Market Insights: Tuesday, April 15th, 2025

Market Overview

Stocks closed slightly lower Tuesday in what felt like a calm pause after several sessions dominated by tariff headlines. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow lost about 0.4%, and the Nasdaq slipped just 0.1% after all three had shown early strength. Markets were largely subdued, digesting Monday's volatile surge and the latest from the White House, where some clarity around auto sector exemptions briefly eased tensions. However, that relief was tempered by President Trump signaling new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The market seems to be stuck between momentary optimism and the reality of an evolving and unpredictable trade policy. Investors also weighed earnings reports from major players like Bank of America, Citi, Johnson & Johnson, and PNC, offering fresh insight into how corporate America is weathering the storm. Boeing came under pressure, falling around 2% after reports that Chinese airlines were told to pause new jet deliveries. Though Tuesday lacked the drama of prior sessions, traders remained cautious, watching closely to see how tariffs might trickle down into guidance and margins moving forward.

SPY Performance

SPY slipped 0.28% to close at $537.61 after opening at $539.69. It managed to push up to $543.23 but couldn’t hold gains and fell to a session low of $536.81 before stabilizing into the close. Volume remained light at 51.38 million shares, below average, suggesting a lack of conviction among buyers or sellers perhaps due to the shortened week. SPY continues to hover above the key $535 level, but without a catalyst, bulls appear hesitant to press toward resistance. The intraday fade shows vulnerability, even as the broader trend remains slightly constructive.

Major Indices Performance

The Russell 2000 led the major averages with a slight 0.07% gain, showing small-cap resilience. The Nasdaq followed closely with a 0.05% dip, while the S&P 500 lost 0.2%, and the Dow underperformed with a 0.38% decline. Tuesday's session was marked by low conviction and consolidative price action. After last week's tariff-induced chaos, investors caught their breath, looking for direction. Defensive sectors showed some strength, while tech and industrials took a breather. The quiet action likely reflects market participants waiting for midweek economic updates to reset directional bias.

Notable Stock Movements

Among the Magnificent Seven, action was mixed. Tesla, Nvidia, and Netflix posted modest gains, helping balance broader tech weakness. Meta, Google, and Amazon led the downside, with Meta again being the weakest performer as regulatory pressure continues to weigh on sentiment. These diverging moves underscore a market in transition, where even high-profile names are reacting more to sector-specific news and headline risk than broad momentum. Overall, tech struggled to build on Monday’s gains, keeping sentiment in check.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil rose 0.16% to hold at $61.60, extending its grind along the $60 threshold. Our model continues to project a move toward $50, where we would look to initiate long positions. Gold was nearly flat, up just 0.03% to settle at $3,248, indicating some short-term stability after recent swings. Bitcoin dipped 0.75%, closing just above $83,800. We remain buyers between $77,000 and $83,000, targeting profits above $85,000. However, any drop below $77,000 could signal deeper losses, so caution is warranted at lower levels.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.96% to close at 4.322%, extending its recent retreat from the critical 4.5% level. This softening in yields continues to offer modest relief to equities, as investors seek safety in the bond market. Still, any reversal higher—particularly a move above 4.5% or worse, 4.8%—would reintroduce pressure on risk assets. With inflation and tariff uncertainty still elevated, yields remain a key market driver.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Monday’s outlook projected a SPY trading range of $533 to $550, with a bullish bias contingent on holding above $535. Upside targets included $543 and $545, while failure at $535 was expected to prompt a move to $530. Long trades were favored above $535, with shorts targeting breakdowns at $535 or lower. The strategy emphasized staying nimble amid volatility, looking for momentum above resistance and watching for breakdowns if price failed to hold support. Monday’s analysis outlined a market poised for upside attempts but susceptible to reversal if key levels gave way.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

SPY’s actual session aligned well with the forecast, trading from a low of $536.81 to a high of $543.23 before closing at $537.61—entirely within the projected range. Monday’s forecast accurately emphasized $535 as a must-hold level for bulls, which held once again. The $543 resistance level acted as a ceiling, validating the model’s call for a tough fight in that zone. The call for long entries near $535 and short setups near $543 provided tradable setups, both of which materialized as the market tested both extremes. The day’s action ultimately supported the model’s view of a narrow, choppy session with limited follow-through.

