Market Insights: Tuesday, June 24th, 2025
Market Overview
Stocks surged Tuesday, pushing major U.S. indices back toward record territory, fueled by optimism around a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East and dovish hints from the Federal Reserve. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 both closed at their highest levels since February, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a new all-time high as megacap tech stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple powered higher. Hopes for a lasting truce between Israel and Iran lifted investor sentiment, as President Trump announced a U.S.-brokered ceasefire appeared to be holding, despite brief accusations of violations. Trump’s remarks helped calm fears of renewed conflict, easing pressure on oil prices and reinforcing risk-on appetite.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a more accommodative tone in his testimony to Congress, suggesting the central bank could cut rates “sooner rather than later” depending on inflation data and tariff-related impacts. Powell’s remarks reassured markets that the Fed remains flexible and responsive to economic developments. The Dow jumped more than 500 points, or 1.2%, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.4% and the S&P 500 advanced 1.1%. The broader rally continued the momentum from Monday’s rebound and reflects growing investor confidence that geopolitical tensions may not derail the economic expansion. However, not all news was upbeat; FedEx slipped 5% in after-hours trading after issuing a disappointing earnings forecast, citing soft demand and tariff uncertainty. Still, the day belonged to the bulls, as risk appetite returned and equities rallied sharply into the close.
SPY Performance
SPY rallied 1.10% on Tuesday, closing at $606.78 after opening at $604.33 and surging to an intraday high of $607.85. The ETF traded on lighter volume of 62.06 million shares but held strong above Monday’s close of $600.07, reinforcing bullish momentum and breaking further above key resistance levels. The powerful finish marked the second consecutive gain and solidified SPY’s push back into breakout territory. Holding above $605 into the close increases the probability of a test of all-time highs in the sessions ahead.
Major Indices Performance
The Nasdaq led Tuesday’s rally with a 1.43% gain, followed by the Russell 2000 rising 1.33%, the Dow Jones advancing 1.19%, and the S&P 500 gaining 1.10%. The risk-on tone was driven by easing Middle East concerns and dovish Fed commentary, which combined to lift sentiment across the board. Cyclical sectors outperformed defensives, and tech shares helped lead the way as confidence returned to the market. The Dow’s gain of over 500 points brings it closer to fresh highs, while the Nasdaq’s surge pushed it to levels not seen since February. Optimism over a ceasefire and potential rate cuts helped sustain broad-based strength for the second straight session.
Notable Stock Movements
Among the Magnificent Seven, Netflix, Amazon, and Nvidia led with gains of more than 2%, showcasing continued investor appetite for growth and innovation. The rest of the group ended firmly green, except for Tesla and Apple, which slipped slightly. Nvidia’s move reflects strong momentum in AI and semiconductors, while Amazon’s rally suggests revived consumer confidence. Overall, the strong showing in this elite group of stocks bolstered market breadth and provided the fuel needed for another breakout session. The mild weakness in Tesla and Apple was more a pause than a pullback, with no major headlines driving the softness.
Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil continued to retreat, sliding 3.40% to settle at $65.08 as peace hopes grew in the Middle East. The move lower in oil reflects easing fears around supply disruptions, particularly via the Strait of Hormuz. Our long-standing model forecast of crude drifting toward $60 remains in play as long as the truce holds. Gold slipped 0.14% to $3,336, showing little movement as anxiety eased. Bitcoin rallied 3.25% to close above $105,900, continuing its consolidation near elevated levels. We remain buyers of Bitcoin between $83,000 and $77,000, viewing it as a viable long-only vehicle in that band. A sustained break below $77K would raise concerns for further downside.
Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield edged slightly lower by 0.14%, closing at 4.296%. The dip in yields helped underpin Tuesday’s equity rally, reinforcing the view that the Fed may move to ease policy in the near future. However, with yields still elevated, any move above 4.5% could reintroduce downside pressure on stocks. As always, the bond market remains a crucial barometer for risk appetite. For now, lower yields are giving equities some breathing room to continue higher.
Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Monday’s newsletter projected a bullish tilt for SPY with an expected range between $591.75 and $604.75. The report emphasized the importance of holding above $598 to maintain bullish control, with upside targets set at $601 and $605, and a break above $605 possibly opening the door to $610. On the downside, $594 and $590 were identified as key support levels. Actionable intelligence suggested long trades on dips to $598 or $596 and short setups near failed rallies at $605. The strategy underscored a bullish lean contingent on Powell’s testimony not disappointing.
Market Performance vs. Forecast
SPY’s Tuesday session tracked the forecast closely. After opening at $604.33, SPY briefly dipped to $603.41 before powering higher to a high of $607.85 and closing firmly at $606.78. The model’s upper projection of $604.75 was breached as SPY broke above the key $605 resistance zone, validating the bullish bias and offering clear long trade opportunities. The successful retest and reclaim of the $603–$605 area provided ideal setups aligned with the forecasted strategy. Momentum carried through into the close, driven by positive Fed signals and a de-escalation in geopolitical risk. Traders who followed the plan had a roadmap that played out cleanly, with profits achievable on both breakout trades and dips to support.
Premarket Analysis Summary
In Tuesday’s premarket analysis posted at 7:39 AM, SPY was trading at $604.96 with a key bias level set at $603.25. The analysis warned of an “extreme” overnight move fueled by geopolitics and set a bullish outlook if SPY remained above the bias level. The upside targets included $605, $606.25, and an extreme stretch goal of $612. On the downside, a break below $603.25 would open up room to fall toward $599 or $594, especially if momentum failed. The sentiment was skewed bullish but emphasized the need for sustained buying to maintain the rally.
Validation of the Analysis
The premarket analysis delivered a highly accurate forecast. SPY never slipped below the $603.25 bias level and quickly met the $605 and $606.25 upside targets before topping out at $607.85. This confirmed the model’s call for upside continuation, provided the bias level held. Traders who entered long positions on early dips had clear guidance, with profit-taking opportunities aligned with the specified targets. The anticipated “extreme” upward move materialized, demonstrating the value of the premarket roadmap. Once again, the premarket levels offered a strong foundation for intraday tactical decisions.
Looking Ahead
Fed Chair Powell continues his testimony on Wednesday, offering another chance to influence markets. While day one was perceived as dovish, markets will be watching for any signs of shift in tone. Thursday brings GDP and Unemployment Claims, and Friday’s PCE data, often referred to as the Fed’s favorite inflation metric, could be pivotal. Traders should remain attentive as this cluster of economic releases could alter the market’s perception of future rate cuts and growth prospects.
Market Sentiment and Key Levels
SPY closed at $606.78, signaling strong bullish momentum and solidifying a breakout above prior resistance. Market sentiment remains constructive, boosted by a possible resolution to Middle East tensions and a supportive Fed. Key support now sits at $605, $602, and $600, with $600 remaining the critical pivot zone. Resistance lies at $607, $609, and $612, and a breakout above $612 could challenge the all-time high at $613.23. Bulls are firmly in control, but traders should stay alert for potential volatility around Powell’s testimony and this week’s economic data.
Expected Price Action
Our AI model projects SPY’s expected range for Wednesday between $604 and $610. This narrow range suggests a choppy session with interspersed bursts of momentum. With Call dominance and SPY trading above key resistance, the market leans bullish. Actionable intelligence favors long setups above $600 targeting $609 and $612. If SPY breaks above $610, expect a test of the all-time high at $613.23. However, failure to hold $602 may trigger a retest of $600 and could slip toward $598. Watch for sustained volume to confirm any breakout. Traders should remain flexible around Powell’s testimony, as any deviation in tone could quickly reverse direction.
