Market Insights: Friday, January 30th, 2026

Market Overview
US stocks slid on Friday, capping a volatile end to both the week and the month as a major shift in Federal Reserve leadership expectations, a surging US dollar, and a sudden collapse in precious metals weighed heavily on sentiment. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9%, extending the recent pullback in technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also declined roughly 0.4%, reflecting broad-based but orderly selling rather than panic. Despite the day’s weakness, all three major indices managed to finish January modestly higher, underscoring the resilience of the broader uptrend even as volatility increased. The Dow and Nasdaq logged their third consecutive weekly losses, while the S&P 500 snapped its losing streak with a small gain over the past five sessions, highlighting uneven participation beneath the surface.

Markets were rattled after President Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, a move that immediately forced investors to reassess the future path of monetary policy. Warsh, a former Fed governor, is widely viewed as hawkish based on his historical stance on interest rates, even though he has recently voiced support for rate cuts, aligning more closely with Trump’s public pressure on the central bank. The prospect of Warsh at the helm pushed the US dollar sharply higher, as markets priced in the possibility of a firmer policy bias. That currency move triggered a violent reversal in the precious metals complex, bringing 2026’s blistering metals rally to a screeching halt. Gold plunged below the $5,000 level after reaching record highs earlier in the week, while silver collapsed more than 25% in its largest single-day drop on record, marking one of the most dramatic commodity reversals in decades.

Trade policy remained another overhang. Trump warned that the US could impose a 50% tariff on Canadian aircraft imports and said the US would decertify new jets from companies such as Bombardier, accusing Canada of using certification rules to effectively block US aircraft. Mexico also came into focus after Trump threatened new tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, reinforcing concerns that trade tensions could flare up again with little notice. On the earnings front, Apple shares rose after the company reported quarterly profits that topped expectations, driven by record iPhone sales. However, CEO Tim Cook cautioned that a global memory shortage could pressure margins going forward, tempering enthusiasm. Elsewhere, Sandisk rallied following upbeat forward guidance, while Exxon and Chevron posted modest earnings beats. Results from American Express and Verizon were also in focus, adding to an already busy earnings backdrop. Taken together, Friday’s session reflected a market grappling with a powerful shift in macro assumptions, a sharp unwind of crowded trades, and renewed policy uncertainty, all while remaining structurally intact above key support levels.

SPY Performance
SPY traded in a wide, volatile range before finishing modestly lower, reflecting the crosscurrents of policy shock and profit taking. The ETF opened at $691.71, pushed up to an intraday high of $694.21, and then sold off sharply to a low of $687.12 before stabilizing into the close. SPY finished the session at $691.57, down 0.36%. Trading volume reached 86.96 million shares, well above average, signaling elevated participation and heightened emotion. Despite the selloff in metals and technology, SPY never threatened the critical $685 level, reinforcing once again that bulls continue to defend that zone with precision.

Major Indices Performance
Losses were broad but uneven across the major indices. The Nasdaq fell 0.94%, weighed down by continued pressure in technology. The Dow declined 0.36%, while the Russell 2000 dropped 1.50%, highlighting renewed caution toward small-cap stocks. The S&P 500 also finished lower, though losses remained contained relative to recent volatility.

Notable Stock Movements
It was one of the most broadly negative sessions for the Magnificent Seven in recent weeks. Most names finished red, led lower by Meta, which fell as much as 2.95%. Tesla was the lone bright spot, rising as much as 3.32% and providing limited support to the broader tech complex. Sustained weakness across both megacap technology and crypto would be required to signal a deeper market pullback.

Commodity and Cryptocurrency Updates
Commodities experienced a dramatic reversal. Crude oil rose 0.61% to $65.82, continuing to trade well above the $60 level our model has been forecasting for several months. As long as crude holds above $56, the path toward $70 remains open despite near-term volatility. Precious metals, however, collapsed. Gold plunged 9.25% to $4,859, while silver suffered one of its most violent selloffs on record, snapping a historic rally. Bitcoin fell 0.69% to close above $83,902, reflecting continued pressure in speculative assets but stopping short of a full breakdown.

