Market Insights: Friday, July 10th, 2026

Market Overview
Stocks wrapped up a winning week on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both logging weekly gains after a turbulent stretch. The Dow added 0.3%, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.3% as investors kept a close eye on ceasefire talks between the US and Iran. The big headline of the day was SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut — shares of the Nvidia supplier opened at $170, a pop of over 14% from its IPO price, and the company raised $26.5 billion in its US share offering, making it the largest US listing ever by a foreign company.

Oil eased as Middle East tensions stayed complicated — President Trump indicated he believed the ceasefire had ended, even as talks continued. West Texas Intermediate hovered near $71 a barrel and Brent traded above $76. On the corporate front, Delta Air Lines fell after reporting substantial fuel costs in Q2, though the airline still beat earnings estimates and reinstated its full-year guidance, with its premium business helping to cushion the blow.

SPY Performance
SPY opened at $752.05 and picked up right where yesterday left off, continuing the recovery off the two-day losing streak with another day of measured upside. Bulls kept the pressure on through the session, pushing the ETF to a high of $755.42 before the tape softened slightly into the close. The low of $748.10 was tagged early and quickly abandoned, as sellers once again failed to find any real traction — a sign that the path of least resistance is still pointing higher for now.

SPY closed at $754.94, up 0.43%, extending the winning streak to back-to-back sessions and quietly building on what looked like a pivotal bounce. Volume came in at 36.60 million shares, once again running below average, so the conviction behind this move remains something to watch. Steady, low-volume grinds higher can work — until they don't — and the bulls will eventually need to show up in size to confirm this isn't just a slow drift into resistance. The VIX fell another 5.11% to close at 15.03, continuing to bleed off the anxiety that spiked earlier in the week. Two consecutive sessions of rising prices and falling volatility is a constructive combination, but with volume staying subdued, the market is still in a show-me phase. The next session will matter quite a bit — follow-through on light volume is one thing, but a real expansion of participation would go a long way toward turning this from a bounce into something more meaningful.

Major Indices Performance
The Nasdaq and the Dow came in tied at the top, both posting a modest 0.29% gain on the day — a far cry from the kind of broad-based leadership the market showed in the prior session. Growth stocks didn't have enough fuel behind them to separate from the blue-chip names, and that kind of compressed performance across indices suggests the market was largely treading water rather than making a statement in either direction. The S&P 500 also finished slightly higher, though the overall tone was more cautious than convincing.

The Russell 2000 was the notable laggard, sliding 0.42% in a session that showed small-caps continuing to struggle. After the encouraging participation small-caps showed in the prior day's rally, giving it back this quickly is a reminder of just how fragile that group remains. These names are highly sensitive to rate conditions, and with the 10-year yield still sitting above the 4.5% threshold that makes equity investors uncomfortable, it's no surprise the more rate-sensitive corners of the market are having trouble gaining traction. The breadth story that looked promising a session ago got a little murkier today, and until small-caps can string together a few consecutive positive days, it's hard to get too excited about the sustainability of any near-term bounce.

Notable Stock Movements
Meta did it again, this time surging as much as 5.97% to headline what was another mostly green session for the Magnificent Seven. That's a significant move for a stock of Meta's size, and back-to-back performances like this don't happen by accident. The market is clearly rewarding Meta's positioning around AI-driven advertising and its continued ability to monetize engagement at scale. When the largest names in tech start stacking gains like this, it usually tells you something real is happening beneath the surface — whether that's institutional accumulation, options flow, or a genuine re-rating of the growth outlook.

The broader Magnificent Seven picture was mostly constructive, though not without its cracks. Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon all finished in the red, with Amazon dragging the low end down to -0.69%. That's a bit of an uneven result — three of the seven in the red means the headline "mostly green" story is doing some real heavy lifting. Amazon slipping is worth flagging, given that its cloud and AI narratives should theoretically benefit from the same tailwinds lifting Meta. Alphabet finding itself on the wrong side again, much like yesterday's session, suggests the market is still working through competitive concerns around its AI positioning.

