Market Insights: Monday, June 30th, 2025

Market Overview

U.S. stocks kicked off the holiday-shortened week on a high note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at fresh all-time highs as optimism around trade talks and tax legislation pushed equities higher. Investors were encouraged by signs that the U.S. is moving closer to resolving trade tensions. Canada scrapped its proposed digital services tax just before it was set to take effect, signaling a renewed willingness to negotiate with the U.S. The move came amid reports that President Trump may not extend the looming July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline, providing relief to markets that had been jittery over escalating trade risks.

Meanwhile, the White House solidified two limited trade deals with China and the UK, with the British agreement going live Monday. Traders were also monitoring the Senate’s progress on a sweeping $4.5 trillion tax cut package, dubbed Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” The bill’s high price tag has sparked budget concerns, with the CBO estimating a $3.3 trillion increase to the deficit over the next decade, but momentum is building for passage.

Adding to the bullish tone, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.23%, as cooling inflation data increased the likelihood of Fed rate cuts later this year. As the second quarter closes out, markets appear to be brushing off economic concerns in favor of upside momentum. Looking ahead, the June Jobs Report on Thursday looms large, and with markets closing early that day and remaining shut on Friday for the Fourth of July holiday, trading activity may compress into the midweek sessions.

SPY Performance

SPY extended its winning streak on Monday, climbing 0.48% to close at $617.85. After opening at $612.88, the ETF pushed as high as $619.22 before pulling back slightly. The session low was $615.04, and volume surged to 82.88 million shares, well above average. SPY once again cleared a previous record, closing decisively above the $615 level and solidifying its breakout. The strong close confirms ongoing bullish momentum as we head into quarter-end positioning.

Major Indices Performance

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the major benchmarks with a 0.63% gain, as broad optimism surrounding trade talks and potential tax cuts lifted cyclical names. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 each added 0.48%, with both indexes reaching new all-time highs, powered by strength in large-cap tech. The Russell 2000 underperformed slightly, inching up just 0.14% as small caps saw modest profit-taking. Markets broadly cheered the rollback of Canadian digital service taxes and the fading threat of immediate U.S. tariff hikes. Tech and discretionary sectors led the way, while defensive plays lagged in the risk-on environment.

Notable Stock Movements

The Magnificent Seven posted a mixed session, with Tesla, Amazon, and Alphabet leading the decliners, each falling more than 1.29% amid some sector rotation. On the upside, Nvidia and Meta logged new record highs, continuing their leadership roles in the AI-driven rally. Microsoft touched an intraday high before slipping slightly by the close, narrowly missing its own record mark. Apple and Netflix saw small gains. The divergence within mega-cap tech reflects ongoing market strength, with selective pullbacks offering new opportunities for buyers in dominant names.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil fell 0.81% to settle at $64.99, continuing its drift lower as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain subdued and supply chains stabilize. Our outlook for a gradual return to the $60 level remains intact. Gold reversed its recent slide, climbing 0.93% to $3,318, reflecting renewed demand for hedges despite lower yields. Bitcoin posted a modest 0.23% gain to close above $107,600. Our positioning remains long-only between $83,000 and $77,000, with no interest in buying below that range given the risk of accelerated downside.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 0.63% to close at 4.231%, calming investor nerves after last week’s inflation data kept the Fed’s path in question. Yields continue to stay well below the 4.5% red zone for equities, offering a supportive backdrop for risk assets. The retreat in yields aligns with market hopes for near-term easing, though any surprises in the upcoming jobs data could quickly shift the narrative. For now, the rate environment is benign and equity-positive.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Friday’s forecast called for a bullish continuation with SPY expected to trade between $608 and $618. The model emphasized long entries above the $610 support level, with upside targets at $615, $620, and $625. A move above $620 was viewed as a breakout trigger, while breaks below $610 could see SPY revisit $605 or $600. The strategy leaned bullish, favoring dips as buying opportunities and flagging failed moves around major levels as actionable trading setups. The market’s tone was expected to stay constructive heading into a data-heavy week.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

SPY opened at $612.88, climbed to a high of $619.22, dipped to $615.04, and closed at $617.85—all within the model’s projected range of $608 to $618. The $610 support level once again held firm, offering a clean springboard for bulls, while resistance near $620 slowed the rally but didn’t reverse it. Long trades near $610 and $615 were rewarded, validating the model’s bullish outlook. The pre-defined resistance levels acted as magnets and inflection points throughout the session, demonstrating how effectively the forecast prepared traders to capitalize on SPY’s directional bias and tight intraday range.

