Market Insights: Monday, April 14th, 2025

Market Overview

Stocks extended their rebound Monday as investors welcomed a temporary pause on tech-related tariffs, even as recession fears linger. The S&P 500 climbed 0.8%, the Dow gained more than 300 points, or 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6%, though all three finished well off their highs. Tech led the early rally after Apple and Nvidia were spared in the latest round of tariffs, as President Trump’s team announced that smartphones, computers, and consumer electronics would be excluded from levies—for now. This reprieve sparked optimism, with Apple up more than 2% on the day, while auto stocks like Ford and GM also gained ground on speculation that car parts could also be exempted. Still, the relief rally was tempered by mixed signals from the White House, with conflicting messages about whether the exemptions would hold. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested levies could still come later, and Trump warned that the entire electronics supply chain could be under scrutiny. While Monday’s gains show the market’s appetite for good news, underlying uncertainty remains high. Treasury yields dipped and the dollar weakened, pointing to lingering caution as Wall Street awaits earnings and further tariff updates.

SPY Performance

SPY rose 0.94% to close at $538.97 after opening at $544.05. It reached a session high of $544.28 before slipping back and tested a low of $533.86 mid-day. Volume came in below recent peaks at 63.96 million shares, but the close well above $535 confirms bullish resilience at this critical zone. Despite trimming gains, SPY has now strung together back-to-back advances and looks poised to challenge the $543–$545 zone, where bulls face their next major resistance test.

Major Indices Performance

The Russell 2000 outperformed Monday with a gain of 1.19%, showing strength in small caps amid a broad-based rally. The S&P 500 added 0.8%, followed by the Dow with a 0.78% rise. The Nasdaq brought up the rear with a 0.64% gain, despite early strength in tech names. The session was shaped by news that key electronics were temporarily excluded from new tariffs, lifting risk sentiment. Sector performance skewed positive, led by consumer tech and autos, while more defensive sectors lagged as risk appetite improved slightly. Traders remain cautious, however, as markets continue to process evolving trade headlines and await key economic reports later in the week.

Notable Stock Movements

Apple led among the Magnificent Seven, rising over 2% on the back of tariff relief for smartphones and other electronics. Netflix, Alphabet, and Tesla also posted gains, reflecting a return of appetite for growth stocks. However, Meta was the weakest link, dropping more than 2.2% as investors rotated out of social media names amid ongoing regulatory pressure. Overall, the group was mixed, but strength in Apple and Tesla helped support broader tech sentiment even as some names struggled to maintain momentum.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates

Crude oil inched up just 0.16% to $61.60, continuing to grind along near the $60 level that has been our long-standing downside target. With energy markets still volatile and geopolitical risks elevated, we expect a further drop toward $50 in the coming weeks, where we’ll look to go long. Gold slipped 0.56% to $3,226 after its recent surge, showing some consolidation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin rallied 1.59% to close above $84,900. We remain buyers in the $77,000–$83,000 range, with plans to take profits above $85,000. Any dip below $77,000 carries significant downside risk.

Treasury Yield Information

The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back sharply, falling 2.43% to 4.384%. This retreat below the key 4.5% threshold provided some relief to equity markets, helping extend the rally in stocks. While yields are still elevated compared to recent months, the move down suggests investors are seeking safety amid lingering uncertainty about the trajectory of inflation and tariffs. Markets will remain sensitive to any push back toward 4.8% or higher, which would reintroduce downside risk for equities.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis

Friday’s forecast outlined a projected range for SPY of $515 to $550, with a bullish lean if $535 could be reclaimed and held. Resistance was seen at $535 and $540, while support was marked at $527 and $520. The model favored long setups above $535 with upside targets toward $540 and $543. Short opportunities were expected on failed breakouts or any breach of $527, with a move back to $520 as a likely outcome. The strategy also emphasized the importance of trading with momentum and being responsive to price action around key levels, particularly in an environment driven by external headlines.