Premarket Analysis Summary

In Tuesday’s premarket analysis posted at 7:45 AM, SPY was trading at $538.71, with a bias level pegged right at $538. The analysis anticipated upward pushes toward $542 and $545 if $538 held, while a drop below would open downside targets at $534 and $530. The tone called for fragile upside attempts and warned that once a direction took hold, it would likely dominate the day. Long trades were favored from support zones, while shorts would be triggered on a confirmed break below $538. The strategy emphasized letting one side “fold first” before taking directional trades.

Validation of the Analysis

Tuesday’s session played out with remarkable alignment to the premarket outlook. SPY held the $538 bias level early, climbed to test $543.23, then rolled over as upside momentum faded. The fade below $538 triggered a drop toward the lower target of $536.81, which essentially tested the $534 zone without fully breaking it. This back-and-forth behavior highlighted the forecast’s warning of two-way trading and emphasized the value of reacting to directional breaks. Traders who followed the premarket guide had solid opportunities on both sides of the market, once again proving the analysis to be precise and highly actionable.

Looking Ahead

Wednesday is expected to bring more market-moving events, including Retail Sales data and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Both could provide clarity on the economy’s health and interest rate outlook—two critical components shaping current market sentiment. These updates could trigger renewed volatility, especially if they influence expectations around inflation or Fed policy. With markets in a holding pattern, traders should be ready for a pickup in momentum following Wednesday’s releases.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY closed Tuesday at $537.61, holding just above the key $535 support level. Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish, but the inability to sustain above $543 suggests fading momentum. Resistance is layered from $540 to $550, with the $545–$550 zone proving difficult for bulls to overcome. Key support levels remain at $535, $532, and $530, with a break of $530 likely triggering a deeper correction toward $525 or even $520. The bulls are still clinging to control, but their grip is slipping. Powell’s speech and economic data could be the catalysts that determine whether they hold the line or get pushed back.

Expected Price Action

Our AI model forecasts a trading range of $530 to $545 for Wednesday, with a slightly bearish lean. This is actionable intelligence. The potential for choppy, sideways trading remains high as the market continues consolidating. If SPY holds above $535, look for upside moves toward $540 and $545. A breakout above $545 would open the door to $550, though strong resistance sits just beyond. Conversely, if SPY breaks below $535, the model targets $530 and potentially $525. A decisive break under $520 would suggest a major shift lower. Traders should remain flexible, watching for failed breakouts and breakdowns near these major levels. Powell’s remarks and Retail Sales may provide the directional spark.

Trading Strategy

Long trades remain viable on dips to $535, with upside targets at $540, $543, and $545. If SPY breaks through $545 with volume, look for a move to $550. Tighten stops as SPY approaches resistance zones, especially near $545, where sellers have consistently stepped in. Shorts become attractive on failed breakouts into $543 or $545, particularly if SPY breaks back below $535, setting up downside targets of $530 and $525. The VIX closed at 30.12, still elevated but easing, allowing for tactical setups on both sides. Maintain smaller position sizes and use wider stops when trading key levels to avoid getting whipsawed in the volatility.