Trading Strategy
With SPY closing strong above $606, long setups remain favored on dips to $605 and $602, targeting $609 and $612. A sustained move above $612 could trigger a breakout toward all-time highs. Short trades can be explored near $609 and $612 on failed breakouts, with initial downside targets at $605 and $602. The VIX fell sharply by 11.85% to 17.48, indicating improved sentiment but not full complacency. While volatility has eased, the environment remains fluid due to upcoming data. Maintain moderate position sizes and tighten stops as SPY nears resistance. Avoid overexposure until Powell’s testimony is fully digested and the week’s data is priced in.
Model’s Projected Range
The model projects SPY’s maximum expected range for Wednesday at $602.25 to $612.50, with the Call side dominating within a narrow band suggesting choppy price action on Wednesday. Today’s session reflected easing concerns over the Middle East conflict, with both oil and equity markets rallying strongly. Day two of the market surge has positioned SPY to potentially break its all-time high. SPY closed at $606.78, signaling robust momentum that could soon challenge the previous high of $613.23. While we remain cautiously optimistic amid ongoing uncertainties, particularly around tariffs, the broader bullish narrative remains firmly intact. As we've maintained, bulls are in control as long as SPY holds above $585. For Wednesday, the $600 level is seen as critical support. Holding above it would pave the way for another leg higher, whereas a failure at this level would serve as an early warning. A decisive break below $590, however, is required to introduce meaningful downside pressure. Absent a major external catalyst, our model continues to suggest that dips will be bought. A minor pullback overnight or tomorrow would likely present another buyable opportunity. Resistance is now observed at $607, $609, and $612, while support levels are noted at $605, $602, and $600. SPY also closed above the lower boundary of the recently redrawn bull channel stemming from the April lows. Though resistance remains heavy between $609 and $615, a breakout above $615 could propel the index well beyond its all-time high. Conversely, a break below $600 could expose the market to deeper downside risks, though any such dip should be viewed within the context of a still-strong bull trend. Since April, market direction has closely tracked macroeconomic data, bond yields, inflation trends, tariff developments, and fiscal policy cues, a dynamic we expect to persist barring a major policy shift. Meanwhile, the VIX dropped 11.85% to 17.48, well below the 23 level typically associated with risk-off sentiment. This decline signals reduced investor caution, though the potential for rising volatility remains. In this environment, traders should stay nimble and closely monitor both economic data releases and evolving geopolitical developments.
Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast
Current Market State Overview:
The MSI is currently in a narrow Bullish Trending Market State, with SPY closing well above MSI resistance turned support. Extended targets printed into the close indicating the herd participated in the day’s rally. The MSI has not rescaled since yesterday’s close and with a narrow range and extended targets above, it is giving a mixed signal about what to expect on Wednesday. Clearly the bull trend is strong and with extended targets, the market wants to move higher. But without rescaling higher, the MSI is saying, not so fast. A narrow range that has not rescaled tells us volume and other factors are not supporting the current move at these levels. It will be very important to watch the MSI overnight and on Wednesday for clues of continued strength with rescalings higher, or potential weakness signaling a pull back to MSI support at $599. Into the day’s close SPY fell slightly but still managed a close above $605 indicating real strength to this rally. Currently, MSI support stands at $599.02 and lower at $597.41…the same as yesterday.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Monday, we noted: “A close above $600 would likely signal another leg higher,” and added, “if SPY holds above $590 on Tuesday, a highly probable scenario, a move toward $605 is in play.” Finally, we stated, “the path of least resistance continues to point higher. A sustained move above $605 would likely open the door to new all-time highs”. With this actionable roadmap in hand, and SPY trading above $605 at the open, the only logical approach was to identify a long setup and align with the trend. Fortunately, the premarket report gave us a level to lean on at $603.25. At 10:08 AM, on a test of that level and a less-than-perfect failed breakdown, we entered long on a bullish MSI, supported by extended targets that had been printing throughout the overnight session. With the MSI well below our entry, our first target was set at the premarket level of $605. That target hit quickly, prompting us to take off 70% of the position and set T2 at the next premarket level of $606.25. When that level also hit in short order, we moved our stop to breakeven