Market Insights: Thursday, July 10th, 2025

Market Overview

Stocks pushed to new all-time highs Thursday, buoyed by continued enthusiasm in tech and crypto assets, with Nvidia making headlines as it closed above a $4 trillion market cap for the first time ever. The S&P 500 ticked up 0.3% to finish at a record 6,280.46, while the Nasdaq inched higher by 0.1%, logging its second consecutive record close. The Dow gained 0.4%, building on recent strength as investors shrugged off intensifying trade rhetoric from the Trump administration.

Bitcoin surged past $113,000, setting a fresh all-time high as risk appetite stayed robust despite geopolitical uncertainty. The upbeat mood persisted even after President Trump ratcheted up his tariff threats, this time singling out Brazil with proposed 50% levies. Trump also revealed he sent 22 formal notices to world leaders this week, reiterating his August 1 deadline for the new tariffs to take effect unless trade agreements are reached. Investors largely looked past these threats, banking instead on strong earnings and tech momentum.

Delta Airlines jumped 12% after kicking off Q2 earnings season with a better-than-expected report and an upbeat outlook, citing increased clarity on international trade. Nvidia’s modest gains carried extra weight, as it became the first company to officially close above the $4 trillion valuation milestone. Market participants now shift focus toward potential deals with trading partners like India and the EU, though fresh tariff threats aimed at BRICS members cast doubt over quick resolutions. Weekly jobless claims also declined slightly to 227,000, adding to the case for labor market stability as investors weigh the odds of a near-term Fed rate cut.

SPY Performance

SPY climbed 0.30% on Thursday to settle at $625.94, extending its winning streak as bullish sentiment held firm. The ETF opened at $622.77 and traded as high as $626.87 before easing slightly into the close. Volume was moderate at 53.58 million shares, just below average. The move confirms the continuation of SPY’s uptrend, with buyers defending key support levels and pushing to fresh highs despite choppy afternoon action. The close just below resistance suggests the bulls remain in control heading into Friday.

Major Indices Performance

The Russell 2000 outperformed with a 0.54% gain, continuing its rebound as small caps found steady footing. The Dow rose 0.43%, benefiting from renewed strength in financials and industrials, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.3% to notch a new record close. The Nasdaq edged up just 0.09%, dragged slightly by weakness in a few large-cap tech names. Despite trade tensions and conflicting signals on macro data, investor optimism remains intact, particularly around AI and the start of earnings season. Sector leadership was mixed, with strength in cyclical names offsetting some tech underperformance.

Notable Stock Movements

The Magnificent Seven posted mixed results Thursday, with Netflix leading declines, dropping nearly 3% amid weak sentiment ahead of next week’s earnings. Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon also closed in the red, though losses were modest. On the flip side, Tesla surged 4.73%, bouncing sharply to lead the group, while Nvidia continued its steady march upward, closing just above the $4 trillion mark. The mixed action reflects rotation within the tech-heavy cohort, though overall conviction in the AI and mega-cap trade remains strong.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil slumped 2.21% to $66.86, marking a sharp reversal as traders reassess the demand outlook amid renewed trade volatility. The downturn reinforces our model’s ongoing projection for crude to drift toward $60 in the coming months. Gold gained 0.37% to finish at $3,333, rebounding modestly as investors hedged against geopolitical risks. Bitcoin jumped another 2.52%, closing above $113,500 and setting a new record. Crypto continues to benefit from capital rotation into risk assets, even as macro uncertainties linger.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly by 0.35%, closing at 4.355%. While still below the critical 4.5% mark, the slight uptick underscores lingering inflation concerns and continued hesitancy from the Fed. As long as yields remain contained below 4.8%, equity valuations are likely to stay supported. A breach above 5% remains the red line for equities, where a sharp correction of 20% or more becomes a high-probability scenario. For now, yields are holding relatively steady, giving markets breathing room.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Wednesday’s forecast called for SPY to trade between $620 and $626 with a slightly bullish tilt, driven by a Call-dominated structure and resilient technical posture. The model emphasized buying dips near $620 and targeting resistance at $625 and $627, while flagging potential short opportunities on failed rallies at resistance. The strategy leaned on the bullish momentum and projected price action to favor a continued grind higher, with downside support at $620 and $618.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

Thursday’s market followed the script closely. SPY opened at $622.77 and dipped slightly but stayed above the $620 threshold. Buyers emerged quickly, pushing the ETF to an intraday high of $626.87 before modest selling trimmed gains into the close at $625.94. The day’s range of $623.01 to $626.87 remained well within the projected band, and key levels were respected throughout the session. Resistance at $625 acted as a magnet, with price briefly pushing above but failing to close significantly higher. Long setups near support offered clean entries and provided solid exits near resistance. The model’s forecast once again proved highly effective in navigating Thursday’s action.

