Market Insights: Thursday, April 17th, 2025

Market Overview

Markets wrapped up the week with a choppy session as traders digested mixed earnings and political drama. The Dow tumbled over 500 points, shedding 1.33%, dragged lower by a steep 22% plunge in UnitedHealth after the insurer slashed its full-year profit outlook. The S&P 500 eked out a modest 0.1% gain, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%, giving back some ground after Wednesday’s tech-driven selloff. Thursday’s session ended the trading week early, with markets closed Friday for Good Friday. All major indices finished the week in the red—the Dow and Nasdaq both down more than 2.5%, and the S&P 500 closing off about 1.5%. Adding fuel to the fire, President Trump reignited his feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, publicly attacking the central banker just one day after Powell warned that the administration’s tariffs could spark inflation while weighing on growth. Powell signaled no rush to cut interest rates, stressing the Fed would wait for clarity before making moves. Meanwhile, Netflix lifted some spirits after reporting stronger-than-expected Q1 revenue and guidance, sending shares modestly higher in after-hours trade. However, investor anxiety heading into the long weekend remained elevated amid trade uncertainties and the threat of fresh policy shocks.

SPY Performance

SPY closed marginally higher at $526.41, up 0.14% on the day. The ETF opened at $527.88 and reached a session high of $531.17 before dipping to a low of $523.91. Volume came in at 71.30 million shares, again above average, reflecting continued institutional engagement in a volatile tape. The inability to retake the key $535 level confirmed persistent resistance and kept bulls on the defensive, though a late-session recovery above $525 helped mitigate deeper losses. Thursday’s narrow gain came after Wednesday’s steep decline, capping a tumultuous week for SPY.

Major Indices Performance

The Russell 2000 outperformed with a 0.97% gain, bouncing back after lagging in recent sessions. The S&P 500 ended nearly flat with a slight 0.1% rise, while the Nasdaq drifted down 0.13%. The Dow was the biggest loser, sliding 1.33%, weighed down heavily by the collapse in UnitedHealth, the index’s largest component. Tech stocks stabilized somewhat following Wednesday’s semiconductor-led rout, though investor sentiment remained cautious. Sector rotation was muted, with no clear leadership. Defensive plays failed to catch a bid, as markets appeared more focused on navigating headline risk tied to tariffs and central bank policy. The shortened session and Friday holiday kept trading volumes light and conviction low.

Notable Stock Movements

It was another mixed day for the Magnificent Seven. Nvidia dropped another 2.93%, extending its recent slide as chip-sector fears lingered. Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, and Google also closed lower. However, Netflix bucked the trend, rising after hours following a strong earnings report. Apple also ended slightly in the green, offering a rare bright spot in big tech. The group’s sluggish action reflects ongoing macro headwinds, including tightening trade policies and interest rate uncertainty. The sharp reversal in Nvidia highlights how quickly market darlings can lose favor when regulatory and geopolitical pressures mount.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil jumped 3.03% to close at $64.36, continuing its recent rally off the $60 floor. Our long-term model still anticipates a move toward $50, where we plan to initiate new long positions. Gold slipped 0.27% to $3,337, pulling back slightly after Wednesday’s record high, though the metal remains in strong demand as a hedge against volatility and inflation. Bitcoin rose 0.86% to finish just above $85,000, right at our upper target zone. We continue to favor long trades between $77,000 and $83,000, taking profits north of $85K. However, price action below $77,000 remains a danger zone, with increased risk of a deeper correction.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 1.24% to 4.332%, reversing Wednesday’s dip and reinforcing the push-and-pull dynamic between inflation fears and demand for safety. Yields remain just below the critical 4.5% threshold, a level that, if breached again, could accelerate equity downside. With Powell striking a cautious tone and the Fed in wait-and-see mode, bond markets remain volatile. A push toward 4.8% or higher would likely spark broad equity liquidation, while yields below 4.3% offer only minimal relief given ongoing macro concerns. The bond market continues to flash warnings even as it absorbs mixed signals from the Fed.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Wednesday’s outlook projected a trading range of $515 to $535, with a bearish tilt. Key resistance levels were marked at $530, $532, and $535, while support levels sat at $523, $520, and $515. The strategy emphasized short trades on failed rallies into $530 or $532 and long setups if $520 held on a retest or if $530 was reclaimed. The AI forecast accurately highlighted elevated risk around $520 and flagged failed breakouts and breakdowns as tactical opportunities. With volatility high, a flexible approach was advised, including tight stops and reduced size.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

