Market Insights: Thursday, June 12th, 2025
Market Overview
Stocks climbed on Thursday as investors looked past renewed tariff threats and embraced the latest signal of easing inflation. The Dow rose 0.24%, buoyed despite Boeing’s losses following a tragic plane crash in India. The S&P 500 added nearly 0.4%, marking its highest close since February 20. The Nasdaq mirrored the Dow with a 0.24% gain, with Oracle leading the tech space thanks to a 13% surge. President Trump once again called on the Federal Reserve to slash rates, pushing for a “jumbo cut” and noting he told Chair Powell he’s okay with hikes later if inflation rises again. He emphasized his preference for cheaper financing in the near term, without threatening Powell’s job. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar sank to a three-year low as wholesale inflation data reinforced Wednesday’s tame CPI report. The administration reignited concerns by reaffirming a “take it or leave it” approach to new tariff rates, although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that trade partners are likely to receive a 90-day extension on tariff pauses. While market optimism is building around a possible Fed cut, Wall Street remains cautious, watching for clarity on both inflation and tariff policy heading into next week’s FOMC meeting.
SPY Performance
SPY rose 0.38% to close at $603.65 after opening at $600.05. It touched an intraday low of $599.52 before rebounding to a high of $603.71, closing near session highs on above-average volume of 59.45 million shares. The ETF’s rally was fueled by confirmation of soft wholesale inflation, reinforcing Wednesday’s CPI surprise. Though early morning weakness tested support, the strong afternoon bounce pushed SPY above the $600 mark and back toward key resistance levels. The close near the highs reflects renewed buying interest, with bullish momentum holding as SPY nears critical technical zones at $605 and above.
Major Indices Performance
The S&P 500 led the market on Thursday, gaining 0.38% and closing at its highest level since February 20, as falling inflation data fueled rate cut hopes. The Nasdaq and Dow both added 0.24%, with tech stocks staying in focus after Oracle’s sharp move higher. In contrast, small caps lagged, with the Russell 2000 dropping 0.35% as investors steered toward larger, more stable names amid policy uncertainty. Traders balanced Trump’s renewed tariff threats with the market-friendly inflation print, which helped keep risk appetite intact. Defensive sectors underperformed slightly as cyclical names regained footing, and the broader market remained cautiously optimistic heading into Friday’s data.
Notable Stock Movements
The Magnificent Seven had a mixed session, with Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon rising, while Tesla led the laggards with a drop of more than 2.2%. Tesla’s slide offset gains in other tech giants, illustrating growing investor selectivity in an environment shaped by policy risk and shifting rate expectations. Oracle’s 13% rally stood out, boosting broader tech sentiment and helping the Nasdaq stay positive. The divergence in mega-cap performance reflects a market still searching for leadership while digesting macroeconomic signals.
Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Crude oil rose 0.25% to settle at $68.31, staging a modest recovery as tensions in the Middle East and a weakening dollar helped offset longer-term bearish signals. Despite this bounce, our model still sees downside risk toward $60 and even $50, which could offer a better buying opportunity. Gold surged 1.94% to $3,408 as investors rotated into safe havens amid currency softness and tariff uncertainty. Bitcoin slipped 1.99%, closing just above $106,700. We remain buyers between $83,000 and $77,000 but continue to caution against purchases below $77,000 due to the potential for deeper losses.
Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield declined 1.29% to 4.356%, marking another retreat after the PPI release confirmed cooling inflation. With yields now comfortably below the 4.5% threshold, equities found support. However, risks remain. A reversal back above 4.5% or worse, a move toward 4.8%—could pressure high-growth stocks. For now, falling yields are easing valuation concerns, but the bond market remains on edge as traders await next week’s Fed decision.
Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
The previous forecast projected a trading range of $595.25 to $607.50, favoring long setups above $600 with targets at $605 and $608. The model highlighted that a move above $605 could extend to $610, while a drop below $600 could test $596 and $592. Traders were warned that volatility was likely to increase due to Core PPI and Unemployment Claims. The strategy recommended staying nimble, favoring longs above $600 and being ready to pivot if support broke.
Market Performance vs. Forecast
Thursday’s market closely followed the forecasted framework. SPY opened at $600.05, dipped to a low of $599.52, and surged to a high of $603.71 before settling at $603.65. The day’s action remained within the projected range and respected the $600 pivot, confirming the importance of that level. The model’s emphasis on watching for a reversal above $600 paid off, as the bounce generated profitable long trades. While SPY didn’t quite test $605, it came close, with the upper target remaining valid for Friday. The day reinforced the utility of the model’s directional bias and key levels, especially in the wake of PPI data that supported risk-on behavior.
Premarket Analysis Summary
In Thursday’s premarket analysis posted at 7:45 AM, SPY was trading at $598.22 with a cautious tone. The analysis warned that staying below $599 could keep pressure on the market, with downside targets at $597, $595, and possibly $589 if selling accelerated. The bias level was clearly $599, with upside targets at $599, $602, $603.50, and $605. The note advised early profit-taking on long trades, especially in the event of sudden rallies from oversold levels, but maintained a skeptical stance unless SPY reclaimed $599.