Premarket Analysis Summary

In Thursday’s premarket analysis posted at 7:39 AM, SPY was trading at $623.99 with a bias level at $623.85. The model anticipated a slow-building upward drift, first targeting $625, then $627.80 with a possible move toward $630 later in the week. On the downside, the report highlighted $620.80, $620, and $618 as areas to look for potential bounces should SPY pull back. The tone was firmly bullish, favoring long entries near support and cautioning that downside trades were less compelling unless driven by surprise news events.

Validation of the Analysis

The market adhered closely to the premarket roadmap. SPY tested just below the bias level in the morning, finding support near $623.01 before rebounding strongly through the $625 level and pressing toward the next upside target. The intraday high of $626.87 came close to the $627.80 projection, confirming the model’s accuracy. No meaningful breakdown occurred, and buyers controlled the session, as forecasted. Traders who followed the long strategy near bias support had multiple profit-taking opportunities into strength. The analysis again proved its value in helping traders stay aligned with the dominant trend.

Looking Ahead

Friday brings no scheduled economic releases, offering a quiet backdrop before next week’s high-impact data, including CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday. With earnings season ramping up and geopolitical risks simmering, markets may consolidate recent gains heading into the weekend. However, any unexpected news, particularly from Washington or abroad, could inject volatility. Traders should remain attentive to headline risk even in the absence of scheduled catalysts.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY closed at $625.94, just shy of key resistance at $627 and comfortably above support at $623. The market remains in a bullish posture, supported by strong breadth and limited downside volatility. Resistance levels to watch are $627, $630, and $635, while support sits at $623, $620, and $615. A break above $627 could open the door to a swift move toward $630 and $635. On the downside, a failure to hold $623 could bring a retest of $620, where dip buyers are likely to step back in. The bullish trend remains intact, though traders should be alert for exhaustion signals near resistance.

Expected Price Action

Our AI model projects SPY to trade between $622 and $631 on Friday, suggesting a slightly wider and more dynamic range. The market bias remains bullish, and the Call-dominated structure points to upward pressure. If SPY holds above $623, we expect a push toward $627 and possibly $630. A clean break above $630 opens up room to run toward $635. Conversely, if SPY breaks below $623, a retest of $620 and even $615 could unfold, though this scenario is less favored absent a new catalyst. This is actionable intelligence: prepare for either rangebound continuation or a breakout scenario into the end of the week.

Trading Strategy

Long trades are favored on dips to $623 or $620 with profit targets at $627 and $630. Should SPY clear $630 with strength, consider trailing stops to ride toward $635. On the short side, look for signs of failed rallies at $627 or $630, especially if momentum fades or volume dries up. Shorts toward $623 and $620 may be viable in those cases. The VIX dipped to 15.79, reflecting a calm backdrop but not an all-clear. Volatility can rise quickly on headline risk, so use tight stops and keep sizing conservative into Friday’s close.

Model’s Projected Range

The model projects SPY’s maximum range for Friday between $622 and $631 with the Call side dominating within a narrow, 4-point range, suggesting choppy price action interspersed with occasional trending moves. Today’s session unfolded largely as expected, with buyers stepping in overnight near $623 and pushing prices higher from the open. The rally extended into the afternoon before profit-taking set in late in the day. SPY pulled back modestly but still closed above $625 at $625.82, reinforcing bullish momentum. The ETF notched another all-time high, fully reversing the recent decline and maintaining the bull trend. Volume was average. Despite lingering tariff uncertainty, the broader uptrend remains valid as long as SPY holds above $585. Heading into Friday, and following two strong trend days with new highs, a brief period of consolidation appears likely. Resistance is noted at $629, $630, and $635, while support sits at $625, $620, $618, and $615. Bulls are expected to defend the $623 level to support another leg higher. A break below $623 could trigger a quick pullback toward $620, with $615 also in play. While SPY continues to grind higher, any major catalyst could prompt a decisive move. Downside risk seems limited unless SPY breaks below $600, which would open the door toward $585 though our model does not currently assign high probability to this scenario. Traders should stay nimble in case of destabilizing headlines. In the absence of a catalyst, dips toward $623 are expected to be bought, with a continued grind higher likely. A failure at $623 opens the door to $620 and possibly $615, levels we would look to buy. Below $615, our stance turns bearish with $600 as the next target. SPY is tracking the lower edge of the redrawn bull channel from the April lows, with strong resistance between $628 and $635 that may limit further upside. A break below $615 would suggest more meaningful downside risk. The market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic data, bond yields, inflation prints, tariffs, and fiscal developments. Meanwhile, the VIX slipped 0.94% to 15.79, reflecting a risk-on tone, though caution remains warranted. At current levels, considering out-of-the-money Calls with 90-day expirations may be prudent as traders prepare for potential volatility ahead. 