Model’s Projected Range

The model’s maximum projected range for Tuesday is $528 to $549, with Put-side dominating. This suggests continued consolidation within a tightening range, favoring a potential retest of major support at $535—or possibly lower. As the range narrows further, expect two-way, choppy trading conditions to persist until an external catalyst sparks directional momentum. SPY closed at $537.61, holding above the key $535 level—giving bulls a slight edge. While a short-term bottom may be forming, it remains likely that the broader market resumes its selloff between $575 and $585, potentially revisiting or breaking below recent lows. Historically, such moves tend to unfold 4 to 16 weeks from the prior bottom. We strongly advise considering protective strategies or reducing long exposure if the market pushes higher into stronger resistance zones. With earnings season underway, many companies are expected to cite tariffs as a reason to soften or sidestep guidance, adding to the already elevated volatility driven by current administration policies. Key Technical Levels for Wednesday: Resistance: $540, $543, $545, and $550. Support: $535, $532, $530, and $525. The $535 level continues to hold firm—an encouraging sign for the bulls. However, the market feels heavy and appears poised to move lower at the first sign of negative news. The next major challenge for bulls lies in the $545–$550 zone, a heavily defended area in the options market, with resistance extending up to $555. This suggests that any upward progress will likely be slow and contested. Bulls ultimately aim to reclaim the $585 level to decisively regain control. Conversely, a break below $535 reopens the door to $530, and potentially $520. A decisive break under $520 could put $500—or even lower—on the table. Market Drivers continue to be tariffs, bond yields, and inflation—all of which are dominating the macro landscape. These are expected to steer price action over the next 90 days or until greater clarity emerges from the White House. The VIX closed at 30.12, reflecting some recent calm but still elevated relative to historical norms. The broader bearish trend channel, which began with the December highs, remains intact, with price action near the upper boundary. While movement in both directions is possible within this structure, we expect price to stay largely contained, with notable resistance near $565 and support around $475. Momentum has turned less directional, though bulls maintain a slight edge heading into Wednesday. Given the backdrop of heightened volatility, we continue to recommend staying nimble and prepared for rapid shifts in market direction. 