The group's mixed-but-leaning-green performance fits the cautious optimism showing up across the broader market today. With the Russell 2000 slipping into the red and the Nasdaq grinding out only a modest 0.29% gain, this wasn't a session where risk appetite was firing on all cylinders. The VIX declining 5.11% to 15.03 kept the backdrop supportive for mega-cap tech, but the concentration of gains in Meta rather than a broad-based rally within the group suggests investors are being selective rather than buying the cohort wholesale.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil slipped again today, dipping 0.65% to close at $71.61, but that's a minor pullback in the context of what's been a strong run well above $70. The commodity continues to defy longer-term expectations, and the same forces that carried it here — geopolitical tensions and supply tightness — haven't meaningfully changed. A sustained presence above $70 keeps the inflationary pressure conversation relevant, and if energy prices don't cool off, the Fed's path to easier policy gets that much more complicated.

Gold gave back a little ground today, slipping 0.38% to close at $4,115, a modest retreat after yesterday's strong recovery. One down day after a convincing bounce doesn't change the story here — the fundamental backdrop of central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and an unclear rate path is still firmly in place. The long-term setup remains constructive, and the bulls have shown they're willing to step in on weakness.

Bitcoin added to its recent gains, climbing 0.88% to close above $63,747 and continuing to hold comfortably above the $60,000 level. The move is measured but consistent, and the fact that the crypto is grinding higher rather than giving back ground after recent strength is an encouraging sign. As long as that $60,000 floor continues to hold with room to spare, the intermediate-term outlook for crypto stays solidly in the bulls' corner.

Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 0.66% on the session, closing at 4.570% and pushing further above that critical 4.5% threshold. Yesterday's dip looked like it might offer some breathing room, but today's move higher erases that hope and confirms yields are not retreating without a fight. The bond market is sending a clear message — the pressure on equities is not easing, and in fact it's building incrementally with each session that holds above 4.5%.

Within the framework, 4.570% keeps us firmly in the danger zone where headwinds for stocks are real and persistent. It's not a catastrophic level, but it's also not a level that equity bulls can dismiss. The next major line in the sand is 4.8%, where history shows selling in equities becomes more sustained and harder to reverse. Beyond that, a move above 5% would represent a significant shift in the risk environment, and 5.2% carries the gravest implication of all — a correction of 20% or more. None of those levels are imminent, but the direction of travel right now is not encouraging.

What makes today's reading more concerning than yesterday's is the lack of a catalyst to turn yields around. Bulls need yields to convincingly break back below 4.5% and sustain that move toward the 4.3% range before the bond market stops acting as a ceiling on equity enthusiasm. Until that happens, any stock rally is being fought against a persistent headwind. The key watch in the sessions ahead is whether 4.570% becomes a floor or a launching pad — because if yields continue drifting toward 4.7% and beyond, the conversation about market risk gets considerably more serious.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Friday's forecast called for SPY to trade within a fourteen-point range, with $740 as the model's max downside floor and $754 as the max upside target. The bias heading into the session was bullish, supported by a call-dominated options structure and Thursday's close at $751.71 sitting near the top of the projected range. The model identified $752 as the next meaningful decision point above price, with a clean hold there keeping the door open toward $753 and ultimately $754. The heaviest call concentration sat around $750, which was expected to flip from resistance to support and serve as the critical line in the sand for bulls. To the downside, $748 was flagged as the first key level to defend — that was the gamma flip level buyers spent Thursday reclaiming, and losing it would signal serious trouble. Further downside levels were mapped at $746, $745, $744, and $742, with $740 as the ultimate floor.

The trading strategy leaned toward long setups, with the $750-751 zone identified as near-term technical support following the prior session's close near highs. Entries in that range carried an initial profit target of $754-755 and a secondary leg toward $758-760 if volume and breadth confirmed the move. Stops on longs were placed below $748. Short setups were worth monitoring near the $754-755 zone on a failed breakout with weak internals, targeting $750-751 initially and $747-748 on continued selling. The strategy recommended expanding position sizing to 85-90% of normal given the improved risk backdrop, while maintaining stop-loss parameters in the 1.5-2% range and staying patient for defined levels rather than chasing intraday noise.

