory chip names Micron Technology and SK Hynix each tumbled more than 7%. On the geopolitical front, rising oil prices created some headwind after President Trump said he would intensify attacks on Iran until the country stands down, adding fresh uncertainty to an already complicated energy picture.
SPY Performance
SPY opened at $754.24 and immediately showed a bit more energy than the prior session, working its way up to a high of $755.58 before running into the usual wall of sellers that tends to appear when the market strings together back-to-back modest gains. The bulls didn't force the issue, but they also didn't roll over — holding the low of $750.20 and keeping the session constructive enough to avoid any real technical damage. After two consecutive soft but positive days following last week's rough patch, the market continues to feel more like it's slowly rebuilding confidence than launching into anything aggressive.
SPY closed at $754.74, up 0.39%, another modest win that keeps the recovery narrative intact but doesn't exactly demand respect from the bears. Volume came in at 36.74 million shares, still below average, which means participation remains thin and conviction from the bull side is still questionable at best. The VIX dropped 4.55% to close at 15.75, continuing to bleed lower as fear slowly drains out of the market — and that's a genuine positive worth noting. Two straight days of VIX compression alongside two straight days of green closes is the kind of quiet momentum that can build into something real, but the volume signature keeps flashing a caution sign. The bulls are doing just enough to stay in control, but until volume starts showing up with some teeth, this recovery has the feel of a slow grind rather than a decisive turn.
Major Indices Performance
The Nasdaq led the pack on the day, climbing 0.62% as the tech-heavy index found enough support from a broadly green session across growth names to outpace its peers. The strength in the Magnificent Seven complex — particularly a standout move in Apple — gave the Nasdaq the tailwind it needed, and when those heavyweights are participating, the index tends to benefit disproportionately. It wasn't a barnburner by any stretch, but a solid gain that keeps the Nasdaq in the conversation as the market's leading index.
The Russell 2000 came in second, gaining 0.38% and continuing to show at least a modest willingness to participate in the broader market's upside. Small-caps remain a work in progress, and one session of marginal gains doesn't rewrite the narrative around this group's struggles, but the fact that they're hanging in there alongside the bigger indexes is a mildly encouraging sign. Consistency is what the Russell needs to prove — and that's still very much an open question.
The Dow rounded out the group with a 0.29% advance, a respectable showing for the blue-chip index even if it trailed its more growth-oriented counterparts. The S&P 500 also finished in positive territory on the day. What's notable about today's spread across the major indexes is how tight it actually was — unlike sessions where the Nasdaq dramatically outperforms while the Dow drags, today's gains were fairly uniform. That kind of broad participation, even if modest, tends to be healthier than a market that's being carried by just one corner of the index landscape.
Notable Stock Movements
Apple flipped the script today, surging 4.01% to lead the Magnificent Seven in what turned out to be a mostly green session for the group. That's a notable contrast from recent sessions where Apple was lagging on a green tape while the AI and infrastructure names grabbed the spotlight. Seeing Apple step up and take the leadership role suggests investors are broadening their appetite within the group rather than concentrating solely on the AI trade, and that kind of rotation is generally a healthy sign for the cohort as a whole.
The broader Magnificent Seven picture leaned green across the board, with Tesla being the lone meaningful exception, finishing at the low end of the group down 0.43%. One name pulling back while the rest advance is hardly a reason for concern — if anything, it shows the group's strength wasn't dependent on every name firing at once. Apple carrying the day while Tesla gives back a little is the kind of normal, healthy divergence you'd expect in a moderate-volume session rather than a sign of anything breaking down.
The group's mostly positive showing fits the overall risk-on lean in today's session, even if the gains were measured rather than explosive. The Nasdaq's 0.62% advance confirmed that growth and technology names maintained their bid, and with the VIX dropping 4.55% to 15.75, volatility continued its retreat into a zone that gives high-multiple names room to breathe. Tesla's minor slip is a small blemish, but Apple's leadership and the group's broadly green finish make today a quiet but constructive session for the Magnificent Seven.
Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil pushed higher again, tacking on another 1.21% to close at $80.30 and showing zero interest in pulling back. The rally well above $70 continues to defy longer-term model expectations, with supply dynamics and geopolitical pressures keeping buyers firmly in control. At these levels, energy prices are doing real damage to the inflation narrative — crude is one of the most direct pass-through costs in the economy, and a sustained stay in the low $80s makes the Fed's job considerably harder while pushing near-term rate cut hopes further into the background.
Gold essentially flatlined, slipping just 0.02% to close at $4,060. After yesterday's sharp rebound to $4,062, today's session was about consolidation rather than conviction. The $4,000 area continues to act as a magnet for buyers on any meaningful dip, and the fundamental case for gold hasn't shifted — central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and a complicated rate environment remain the core drivers keeping the metal elevated.
Bitcoin was quietly steady, dipping just 0.05% to close above $64,921. After the explosive surge seen in the prior session, today's near-flat close is actually constructive — the crypto held its gains without giving anything meaningful back. The bulls remain in firm control as long as the $60,000 floor stays intact, and the intermediate-term outlook continues to favor the upside.
Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield continued its modest retreat on the session, sliding another 0.87% to close at 4.550%. Two consecutive down days in yields is a slightly more encouraging sign for equity bulls than a single-session dip, but the honest read here is that we're still mired above the 4.5% line where pressure on stocks is a daily reality. The move is welcome — it just hasn't earned any serious celebration yet.
Inside the framework, 4.550% keeps us in that uncomfortable zone where the headwinds are persistent and real. We're sitting just 5 basis points above the critical threshold, which means one bad inflation print or a hawkish Fed comment could flip the narrative entirely and push yields back into more threatening territory before the week is out. The next major danger zone at 4.8% is 25 basis points away — not an immediate crisis, but not a comfortable cushion either. Above that level the market historically begins to see more sustained selling, and the path toward 5% and eventually 5.2% is where the framework turns genuinely alarming for equity holders.
What the bulls actually need is a convincing break back below 4.5% that holds for multiple sessions, not a slow drift just above it. Two down days is a start, but the pattern needs follow-through — a decisive move toward 4.3% or lower is what gives an equity rally real structural support. Right now, 4.550% is close enough to the danger line that it could go either way. The key watch in the sessions ahead is whether this pullback has momentum behind it or whether bond traders are simply repositioning before making another push higher. Yields need to prove the trend has actually shifted — not just taken another short breath.
Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Wednesday's forecast called for SPY to trade within a seventeen-point range, with $740 set as the model's downside floor and $757 as the max upside target. The bias leaned modestly bullish given Tuesday's close at $751.86, which placed price comfortably above the session's defining level — the $750 gamma flip point. The forecast was clear that holding $750 was the first order of business, with conditions turning constructive above it and deteriorating below it.
On the upside, the key levels to navigate were $752, then $753 as a decision point with heavy options interest, the major call wall at $755, and ultimately $757 as the ceiling bulls needed to clear to sustain momentum. On the downside, $747 was flagged as the nearest danger zone, with a clean break there opening a negative gamma pocket capable of accelerating selling. Below that, $746 and $745 were the next meaningful levels, with $743 in play before the model's ultimate floor at $740.
The trading strategy called for position sizing in the 80-85% range — an improvement from more defensive postures but short of full exposure, given that the rally came on below-average volume without clear institutional participation. Long setups were the preferred side, with a pullback into the $750-751 zone offering a solid entry opportunity targeting $753 first and $755-756 on a stronger follow-through. A breakout above $753.30 on expanding volume was identified as a momentum trigger pointing toward $755 and then $758. Short setups were considered less compelling but available on a failed rally into $753-754, targeting $750-751 initially and $748 on deeper selling. A breach of $750 on elevated pressure reopened short entries toward $748 and $746. Stop-loss parameters were set in the 1-1.25% range given the calmer volatility backdrop.
