Market Insights: Thursday, April 24th, 2025

Market Overview

Stocks surged again on Thursday, marking a third consecutive day of gains as optimism around tariff negotiations and rate cut expectations lifted sentiment across Wall Street. The Dow climbed nearly 500 points, closing up 1.3%, while the S&P 500 rose close to 2.1%. The Nasdaq led the way, jumping about 2.7%, thanks to strong performances from Big Tech. Over the past three sessions, the Nasdaq has soared more than 8%, with the S&P 500 adding just over 6%, and the Dow climbing more than 5%. Driving the rally were renewed hopes that progress on trade talks with India and South Korea could materialize, even as the U.S.-China negotiations remain murky. Investors also responded positively to dovish comments from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who suggested that rate cuts could be on the table as soon as June if incoming data supports such a move. After hours, Alphabet posted better-than-expected earnings and announced a 5% dividend hike alongside a $70 billion stock buyback, adding more fuel to the bullish sentiment.

SPY Performance

SPY jumped 2.07% to close at $546.48, following an opening of $540.43 and trading between a high of $547.23 and a low of $535.45. Volume came in at 56.71 million shares, slightly below the previous session but still reflecting active trading. The strong close above $545 was a notable breakout, signaling momentum continuation and a potential challenge of higher resistance levels in upcoming sessions.

Major Indices Performance

The Nasdaq was again the standout, climbing 2.89% on the day as tech giants continued to fuel the rally. The S&P 500 followed with a 2.07% gain, supported by broad-based buying. The Russell 2000 rose 1.92%, showing solid participation from small caps, while the Dow gained 1.23%, contributing nearly 500 points to the rally. Markets stayed buoyant on the back of improving trade rhetoric and growing bets on a mid-year rate cut, which helped sustain risk-on sentiment across the board.

Notable Stock Movements

The Magnificent Seven had another strong session, led by Netflix, which soared over 4.5%. Nvidia posted a 3.5% gain, while Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon each rose more than 3%. The rest of the group also ended solidly in the green, reflecting widespread investor confidence in the tech sector. These moves underscored the market’s renewed appetite for growth stocks amid easing macro fears.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil remained under pressure, falling 1.98% to $62.26 as the market continued to price in lower demand scenarios. Our long-term outlook sees crude dipping as low as $50, where we would be buyers, although short-term bounces are possible. Gold rebounded, gaining 1.83% to close at $3,348, supported by lingering inflation worries despite the market rally. Bitcoin edged down slightly by 0.25% to finish just above $93,500. We remain long buyers between $77,000 and $83,000, with profit targets above $85,000.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield declined 1.69% to close at 4.313%, offering slight relief to equities. While still elevated, the drop in yields helped support the bullish sentiment. Equities remain sensitive to yield movements, and a push above 4.5% could revive selling pressure. The bond market continues to reflect caution, though yields have not yet triggered broader market stress.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Wednesday’s forecast called for a trading range of $524.50 to $549, with a neutral to slightly bullish bias supported by Call-side strength. Key resistance was pegged at $540 and $545, with support at $532, $530, and $525. The model leaned bullish if SPY could stay above $535, targeting $540 and $545, while warning that a failure below $532 could test lower levels. Traders were advised to look for failed breakouts near $545 or breakdowns near $532.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

SPY’s actual performance closely mirrored the forecast, with a low of $535.45 and a high of $547.23, firmly within the projected range. The market broke through resistance at $540 and $545, with a strong close at $546.48, validating the bullish bias. Long trades above $535 delivered gains, particularly for those targeting the $540 to $545 zone. The day played out as expected, with SPY maintaining strength above key support and hitting upside targets.

Premarket Analysis Summary

In today’s premarket analysis posted at 8:37 AM, SPY was trading at $534.80 with a bias level set at $538. The outlook anticipated choppy action unless SPY broke and held above $538, which would open the door to targets at $541.75 and $545. A move below $530.75 was seen as weak, with cautious downside expectations. The analysis correctly forecasted a fragile but bullish-leaning market.

Validation of the Analysis

SPY respected the premarket analysis almost perfectly, breaking through $538 early and climbing steadily to hit $541.75 and pushing beyond $545, reaching $547.23 before closing at $546.48. The premarket bias was validated, and traders who followed the plan had clear opportunities, particularly buying above $538 and taking profits near the upper targets. The analysis again proved its value in predicting the day’s movements with precision.