Market Performance vs. Forecast
Friday's session delivered a strong validation of the framework's directional bias and key structural levels. SPY opened at $752.05, right on top of the $752 decision point the model had flagged as the critical level separating consolidation from continuation — and buyers made their intentions clear immediately, with price pushing higher from the open. The model's bullish bias heading into Friday proved entirely correct, as SPY never meaningfully threatened the $748 stop level and instead drove toward the upside targets the forecast had outlined.

The long setup the forecast identified performed well. Entries in the $750-751 zone carried an initial profit target of $754-755 on the first leg, and Friday delivered exactly that move, with SPY closing at $754.94 and tagging a high of $755.42 — essentially a textbook print on the first profit target the model had outlined. The $750 level, which the forecast identified as the critical line in the sand for bulls and the point where call concentration was heaviest, held throughout the session with the low of $748.10 staying well within the model's projected floor. Risk management protocols were never seriously tested on the long side, as the trade had room to develop cleanly toward both targets.

The session did push slightly above the $754 max upside target the model had projected, with the high of $755.42 briefly exceeding the range cap — the model does not account for unpredictable intraday catalysts that can produce outsized moves beyond the base case scenario, and extraordinary events can occasionally push price through projected ceilings. What matters is that the directional call, the key support levels, and the primary profit targets all held with precision. The VIX dropping 5.11% to 15.03 confirmed the declining volatility environment the framework had anticipated, rewarding the recommended expansion in position sizing. The model defined the structure, identified the gamma flip trigger at $748, and outlined the exact trade that played out — that's the framework operating at a high level, and it continues to provide the roadmap traders need to stay on the right side of price action.

Premarket Analysis Summary
The premarket analysis posted at market open identified SPY spot at $751.31 sitting in a call-dominated environment, extending the weekly recovery and pushing back toward the highs. The defining gate above was set at $753 — described as the major concentration zone and the single level that needed to be cleared with conviction to unlock the next leg higher. Above that, $755 was flagged as the next target where additional heavy interest sat, with $756 as the following decision point, $758 marking the expected move top, and $760 serving as the major call wall and max upside target. Strong positive gamma stacked between $752 and $756 was expected to provide a stabilizing tailwind throughout the session. On the downside, $750 was identified as the first key pivot just below spot — a major round-number level sitting in negative gamma territory where a clean loss would open the door lower. Below that, $749 was flagged as the gamma flip level where selling could accelerate, with $748 as the next decision point, $746 as the point of last hope near the bottom of the expected move, and $745 serving as the max downside target backed by a substantial put wall.

The actual session delivered a mixed but ultimately bullish resolution that engaged both sides of the framework before finishing in positive territory. SPY opened at $752.05, immediately above the $750 pivot and knocking on the $753 gate right from the open. Price pushed through to a session high of $755.42, clearing the $753 gate decisively and reaching all the way to the $755 heavy interest target the analysis had outlined. However, the session also tested the downside framework, with the low of $748.10 briefly breaching the $749 gamma flip level and tagging the $748 decision point before buyers reasserted control. The close at $754.94 landed just below the $755 level, a strong finish that confirmed the upside framework and validated the $753 gate as the key inflection point. The gain of 0.43% alongside VIX dropping 5.11% to 15.03 were fully consistent with the call-dominated environment the premarket analysis had described heading into the weekend.

Validation of the Analysis
Today's session was a textbook confirmation of the premarket framework, with SPY navigating the named levels with impressive precision and delivering clean trading opportunities on both sides of the key pivots. The analysis opened with spot at 751.31 and immediately identified 753 as the defining gate — the major concentration zone that needed to be cleared with conviction to unlock the next leg higher toward 755. SPY opened at $752.05, stepping right into that tension zone from the first print, and the early session resolved exactly as mapped. Price pushed through the 753 gate and drove higher, eventually tagging a session high of $755.42 — clearing the 755 target the premarket flagged as the next heavy interest zone above 753 with virtually no overshoot. That's a clean two-plus handle run from the gate straight into the primary upside target, playing out almost to the tick.