Market Performance vs. Forecast

SPY opened Monday at $544.05, surged briefly to $544.28, then slid to a low of $533.86 before rebounding to close at $538.97—well within the forecasted range of $515 to $550. The model’s $535 support level held early in the session and ultimately helped guide the recovery, validating the bias toward long trades above that mark. The market failed to sustain above the initial resistance at $540, and the pullback toward $534 confirmed the forecast’s caution about upside stalling without strong volume. Overall, Monday’s movement was in line with expectations, offering profitable entries both on the dip toward support and the rebound into resistance.

Premarket Analysis Summary

In Monday’s premarket analysis posted at 7:50 AM, SPY was trading at $541.66 with a bias level pegged at $540. The model suggested that upward attempts would be likely but possibly muted, with targets at $543 and an extended move to $550. If SPY failed to hold $540, a drop toward 532.75 and then 530.25 was expected. The tone favored long trades above $540 and shorts if that level broke from below. The analysis also anticipated choppy movement if SPY dropped into the $530–$540 zone, suggesting traders should be cautious and reactive around support levels.

Validation of the Analysis

The premarket forecast nailed Monday’s action. SPY held above the bias level at $540 early but failed to generate sustained momentum to reach $550. It tagged the $544 area before fading and briefly dipped into the 533–534 region—a move that aligned with the short target of 532.75. SPY then rallied again into the close, finishing just shy of $539. The market action unfolded almost exactly as expected, offering long opportunities from support and confirming the anticipated rangebound behavior. Traders who followed the premarket guide had multiple chances to enter profitable trades at well-defined levels.

Looking Ahead

Tuesday brings no new economic data, leaving markets to digest recent price action and await key updates later in the week. Wednesday’s calendar includes Retail Sales and a speech from Fed Chair Powell—both of which are likely to have an impact. With volatility still elevated and tariff headlines continuing to dominate the narrative, traders should expect continued headline-driven movement. As earnings season ramps up, guidance revisions tied to tariffs or inflation could act as new catalysts, pushing markets in either direction.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

SPY closed at $538.97, continuing to edge higher after reclaiming key support at $535. Sentiment remains cautiously bullish, but resistance is building in the $543–$550 zone. Key resistance levels for Tuesday include $543, $545, and $550, while support now lies at $537, $535, and $530. Reclaiming $540 was a win for the bulls, but the next big test is whether SPY can break and hold above $545. A move above that level could set the stage for a rally toward $555, though sellers are likely to remain active. If $535 fails, expect a quick trip to $530, with risk of further downside.

Expected Price Action

Our AI model forecasts a trading range of $533 to $550 for Tuesday—moderately wide, but much narrower than recent days. The potential is for choppy two way trading with periods of trending price action. The near-term bias is bullish, with momentum favoring upside pushes toward $543 and $545. If SPY clears $545 with strong volume, look for a move to $550 or even $555. On the flip side, a breakdown below $535 could send the market back to $530, with $520 as a deeper downside target. This is actionable intelligence: traders should focus on entries near support and be prepared to flip bias quickly if SPY reverses from resistance.

Trading Strategy

Long trades remain favorable above $535 with upside targets at $540 and $545. If SPY breaks above $545, bulls could extend the run toward $550 and $555. Traders should tighten stops near $545, as resistance is thick in that zone. Short setups become attractive on failed rallies at $543 or $545, especially if SPY drops back below $535, targeting $530 and $525. With the VIX still high at 30.88, risk remains elevated, so reduce position sizes and avoid chasing price. Use wider stop losses around key levels and stay flexible—this is still a headline-driven market with sudden reversals possible.