Looking Ahead

Friday’s economic calendar is quiet, setting up the potential for a consolidation day. Attention will soon shift to next week’s heavy data slate, including JOLTS, ADP Payroll, GDP, PCE, and the Monthly Jobs Report—all key events likely to inject volatility into the markets.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY’s close at $546.48 suggests bullish sentiment has gained traction, but the market remains near a pivotal area. Resistance is now at $550, $552, $555, and $557, while support rests at $545, $542, $540, and $535. A push above $550 could lead to $555, while a drop below $545 might test $540 and $535. Bulls are in control for now, but caution is warranted with major data ahead.

Expected Price Action

Our AI model forecasts a trading range of $535 to $555 for Friday—this is actionable intelligence. The wide range points to the potential for trending price action. The bias remains slightly bullish, with Call-side dominance underpinning recent strength. If SPY holds above $545, expect tests of $550 and possibly $555. A break below $545 targets $542 and $540. Watch for failed breakouts near $555 or failed breakdowns at $545 as key trading signals.

Trading Strategy

Long trades are favored targeting $550, $552, and $555, with a break above $555 opening the door to $557.75. Short setups are viable as well with targets at $542, $540, and $535. The VIX at 26.47 suggests elevated volatility remains, advising tight stops near resistance and careful position sizing. Manage risk carefully as the market nears key levels.

Model’s Projected Range

The model's maximum projected range for Friday is $535.25 to $557.75, with a predominance on the Call side. This implies continued strength behind the recent relief rally observed over the last three days, amid a broadly volatile market. Despite the wide range, the market requires a day for consolidation. Consequently, on Friday, expect more variability interspersed with periods of trending behavior. We continue to support two-way trading while remaining cautious, regarding this as a temporary rally within an ongoing bear market. With SPY closing just above $545, the bulls have gained a marginal advantage, signifying a shift in momentum. The $535 level remains a pivotal point—above it, bullish sentiment prevails; below it, bearish sentiment dominates. Although a short-term bottom may have formed, the broader market appears susceptible to another selloff as prices approach the $565–$585 zone, potentially revisiting or breaching recent lows. Historically, declines of this nature tend to develop 4 to 16 weeks after an initial bottom. We strongly recommend considering protective strategies or reducing long exposure as the market approaches key resistance areas. With the earnings season underway, many companies are expected to emphasize tariffs in their cautious forward guidance, contributing to already elevated volatility driven by current administration policies. Key technical levels for Friday include: Resistance: $550, $552, $555, and $557 Support: $545, $542, $540, and $535. Friday is relatively quiet in terms of economic news. Following three strong sessions that pushed SPY above $535 to as high as $547, some consolidation or choppiness is anticipated. Bulls must sustain levels above $535 to challenge higher prices, with a potential path to full control if they can close above $585. Conversely, should bears push SPY below $535, a gap fill to $530 is probable before the market determines its next direction. Tariffs, bond yields, and inflation remain the dominant macroeconomic factors likely to influence market action over the next 90 days—or until more definitive signals emerge from the White House. The VIX closed at 26.47, indicating ongoing market apprehension and the potential for further declines. A reduction in the VIX below 23 would favor the bulls. The broader bearish trend channel from the December highs remains intact, with SPY currently trading near the upper boundary. While movement in either direction is possible within this structure, price action is expected to remain largely contained, with significant resistance near $555 and support around $465. Momentum has shifted in favor of the bulls; however, given this volatile environment, we recommend staying agile and prepared for swift changes in market direction. 