SPY’s Thursday session validated the forecasted range, trading between a low of $523.91 and a high of $531.17, closing at $526.41. The bias remained below $535 resistance, and the market’s attempt to push through $530 failed to gain traction. As projected, the $520 level held as a key floor, and price action hovered near the mid-range bias at $528. Short trades near $531 and long trades off $524 provided actionable opportunities. The market’s sideways drift matched expectations for a choppy, rangebound session with intraday reversals—a clear win for the model’s roadmap.

Premarket Analysis Summary

In Thursday’s premarket analysis posted at 7:54 AM, SPY was trading at $528.02, with a bias level identified at $528. The outlook called for a potentially sluggish session due to the holiday-shortened week, but highlighted upside attempts toward $532 and $535 if support held. Below $528, the forecast anticipated a drift to $525 and possibly $520. Sentiment leaned neutral to slightly bullish, with a preference for buying dips from support zones and shorting failures under key resistance.

Validation of the Analysis

Thursday’s action tracked closely with the premarket blueprint. SPY opened slightly above the $528 bias level and made a move toward the $531.17 high, falling just short of the $532 upside target. Dips to $524 were quickly bought, confirming the strength of the $525 support call. Despite mid-day weakness, SPY never lost key support, and late-day buying helped preserve the bullish tilt. The tight range around $528 confirmed it as a solid pivot. Traders who followed the strategy—buying dips and selling near resistance—were rewarded with multiple intraday opportunities.

Looking Ahead

Markets are closed Friday for Good Friday. Monday will be quiet with no scheduled economic data, though Tuesday brings Fed speak, followed by Wednesday’s PMI and Thursday’s Unemployment Claims. Given the holiday and light calendar, traders should expect low-volume drift early next week, but volatility could return quickly with fresh macro data and earnings releases.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY closed at $526.41, still below the pivotal $535 resistance, reinforcing a bearish-to-neutral sentiment. The market remains on edge with tariffs, inflation, and Fed policy in focus. Resistance is clustered at $530, $532, and $535. Bulls need to clear $535 decisively to shift momentum higher. On the downside, support lies at $525, $520, and $515. A break below $520 likely triggers another wave of selling, with a drop toward $500 increasingly probable. Sentiment is fragile, and both sides must stay alert to sudden narrative shifts and headline-driven price action.

Expected Price Action

Our AI model forecasts a trading range of $518 to $538 for Monday, reflecting a wide band and setting the stage for potential trending action. This is actionable intelligence. SPY remains in a bearish setup with key resistance at $532 and $535. If bulls can clear $535, expect a move toward $540 and possibly $545. However, if $525 gives way, we anticipate fast downside to $520 and $515. The market remains highly reactive to external catalysts. Watch for failed breakouts at $535 or failed breakdowns at $520. With the VIX at 29.65, volatility is still high, and traders should focus on clean setups near model levels.

Trading Strategy

Look for long trades above $525 or if SPY holds $520 on a retest, with upside targets at $530, $532, and $535. A break above $535 could trigger a squeeze to $540. Short setups remain viable below $520 or on failed moves toward $535. If $520 fails, watch for acceleration toward $511. Risk management is critical with volatility elevated. Keep stops tight near resistance, use wider stops on trending setups, and reduce size until a clear trend develops. VIX at 29.65 warns of fast reversals—trade cautiously and avoid overexposure.