Premarket Analysis Summary

In Monday’s premarket analysis posted at 6:56 AM, SPY was trading at $617.59 with a bullish bias firmly in place. The bias level was set at $617.50, and above that, the model targeted upside moves to $620, $621.50, and potentially $625 if momentum accelerated. On the downside, if SPY failed to hold $617.50, the analysis identified targets at $614.50 and $612.00, with potential for choppy behavior below. The analysis favored long entries near support and advised against trading aggressively in the midrange zone between $614.50 and $617 due to likely consolidation.

Validation of the Analysis

Monday’s session validated the premarket roadmap almost perfectly. SPY held above the $617.50 bias level early in the day, moved steadily toward the $620 area, and hit a session high of $619.22 before retreating modestly. The bias level at $617.50 provided a reliable foundation for long trades, and the price action never convincingly broke down toward the lower support targets. Traders who followed the premarket playbook had a clear advantage, with long setups from support levels delivering clean results. Once again, the premarket levels served as accurate guideposts for both momentum and risk management.

Looking Ahead

Tuesday’s session will bring the first wave of important economic data for the week, including ISM PMI and JOLTS job openings, both of which could influence expectations for Fed policy. Fed Chair Powell is also scheduled to speak Tuesday, potentially adding to market volatility. With the June Jobs Report due Thursday and markets closed Friday for the July 4th holiday, traders are likely to front-load their activity midweek. Any surprises from Powell or Tuesday’s data could spark sharp intraday moves, making Tuesday a pivotal session for short-term sentiment.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY closed Monday at $617.85, cementing its breakout above prior resistance and riding a strong bullish trend into quarter-end. Sentiment remains positive, underpinned by progress in trade talks, falling yields, and optimism ahead of Thursday’s jobs data. Resistance now stands at $619, $621, and $625, with key support levels at $615, $611, $609, and $605. If SPY clears $621, the path to $625 opens up, while a break below $609 could shift sentiment. Bulls remain firmly in control, but dense resistance in the $617–$621 zone could slow the ascent unless economic data comes in favorably.

Expected Price Action

Our AI model forecasts SPY to trade between $615 and $621 on Tuesday. This range implies we may see more consolidation with intermittent trending price action. The primary bias remains bullish with SPY continuing to close above key prior highs. Actionable intelligence suggests long trades are favored above $615, targeting $619, $621, and $625. A sustained breakout above $621 could lead to an accelerated push toward $625. Conversely, if SPY slips below $615, watch for pullbacks to $611 and $609, with $605 as a deeper support level. Traders should monitor key resistance zones and look for failed breakouts or breakdowns to position accordingly, especially ahead of Powell’s remarks and Tuesday’s data releases.

Trading Strategy

Traders should continue to favor long setups on dips to $615 or $611, with targets at $619, $621, and $625. If SPY holds above $617.50 in early trading, upside momentum is likely to persist. Should SPY break through $621 with conviction, additional upside toward $625 is a realistic target. Short trades should be considered only on clear rejections near $621 or failed holds below $615, with targets back to $611 and $609. With the VIX rising slightly to 16.73, risk appetite remains healthy, but the increase suggests volatility may pick up this week. Trade smaller sizes ahead of key events, use tight stops in range-bound setups, and be ready to flip direction on failed moves around major levels.