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI is currently in a very narrow Bullish Trending Market State, with price closing well above MSI resistance turned support. Extended targets printed all day indicating the herd was participating in today’s move higher. While the MSI range is extremely narrow, extended targets let us know the herd intended to push prices higher. We suspect the MSI will rescale higher on any volume that comes in overnight or in the early morning. The very narrow range suggests the market may stall below $550, unless the MSI rescales higher. Overnight, SPY tested $531 seemingly looking to fill Wednesday’s gap. Yet price quickly bottomed on a very narrow, bearish MSI which saw price move back to the $535 level which has been acting as the dividing line between the bulls and the bears. At the open the MSI was in a very narrow ranging state which quickly rescaled to a bullish state and price ripped higher straight into the close. Currently, MSI support stands at $537.59 and lower at $536.73 but we expect these to change overnight.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Wednesday, we noted for Thursday: “we expect more trending price action.” We also emphasized, “For the bulls, maintaining support above $535 is crucial to continue pressing higher,” and highlighted that “There remains heavy resistance above $545.” With this actionable intelligence in mind, we approached the open looking to go long, provided $535 support held. At 9:38 am, when the MSI shifted to a Bullish Trending Market State with extended targets above, we entered long at MSI support at $536.80, aiming for the first premarket target at $538.50. We didn’t consider the MSI resistance level as a first target as we avoid targets under $1, and with extended targets in play, we were confident price would at least reach the first premarket level. It did so quickly, allowing us to take off 70% of our position, holding the rest for a second target at $541.75. This target was also hit swiftly. With 90% of our position in the bank, we moved our stop to breakeven and trailed the remaining 10%, targeting $545—again, a key level identified in both post- and premarket analysis. Price reached $545 just after noon, then consolidated until breaking out late in the session. We chose to lock in our final profits on a head and shoulders reversal pattern, closing the remaining 10% at $546. A one-and-done day—smooth, stress-free, and without any heat. Once again, we followed our core mantra: have a solid plan, execute with discipline, and let the MSI and model levels guide every decision. The MSI shows who’s in control, when that control shifts, and where key actionable levels lie, enabling precise entries and exits. Combined with our model levels and daily strategy, it keeps us aligned with dominant market forces. It continues to deliver with high precision, helping traders avoid traps, stay in sync with momentum, and take profits confidently. We strongly recommend integrating the MSI into your trading toolkit. Paired with a structured plan, it becomes a powerful driver of long-term performance.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Friday brings no economic data, but as we’ve noted since the new administration took office—anything can happen. Barring unexpected events, we expect the market to take a breather, with more consolidation punctuated by periods of trending price action. This environment should offer more two-way trading opportunities, as bulls may retest some of today’s gains, potentially down to $535. However, we don’t expect price to reach $535 without an external catalyst. More likely, we’ll see price testing $540 to set up for a push toward $550 and beyond. For a breakout toward $555, SPY will need to backfill and build energy to break through the heavy resistance wall above $545. Holding $535 remains critical for the bulls to maintain upward momentum. A failure to hold that level could lead to a gap fill and push price down to $525 or lower. Resistance remains strong above $545, extending all the way to $555, so any move beyond today’s highs is likely to be measured and deliberate. The edge still belongs to the bulls, but that could shift quickly if $535 fails. Bulls won’t fully reclaim control unless SPY regains $585, so caution is still warranted. As always, trade what’s in front of you—lean on the MSI and stay nimble. The MSI updates in real time, revealing intraday structure and momentum shifts, helping you avoid outdated narratives or stale assumptions. For Friday, expect two-way trading, focusing on failed breakouts and failed breakdowns. Avoid trading into extended targets or fighting a wide MSI range. The Premarket Report provides fresh data and AI-driven insights to shape your daily strategy. MSI shows real-time momentum and control shifts, while our model levels define high-probability targets and precise entry zones. Used together, the MSI and model levels keep you aligned with dominant market forces and help you avoid costly missteps. If you’re not already using these tools, now’s the time. Reach out to your rep—these are true game-changers in markets like this.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling $547 to $570 and higher strike Calls implying the Dealers belief that prices may stall near the current level. Dealers are no longer selling close to the money Puts. They were spot on today as price never threatened the Puts they sold. To the downside Dealers are buying $546 to $475 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they are selling, implying a slightly bearish posture for Friday. Dealer positioning has changed from neutral/slightly bullish to slightly bearish, probably reflecting the market’s need to take a day to digest recent gains.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling $547 to $600 and higher strike Calls while also buying $557 and $558 Calls implying Dealers see a likely top at $557 for next week, however should this level be breached, Dealers wish to participate in any move toward $570. To the downside, Dealers are buying $546 to $435 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they’re buying/selling. This reflects a slightly bearish outlook for the next week. Dealers are heavily protected on a failure of $535 but are now also open to prices reaching $570 and possibly beyond. Dealer positioning is unchanged from slightly bearish to slightly bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

With SPY closing at $546.48 and the VIX at 26.47, traders should remain on alert for continued volatility. Long trades are attractive if SPY stays above $545, targeting $550, $552, and $555, while short trades make sense below $545 aiming for $542, $540, and $535. Use tight stops and smaller sizes to manage risk effectively, especially with Friday’s light news backdrop likely to bring consolidation. Review our premarket analysis before 9:00 AM ET to stay aligned with evolving market conditions and Dealer positioning.

Good luck and good trading!