Model’s Projected Range

The model’s maximum projected range for Tuesday is $514.75 to $539.25, with the Put-side continuing to dominate. This suggests ongoing weakness, interrupted by periods of consolidation within a narrowing—though still relatively wide—range. Expect two-way, choppy trading to persist until an external catalyst provides clear directional momentum. SPY closed at $526.41, well below the key $535 level, which now serves as a critical battleground favoring the bears. The bulls have relinquished the slight edge they previously held. While a short-term bottom may have formed, the broader market appears vulnerable to a renewed selloff in the $575–$585 zone, with the potential to revisit or breach recent lows. Historically, such declines often materialize 4 to 16 weeks after an initial bottom. We strongly recommend considering protective strategies or reducing long exposure if the market approaches stronger resistance zones. With earnings season underway, many companies are expected to cite tariffs as a factor behind muted or cautious forward guidance, adding to the elevated volatility already driven by current administration policies. Key Technical Levels for Monday: Resistance: $532, $535, $540, $545. Support: $525, $520, $517, $515. With SPY trading below the $535 threshold and limited news expected Monday, anticipate continued choppy price action. While the long weekend could introduce volatility with moves of ±10 points, a break below $520 may trigger a sharp drop, potentially retesting recent lows. Conversely, if bulls can hold the $520 level, SPY may back test $530 and potentially $535. Resistance at $535 remains firm, and any sustained move above it would be a meaningful bullish signal, possibly opening the path to $540. However, progress is likely to be slow and contested, with bulls needing to reclaim $585 to decisively regain control. Market Drivers: Tariffs, bond yields, and inflation remain the dominant macro forces and are expected to drive market action over the next 90 days—or until clearer signals emerge from the White House. The VIX closed at 29.65, reflecting heightened fear and the potential for deeper declines. The broader bearish trend channel originating from the December highs remains intact, with price currently trading mid-channel. While movement in either direction is possible within this structure, we expect price action to remain largely contained, with notable resistance near $565 and support around $475. Momentum has become increasingly non-directional. In this volatile environment, we continue to recommend staying nimble and prepared for swift shifts in market direction. 