The downside framework proved equally valuable. The analysis warned that 750 was the first major round-number pivot to watch and that losing it cleanly opened the door lower, with 749 as the gamma flip level where selling could accelerate and 748 as the next decision point. SPY's session low of $748.10 tested that corridor precisely — dipping through 750, through 749, and tagging 748 almost to the dollar before buyers stepped back in. That's the exact acceleration scenario the premarket described for a 749 failure, and the 748 decision point held to the penny, confirming the floor the framework outlined overnight. SPY closed at $754.94, settling squarely in the call-dominated zone between 753 and 755 the analysis identified as the path of least resistance, while the VIX dropping 5.11% to 15.03 reinforced the positive gamma environment described before the open. From the 753 gate clear to the 755 target and the precise flush into the 748 decision point, today's full range was drawn on the map before the opening bell rang.

Looking Ahead
Monday brings ISM Services PMI, and this one matters. The services sector is the backbone of the U.S. economy, and with the market still trying to gauge where the Fed stands on rate cuts, a hot or cold reading here can move the tape in a hurry. A print above 55 signals expansion and could reignite inflation concerns, putting pressure on rate-sensitive names. A softer number, on the other hand, gives the bulls something to work with as it supports the case for easier policy down the road.

Heading into Monday, the key is to know your levels before the number hits. ISM Services drops early in the session, so the open could get volatile fast depending on the read. Position sizing matters here — don't get caught oversized into a binary data point. Let the initial reaction play out, find where price wants to stabilize, and then look for your entry. The broader trend is your context, but ISM will set the tone for how the week gets started.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels
The directional bias today leans bullish, though it comes with a few caveats worth keeping in mind. SPY gained 0.43% and closed at $754.94, just below the session high of $755.42, which tells you buyers held firm through most of the day and didn't surrender much ground into the close. The VIX dropping 5.11% to 15.03 is a meaningful confirmation — fear continues to drain out of the market, and options traders are not rushing to buy protection. The concern, as it was yesterday, is participation. Volume came in at 36.60M, once again below average, meaning this push higher is happening without broad institutional conviction behind it. Thin-volume rallies can persist, but they're also easier to reverse when real selling shows up.

Key resistance sits at $755.42, the intraday high from today's session. A clean, volume-backed move above that level would signal the bulls are ready to push into new territory and could set up a run toward the $760 area. On the downside, $748.10 — today's session low — is the line the bears need to reclaim to shift momentum back in their favor. A break below that with follow-through selling would put the recent rally in serious question and invite a deeper pullback. The Russell 2000 slipping 0.42% while large-caps grind higher is a subtle warning that the rally lacks full market-wide participation, and that breadth divergence is worth monitoring. Bitcoin ticking up 0.88% to close above $63,747 and gold easing just 0.38% to $4,115 suggest risk appetite remains intact but is not exactly euphoric. Yields nudging slightly higher remain a quiet headwind for valuations, though not enough to derail the tape today. The bulls have the edge, but $755.42 is the level that separates a continued grind higher from a stall right at the doorstep.

Expected Price Action
Monday's session presents actionable intelligence generated by our AI model, with SPY projected to trade within a range anchored by $745 on the downside and $760 as the max upside target. That fifteen-point window signals the market will trend rather than consolidate, and with Friday's close at $754.94 sitting near the top of the expected move, the bias leans bullish given the call-dominated environment and the strong positive gamma stacked between $752 and $756.

The defining level heading into Monday is $753, which the model identifies as the single heaviest concentration zone and the major gate that must be cleared and held with conviction to unlock the next leg higher. A sustained hold above $753 opens the door toward $755, where additional heavy interest sits, followed by $756 as the next decision point. Above that, $758 marks the expected move top with $760 standing as the major call wall and max upside target. On the downside, $750 is the first level to watch — that's the major round-number pivot sitting just below Friday's close, and it sits in a negative gamma zone, meaning a clean loss of that level opens the door lower in a hurry. Below $750, $749 is the critical gamma flip level and a key battleground where selling could accelerate meaningfully. A break of $749 puts $748 in play as the next decision point, followed by $746 as the point of last hope near the bottom of the expected move. A failure at $746 exposes $745 as the model's ultimate floor, where a substantial put wall is stacked. With VIX cooling to 15.03, the structure remains firmly call-dominated — the bulls' primary job Monday is defending $750 on any dip, and any failure to hold that level should be treated as an early warning that the session is testing the lower half of this wide trending range.