Market Performance vs. Forecast
Wednesday's session delivered a textbook validation of the forecast's structural framework, with price action respecting key model levels from the opening bell through the close. SPY opened at $754.24, gapping above the prior close and immediately testing the upper portion of the projected range — a bullish open that reflected the constructive bias the forecast had correctly identified heading into the session. The entire day's trading range was contained within the model's projected window, with the low of $750.20 finding support almost precisely at the $750 gamma flip level the forecast had designated as the defining line between constructive and deteriorating conditions. Bulls held that level, exactly as the model outlined as the first order of business.
The long setups the forecast identified proved actionable and well-structured. The $750-$751 zone the model had flagged as near-term support held on any intraday dip, and the call wall at $755 acted as the ceiling, with the session high of $755.58 stalling right at that level — the precise overhead target the forecast had identified as where sellers would begin to show up. The close at $754.74 settled comfortably in the upper portion of the projected range, and the first profit target at $753 was cleared and held as the session progressed. That kind of level-to-level structural precision is the framework operating exactly as designed.
The VIX extended its decline, dropping 4.55% to 15.75, which reinforced the measured optimism the forecast had described and kept intraday conditions stable enough for disciplined long entries. Below-average volume again reflected the quiet grind-higher environment the model had anticipated, validating the recommendation to size toward 80-85% of normal rather than pushing to full exposure. The model's directional bias, key support identification, upside targets, and volatility read all aligned with Wednesday's actual outcome — a session that demonstrated the framework's consistent ability to map the tape before it unfolds.
Premarket Analysis Summary
The premarket analysis posted at market open identified SPY spot at $753.04 sitting in a call-dominated environment, having reclaimed constructive footing after the prior session's put-dominated slide. The defining gate above was set at $754 — described as the immediate level where positive gamma builds and where buyers needed to hold with conviction to keep the pull toward $757 alive. Above there, $755 was flagged as the first target carrying heavy interest, $757 was designated the single heaviest concentration zone and the primary upside magnet for the session, $759 marked the expected move top, and $760 served as the major call wall and max upside. On the downside, $752 was identified as the first level to watch where gamma turns negative, with $751 flagged as the gamma flip and key battleground where selling could accelerate. Below there, $749 was outlined as the next decision point, $748 as the bottom of the expected move, and $745 as the max downside put wall floor. The analysis explicitly warned that losing $752 cleanly and failing $751 would trigger an acceleration toward $749.
The actual session delivered a mixed but ultimately constructive outcome that validated the upside bias while briefly flirting with the downside framework. SPY opened at $754.24, immediately clearing the critical $754 gate that the analysis had designated as the defining level — and that reclaim from the open set a positive tone right away. Price pushed to a high of $755.58, tagging the $755 target zone outlined premarket as the first meaningful resistance cluster above the gate. The session did dip to a low of $750.20, breaching the $752 and $751 downside pivots the analysis had flagged as the gamma flip zone, but the market refused to follow through toward $749 and snapped back convincingly. The close at $754.74 landed back above the $754 gate, confirming that buyers maintained control despite the intraday scare. VIX dropping 4.55% to 15.75 alongside a gain of 0.39% reflected a session where the upside framework ultimately won out, with the $754 level proving to be exactly the battleground the analysis had identified.
Validation of the Analysis
Today's session delivered another strong validation of the premarket framework, with SPY navigating the named levels cleanly from open to close and giving traders a precise roadmap for the entire day. The premarket identified 754 as the immediate gate above spot — the level where positive gamma builds and where buyers needed to hold with conviction to keep the pull toward 757 alive. SPY opened at $754.24, clearing that gate right on the first print and immediately confirming the constructive overnight setup the analysis described. That open above 754 was the first green light, telling traders the upside framework was in play from the jump.