Validation of the Analysis
Thursday’s trading session validated the premarket analysis almost perfectly. SPY initially remained weak, dipping below $600 and tagging $599.52 before recovering. Once SPY reclaimed the $599 bias level, it steadily advanced toward the upside targets, breaking through $602 and ending just shy of $605. The predicted reversal from support zones and the importance of $599 as a trigger level were spot on. Traders who waited for a confirmation above $599 had a clear setup, and those who avoided early downside chasing were rewarded with clean long entries. The analysis provided a reliable blueprint for navigating Thursday’s price action.
Looking Ahead
Friday brings the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports, which could sway short-term sentiment. While Thursday’s PPI reinforced a disinflation narrative, Friday’s sentiment reading will help traders assess whether consumers are aligned with Wall Street’s optimism. If inflation expectations remain tame, it would bolster the case for easing from the Fed. However, any upside surprises could reignite rate fears and test SPY’s recent strength.
Market Sentiment and Key Levels
SPY closed Thursday at $603.65, showing resilience after testing key support. Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish, supported by back-to-back soft inflation reports and ongoing Fed rate cut speculation. Resistance now sits at $605, $608, and $610, while support is forming at $600, $598, and $595. A break above $605 could open the door to $610 and beyond, but failure to hold above $600 would raise the risk of a move back toward $595 or lower. With momentum slowing slightly, traders should watch for a grind higher or abrupt reversal based on Friday’s data.
Expected Price Action
Our AI model projects SPY’s expected range for Friday between $600 and $606, indicating the potential for a trending session. As long as SPY holds above $600, the market leans bullish with upside targets at $605 and $610. A break above $605 could lead to new highs, especially if economic sentiment supports the inflation slowdown narrative. On the downside, a fall below $598 would bring $595 into play, with a drop toward $590 threatening the bullish structure. This is actionable intelligence: traders should favor long setups above $600, while monitoring for failed breakouts or reversals around $605.
Trading Strategy
With the VIX rising 4.4% to 18.02, volatility is creeping higher, though still below risk-off thresholds. Long trades are favored above $600, targeting $605 and $608. Stops should be tightened near these resistance zones to preserve gains. If SPY fails to hold $600, short trades may be taken on breakdowns toward $595 and $590, with smaller size preferred to manage risk. Given the elevated uncertainty around macro events, trade with flexibility and let price action confirm entries. Avoid overexposure until the market establishes direction and tighten stops in chop while allowing for wider stops in trending moves.
Model’s Projected Range
The model projects SPY’s maximum range for Friday is between $597.50 and $609.25, with continued Call-side dominance in a stable band suggesting choppy trading on Friday with intermittent periods of trending moves. PPI data released early in the day confirmed yesterday’s softer-than-expected CPI, fueling a market rally that pushed SPY to close near session highs despite ongoing geopolitical risk from the potential escalation of the Israel–Iran conflict. SPY closed above $603, maintaining the bullish narrative, which remains valid as long as price holds above $585. Momentum, however, is beginning to slow, suggesting a gradual grind higher rather than an impulsive move unless a significant external catalyst disrupts the current dynamic. A decisive close below $585 would meaningfully shift the short-term outlook to bearish. Key resistance levels are now defined at $605, $608, and $610, while support resides at $600, $598, and $595. Notably, SPY ended the session below the lower bound of a steep, uncorrected bull channel from April. This break implies that the recent rate of ascent may be unsustainable, warranting either a channel redraw or signaling the start of a broader pullback if weakness continues. Above $605, a strong wall of resistance extends to $610, potentially capping near-term upside. Below $598, support begins to build but remains shallow until $590 making that a critical level to watch. Without a new catalyst, SPY could attempt a reversion to the broader $575–$595 range that has dominated since May 13. Looking ahead to Friday, holding above $600 would favor a continued move toward $605 or even $610. Conversely, a break below $600 could open the door to a pullback targeting $595 or $590, both of which are pivotal for maintaining the current bullish structure. Since April, market direction has remained closely tied to macroeconomic data, bond yields, inflation prints, tariff developments, and fiscal policy headlines, a dynamic that is likely to persist barring any major policy shifts. Meanwhile, the VIX rose 4.4% to 18.02, still below the 23 threshold typically associated with risk-off sentiment. That said, any further increase in volatility could reflect growing investor caution and raise the likelihood of price instability in response to adverse surprises. Given the ongoing uncertainty, traders are encouraged to stay nimble and responsive to economic data releases and headline-driven risks as the week progresses.
Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast
Current Market State Overview:
The MSI is currently in an average width Bullish Trending Market State, with SPY closing at MSI support. Extended targets did not print today as the MSI spent the bulk of the day in a wide Ranging State which saw price move sideways virtually all day. A rally in the premarket on weaker than expected PPI confirmed inflation is abating and the market rallied close to the day’s highs by 11 am before moving sideways the rest of the day. A late push higher and the MSI rescaled higher to its present state implying a likely continuation of the bull trend on Friday. Currently, MSI support stands at $603.34 with resistance at $605.17.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Wednesday, we noted: “SPY is likely to consolidate or flag slightly lower, building energy for a potential move back toward the $605 level.” We also stated, “Upward momentum remains intact, and dips continue to be bought. As long as SPY holds above $600 on Thursday, upside potential extends to $610.” Finally, we said, “We continue to favor long setups.” With that guidance in mind, our plan was to look for a long entry after an expected overnight dip. The dip came right on cue, but once the PPI was released, the market began moving toward the day’s highs. At the open, the MSI indicated a very wide Ranging Market State, one we typically avoid. However, with price holding at $599.75 and sitting on MSI support, we opted for a small long position with a tight stop, giving us a chance to participate in any potential rally. Our first target was the premarket level of $602, which was reached by 10:15 a.m. We then set T2 at MSI resistance and another premarket level at $603.50 which was also hit quickly, putting us solidly green on the day. With our stop moved to breakeven, we held the remaining position to see if price might push higher, possibly testing $605. A pullback into the mid-range of the MSI followed, leaving us with little to do but wait for higher prices or get stopped at breakeven on our 10% trailer. After SPY retested MSI resistance at $603.50, we were satisfied with the outcome and closed the position around 1 p.m., locking in our gains. We do not hold positions overnight, though those who do may still be trailing gains. While we’re not opposed to that approach, it’s simply not our style. Ultimately, this was a solid winner, driven by a clear, structured plan, disciplined execution, and the strategic use of the MSI for control, timing, and actionable levels. Integrated into our broader trading framework and model levels, the MSI continues to prove indispensable for delivering consistent performance.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
With UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations scheduled for release tomorrow, the market may see modest movement during the premarket session. These reports reflect the state of the consumer rather than the broader economy, so we do not anticipate significant market impact from these data points. Overnight, we expect the market to remain range-bound, with a developing consolidation zone between $599 and $605. This emerging range could serve as the launching point for a potential breakout to new all-time highs. However, risks remain, particularly from external catalysts such as tariff policy developments or escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, either of which could quickly shift sentiment. When headlines break, trade what you see. Absent such catalysts, upward momentum remains intact, and dips continue to be bought. As long as SPY holds above $599 on Friday, upside potential extends toward $610. Conversely, a break below $599 may bring $595 into focus. If that level fails to hold, a deeper pullback toward $590 or even $585 is possible, levels that mark a critical inflection zone and could hand short-term control back to the bears. Such a move would reintroduce the previously active $575–$595 range, an area where institutional hedging has been observed. Unless a meaningful breakdown occurs, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. A sustained move above $605 would likely open the door to new all-time highs. We continue to favor long setups, with key support extending down to $585. Tactical shorts may be considered on failed breakouts above $605 or failed holds below $600, especially if the MSI begins to show signs of weakening. As long as SPY holds above $585, long setups remain favorable. Failed breakdowns continue to offer high-quality long opportunities. Stay alert and responsive as these setups develop. Avoid trading during Ranging Market States and always align your strategy with the MSI. The MSI provides real-time insight into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels. When paired with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports, it enhances execution precision and improves trade quality. If you haven’t yet incorporated the MSI and model levels into your trading process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to drive consistency and elevate performance.
Dealer Positioning Analysis
Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling SPY $604 to $615 and higher strike Calls implying the belief that the market will continue to rally on Friday. The peak from this positioning for Friday appears to be $610. To the downside, Dealers are buying $603 to $550 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling. Dealer positioning is unchanged from neutral to neutral for Friday.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling $604 to $620 and higher strike Calls while selling $597 to $603 Puts implying the Dealers belief that the market may continue to drift higher next week. Dealers do not sell Puts close to the money unless they are convinced prices will move higher. The likely ceiling for next week is $610. To the downside, Dealers are buying $596 to $505 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls/Puts they’re selling, reflecting a neutral to slightly bearish outlook for next week. Dealer positioning has changed from bearish to slightly bearish/neutral. This implies only a bit of concern that the bull trend may in fact be coming to an end or at least face headwinds next week. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.
Recommendation for Traders
With SPY closing above $603, the bullish structure remains intact heading into Friday. Traders should favor long entries above $599, with targets at $603 and $605. Stop losses should be tightened as SPY approaches resistance to protect profits. If SPY fails to hold $599, short trades can be considered, targeting $595 and $590. We may also seek shorts above $605 on a failed breakout given its likely the market moves more sideways than straight up. Given the VIX’s rise to 18.02, volatility is creeping higher, so risk should be managed carefully with smaller position sizes and tight stops. Be ready for increased market swings tied to Friday’s consumer sentiment data.
Review the premarket analysis posted before 9 AM ET for any overnight developments or model updates.
Good luck and good trading!