Model’s Projected Range

The model’s maximum projected range for Tuesday is $530.75 to $553, with the Call-side dominating. This suggests consolidation within a tightening range. As the range narrows significantly, expect two-way, choppy trading conditions to persist until an external catalyst moves the market. SPY closed at $539.12, above the key $535 level where bulls are gaining control from the bears. While a short-term bottom may be forming, it remains highly likely that the market resumes its selloff between $575 and $585, potentially revisiting recent lows—or moving even lower. We strongly advise considering protective strategies or reducing long exposure if the market approaches this resistance zone. With earnings season underway, companies may begin citing tariffs to soften or sidestep guidance. This could further increase volatility already heightened by current administration policies. Key Technical Levels for Tuesday: Resistance: $543, $545, and $550. Support: $537, $535, and $530. The $535 level held firm throughout the session today—a win for the bulls. We previously suggested that repeated tests of this level would likely lead to a move toward $540, which was achieved today. The next major hurdle is the $545–$550 zone, where significant resistance lies. This resistance extends higher, reaching up to $555, suggesting any upward move will be slow and hard-fought. Bulls ultimately aim to reclaim the $585 level to decisively shift control. Conversely, a break below $535 reopens the door to $530 and potentially $520. A decisive break below $520 would likely bring $500 or lower into play. Notably, while resistance above $540 to $555 remains strong, support below $535 is relatively weak. Market Drivers: Tariffs, bond yields, and inflation continue to dominate the macro landscape and are expected to steer price action over the next 90 days—or until more clarity emerges from the White House. The VIX closed at 30.88, reflecting a level of calm not seen in the past two weeks. The broader bearish trend channel, which began with the December highs, remains intact. Currently, price action sits near the upper end of the channel. While movement in both directions is possible within this structure, we expect price to remain largely contained, with notable resistance near $565 and support around $475. Momentum has become less directional, though bulls currently hold a slight edge heading into Tuesday. Given recent extreme volatility, we continue to recommend staying nimble and prepared for rapid shifts in market direction. 