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI is currently in a Bullish Trending Market State, with SPY closing above MSI resistance turned support. Extended targets printed into the close and printed both in the am and afternoon sessions. The MSI began a series of rescalings higher around 10:30 am, printing extended targets for much of the morning session. This saw price rally reaching MSI resistance at $625.75. SPY then moved sideways until 1 pm when extended targets began printing once again and SPY continued to push higher, making a new all-time high. Extended targets continued printing virtually continually with a brief break at 3 pm which lead to profit taking and a close just above MSI support. MSI currently implies more follow-through on Friday with higher prices likely, particularly with extended targets printing into the close. Currently MSI support stands at $625.75 and lower at $623.75.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Wednesday, we wrote: “The market appears willing to overlook threats of new tariffs, and it’s likely we see a continuation of the recent parabolic rally,” and added, “We expect the market to grind higher in a slow and orderly fashion.” We also noted, “If bulls can hold $620, a push to $625 is possible Thursday.” With SPY opening above $624, well above MSI resistance turned support but with no extended targets above we held off entering until SPY presented a setup worth trading. That came at 10 a.m. with a less-than-perfect failed breakdown, so we entered long at $623.50. Our first target was the premarket level of $625, which was hit quickly. The MSI then began a series of rapid rescalings higher, signaling strong momentum. From there, we simply waited for price action to move in our favor toward a higher second target. By 11:45 a.m., extended targets stopped printing and SPY began to move sideways. We took off T2 at MSI resistance at $625.75. With our stop at breakeven, all that remained was to wait and see if price would push higher toward the premarket level of $627.80. SPY did climb, with extended targets confirming increased participation from the herd. We held, aiming for that higher level with our remaining 10%. But with price stalling just shy of $627 and a less-than-perfect failed breakout, even with extended targets, we decided the trade had run its course. We exited at $626.50 and called it a day. One and done by 2:30 p.m., thanks to a disciplined daily plan, effective use of MSI for directional clarity and timing, and seamless integration of its levels into our broader model. MSI remains a cornerstone of our consistent trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Friday brings no economic news, and with the market once again at new highs, a day or two of consolidation appears likely. While the market’s focus remains on tariff developments, with related uncertainty continuing to dominate the landscape, it seems willing to overlook the threat of new tariffs, increasing the likelihood of a continued rally. Some caution is still warranted, yet in the absence of a clear macro catalyst, we expect the market to grind higher in a slow and orderly fashion as liquidity continues to drive prices upward. Overnight, if bulls can hold $623, a push to $630 is possible Friday; otherwise, SPY may revisit $620, where buyers are expected to step in. A clean break below $620 could quickly send SPY to $615, and a decisive move below $615 would raise the odds of a deeper pullback toward $600. Until then, we expect buyers to continue supporting dips, barring any unexpected negative headlines from the White House. If key levels hold, the market is likely to resume its steady climb toward $635. Currently, MSI remains in a Bullish Trending Market State, with extended targets printing into the close, an encouraging sign for continued upside. Volume was average today, suggesting the market is likely to maintain its current trajectory favoring buyers. For bears to gain traction, a break below $600 would be necessary, while a close above $625 continues to support the case for a move toward $635. We continue to favor long setups above $615, while short opportunities may emerge above $627 or on failed breakouts or breakdowns below $615, especially when MSI signals weakening conditions. As always, failed moves remain among the highest-probability setups. Stay nimble, avoid trades during Ranging Market States, and ensure full alignment with MSI. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $626 to $640 and higher strike Calls implying the Dealers belief that prices may not move much higher tomorrow and certainly not beyond $630. To the downside, Dealers are buying $625 to $575 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling implying some concern that prices may move lower tomorrow. Dealer positioning has changed from neutral to slightly bearish/neutral.   
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $630 to $650 and higher strike Calls while also selling $620 to $629 Puts indicating the Dealers belief that prices will continue to move higher next week with prices likely to remain above $620. Dealers only sell close to the money Puts when they are confident prices will move higher. To the downside, Dealers are buying $619 to $555 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls/Puts they’re selling, reflecting a slightly bearish/neutral outlook for next week. Dealer positioning has changed from neutral to slightly bearish/neutral. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

With SPY closing just below resistance at $626, traders should stay alert for a breakout or failure at this level. Long setups near $623 or $620 are attractive if support holds, targeting upside levels at $627 and $630. Watch for short setups if SPY stalls near $627 or reverses near $630, particularly if momentum fades. Keep stops tight around key levels and manage position size with the VIX at 15.79, reflecting a low-volatility environment that could reverse suddenly on news. Review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET to stay aligned with the latest model updates and Dealer Positioning.

Good luck and good trading!