Market Insights: Monday, June 6th, 2025

Market Sentiment Recap for Monday, June 6th, 2025

Market Overview

U.S. stocks surged Friday as a cooling of tensions between President Trump and Elon Musk helped restore confidence, and investors responded positively to a better-than-expected jobs report. The S&P 500 punched through the psychological 6,000 barrier, closing at its highest level since February. The index climbed roughly 1.0% following the release of May’s labor report, which showed 139,000 jobs added, beating expectations of 126,000. The Dow jumped over 400 points, or 1.1%, while the Nasdaq rose 1.2%, fueled by strength in big tech. Much of the day's momentum came from a rebound in Tesla, which had been battered the day prior amid the high-profile spat between Trump and Musk. While tensions haven’t disappeared entirely, Musk softened his stance by retracting his threat to withdraw NASA’s Dragon spacecraft access, and the White House tamped down rumors of a “peace call” between the two. Trump, meanwhile, reignited criticism of the Federal Reserve, urging an aggressive rate cut following the jobs beat, saying in a social post, “Go for a full point, Rocket Fuel!” In another development, Trump announced that high-level trade talks with China will take place Monday in London, adding further intrigue to the week ahead. Despite ongoing tariff pressure, the job market’s resilience offered a dose of optimism to end the week, nudging traders back toward risk assets.

SPY Performance

SPY advanced 1.60% on Friday to close at $599.05, climbing from an open of $597.63 and reaching as high as $600.83 during the session. The ETF pulled back slightly before settling just below resistance, but the rally confirmed bullish strength following Thursday's volatile retreat. Trading volume registered at 62.86 million shares, aligning with average participation and suggesting steady buying interest. Friday’s close marked a key technical level, reinforcing support around $595 and shifting attention to whether SPY can sustain momentum toward the $600–$605 resistance zone.

Major Indices Performance

Small caps and large caps shared the spotlight Friday, with the Russell 2000 and SPY both gaining 1.60%, narrowly outperforming the Nasdaq’s 1.20% climb. The Dow rose 1.05%, aided by strength in cyclical and industrial stocks. The broad rally followed a stronger-than-expected jobs report that tempered some recession worries and gave bulls a reason to cheer. A cooling of tensions between Trump and Musk further boosted sentiment, calming markets after Thursday’s political theatrics. With the S&P 500 closing just above the 6,000 mark, traders are now watching for confirmation of a breakout or signs of consolidation in the coming sessions.

Notable Stock Movements

The Magnificent Seven logged a strong session Friday, with Tesla leading the group, rebounding over 2.70% after Thursday’s steep drop. Alphabet and Amazon matched the move with gains above 2.70%, reinforcing strength across tech giants. Nvidia, Apple, and Meta also posted modest gains, while Netflix was the lone decliner, slipping 0.72%. The Tesla reversal helped steady broader sentiment and showed that investors are still willing to buy into temporary dislocations tied to political noise, at least when the broader macro picture remains intact.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil rallied 2.02% to settle at $66.64, but our model still projects a move lower toward $60 and potentially $50 as rate hike concerns and dollar strength return. For now, the oil rebound reflects temporary dollar weakness and traders anticipating some stability in energy demand. Gold declined 1.30% to $3,331 as investor appetite for safe havens waned on the back of upbeat economic data and improving sentiment. Bitcoin climbed 3.90% to close above $104,400, reclaiming its footing after recent volatility. We maintain a long bias in the $83,000–$77,000 range but caution traders not to buy below $77,000 due to continued risk of deeper downside moves.

Treasury Yield Information

Yields surged Friday as bond traders digested the stronger May jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 2.75% to close at 4.514%, breaching the closely-watched 4.5% threshold. This level typically signals trouble for equities, and further upside could begin to pressure valuations, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors. If yields push toward 4.8% or higher, stock market gains could reverse quickly. For now, equity investors seem to be brushing off the rate implications, but this divergence won’t last forever. Monitoring the 10-year closely remains essential as yields near levels that have historically marked turning points for risk assets.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Friday’s forecast called for a wide trading range between $586 and $600, citing the potential for breakout or breakdown action based on the day’s jobs report. The model emphasized a bullish bias above $590 and particularly above $595, targeting upside moves toward $598, $600, and even $605. On the downside, a drop below $590 was expected to target $585 or lower. The strategy favored long trades from support zones, particularly above $590, while cautioning that failed breakouts near $597 or rejections at $600 could lead to quick pullbacks. Volatility was expected to remain elevated, and traders were urged to stay nimble and use tight stops.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