The session then pressed higher into 755, which the premarket flagged as the next target where heavy interest sits, and the high of $755.58 landed just above that zone — a near-perfect tag of the level before price pulled back. That high-and-fade at 755 was textbook behavior for a heavy-interest zone, and traders working the premarket levels had a clean read on exactly where to manage longs or trim positioning. The downside map also earned its keep — the low of $750.20 sliced briefly through 752 and tested the 751 gamma flip zone the analysis called a key battleground, and price found its footing and recovered rather than breaking down toward 749, which was the next level the framework said would come into play on a 751 failure. That bounce validated the downside structure just as cleanly as the upside. SPY settled at $754.74, closing above the 754 gate and locking in a constructive finish squarely inside the day's upside framework. The VIX dropping 4.55% to 15.75 confirmed the supportive gamma environment that the premarket's call-dominated setup anticipated. Top to bottom, the levels did exactly what the analysis said they would.
Looking Ahead
Thursday's economic calendar is quiet, with no high-impact releases on the docket. After a busy stretch that included CPI, PPI, and two days of Fed Chairman Warsh testimony, the market gets a chance to breathe and let the dust settle. That doesn't mean Thursday is a throwaway session — if anything, a calm calendar gives traders the opportunity to digest everything that's hit the tape this week and position accordingly based on how the inflation picture has developed.
With no major catalysts forcing the hand, price action on Thursday will likely be driven by follow-through from the week's data and any lingering sentiment from Warsh's commentary. If the inflation readings came in friendly and his tone was measured, Thursday becomes a session where momentum traders look to extend gains and bulls feel comfortable adding exposure. If the week's data stirred up uncertainty, expect choppier conditions as the market searches for direction without a fresh catalyst to lean on. Keep your levels tight and let the tape tell the story.
Market Sentiment and Key Levels
The directional bias today leans cautiously bullish, and the bulls made a slightly more convincing case than yesterday without exactly putting the bears on the run. SPY gained 0.39% and closed at $754.74, building on recent momentum in a session that showed some resilience but still lacked the kind of volume that makes a move truly believable. The VIX dropping 4.55% to 15.75 is the standout positive here — volatility at that level signals that fear is genuinely receding, and when the VIX gets this low, it tends to create a runway for equities to continue grinding higher. The issue, as it has been, is that below-average volume keeps the bulls from getting full credit for this advance. Light participation means the move is more fragile than the price action alone would suggest.
Key resistance sits at $755.58, today's session high, and a clean break above that level on meaningfully stronger volume would be a real signal that buyers are in control and could push SPY toward the $758 to $760 range. On the downside, $750.20 — today's intraday low — is the support level to defend. A decisive break below that would put the recent grind higher in jeopardy and open the door to a pullback toward the $747 area. The Nasdaq's 0.62% gain offers some comfort, as tech tends to lead when the broader market has real conviction. Bitcoin closing above $64,921 and gold holding steady suggest risk appetite is stable if not exactly explosive right now. The 10-year yield pulling back modestly to 4.550% takes a little pressure off equities, and any continued softening there would be a meaningful tailwind. The bulls have the edge here, but they need volume to validate it.
Expected Price Action
Thursday's session presents actionable intelligence generated by our AI model, with SPY projected to trade within a range defined by $745 on the downside and $760 as the max upside target. That fifteen-point window signals the market will trend rather than consolidate, and with Wednesday's close at $754.74 sitting in the upper half of the expected move, the bias leans bullish heading into Thursday's open.
The defining level to watch Thursday is $754 — that's the immediate gate where positive gamma builds and the level that needs to hold with conviction to keep the pull toward $757 alive. The $757 level is the single heaviest concentration zone of the day and the primary magnet for price if buyers maintain control. Above $757, the $759 level marks the expected move top with $760 as the major call wall and max upside ceiling — that's where bulls run out of room unless momentum is overwhelming. On the downside, $752 is the first level to respect, and losing it cleanly is where the tone can shift fast — just below there, $751 is the gamma flip and key battleground. A failure at $751 opens $749 as the next decision point, followed by $748 at the bottom of the expected move. A breakdown through $748 puts $745 in play as the model's ultimate floor where a substantial put wall provides the final line of defense. The VIX dropping to 15.75 provides a constructive backdrop for the bulls, but $752 is the line in the sand — if it breaks and $751 fails to hold, expect selling to accelerate quickly toward the downside targets.