Model’s Projected Range

The model projects SPY’s maximum range for Tuesday between $611.75 and $622.50, with Call-side dominating within a narrow but expanding band, suggesting choppy price action interspersed with brief trending moves. Today’s session extended the prevailing bullish trend, with SPY closing above prior all-time highs at $617.85. While uncertainties, particularly around tariffs, warrant cautious optimism, the broader uptrend remains intact as long as SPY holds above $585. On Tuesday, bulls will look to defend the $615 level, potentially setting the stage for another leg higher. A failure to hold $615 may lead to a pullback toward $610 or even $605, though meaningful downside appears unlikely unless $590 is breached. Absent a major catalyst, our model continues to suggest that dips will be bought and the market will grind higher. We maintain our view that pullbacks remain buying opportunities. Resistance is now noted at $619, $621, and $625, while support levels are seen at $615, $611, $609, and $605. SPY continues to ride above the lower boundary of the redrawn bull channel from the April lows. Though resistance in the $617–$621 zone remains dense, it begins to ease above $621, though a move to $625 will likely be gradual. Conversely, a drop below $609 could introduce some downside risk, though still within the context of a broader uptrend. Market direction remains sensitive to macroeconomic indicators, bond yields, inflation data, tariffs, and fiscal policy, all of which will shape sentiment in the absence of a significant catalyst. Meanwhile, the VIX rose 2.51% to 16.73, signaling reduced investor caution and a continued risk-on tone. Nevertheless, traders should remain nimble amid the potential for rising volatility.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI is currently in a Ranging Market State, with SPY closing in the upper range. Extended targets printed late in the day which saw the price rally off the day’s lows to close at another new, all-time high. The MSI spent most of the day in a Bullish Trending Market State with price bouncing in a fairly narrow range between MSI support and MSI resistance. A brief dip and a rescale to a very narrow bearish state set up the reversal after 2 pm which pushed price higher. The MSI rescaled to a bullish state several times but each was narrow and as such, as SPY approached major resistance at $620, it fell back to close at $617.85 with the MSI in a ranging state. This implies some confusion and likely consolidation for Tuesday. Currently MSI support stands at $616.29 with resistance at $618.20.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Friday, we noted: “Maintaining levels above $610 will be key to pushing beyond Friday’s highs,” and added, “A move toward $620 and new highs looks increasingly likely.” We also stated, “We continue to favor long setups above $605, while selective short opportunities may arise above $618 or on failed breakouts.” With this actionable roadmap in hand and SPY opening above $617.50, our focus was clear: find a way to get long. SPY pulled back to MSI support before 11 a.m., and on a double bottom, we entered long at $616 with an initial target at MSI resistance near $617.50. While price briefly dipped below our entry, we give trend trades room to develop. When we spotted the failed breakdown just before 2 p.m., we knew we were positioned well. SPY eventually rallied and hit our first target around 3 p.m. We set T2 at the rescaled MSI resistance of $618. With both targets in hand and our stop moved to breakeven, we trailed the position as MSI continued to rescale higher, while printing extended targets. $620 was a premarket target we had in sight. As price climbed above $619, extended targets stopped printing, and SPY formed a fairly textbook failed breakout. We exited the trade with six minutes remaining in the session and wrapped it up. It was a choppy, sideways session for the most part, but a profitable one nonetheless, thanks to a structured plan, disciplined execution, and the strategic use of MSI for directional clarity, timing, and actionable levels. Integrated into our broader framework and model levels, MSI remains an indispensable tool for consistent trading performance.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Tuesday brings Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, and a speech from Powell. Any of these could move the market, but none are likely to derail the prevailing bull trend. Thursday’s jobs report is the key event of the week and may keep the market in a holding pattern until then. In the meantime, the market appears set to drift toward $621 and potentially $625, continuing to discount negative data in favor of the dominant bullish momentum. As long as SPY holds above $585, bulls remain firmly in control. For Tuesday, maintaining levels above $615 will be critical to pushing beyond Monday’s highs. Volume once again confirmed the session’s strength, and for bears to gain any traction, a break below $600 would be necessary, though even that might yield only modest downside. With a close above $617, a move toward $621 and new highs looks increasingly likely. While external risks like tariff headlines could influence sentiment, the breakout from the $575–$595 consolidation zone signals growing strength. Holding $615 keeps the door open for a push toward $621, while a break below could trigger a test of $610 and potentially attract sellers. Still, barring a meaningful breakdown, the path of least resistance remains higher. We continue to favor long setups above $610, while selective short opportunities may arise above $621 or on failed breakouts and failed holds below $600, especially when MSI signals weakening conditions. Failed moves remain high-quality setups. Stay nimble and avoid trades during Ranging Market States, ensuring full alignment with MSI. Offering real-time insight into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, MSI—when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports—continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $618 to $630 and higher strike Calls indicating the Dealers belief that prices will drift higher on Tuesday. The ceiling for Tuesday appears to be $621. To the downside, Dealers are buying $617 to $575 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling implying little concern that prices may move lower on Tuesday. Dealer positioning is unchanged from neutral to neutral.   
Looking Ahead to Thursday:
Dealers are selling SPY $618 to $635 and higher strike Calls while also selling very small quantities of $616 to $617 Puts indicating the Dealers belief that prices will move higher this week. Dealers do not sell close to the money Puts if they have concern about prices falling. The likely ceiling for the week is currently $620. To the downside, Dealers are buying $615 to $550 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls/Puts they’re selling, reflecting a neutral outlook for the week. Dealer positioning is unchanged from neutral to neutral. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

With SPY continuing to push into uncharted territory, long setups remain the preferred strategy. Dips toward $615 and $611 should be viewed as buying opportunities with targets at $619, $621, and potentially $625. A breakout above $621.50 could spark a new leg higher. Short trades should be considered only on clear rejections or failed breakouts near resistance, particularly between $621 and $625, targeting moves back toward $615 or $611. With VIX ticking up to 16.73, traders should prepare for an uptick in volatility and adjust sizing accordingly. Always prioritize trades around key levels, using failed breakouts or breakdowns as signal triggers. Avoid overexposure ahead of major data and Powell’s comments on Tuesday.

Review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET to account for any changes in the model’s outlook and in Dealer Positioning.

Good luck and good trading!