Treasury Yield Information
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.76% to close near 4.260%, adding incremental pressure to equities. In our framework, yields above 4.5% begin to create meaningful headwinds for stocks, while sustained trade above 4.8% often coincides with sharper selloffs. A move above 5% historically signals significant equity risk, with a 20% or greater correction becoming likely near 5.2%. Friday’s move higher warrants monitoring but has not yet disrupted the broader trend.

Previous Day’s Forecast Analysis
Thursday’s framework emphasized that volatility would remain elevated but that as long as SPY held above $685, bulls would retain control. We noted that failed breakouts near resistance and sharp intraday reversals were likely.

Market Performance vs. Forecast
Friday’s action aligned with that outlook. SPY experienced a sharp intraday selloff but found buyers near $687 and never tested $685. The recovery off the lows once again reinforced the reliability of that support zone.

Premarket Analysis Summary
In Friday’s premarket notes published at 7:25 AM, SPY was trading near $691.54 with a key bias level at $692.80. Upside targets were outlined at $694.30 and $697.75, while downside risk was centered near $688. The plan favored upside continuation as long as support held, while acknowledging that exogenous catalysts could drive overshoots.

Validation of the Analysis
The session validated that framework. SPY failed to clear the bias level, sold off toward $687, and then rebounded as anticipated. While upside targets were not reached, the expectation of support holding proved correct.

Looking Ahead
Monday brings ISM data, followed by JOLTS on Tuesday, ADP and ISM on Wednesday, Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and a heavy labor report on Friday. Macro data will return to the forefront as markets digest the implications of a potential shift in Fed leadership.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels
Sentiment remains cautiously bullish despite the sharp shakeout. SPY continues to trade above $685, keeping bulls in control. Resistance sits at $694, $695, $698, and $700, while support rests at $690, $688, $685, and $683. The $698–$700 zone remains heavily defended and favors failed-breakout setups.

Expected Price Action
SPY’s projected maximum range for Monday is $683 to $699, with the Put side dominating in a wide and expanding band that signals trending price action with intermittent chop. PMI is unlikely to move the needle materially.

Trading Strategy
As long as SPY holds above $687–$685, longs remain favored on pullbacks. Shorts are preferred on failed breakouts near $698–$700. With volatility elevated and February historically prone to surprise selloffs, discipline and patience remain critical.

Model’s Projected Range
SPY’s projected maximum range for Monday is $683 to $699, with the Put side dominating in a wide and expanding band that signals trending price action with intermittent chop. Monday brings PMI, which is unlikely to move the needle. PPI came in much hotter than expected and may have contributed to today’s decline, but the damage was limited with SPY finishing down just -0.03% at $691.97. The market did not test $685, but buyers stepped in at $687, once again reinforcing the theme we have repeated for weeks that above $685 the bulls control the market. The pullback likely reflects macro noise or simple fatigue after a strong run, as the market consolidates before its next push higher, with $700 still firmly in play despite geopolitical headlines remaining a wildcard. Overnight SPY gapped lower, tested $687, and reversed, opening near $692 before fading by midday and selling off into early afternoon, only to reverse again and reclaim $690. Bulls continue to support price with remarkable consistency, stepping in almost on command. As long as SPY holds above $685, the path toward $700 remains intact, though volume was well above average, which raises some concern about the durability of the trend heading into next week. Over the weekend, bulls ideally want to hold above $690, with $687 as the worst-case line to maintain upside momentum, while bears are unlikely to engage unless $685 fails and even then would need a break of $680 to generate meaningful downside pressure. If $687 holds, another attempt toward $700 is likely, though a strong catalyst may be required to clear that level. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640, and with February historically prone to surprise selloffs, any deeper pullback should be viewed as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity for a spring or summer rally. Absent a catalyst, resistance sits at $694, $695, $698, and $700, while support is at $690, $688, $685, and $683. The $698–$700 zone remains heavily defended, favoring failed-breakout shorts, while longs are still favored above $687. Crypto sold off again today and most MAG stocks declined, with the exception of Netflix, Apple, and Tesla, and sustained weakness across both groups would be required for a larger pullback. VIX rose 3.32% to 17.44, remaining in risk-on territory but edging closer to neutral. SPY closed inside a redrawn bull trend channel from the April lows, with structural support near $682.