and trailed the remaining 10% of the position. As the market continued to grind higher and no new premarket or MSI levels emerged, we reverted to a simple but effective strategy; drawing a trendline under price lows and planning to exit the remainder on a break of the trendline. That break came ten minutes before the close, and we exited our final 10% at $607.25, wrapping up one strong trade that added nicely to the bottom line. Importantly, we never considered a mean reversion trade. MSI’s extended targets and directional clarity kept us focused on the long side and discouraged any attempt to fade the move. Once again, a structured plan, disciplined execution, and strategic use of MSI for directional control, timing, and actionable levels made for a successful session. Integrated with our broader framework and model levels, MSI remains an indispensable tool for consistent trading performance.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Chair Powell continues speaking tomorrow, and the dovish tone of his remarks thus far has been notably supportive of the market and the case for lower interest rates. As the adage goes, "don’t fight the Fed." Several key reports are due later in the week, but in the current environment, the best approach for Wednesday, and likely the remainder of the week, is to trade in alignment with the controlling party, which is clearly the bulls. Barring any macro shocks, the broader uptrend remains intact as long as SPY holds above $585. A test and failure of $600 could attract bears, but with minimal downside pressure present, it’s unlikely to result in significant follow-through. A close above $610 would likely signal another leg higher, with all-time highs firmly within reach. While external factors like tariff headlines still pose a credible risk to sentiment, the market has decisively broken out of the $575–$595 range that defined much of the action since May. With that consolidation phase now behind us, expectations lean toward continued strength and higher prices. Looking ahead, if SPY holds above $590 on Wednesday, a highly probable scenario, a move toward $610 is in play. Conversely, a break below $600 could trigger a pullback toward $590, potentially reigniting bearish interest. That said, absent a meaningful breakdown, the path of least resistance continues to point higher. We continue to favor long setups above $590, while tactical shorts may be considered above $609 or on failed breakouts and failed holds below $590, particularly when MSI signals weakening market conditions. As always, failed breakouts and breakdowns offer high-quality opportunities. Stay alert and remain flexible as these scenarios unfold. Avoid trading during Ranging Market States and ensure your strategy is aligned with MSI. MSI delivers real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels. When used alongside our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports, MSI sharpens execution and elevates trade quality. If MSI and our model levels are not yet part of your trading toolkit, now is the time to incorporate them. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.
Dealer Positioning Analysis
Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $607 to $616 and higher strike Calls while also selling $601 to $606 Puts indicating the Dealers belief that prices will continue to rise on Wednesday. Dealers do not sell close to the money Puts unless they are convinced the market will move higher and certainly yesterday, this call was spot on. To the downside, Dealers are buying $600 to $575 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls/Puts they’re selling/buying implying little concern that prices may move lower on Wednesday. Dealer positioning is unchanged from neutral to neutral.
Looking Ahead to Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $609 to $625 and higher strike Calls while selling $601 to $608 Puts, indicating the Dealers belief that the market is likely to rally this week and if it does, they want to participate in any upside. The likely ceiling for the week is currently $610. To the downside, Dealers are buying $600 to $540 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying, reflecting a slightly bearish/neutral outlook for this week. Dealer positioning is unchanged from slightly bearish/neutral to slightly bearish/neutral. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.
Recommendation for Traders
With SPY firmly holding above the $605 mark and pressing higher, traders should look to buy pullbacks toward $605 or $602, targeting $609 and $612 as profit zones. If the market breaks above $612, expect a potential breakout toward all-time highs. Short trades may be considered near $609 and $612 on failed breakouts, targeting $605 and $602. The VIX at 17.48 reflects a more relaxed sentiment, though Powell’s continued testimony and upcoming economic releases could inject fresh volatility. Use tight stops on short trades and scale positions carefully on long setups. Review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET to stay updated on overnight shifts in model outlook or Dealer Positioning.
Good luck and good trading!