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI is currently in a Bullish Trending Market State, with price closing well above the MSI resistance-turned-support level. The range remains extremely narrow, and there are no extended targets above—signaling a weak bull trend that appears to be topping out…identical to yesterday. Overnight, price gapped up slightly and once again traded within a very tight range between $537 and $543. Extended targets were active during the morning session, which helped keep the price elevated. However, extended targets stopped printing at noon, and price subsequently moved back toward the major $535 level, closing at $537.61. Currently, MSI support stands at $534.84, with a secondary level just slightly lower at $534.60, both unchanged from Monday.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Monday, we noted: “the market appears to be topping out—at least for now.” We also stated, “as long as $535 holds, bulls have the ball and are likely to push toward $545.” Finally, we advised that “two-way trading remains advisable—ideally targeting failed breakouts and failed breakdowns.” With that plan in mind—and in a setup very similar to Monday—SPY opened with a textbook failed breakout at a key premarket level: $542. Unfortunately, extended targets were printing below price, and we never fight those under any circumstances. So, we sat on our hands and waited for another opportunity. Extended targets continued printing through the morning session, so there was nothing for us to do but stay patient. By 1 p.m., extended targets stopped appearing, but price was stuck in no man’s land, and without a clear pattern to lean on, we held off—hoping SPY might revisit MSI support and offer a long setup. That never materialized, so we called it a day around 2 p.m., ending the day without a trade. That happens more often than you might think. In a sideways market—like today—it’s common for the best you can get is a one-target scalp. Today, we didn’t even get that because we refuse to go against the MSI’s extended targets. We didn’t add anything to the bank today, but that’s perfectly fine. Not every day sets up as you hope. What matters most is having a solid plan, executing it with discipline, and letting the MSI and model levels guide every decision. The MSI shows who’s in control, when that control shifts, and where the key actionable levels are—empowering precise entries and exits. When paired with our model levels and daily strategy, the MSI keeps us aligned with dominant market forces. It continues to deliver with high precision—helping traders avoid traps, stay in sync with momentum, and take profits with confidence. We strongly recommend integrating the MSI into your trading toolkit. Paired with a structured plan, it becomes a powerful engine for long-term performance.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Wednesday brings Retail Sales and remarks from Chair Powell along with other Fed members. While any event can move the market, we expect another slow, choppy session with occasional bursts of trending price action. One potential wildcard is the administration’s continued comments on tariff policy—something that could shift sentiment quickly. Our lean going into Wednesday: we anticipate a pullback overnight toward MSI support at $535, where the bulls will likely attempt a defense. A failure at $535 opens the door to $532, then $530. Should $530 give way, the market could revisit $520 or lower. The market continues to feel heavy at these levels, with uncertainty dominating the narrative. This fragile state may encourage traders to lighten positions ahead of the three-day weekend, potentially pushing prices below $535. If that happens, expect renewed bearish momentum and a stronger push lower. Right now, the bulls have only a slight advantage—any weakness wipes that out quickly. A failure to hold $535 would set the stage for a tug-of-war that likely won't resolve until a clear catalyst—good or bad—emerges from the White House. MSI is currently in a narrow bullish state, and as the market continues to top out, we expect it to rescale on Wednesday. That would be welcome—it allows us to reset and assess the new structure with fresh eyes. As long as $535 holds, bulls have the ball and could push toward $545 and $550. Between $535 and $545, bulls will try to build energy for a breakout above $550, though doing so is becoming increasingly difficult amid headline-driven volatility. As always, trade what you see. Rely on the MSI and stay flexible. If bulls hold $535, we’ll likely see a retest of $545. If $535 fails, SPY could quickly drop to $530. A break of $530 brings $520 into play—and below $520, it’s lights out for the bulls. Fortunately, the MSI updates in real time, delivering actionable intraday structure and momentum insights—keeping you from relying on stale narratives or outdated assumptions. For Wednesday, two-way trading remains advisable, ideally targeting failed breakouts and breakdowns. Avoid fighting extended targets or trading against a wide MSI state. The Premarket Report brings together fresh data and AI-driven insights to help you build a strategic plan, while the MSI reveals real-time momentum shifts and key inflection points. Our model levels define high-probability targets and precise entry zones. As volatility cools, expect SPY’s pace to slow further and for MSI’s range to normalize. Keep a close eye on the MSI—it offers critical visibility into who’s in control and where momentum is concentrated. Respect extended targets—they reflect strong conviction and herd-driven behavior. Used together, the MSI and model levels keep you aligned with market forces and help you avoid costly missteps. If you're not already using these tools, now is the time. Connect with your rep—these are game-changers in markets like this.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling $542 to $565 and higher strike Calls while buying $538 to $541 Calls indicating the Dealers desire to participate in any rally on Wednesday to as high as $550. To the downside Dealers are buying $537 to $490 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls they are selling/buying, implying a slightly bearish posture for Wednesday. Dealer positioning has changed from neutral/slightly bullish to slightly bearish.   
Looking Ahead to Thursday (Friday is a holiday):
Dealers are selling $557 to $585 and higher strike Calls while also buying $538 to $556 Calls in large size indicating the Dealers strong desire to participate in any rally this week. Dealers are heavy long Calls indicating a firm belief the market will move higher this week. To the downside, Dealers are buying $537 to $475 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls they’re buying/selling. This reflects a slightly bearish outlook for the week. Dealer positioning is unchanged from slightly bearish to slightly bearish. Dealers hold large amounts of downside protection, yet they appear positioned for a rally that may develop this week. While the ratio is a bit bearish, the way Dealers are positioned, not selling any Calls below $557, leads us to believe, the Dealers anticipate higher prices, to as high as $560. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly, and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

With SPY stuck near the $537 zone and resistance looming at $540–$545, traders should look to initiate long trades on dips to $535, aiming for upside targets of $540 and $545. If price pushes above $545 with conviction, look for a continuation toward $550. Short trades can be initiated on failed moves at $543 or $545, particularly if price drops back below $535—then targeting $530 and possibly $525. The VIX remains elevated at 30.12, so reduce position sizes and tighten risk controls, especially around major news events like Powell’s speech or Retail Sales data. Maintain discipline and stay flexible—key levels continue to dictate price action. Remember to review our premarket analysis posted before 9:00 AM ET for updates on Dealer Positioning and any shifts in strategy.

Good luck and good trading!