Trading Strategy
The VIX dropping 5.11% to 15.03 is a constructive signal, confirming that options markets are continuing to unwind near-term fear and that hedging demand remains subdued. At 15.03, the VIX is sitting in genuinely relaxed territory, and that low volatility read supports a bullish bias heading into the next session. The improving risk backdrop justifies expanding position sizing toward 85-90% of normal, as the conditions favor adding exposure on quality setups. That said, below-average volume on the session tempers the enthusiasm — lighter activity means the move hasn't been fully confirmed by institutional participation, so stay disciplined with levels and don't let a calm tape lull you into oversizing.

Long setups are well-supported here, with the $750-751 zone acting as near-term technical support following the session's close near the upper half of the range. Entries in the $750-751 area carry an initial profit target of $754-755, with a secondary leg toward $758-760 if volume expands and breadth confirms. Stops on longs belong below $748 — losing that level would signal the session's constructive close was a false flag rather than a genuine springboard. In a rising market scenario, a clean hold above $754 on the open with improving internals sets up a momentum add, with targets at $757-758 on the first leg and $760 if institutional buyers show up with real conviction. Trail stops up to $750.50 as the trade develops to protect gains and keep a winner from becoming a problem.

Short setups are worth watching near the $755-757 zone, where price would be pressing into overhead resistance. A failed test of that area on weak internals or deteriorating breadth sets up a clean fade, with initial downside targets at $751-752 and a deeper move toward $748 if selling accelerates. In a declining market scenario, a clean break and hold below $750 reopens short entries with targets at $747, stops placed above $752.50. With the VIX at 15.03 and still deflating, keep stop-loss parameters in the 1.5-2% range from entry, stay patient for the level rather than chasing noise, and remember that low volatility environments can snap back hard against aggressive shorts — the edge belongs to the disciplined trader, not the reactive one.