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI is currently in a Bullish Trending Market State, with price closing well above the MSI resistance-turned-support level. The range remains extremely narrow, and there are no extended targets above—signaling a weak bull trend that appears to be topping out. Overnight, price gapped up and traded within a very tight range between $540 and $543. Extended targets were active during part of the morning session, which helped keep the price elevated. However, these targets stopped printing by 11 a.m., and price subsequently retested the MSI resistance-turned-support level. By noon, the MSI rescaled to its current state, supporting a return move toward the day’s highs. However, this move failed to hold, and SPY sold off after 3 p.m. once extended targets ceased printing again. Currently, MSI support stands at $534.84, with a secondary level just slightly lower at $534.60.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
On Friday, we noted: “With the MSI currently in a wide bullish state, the market has room to attempt further upside.” We also stated, “If bulls defend $530 and consolidate near $535, a breakout could trigger a slow grind toward $540 and beyond.” Finally, we concluded, “Monday Strategy: Two-way trading is advisable—ideally targeting failed breakouts and failed breakdowns.” With this plan in hand and the market gapping up in the premarket, already testing major resistance at $543, we were prepared to look for a failed breakout at that level—expecting two-way action in line with our strategy. Just after the open, SPY delivered a textbook failed breakout at the premarket’s major level of $543. This triggered a short entry shortly after extended targets stopped printing. With MSI support all the way down at $535, we looked again to the premarket for the next key level for our first target. $540 had been highlighted in both the post- and premarket, so we took our first target there and held 30% of our position for a second, lower target. However, price failed to follow through to the downside and began to drift back toward the highs. At 10:56 a.m., another failed breakout formed, and extended targets again ceased printing. We reloaded our short at the $543 level, once more targeting $540 as the first target. That target was hit quickly, and we held for a second target at MSI support at $534.80. By 12:10 p.m., our second target was achieved, and we considered the possibility of further downside—but that didn’t materialize. Instead, SPY set up a textbook failed breakdown, prompting us to reverse long from $535—our model’s major level and MSI support. With all our tools and analysis aligned—premarket, postmarket, and MSI—we sized up with conviction, expecting SPY to grind toward $540. That target was hit, and we took off 70% of the position, holding the rest for a second target at $543. SPY didn’t quite reach that level, forming a double top at $542. Given the extremely narrow MSI, we chose to exit this last long and call it a day. That proved to be the right call, as SPY sold off into the close. Two clean short trades and one well-sized long gave us a strong start to the week. The key was having a solid plan, executing it with discipline, and letting the MSI and model levels guide every decision. The MSI shows who’s in control, when that control shifts, and where the key actionable levels lie—empowering precise entries and exits. When combined with our model levels and daily strategy, it keeps us aligned with dominant market forces. MSI continues to deliver high precision—helping traders avoid traps, stay in sync with momentum, and take profits with confidence. We strongly recommend integrating the MSI into your trading toolkit. Paired with a structured plan, it becomes a powerful engine for long-term performance.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Tuesday brings no major economic data, but as with Monday, the tariff situation remains the dominant market mover, with price action reacting sharply to headlines out of the White House. Today, the bulls successfully defended and broke above $535, giving them further control. With the MSI currently in a very narrow bullish state, the market appears to be topping out—at least for now—as it awaits additional clarity from the administration. Still, as long as $535 holds, bulls have the ball and are likely to push toward $545 and $550. In the meantime, expect the market to bounce within a range between $535 and $545 as it builds energy for a potential breakout above $550. That said, conviction remains elusive. It’s difficult to maintain a strong directional bias amid headline-driven volatility. As always, we recommend trading what you see—relying on your tools and staying flexible. If bulls hold $535, we’ll likely see a retest of $545. If $535 fails, SPY could quickly move down to $530—and should that level break, $520 is back in play. Below $520, it’s lights out for the bulls. While bulls currently have the edge, bears are not far behind. External forces are still the primary catalyst, making it risky to lean too heavily on models alone. The key is adaptability—let the market reveal its hand. Fortunately, the MSI updates in real time, providing actionable intraday structure and momentum insights. It keeps you from trading off outdated assumptions or stale narratives. For Tuesday, two-way trading remains advisable—ideally targeting failed breakouts and failed breakdowns. Avoid fighting extended targets or trading against a wide MSI state. Respect the tools. The Premarket Report combines fresh data and AI-driven insights to help you build a strategic plan. The MSI reveals real-time structure, momentum shifts, and key inflection points. Our model levels define high-probability targets and entry zones. Stay nimble. Adapt. Trade what you see—not what you think. As volatility cools, expect SPY’s pace to slow and the MSI’s range to normalize. Keep a close eye on the MSI—it offers critical, real-time visibility into who’s in control and where momentum is concentrated. Respect extended targets—they reflect strong conviction and herd-driven behavior. Used together, the MSI and model levels help keep you aligned with market forces and avoid costly missteps. If you're not already using these tools, now is the time. Connect with your rep—these are game-changers in markets like this.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Summary of Current Dealer Positioning:
Dealers are selling $540 to $570 and higher strike Calls implying the Dealers belief there is little additional upside for Tuesday. To the downside Dealers are buying $539 to $514 and lower strike Puts in a 1:1 ratio to the Calls they are buying, implying a neutral to slightly bullish posture for Tuesday. Dealer positioning is unchanged from Friday staying from neutral/slightly bullish to neutral/slightly bullish.   
Looking Ahead to Thursday (Friday is a holiday):
Dealers are selling $557 to $585 and higher strike Calls while also buying $540 to $556 Calls in large size indicating the Dealers strong desire to participate in any rally this week. Dealers are heavy long Calls indicating a firm belief the market will move higher this week. To the downside, Dealers are buying $539 to $497 and lower strike Puts in a 2:1 ratio to the Calls they’re buying/selling. This reflects a slightly bearish outlook for the week. Dealer positioning is unchanged from slightly bearish to slightly bearish. Dealers hold large amounts of downside protection, yet they appear positioned for a major rally that may develop later this week. While the ratio is a bit bearish, the way Dealers are positioned, not selling any Calls below $557 leads us to believe, the Dealers anticipate higher prices, to as high as $560. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly, and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders

Traders should stay nimble as SPY trades near critical resistance at $543–$545. Long trades can be initiated on dips to $535 with upside targets of $540, $545, and potentially $550. If price breaks above $545 with strength, look for extended moves toward $555. Shorts are valid on failed rallies at $543 or $545, especially if SPY drops below $535—setting up downside targets of $530 and $520. With the VIX at 30.88, volatility remains elevated but is easing slightly, offering room for more tactical trades. Manage stop-losses carefully and use reduced position sizing around key levels. Remember to review our premarket analysis posted before 9:00 AM ET for updates on Dealer Positioning and any shifts in strategy.

Good luck and good trading!