SPY’s price action tracked the forecast with impressive accuracy. The ETF opened at $597.63 and quickly rallied to test and slightly exceed $600, hitting a high of $600.83. The move validated the model’s call for bullish continuation above $595 and a test of resistance near $600. SPY never dipped below $596.86, keeping the session within the projected range and confirming strong support around $595. Long trades triggered early in the session likely performed well, particularly those targeting $598 to $600. As expected, $600 proved to be a ceiling, with SPY unable to hold above it into the close. The forecast correctly anticipated the key inflection points and provided a useful roadmap for navigating the session’s price swings.

Premarket Analysis Summary

In Friday’s premarket analysis posted at 8:19 AM, SPY was trading at $595.71 with a bias level set at $595. The analysis projected that holding above $595 would invite upside moves to $597, then $599, and possibly a push to $600 or even $605. If momentum failed and SPY dipped below $595, $594 was identified as a likely pivot zone, with downside risk toward $592 and $590. The market was expected to react strongly to the jobs report, and traders were advised to watch for continuation or reversals from key levels. The tone was constructive but cautious, urging participants to remain disciplined amid headline-driven volatility.

Validation of the Analysis

The premarket blueprint played out almost perfectly. SPY held firmly above the $595 bias level from the open and marched higher throughout the morning, reaching $600.83 before pulling back slightly. The predicted upside targets at $597 and $599 were hit in sequence, and although $605 remained out of reach, the bullish case was fully realized. There was no significant test of the lower pivot at $594, and the market never approached the downside targets. Traders who followed the premarket strategy likely captured meaningful gains by positioning long above $595. The analysis once again proved to be a reliable guide to intraday direction.

Looking Ahead

The coming week kicks off quietly, with no major economic reports scheduled for Monday or Tuesday. However, traders should prepare for a barrage of market-moving data midweek. Wednesday features Core CPI, Thursday brings Core PPI and weekly Unemployment Claims, and Friday wraps with University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations. With SPY sitting just below key resistance and momentum stalling, these releases could determine whether the market consolidates or extends its rally. The inflation data in particular will be pivotal for Fed expectations and could spark a shift in sentiment across risk assets.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY closed Friday at $599.05, just beneath the critical psychological resistance at $600. The broader market remains bullish, with improving macroeconomic data and calming geopolitical tensions providing support. That said, momentum has slowed, and the next move could determine whether bulls maintain control. Resistance is clearly defined at $600, $603, and $610, while support sits at $594, $590, and $585. A push above $600 may invite a rally toward $610, but failure to break higher could result in consolidation or a pullback toward $590. With SPY just 2.4% below its all-time high, the market is at an inflection point. Traders should monitor reactions at these key levels closely.

Expected Price Action

Our AI model projects a maximum expected range between $595 and $603 for Monday, indicating a narrowing band which will likely produce a slow drift higher rather than strong trending price action. The model remains neutral with a slightly bullish bias due to Call dominance in Dealer positioning. If SPY holds above $595, an upside move toward $600 and $603 is likely, with potential for a breakout to $610 if momentum strengthens. Conversely, if SPY breaks below $595, a pullback toward $590 or even $585 may follow. This is actionable intelligence: bulls control the narrative above $595, but the tone shifts bearish below that level. With no major catalysts Monday, traders should focus on key technical levels and prepare for increased volatility later in the week.

Trading Strategy

Long trades remain preferred above $595, with targets at $600, $603, and $605. Should SPY break above $600, tightening stops is essential as resistance thickens toward $610. On the downside, short trades may be considered on a break below $595, with targets at $590 and $585, or on a failed breakout at $603 or higher. Be cautious of false breakdowns, and avoid initiating shorts unless price action confirms weakness. Volatility is expected to rise this week as economic data returns midweek. The VIX fell 9.25% to 16.77, reflecting calm for now but possibly underestimating upcoming risk. Keep position sizes modest and stops tight, especially near key inflection zones.