Model’s Projected Range
SPY's projected maximum range for Monday is $750 to $760, with the Call side dominating in an expanding band that suggests trending price action with intermittent chop. Monday brings no significant economic data so the market will trade on technicals and momentum from Friday's strong rally. SPY had a solid session Friday, opening at $752.05, dipping to a low of $748.10 before pushing to a high of $755.42 and closing at $754.94, up 0.43% on the day, with volume coming in below average. SPY remains above our model's first resistance at $755, with the Call Dominated gamma condition and positive Net GEX of 159K suggesting dealers are positioned for further upside. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 with SPY well above structural support. As long as price holds above key structural levels, this remains a broader dip-buying environment. If our first resistance at $759 breaks, price targets $760, while a break of first support at $754 would target $751. Should $750 fail to hold, there is little to keep price from falling toward $746. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $755, $759, $760 and $762 with support at $754, $751, $750 and $746. Bitcoin closed up 0.88% above $63,747 and MAG stocks were mostly green led by Meta surging up to 5.97%, with Amazon the lone notable laggard down to -0.69% — the broad strength across crypto and the majority of the Mag names supports the overall bullish tone heading into Monday. The VIX closed at 15.03, down 5.11%, suggesting a significant reduction in fear as the market digested Friday's rally with confidence. SPY closed just below the upper line of the trend channel, with structural support anchored well below current price levels, keeping the broader uptrend structure intact.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended in a Bullish Trending Market State with SPY closing at $754.94. Since SPY closed inside the MSI range, support remains at $754.41 and resistance remains at $755.03 heading into Monday. Extended targets were printing above at the close, implying the current rally will continue on Monday. Extended targets were active during premarket printing above as price pushed steadily higher from $747, and again during the AM session as the rally accelerated with rapid rescalings higher driving price from $750 to new highs above $755 by midday. The MSI rescaled higher overnight opening the day in a wide bullish state with extended targets above printing through the premarket session pushing price steadily higher from $747. At the open a sharp dip to $750 was quickly bought and the MSI began a series of rapid rescalings higher with extended targets above driving price from $750 to new highs above $755 by midday. The MSI settled into a narrow Bullish Trending state with a $0.62 spread into the close with SPY holding well above MSI resistance turned support. With extended targets printing at the close the MSI is forecasting a strong continuation higher on Monday with the bulls maintaining control and extended targets above suggesting upside momentum will persist. MSI support is $754.41 with resistance at $755.03.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
Wednesday we stated the MSI was forecasting sideways consolidation and that the narrow ranging state suggested price would remain range bound absent a catalyst. Friday delivered the catalyst — a broad-based rally that broke decisively through the range with the MSI rescaling into a Bullish Trending state early in the session. SPY opened at $752.05 and immediately dipped to a session low of $748.10 where buyers stepped in aggressively. The MSI confirmed the reversal with a series of rapid rescalings higher and extended targets printing above, giving traders a clean long entry off the lows. Price rallied steadily from $748.10 to a session high of $755.42, a move of over seven points that the MSI signaled in real time through its rescaling pattern and extended target prints. The close at $754.94 held near the highs, confirming the bulls were in full control heading into the weekend. The VIX dropped 5.11% to 15.03, a significant de-escalation in fear that aligns with the risk-on tone. At minimum it was a three-for-three session for traders following the framework. It was an easy day to read and execute with substantial setups, all identified through proper context, patience, and flexibility while leveraging the MSI, premarket levels, and market structure rather than forcing trades. The MSI continues to prove its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Monday brings no significant economic data so the market will trade on technicals and sentiment. With extended targets printing above at the close and the MSI in a narrow Bullish Trending state, the forecast calls for a strong continuation higher on Monday with the bulls maintaining control. The narrow $0.62 spread suggests the MSI is likely to rescale on Monday, and given the bullish momentum and extended targets above, any rescale is more likely to be higher than lower.
Bulls want to see overnight price hold above $754.41 MSI support and use that level as a launching pad to press SPY toward new highs above $755.03 and beyond. If the MSI rescales higher with extended targets continuing to print above, the rally has room to run and traders should stay with the trend. Bears want to see $754.41 support fail and the MSI rescale into a Ranging or Bearish Trending state. If extended targets stop printing above and the MSI rescales lower, it would signal the rally is losing steam and a pullback toward $750 becomes probable. Any dip that holds above $754.41 and sees the MSI maintain its Bullish Trending state is a buying opportunity, while a clean break below $754.41 with the MSI shifting lower would warrant caution.
The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640 and failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups. Remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States unless a clear failed breakout or breakdown presents itself, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven't yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Dealers are selling SPY $757 to $771 and higher strike Calls, indicating the Dealers see a ceiling above for Monday. The ceiling for Monday appears to be $759. To the downside, Dealers are buying $752 to $688 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying moderate concern that prices could move lower. Notably, Dealers are selling ATM Puts in small size at $753 to $756, indicating their belief that prices will continue to rise Monday. Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $753. They remain hedged implying limited upside conviction. Below $752 is bearish and above $754 is bullish. Should SPY fail to hold $753, the zone from $747 to $752 expect indecisive price action with false breakouts in both directions. Dealer positioning is neutral/slightly bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $757 to $778 and higher strike Calls for the week ahead. The ceiling for the week appears to be $762. To the downside, Dealers are buying $750 to $645 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they're selling, displaying moderate concern that prices could move lower. Dealers are selling ATM Puts broadly at $751 to $756, indicating the strongest bullish conviction we have seen in weeks. Dealers do not sell ATM Puts unless they believe there is a floor in the market at $751. There is a clear floor at $751 with major resistance at $757 to $762. Dealers appear fully committed to higher prices and are positioned to participate in a continuation of the current rally, setting up the market for further upside into mid-July. Remain bullish above $751 but below $749 and especially $745 we are bearish. For the week Dealer positioning has improved from bearish to neutral/bullish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders
SPY closed at $754.94 with VIX dropping 5.11% to 15.03, keeping the bias tilted toward longs. Hold above $750 and dips are buyable — that's your line in the sand, with stops below $748.10. Don't chase strength at the highs; let price come to you.

Keep size in check with yields still elevated above 4.5% and volume running below average. Review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET for any changes in the model's outlook and Dealer Positioning.

Good luck and good trading!