Trading Strategy
The VIX dropping 4.55% to 15.75 is a constructive development for the bulls, signaling that the options market is continuing to shed fear premium and that hedging demand is easing further. At 15.75, the VIX is moving deeper into a relaxed zone that historically supports a slow, steady grind higher where dip buyers feel confident stepping in without needing much of a discount. That said, 15.75 is approaching territory where complacency can start to creep in, so traders should stay alert to any sudden spike that could catch lightly hedged portfolios off guard. The mild gain on below-average volume keeps the conviction level moderate at best — quiet sessions without strong institutional participation can unwind faster than they build. Position sizing can be maintained at around 80-85% of normal given the favorable volatility read, but the lack of volume punch means this is not the environment to push toward full exposure.
Long setups remain in play with the market holding a constructive tone. The $750-751 zone serves as near-term support, and any early pullback into that area on stable breadth gives a clean long entry with a first profit target at $753 and a secondary target at $755-756 if buyers follow through with genuine conviction. In a rising market scenario, a sustained hold above $754.74 with expanding volume sets up a momentum long targeting $757 initially and then $760 on the next leg, with stops placed below $750.20 to protect against a failed move. A clean push above the session high of $755.58 on volume expansion would confirm that the uptrend has real legs and invites further upside participation.
Short setups are less compelling given the improved backdrop but remain available for disciplined traders who respect the levels. A failed rally attempt into the $755-756 resistance band on thin volume or deteriorating breadth sets up a fade trade, with initial downside targets at $751 and a deeper move toward $748 if sellers take the wheel. In a falling market scenario, a break back below $750 on elevated selling pressure reopens short entries targeting $748 and then $746, with stops placed above $752.50 to cap the risk. With the VIX at 15.75 and trending lower, keep stop-loss parameters in the 1-1.25% range from entry — a calmer volatility environment still carries reversal risk, and the disciplined trader respects defined levels rather than overstaying any position.
Model’s Projected Range
SPY's projected maximum range for Thursday is $746 to $757, with the Call side dominating in an expanding band that suggests trending price action with intermittent chop. Thursday brings no economic news due out so the market will trade on technicals. SPY closed at $754.74, up 0.39%, after trading in a range from a low of $750.20 to a high of $755.58 on an open of $754.24, a relatively tight but constructive session that kept buyers in control throughout the day. SPY remains in the $750 to $755 range that has defined recent trading, with the broader macro backdrop continuing to be shaped by ongoing trade policy uncertainty and its ripple effects across risk assets. If our model's first resistance at $755 breaks, price targets $757 next, while a failure of the first support at $750 opens the door toward $749, and if that level gives way there is little to keep price from falling toward $746. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 with SPY well above structural support. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $755, $757, $759, $760, while support rests at $750, $749, $746, $745. With SPY closing at $754.74 and pressing up against near-term resistance, we favor shorting rallies near $755 until price can clearly break and hold above that level. Bitcoin was essentially flat, slipping just 0.05% to close above $64,921, while MAG stocks put in a mostly green day led by Apple surging up to 4.01%, with Tesla the lone laggard sliding down to -0.43% — the tech leadership strength here supports the broader rally even with crypto on the sidelines. The VIX closed at 15.75, down 4.55%, suggesting a meaningful reduction in fear as traders grow more comfortable with current price levels and near-term risk. SPY closed just below the upper line of the trend channel, with structural support near $750 keeping the broader uptrend intact and bias tilted toward the bulls as long as that floor holds.
Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast
Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended in a Bullish Trending Market State with SPY closing at $754.74. Since SPY closed above MSI resistance, that former resistance level at $754.07 now becomes support heading into Thursday, with the next level of significance at $753.24 acting as the deeper support shelf. The MSI width of $0.83 is narrow, and that tells you right away this market is consolidating rather than trending with conviction. Extended targets were not printing at the close, which confirms the muted, low-energy tone that defined the back half of the session. Extended targets did print during premarket and the AM session, visible above the upper MSI line, and that enthusiasm drove an early push higher before eventually fading.
The MSI rescaled higher overnight with extended targets printing above, which saw SPY rally on favorable PPI data and arrive at MSI resistance by the open with extended targets still showing above. SPY shot higher into major resistance near $755 with the MSI holding steady from premarket levels. Extended targets then stopped printing and the MSI began a series of rapid rescalings lower into a bearish state. And while extended targets were printing below during that stretch, SPY kept falling. But the range of the bearish state was telling because it remained quite narrow on every rescale, suggesting the sellers lacked real conviction. As soon as extended targets stopped printing below, price reversed and the MSI rescaled back into a ranging state before returning to the bullish state from the open with extended targets above. That final push carried SPY to close up on the day, with the MSI now forecasting likely sideways to possibly higher action on Thursday. The narrow bullish structure suggests consolidation rather than strong trending, though the bulls are likely to maintain pressure to the upside. Any failure of MSI support is likely to see SPY retest the day's lows. MSI support is $753.24 with resistance at $754.07.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
Tuesday we stated, "Bulls want to see price hold above MSI support at $751.7 overnight and use it as a launching pad to press SPY toward and through MSI resistance at $752.71," and added, "If PPI comes in cooler than expected, bulls get another catalyst and the narrow MSI could snap higher with the MSI rescaling upward and extended targets printing above, creating a clean long setup buying dips to $751.7 MSI support and targeting $752.71 and beyond," while also noting, "If the MSI drops into a ranging or bearish state, avoid forcing longs and wait for either a failed breakdown at support or a confirmed rescale before committing."
That read proved accurate. PPI data came in favorable and the MSI rescaled higher overnight with extended targets printing above, setting up a clean bullish framework before the open. SPY opened at $754.24 and bulls had immediate momentum, with the MSI holding its overnight structure and extended targets visible above as SPY pushed toward major resistance near $755, printing a session high of $755.58. That was the easy part of the day. From there the session got complicated. Extended targets above stopped printing and the MSI began a series of rapid rescalings lower into a bearish state with extended targets printing below, putting sellers in control and SPY pulling back through the range. The key observation for sharp traders was how narrow each rescale of the bearish state remained, which was the MSI quietly telegraphing that the sellers were not operating with real conviction despite the aggressive-looking rescalings.
That read proved correct when extended targets below stopped printing, price reversed hard, and the MSI rescaled back into a ranging state before snapping right back into the Bullish Trending state it had established from the open. Extended targets printed above again on that recovery and SPY closed at $754.74, up 0.39% on below-average volume of 36.74 million shares. The VIX dropped 4.55% to 15.75, reflecting a meaningful reduction in fear that was consistent with the bullish close. The core setups were buying dips to MSI support as price recovered off the lows during the afternoon reversal and targeting MSI resistance at the upper boundary, with the resistance-turned-support flip at $754.07 offering additional confirmation for longs as SPY closed above that level. At minimum it was a four-for-four session for traders following the framework. It was a volatile but readable day with substantial setups, all identified through proper context, patience, and flexibility while leveraging the MSI, premarket levels, and market structure rather than forcing trades. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Thursday has light economic news so the market is likely to move more sideways to up than trend given the Bullish Trending state at the close. With no high-impact catalysts on the calendar, Thursday's price action will be driven primarily by market structure and whatever momentum carries over from Wednesday's session. That puts the MSI front and center as the primary guide, and traders should let it do the work rather than forcing a directional bias.