Model’s Projected Range

The model projects a maximum expected range for SPY on Monday between $593.25 and $606.25. The Call side continues to dominate within a narrowing band, suggesting that price action may be choppy to start the week. Friday’s stronger-than-expected Jobs Report signaled ongoing resilience in the U.S. economy, despite persistent trade tensions. SPY responded positively to the news, once again testing the $600 level. Although the index was rejected at that level for the second time, it still closed the day more than 1% higher. Tensions between former President Trump and Elon Musk appear to be easing, but traders should remain alert over the weekend. Any new developments in that story could still rattle markets. In the absence of disruptive headlines, the bullish narrative remains intact as long as SPY holds above the $585 level. Currently, momentum is slowing, with SPY sitting just 2.4% below its all-time high. The market is at a pivotal moment: it must now decide whether to consolidate recent gains or push to new highs. At this point, our model remains neutral. Unless SPY closes below $585, we continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the prevailing uptrend. Key resistance is now located at $600, followed by $603 and $610, while support can be found at $594, $590, and $588. SPY ended Friday at the lower boundary of a steep, uncorrected bull channel that began in April. The current rate of ascent appears unsustainable, and any further weakness could either prompt a redraw of that trend channel or mark the end of the rally. Above $600, resistance thickens quickly, particularly into the $610 zone, which may act as a ceiling for further gains. On the downside, firm support has formed between $594 and $585. Without a fresh catalyst, SPY is likely to remain within the broader $575 to $595 range that has contained most price action since May 13. If SPY holds above $595 on Monday, a move toward $600 and potentially $603 becomes more likely. Conversely, a drop below $595 could trigger a pullback toward $590 and possibly $585, levels that are critical for maintaining the current bullish structure. Trading volume on Friday was in line with averages, indicating a balanced market environment. Since early April, market direction has largely been influenced by macroeconomic indicators, bond yields, inflation data, tariff headlines, and fiscal policy developments. That trend is expected to continue in the absence of a significant policy shift. Meanwhile, the VIX dropped by 9.25% to close at 16.77, which is still well below the key 23 level that typically signals a shift toward risk-off behavior. However, today’s uptick in volatility may be a sign of growing investor unease, increasing the likelihood of price instability if negative surprises emerge. Given the continued uncertainty, traders are advised to remain nimble and responsive to incoming data and breaking news as the new week begins.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI is currently in an average range Bullish Trending Market State with SPY closing just below MSI resistance. Extended targets were printing into the close. Overnight, the MSI rescaled to a wide, ranging state in anticipation of the monthly jobs report. Following the report, the MSI rescaled to its current state, and by the open, began printing extended targets above, signaling that the herd was participating in the day’s rally. SPY encountered major resistance at $600 and retraced from well above MSI resistance-turned-support, pulling back into the MSI range. However, by 1 p.m., SPY once again found buyers at MSI support and rallied to retest the day’s highs. Extended targets continued printing into the close, with SPY finishing at $599.14, up over 1% on the day. The current MSI reflects a relatively strong bullish trend, as extended targets persisted into the close despite a minor pullback. This suggests potential follow-through on Monday, with SPY possibly breaking above $600 and targeting $603 or higher. Currently MSI support stands at $597.27 with resistance at $599.13.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Thursday, we noted: “The Monthly Jobs Report is likely to set the tone for Friday’s session…SPY could swing up or down $10 on Friday, suggesting the potential for trending behavior.” We also stated: “Despite Thursday’s sharp decline, upward momentum remains intact, and dips continue to be bought. As long as SPY holds above $590 on Friday, upside potential extends to $605.” And finally: “We continue to favor long setups, with key support down to $585. Tactical shorts may be considered above $597, but only if a breakout attempt fails and MSI shows signs of weakening.” With this tactical outlook in hand, SPY opened Friday by approaching major resistance at $600, rallying sharply off a strong jobs report. Extended targets were printing above, leaving little to act on initially, so we waited for the MSI to guide us toward a possible setup. While price action presented a textbook failed breakout, we weren’t fighting the extended targets. SPY pulled back to MSI support at $597.27. We waited briefly, then entered long at $597.85, confident in the high probability of a move to MSI resistance at $599. We wouldn’t have taken the trade if the first target was less than $1 away, but the setup qualified. The long played out, and we took 70% of the position off at $599, setting sights on T2 at $600. However, price