Market State Indicator (MSI) Forecast

Current Market State Overview:
The MSI ended the session in wide, Ranging Market State with SPY closing mid-range. There were no extended targets at the close and only a few briefly as SPY reached $687. Overnight the MSI rescaled to a bearish market state and then to a ranging state so by the open, SPY was ready to do nothing but move mostly sideways. But around noon, the MSI began a series of rescalings lower and higher but always in a bearish state which underlined the weakness of the decline. After extended targets stopped printing after 1 pm, the MSI rescaled higher but still in a bearish state which saw some attempts to test the lows again which failed. Finally, by 2 pm the MSI was back to where it stated in a wide ranging state where it ended the day. For Monday the MSI forecasts choppy trading which could test both sides of the MSI. MSI resistance is $695.15 with support at $690.49.
Key Levels and Market Movements:
Thursday we stated, “The primary trend remains bullish as long as SPY holds above $685, and even after a selloff of more than 1.5%, the bulls stepped in and defended that level once again,” and added, “The bias for Friday favors selling failed breakouts above $697 and buying dips down to $685,” while also noting, “Expect choppy trading and let the MSI determine the intraday trend as it rescales.” With the MSI opening in a wide Ranging State, there was little to do during the morning session as SPY chopped around in a broad range. By noon the MSI began to move lower, but conditions remained difficult with very narrow MSI ranges that moved both up and down quickly. This made the session hard to trade until SPY finally reached the overnight low near $687 and put in a failed breakdown. With no extended targets below, the correct trade was to buy the dip and ride price back to MSI resistance into the close. This was the only clean and actionable setup of the day and it was identified by following the premarket levels, post-market roadmap, and MSI signals within our established framework for structure, trend, and execution. Once again, the MSI proved its reliability as the cornerstone of our trading process.
Trading Strategy Based on MSI:
Monday has only PMI, which is unlikely to do much. But it is a weekend, and there is an “armada” sitting on Iran’s doorstep, so anything can happen. Be conscious of these global events, as they could shape the market next week and beyond. Absent an external catalyst, the primary trend remains bullish as long as SPY holds above $685, and the bulls continue to step in and defend that level. This reinforces what we have said for weeks: above $685, the bulls have full control, and the bears struggle to gain traction. A sustained hold above $695 opens the door for a push toward $700 and potentially higher. The bias for Monday favors selling failed breakouts above $695 and buying dips down to $685. Expect choppy price action initially, followed by trending periods, and let the MSI determine the intraday trend as it rescales. For the bears to regain any meaningful traction, SPY must break below $680 and remain there. The long-term bull trend remains intact above $640. Failed breakouts and failed breakdowns continue to offer the highest-probability setups, so remain flexible, avoid trading during Ranging Market States, and ensure all trades are fully aligned with MSI signals. Providing real-time insights into market control, momentum shifts, and actionable levels, the MSI when integrated with our Pre-Market and Post-Market Reports continues to sharpen execution precision and elevate trade quality. If you haven’t yet integrated MSI and our model levels into your process, now is the time. Contact your representative to get started as these tools are designed to support consistency and enhance performance.

Dealer Positioning Analysis

Dealers are selling SPY $697 to $715 and higher strike Calls while buying $692 to $696 Calls indicating the Dealers’ desire to participate in any rally on Monday. The ceiling for Monday appears to be $698. To the downside, Dealers are buying $691 to $635 and lower strike Puts in a 3:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling/buying displaying some concern that prices could move lower. Dealer positioning is unchanged from neutral/slightly bearish to neutral/slightly bearish.
Looking Ahead to Next Friday:
Dealers are selling SPY $696 to $720 and higher strike Calls while buying $692 to $695 Calls indicating the Dealers’ desire to participate in any rally next week. The ceiling for the week appears to be $699. To the downside, Dealers are buying $691 to $585 and lower strike Puts in a 4:1 ratio to the Calls they’re selling, reflecting a market that is a slightly concerned about lower prices but not overly so. For the week Dealer positioning is unchanged from slightly bearish to slightly bearish. We advise reviewing Dealer positioning daily for directional clues. These positions evolve quickly and tracking them is essential for staying ahead of shifting market sentiment.

Recommendation for Traders
Into Monday, respect the bullish structure but remain selective. Favor buying pullbacks that hold above $687 and selling failed breakouts near $698–$700. Avoid trading during choppy, non-trending conditions and let structure and confirmation guide execution rather than headlines.

Good luck and good trading!