Heading into Thursday the MSI closed in a narrow Bullish Trending state with a $0.83 spread. That narrow width is the key detail. It tells you the bulls have nominal control but not dominant control, and that this market is coiling rather than trending with conviction. The absence of extended targets at the close reinforces the softer bullish read. The herd was not fully participating in Wednesday's close, and without extended targets printing, Thursday may look a lot like today did at points, with price grinding and requiring patience before clean setups emerge. That said, the fact that SPY closed above prior MSI resistance at $754.07 is a constructive development, and that level now acts as support heading into Thursday.
Bulls want to see price hold above $754.07 overnight and use it as a launching pad to press SPY toward and through MSI resistance at $754.07 and beyond. If bulls can push through with conviction and the MSI rescales higher into a wider Bullish Trending state with extended targets printing above, that would signal a meaningful acceleration and give bulls the momentum to target the session high of $755.58 and potentially beyond. Bears want to see $753.24 MSI support fail. A clean break below $753.24 with the MSI rescaling into a ranging or bearish state would shift control back to the sellers and put the session low of $750.20 back in play. Any extended targets printing below in that scenario would confirm the sellers have stepped on the gas and deeper levels come into view.
Within the session, the strategy is straightforward. Buy dips to $754.07 and target levels above, and if the MSI rescales into a wider Bullish Trending state with extended targets printing above, that is the confirmation to press longs with greater confidence. If price slips back below $754.07 and retests $753.24, that deeper support becomes the line in the sand. A hold there with a failed breakdown and subsequent MSI rescale higher is still a buyable setup. If the MSI drops into a ranging or bearish state, avoid forcing longs and wait for either a failed breakdown at support or a confirmed rescale before committing. The narrow MSI width means a break in either direction is entirely possible, so staying reactive to what the MSI is telling you in real time is more valuable than any preconceived directional bet.
The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 and failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups. Remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States unless a clear failed breakout or breakdown presents itself, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven't yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.
Dealer Positioning Analysis
Dealers are selling SPY $755 to $770 and higher strike Calls, indicating the Dealers' belief that prices will drift sideways to modestly higher on Thursday rather than making any aggressive move. The ceiling for Thursday appears to be $760, where a major wall of resistance spanning $755 to $760 is likely to slow any ascent. Notably, Dealers are selling a very small quantity of ATM Puts at $754, and Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $754, though the quantity is small enough that it doesn't carry significant weight in the broader picture. To the downside, Dealers are buying $753 to $690 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying moderate concern that prices could move lower. With material support thin below $750 and a rapid drop to $745 possible if that level gives way, expect choppy, range-bound price action for most of the session absent an external catalyst. Below $750 is bearish and above $753 is bullish, but the resistance wall from $755 to $760 is the zone to watch. Dealer positioning is unchanged at neutral/slightly bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $756 to $778 and higher strike Calls while buying $752 to $755 Calls, indicating the Dealers' desire to participate in any continuation of this week's rally, though their Call buying remains small in size, reflecting cautious optimism at best. The ceiling for the week appears to be $760. To the downside, Dealers are buying $751 to $645 and lower strike Puts in a 5:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying significant concern that prices could move decidedly lower, as Dealers remain heavily hedged in the event conditions deteriorate. Large walls at $755 and $757 will act as key resistance levels, while major support sits at $748 and $745. We recommend traders remain bullish above $751 but below $750 we are bearish. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged at bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.
Recommendation for Traders
SPY closed at $754.74 with VIX dropping 4.55% to 15.75, keeping the bias firmly tilted toward longs. Watch $750.20 as key support — a break below opens the door to $748. Favor longs on dips toward that level with stops just beneath it, targeting a push toward $756 and beyond.
Keep position sizes in check given below-average volume — don't chase extended moves higher. Review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET for any changes in the model's outlook and Dealer Positioning.
Good luck and good trading!