didn’t follow through immediately and slipped back to our entry. As we often emphasize, we don’t move stops to breakeven after hitting the first target when trading with the trend. Instead, we typically give trades room to develop into the second target. That discipline paid off. SPY dipped below our entry to MSI support and formed a clean failed breakdown at $597. We reloaded the long, again anticipating a high-probability move to $599. The MSI delivered once again: we took T1 at MSI resistance and set T2 at the premarket $600 level, which was hit soon after. With extended targets still printing, we moved our stop to breakeven and trailed the final 10% of the position. SPY reached $600.64, just shy of the earlier session high. While not a textbook failed breakout, the double top formation raised doubts about additional upside potential. By 2:30 p.m., with two solid trades on the day and a week of all winners, we entered profit protection mode, closing the final 10% at $600 and calling it a day. The market chopped around into the close, but we were already enjoying an early start to the weekend. We ended the week with two clean trades, once again led by the MSI and the controlling party, thanks to a clear, structured plan, disciplined execution, and the strategic use of MSI insights to identify control, timing, and actionable levels. When integrated into our trading framework and model’s levels, the MSI continues to be indispensable for consistency and performance.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Next week begins quietly, with little expected to move the market on Monday or Tuesday. Over the weekend, the biggest potential catalyst remains the White House. Should any surprises emerge, the best approach is to trade the market in front of you. In the absence of a major catalyst, SPY is likely to pause around current levels and consolidate, building energy for a potential move toward all-time highs. Upward momentum remains intact, and dips continue to be bought. As long as SPY holds above $595 on Monday, the upside potential extends to $605. A break below $595, however, could send SPY lower toward $585. A failure at that level may open the door to a deeper pullback toward $580 or below. Such a move would likely mark a critical inflection point, potentially shifting control to the bears and would bring the $575–$595 range, where institutions have actively hedged, back into play. Absent a breakdown, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained move above $600 could pave the way to new all-time highs. We continue to favor long setups, with key support down to $585. Tactical shorts may be considered above $603, but only if a breakout attempt fails and the MSI shows signs of weakening. As long as SPY remains above $585, long positions remain favorable. A sustained move below this level could bring renewed bearish pressure. Failed breakdowns remain high-quality long opportunities. Stay alert and responsive as these setups unfold. Avoid engaging during Ranging Market States and always align your strategy with the MSI. The MSI provides real-time insight into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels. When used alongside our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports, it supports more precise execution and higher-probability trades. If you haven’t yet integrated the MSI and model levels into your trading process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools can significantly enhance both consistency and performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $600 to $610 and higher strike Calls implying the belief that the market may continue to move higher on Monday. The peak for Friday from this positioning appears to be $603 for Monday. To the downside, Dealers are buying $599 to $550 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling. Dealer positioning has changed from slightly bearish to neutral for Monday. Dealers are positioned to gain from prices moving higher on Monday.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling $600 to $620 and higher strike Calls implying the belief that the market may continue to move higher next week. The likely ceiling for next week is $605 but clearly Dealers are positioned for the rally to continue. To the downside, Dealers are buying $599 to $505 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling, reflecting a slightly bearish outlook for next week. Dealer positioning is unchanged from slightly bearish to slightly bearish. Dealer positioning hasn’t changed materially in several days which once again further reinforces a continuation of the bull/neutral trend. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

SPY continues to hover just below major resistance at $600, with buyers stepping in this week firmly at $595 and $590. Traders should favor long trades above $590, aiming for $603 and potentially $605 if momentum builds. Short trades may be viable on a break below $590, with downside targets at $585 and $580 or on a failed breakout at $603 or higher. With the VIX at 16.77, volatility is muted for now, but with macro drama can shift this rapidly. Risk management remains critical. Keep stops tight and sizing moderate, especially near major economic releases. Be sure to review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET to adapt to any overnight developments in model projections or Dealer Positioning.

Good luck and good trading!