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI is currently in a Ranging Market State, with price closing in the upper third of the range. The range is wide implying confusion and no clear direction for Sunday leading into Monday. Overnight, price gapped higher but traded in a narrow range until the open. The MSI rescaled to a bullish state and then to a ranging state prior to the open, flip flopping between the two all day. There were no extended targets when the MSI was in a bullish state and any move toward $535 quickly failed. Currently, MSI support stands at $523.35, with resistance at $528.35.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Wednesday, we noted: “Thursday is OPEX ahead of a three-day weekend, so expect a whippy, complex tape.” We also stated, “Our lean heading into Thursday is for price to remain in a narrow overnight range, likely oscillating between $525 and $531.” Lastly, we said, “Bad news could push SPY to revisit Wednesday’s lows, while good news may drive a test of the $535 area. Neither level looks ready to give way easily.” With this plan in mind, and SPY trading within the expected range overnight, there was little to do at the open. The MSI was in a ranging state, so we simply waited for a test of a major level or a shift in MSI to give us a clearer directional signal. We typically avoid trading during an MSI range, and that’s exactly what we had throughout the morning. By noon, the MSI transitioned to a Bullish Trending Market state. However, with price at $528 and no recognizable patterns to lean on, the setup didn’t inspire much confidence. That changed at 1:40 p.m. when we got a clean triple bottom. With the MSI firmly in a wide bullish state, we initiated a small, long position targeting resistance at $530. We reached that target by 2 p.m., and as the MSI continued to rescale higher, we held runners in hopes of a push toward $535. That push never came. Instead, a head and shoulders formed at $530, and we decided to reverse short—closing our long and targeting a move back to MSI support at $528. We hit that level by 3 p.m., moved our stop to breakeven, and rode our remaining position into the close. We picked up a few extra dollars and wrapped the day two-for-two on a sloppy, choppy tape—one we arguably should’ve sat out entirely. Still, we ended the week on a solid note: a strong Wednesday, no trades Monday, and a decent day today executing our plan in a disciplined manner all week. As always, we followed our core mantra: have a solid plan, execute with discipline, and let the MSI and model levels guide every decision. The MSI reveals who’s in control, when control shifts, and where key actionable levels lie—enabling precise entries and exits. Paired with our model levels and daily strategy, it keeps us aligned with dominant market forces. It continues to deliver with high precision—helping traders avoid traps, stay in sync with momentum, and take profits with confidence. We strongly recommend integrating the MSI into your trading toolkit. When paired with a structured plan, it becomes a powerful engine for long-term performance.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Monday brings no scheduled economic data, but after a three-day weekend, anything can happen—we could easily wake up to SPY up or down $10. Barring some unexpected event, we expect continued chop and consolidation with occasional bursts of trending action until a true external catalyst shifts the market dynamic. Absent a macro driver, our lean heading into Monday is for SPY to remain in a narrow overnight range, likely oscillating between $524 and $532. Bad news could send SPY back to Wednesday’s lows, while good news may see a test of $535. Neither level looks likely to give way easily. Notably, the wall of resistance above $535 is heavier and more complex than the support below $520. If $520 breaks, expect an elevator down. If $535 breaks, the move will likely be a slower, more deliberate stair-step higher. A back test of $530 and then $535 is likely, but $535 is expected to fail on the first attempt, triggering a pullback. However, if SPY first retests $520 and fails there, brace for a sharp leg lower—possibly toward $500 or beyond. Below $520, it’s lights out for the bulls. Control has moved decisively to the bears, erasing any edge bulls held earlier in the week. Bulls don’t regain any control unless price reclaims $535. A clean break above opens the door to $545 and potentially $550. Until then, caution is warranted. As always—trade what you see. Lean on the MSI and stay nimble. The MSI updates in real time, revealing intraday structure and momentum shifts—keeping you from anchoring to stale narratives or outdated assumptions. For Monday, two-way trading remains advisable. Focus on failed breakouts and breakdowns. Avoid trading into extended targets or fighting a wide MSI range. The Premarket Report gives you fresh data and AI-driven insights to shape your daily strategy. The MSI reveals real-time momentum and control shifts. Our model levels define high-probability targets and precision entry zones. As volatility cools, SPY’s pace may slow and the MSI range may normalize—another reason to let the data guide your decisions. Respect extended targets. They reflect conviction and herd-driven behavior. Used together, the MSI and model levels help you stay in sync with dominant market forces and avoid costly missteps. If you’re not already using these tools, now is the time. Connect with your rep—these are game-changers in environments like this.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling $536 to $565 and higher strike Calls while buying $527 to $535 Calls indicating the Dealers desire to participate in any rally on Monday. Dealers are no longer selling close to the money Puts. Dealers nailed their positioning for today given the market rose slightly. To the downside Dealers are buying $526 to $480 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls they are selling/buying, implying a neutral to slightly bullish posture for Monday. Dealer positioning has changed from extremely bullish to neutral/slightly bullish.   
Looking Ahead to next Friday:
Dealers are selling $539 to $570 and higher strike Calls while also buying $527 to $538 Calls implying the Dealers desire to participate in any rally next week. To the downside, Dealers are buying $526 to $435 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they’re buying/selling. This reflects a slightly bearish outlook for next week however much of the Dealers Put protection is at far lower prices than the market has seen recently implying the Dealers are protecting against a crash but aren’t necessarily bearish for the week. Dealer positioning is relatively unchanged from bearish to bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly, and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

With SPY closing at $526.41 and the VIX still elevated at 29.65, traders should remain nimble and risk-conscious. Long trades can be considered if SPY holds above $520 with upside targets at $525 and $530. A move above $535 opens a potential push toward $540. On the downside, short setups become actionable below $520 or above $532. Below $520, the market may move quickly toward $511. Use tight stops and smaller position sizes to manage risk, especially heading into a low-volume Monday session. As volatility remains high, avoid overtrading and focus on clear setups near key levels. Review our premarket analysis posted before 9:00 AM ET for updated insights and Dealer positioning changes.

Good luck and good trading!